As predicted, Putin is fast ramping up his war with Ukraine as the anti-Putin marches in Moscow begin to swell.As reported by Maria Tsvetkova and Gleb Stolyarov,
"Tens of thousands of Russians staged what a monitoring group called the country’s biggest political protest for eight years on Saturday, defying a crackdown to demand free elections to Moscow’s city legislature.
......
A month of demonstrations over elections for the Moscow city legislature have turned into the biggest sustained protest movement in Russia since 2011-2013, when protesters took to the streets against perceived electoral fraud." (Reuters : 9 August 2019) (my emphasis)
Whilst Putin was severely cracking down on protestors in Moscow and St. Petersburg, UNIAN reports that,
"The enemy was shelling our units' positions, using 82mm mortars, which are banned under the Minsk agreements, as well as grenade launchers of various systems, large-caliber machine-guns, and rifles," the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said on Facebook in a morning update on August 11." (UNIAN : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)
And to further show Zelenskiy exactly who is boss,
"Ukraine has protested to Russia after a leather-clad President Vladimir Putin visited the annexed Crimean peninsula to attend a bikers' festival.
Its foreign ministry described Saturday's visit as a "blatant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty".
Ukraine said attempts by Moscow and its media to present such visits as routine were "pathetic". (BBC: 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)
This escalation by Putin of his war with Ukraine has led to a flurry of diplomatic activity.
UNIAN reports that,"Representatives of the United States [Kurt Volker (left)], Germany, France plan to soon hold consultations on the Normandy format, involving Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia." (UNIAN : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)
What is disconcerting is that,
"President of France Emmanuel Macron assured Volodymyr Zelensky he would push the issue related to death of four Marines in Normandy group meetings. The issue will be discussed during the meeting between Macron and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on August 19
Macron will meet the President of the Russian Federation on the south of the country in Fort de Brégançon castle in French Riviera. This castle is the French presidents’ summer residence" (112 International :7 August 2019) (my emphasis)Now recall that in April of this year, just prior to Ukraine's presidential elections, Poroshenko met with Merkel and Macron.
As Vladimir Socor (left) subsequently reported,
" ...Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020).
Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that :-
- (1) the withdrawal of Russian forces,
- (2) disarmament of local proxy forces and
- (3) restoration of Ukrainian control along the border,
According to Mr. Poroshenko, the French president (Emmanuel Macron) regards Ukraine’s presidential election as “opening a window of opportunity” for the Minsk and Normandy processes to advance along those lines." (Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April 2019) (my emphasis)
"U.S. President Donald Trump admits the possibility of receiving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House "very soon".
Also, Trump expressed confidence in Zelenskiy willing to take action on reaching peace in Donbas and to make a deal with Russia in this regard.
"He's going to make a deal with President Putin. […] He is a reasonable guy. He wants to see peace in Ukraine. I think he'll be coming very soon," he said. (UNIAN : 9 August 2019) (my emphasis)
As I wrote in an earlier blog entry (18 June 2019),
"Zelenskiy will be confronting Putin, with Merkel and Macron ostensibly supporting him whilst they are, in effect, giving Putin exactly what he wants viz. his Russian soldiers and proxies in absolute control of the Donbas whilst elections there are held.
How, now, can Trump be so sure that Zelenskiy will make a deal with Putin, especially in light of Putin's recent escalation of his war with Ukraine?
The pressure on Zelenskiy is mounting.
Merkel, and in particular Macron, want to get rid of "the monkey of Putin's war with Ukraine" from off their back as the EU lurches towards an economic downturn.
As Wolfgang Münchau (right) reports,"The EU has only recently emerged from a decade-long crisis and is now facing an economic downturn, a global currency war, a technology shock in the car sector, possibly a no-deal Brexit and an Italian government crisis.
...
The EU is at risk of a vicious circle during the next downturn or financial crisis. It would then become rational for voters and political parties to look at national alternatives to European integration." (Financial Times : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)
Putin, similarly, is facing a deepening economic crisis of his own because of his total dependency on the price of oil as a means of cauterizing the swell of demonstrations that are mounting against him and his 'siloviki'.
As reported by Stephanie Kelly (left),
"Oil falls 3% as trade war concerns hit demand outlookGlobal oil benchmark Brent futures fell more than 3% on Monday on global growth concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump last week threatened China with more tariffs, which could limit crude demand from the world’s two biggest buyers." (Reuters : 5 August 2019) (my emphasis)
This fall in the price of oil, and the economic downturn that is facing the EU, will be the 'elephants in the room' at the upcoming Normandy format meeting between Zelenskiy, Putin, Merkel, and Macron.
It will be the 'elephants in the room' that will force the emasculation of the Minsk2 protocols by Macron and Merkel in favour of Putin and against the people of Ukraine.
Zelenskiy will be facing his greatest test at the next Normany Four meeting to discuss the Minsk2 proposals.
APPENDIX : MINSK2 AGREEMENT
1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment
as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.
2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on
minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70
kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S,
Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in
accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the
ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided
from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with
the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts
of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved
by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the
law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in
the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation
to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This
process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international
mechanism.
8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as
payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax
payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the
conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.
9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on
the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts
of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on
the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular
districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine
under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of
which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,
agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of
particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached
footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and
Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of
particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be
held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the
implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral
Contact Group.
(The high-lighted points (2, 9, and 10) are what are now regarded by Merkel and Macron as mere aspirations)
Added to which, we have Putin showering the Donbas with Russian passports for the Ukrainian residents under the occupation of his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies.
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