Is Putin cornered? What, then, will he do?

Dmitry Zaks on Saturday Jan 10, reported that,

Dmitry Zaks

"Ukraine fended off renewed financial pressure from Russia on Saturday by accusing Moscow of orchestrating rebel attacks that killed two soldiers and heightened tensions ahead of mooted international peace talks.

The stakes between Moscow and Kiev have been rising since Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko surprised many at the end of December by announcing plans to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin at a mini-summit in the Kazakh capital Astana on Thursday." (AFP (Agence France Press) : Jan 10 2014)

Furthermore that the,

" ... most immediate danger facing Kiev is the prospect of Moscow demanding the early payment of $3 billion (2.5 billion euros) it had lent former president Viktor Yanukovych in December 2013 to convince him to ditch an EU alliance and side with the Kremlin instead." (ibid Dmitri Zaks) (my emphasis)

Yulia Silena

Even more worrying is the fact that,

"[i]ntense fighting erupted around east Ukraine's main rebel-held city on Sunday that wrecked a power station and briefly trapped more than 300 coal miners in one of Europe's largest pits.
Repeated rounds of rocket and mortar fire echoed across snow-covered Donetsk on Sunday evening despite a formal truce in the nine-month war."( Yulia Silena : Agence France Press (AFP: 12 Jan 2015)

It would seem that the strategy of Putin, ahead of the Berlin meeting today between  the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, Russia and Germany, is to:

•  use his demand for early payment of money lent to Yanukovich (cf. Dmitry Zaks) and
•  use the eruption of fighting between his proxies in Donetsk and the Ukrainian army

                       Klimkin (Ukraine)              Fabius (France)            Lavrov (Russia)           Steinmeier (Germany)

(a) as 'bargaining' chips
               OR
(b) to ensure that the proposed meeting in Astana on the 15 Jan 2015 between himself, Poroshenko,  Merkel, and Hollande DOES NOT GO AHEAD.



Furthermore, the escalating of fighting in Donetsk yesterday (11/1/2015) seems to be aimed directly at bolstering the call of Hollande that the sanctions against Russia should now be withdrawn.



At the same time it would seem as though Steinmeir and Merkel may be closing ranks.

Both of them are now

" .... pushing for progress on implementing a much-violated peace deal that was drawn up in Minsk in September. Berlin says a substantial narrowing of differences is needed for a summit to take place." (AP (Associated Press) : 12/1/2015) (my emphasis)

This attitude of  Merkel is best illustrated when she welcomed the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, with full military honours, on the 8 Jan 2015, and spelt out that,

" ... All points of the Minsk Agreement must be fulfilled, even though some of them would not immediately be met." (DW : jr/msh (Reuters, AFP, AP) : 08.01.2015) (my emphasis)

It would therefore seem that Merkel is throwing down the gauntlet to Putin. And it is possibly this attitude of Merkel that Putin is trying to break with his demand for the early payment of the loan given to Yanukovich, as well as  ramping up the fighting of his proxies in eastern Ukraine against the Ukrainian army.

Poroshenko seems to have somewhat pre-empted this belligerent move of Putin since,

"Ukraine's Ministry of Defense plans to bolster its military by calling up some 50,000 people during a new wave of mobilization, the ministry's spokesperson Viktoria Kushnir said Tuesday.
"About 50,000 people will be called up, including […]reservists, officers, and soldiers doing their compulsory service," Kushnir announced during a press briefing." (Sputnik : 23.12.2014)

Coupled with this is the fact that,


"According to Poroshenko, Ukraine's military forces are 100 percent equipped, while several months ago the army only had 20 percent of the needed supplies." ( KyivPost : Jan. 5, 2015)




What we therefore have is that:

• Merkel is throwing down the gauntlet to Putin
• the Ukrainian army is readied to face Putin's military machine in eastern Ukraine
• Putin is being forced to try to scupper the upcoming Astana meeting on the 15 Jan so that he does not have to be seen to have buckled under the weight of the collapsing Russian economy
• his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has to throw as many spanners as he can muster into the foreign ministers meeting between Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia on the 12 Jan in Berlin (today), so that Putin can have a 'diplomatic' argument  for not attending the Astana meeting

Perhaps, as Evgenia Pismennaya and Irina Reznik point out,

Shadkhan and Putin

"While Putin doesn’t share Stalin’s totalitarian impulses, he does have a similar understanding and sense of fear, according to the filmmaker [ Igor Shadkhan].
“Stalin exterminated people out of fear because he was afraid of being betrayed if he eased his grip on power,” he said. “Putin is also scared. He’s a human being and has many reasons to be scared.”
Sooner or later, though, Shadkhan said Putin will have to overcome that fear and realize he must step down." (Bloomberg : 2013-08-27)

What is rather disconcerting is that  Putin told Shadkhan that,

" ...  totalitarianism isn’t something that can be imposed from the top in Russia because it’s “embedded in our own people’s mentality.” Shadkhan said he’d now like to ask Putin who’s “to blame for the resurrection of the authoritarian regime? The people?” (ibid Evgenia Pismennaya and Irina Reznik)

It is two years since this article was written and we can now see that just as Putin assumes that totalitarianism is 'embedded in the minds of the Russian people', then it must also be embedded in his own mind.

It would therefore seem that just like Stalin, Putin would have no qualms in dispensing with those around him who may even just hint at betraying him. 

Maybe, therefore, Gorbachev is correct in

" ... accusing [Putin] in a recent book of overconfidence and believing himself to be “second only to God”.  (Justin Huggler : The Telegraph : 11 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

More importantly, maybe he is also correct in saying that,

""We won't survive the coming years if someone loses their nerve in this overheated situation". ... "This is not something I'm saying thoughtlessly. I am extremely concerned." (Reuters : Fri Jan 9, 2015)


(to be continued)

Putin's critical week of decisions ......

The flurry of diplomatic activity on Friday raised the hopes of many people that we may be entering the beginning of the end of the war between Ukraine and Russia. As Ian Traynor reported,

In a flurry of diplomatic activity German and Ukrainian leaders met in Berlin and the Latvian foreign minister headed to Kiev and Moscow. Momentum gathered behind a proposed summit in Kazakhstan next week between the Russian, Ukrainian and French presidents and the German chancellor." (The Guardian : Thursday 8 January 2015)"

Even the 'fragrant" Mogherini could not contain her excitement.

“The situation on the ground is slightly better than some months ago,” she said. “ There seems to be a different Russian attitude … I hope this is part of a new time, a new era.", she has said. (ibid The Guardian)"

But to-day is another day, and that false dawn of hope that was had yesterday rather seems to have evaporated.

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel received Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is in Berlin to hold informal talks focusing on bilateral cooperation and the crisis in Ukraine." (Ukraine Today (UT) :  Jan. 10, 2015) 

 Interestingly,

"Humanitarian aid from Kazakhstan has arrived to Ukraine, Tengrinews reports citing the press office of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Kazakhstan. It is planned to complete the shipment of 300 tons of cargo by January 10. " (Gyuzel Kamalova: Tengri News : 9 January 2015)

This must be somewhat sticking in the  craw of Putin since it is sending a strong message from Nazarbayev that he fully supports Ukraine.

Meanwhile Walter Steinmeier, Foreign Minister of Germany, has organised a meeting of the foreign ministers of  France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, who will meet in Berlin on Monday (January 12) to discuss the situation in eastern Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk protocol, the German foreign ministry said on Friday." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

      Klimkin (Ukraine)              Fabius (France)            Lavrov (Russia)           Steinmeier (Germany)

"We want to do everything possible to allow political compromises that would help ease the situation in eastern Ukraine,” Steinmeier said in a written statement on Friday, following a teleconference with his Russian, Ukrainian and French counterparts, who he said have all accepted the invitation." (World Bulletin : 10 January 2015 Saturday) (my emphasis)

Now it is common knowledge that Steinmeier, unlike Merkel,  desperately wants to end the sanctions against Russia, and that the rift between the two of them over the issue of Ukraine is becoming more and more public.

After all Merkel, on the 7th January, is NOT calling for compromises but for Putin to,

" .... "[implement] all 12 points in the peace plan ......... before the European Union could consider easing sanctions against Russia." (ibid UT)

Steinmeier wants 'political compromises' whereas Merkel wants Putin to FULLY implement the Minsk Proposals.

Both Steinmeier and the 'fragarant' Mogherini, together with Hollande, can thus be seen to be leading the brigade in the EU to have the current sanctions against Putin's Russia withdrawn. 

And coming over the hill to support them we now have Mikhail Gorbachev.

"In an interview with the German weekly newsmagazine Der Spiegel, 83-year-old former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said the crisis in Ukraine could lead to large-scale war in Europe or even a nuclear war. "We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension."
The Nobel Peace Prize laureate decried the "loss of trust" between Russia and the West as "catastrophic," and said ties must be "defrosted." (Deutsche Welle (DW) : 09.01.2015)

Bear in mind that Gorbachev,

"defended the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula last year, but criticized the Russian leader's authoritarian style of leadership." (ibid DW) (my emphasis)

whilst at the same time chastising both Germany and the West for ostensibly being part of the problem.

• "The new Germany wants its hands in every pie. There seems to be a lot of people who want to be involved in a new division of Europe. (ibid DW)
• He said Western attempts to disempower Russian President Vladimir Putin and destabilize Russia were "very stupid and extremely dangerous." (ibid DW)

What this sudden outburst of Gorbachev may be telling us is that the economic situation inside of Putin's Russia may be more dire than we can imagine.

As  Sujata Rao reports,

"Russia's credit rating looks set to tumble into junk for the first time in more than a decade, a move that would exclude its bonds from a couple of high-profile indexes and may set off another wave of capital outflows.
The Fitch agency cut its rating on Russia to 'BBB minus' from 'BBB' on Friday, citing a significant deterioration in the country's economic outlook due to the slump in oil prices and falling value of the rouble." (LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters)) (my emphasis)

 
 
It is therefore no coincidence that,

"Poroshenko and Merkel are to meet in Paris today where world leaders are gathering for a freedom march following this weeks tragic event in France." (TASS : January 11)

“Petro Poroshenko and Angela Merkel have agreed that a brief meeting aimed at co-ordinating the efforts to settle the Donbass crisis will be held in Paris on January 11,” the press service said. “Both leaders will take part in a unity march initiated by French President Francois Hollande to remember victims of the terrorist attacks.” (ibid TASS)

The fact that this meeting will be taking place today, together with the fact that there will be a foreign minister's meeting in Berlin to-morrow that will include that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov, may be indicative of the fact that Putin's 'room for manoeuvre' is now vanishingly small.

Is it Gorbachev's fear that Putin may now 'lash out', and that this could

" .... lead to large-scale war in Europe or even a nuclear war. "We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension."? (ibid DW) (my emphasis)

Is this fear also causing Ukraine to have a new wave of mobilization?

And following on the heels of all this diplomatic 'flurry' in Europe, as reported by Sputnik News (11.01.2015),

"Obama and Cameron are set to meet for a working dinner on January 15, and hold talks in the Oval Office on January 16."

Furthermore,

"The meeting between Obama and Cameron is scheduled to take place at a time when Russian and German leaders will also be meeting in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana to look for a way out of the crisis in eastern Ukraine." (ibid Sputnik News) (my emphasis)

Cameron                                                      Obama

This coming week will be a week of 'critical' decisions about the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia.

Was Merkel correct when she told Obama by telephone that,

" ...  after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said. " (Peter Baker : The New York Times: March 3, 2014)

 Is Gorbachev referring to Putin when he says that,

"We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension." (ibid DW)

(to be continued)

Is there a Putin breakthrough? The current diplomatic flurry ...

"Russia faces the 'perfect storm' as reserves vanish and derivatives flash default warnings.

So ran the heading in the Daily Telegraph (06 Jan 2015)

In his article Ambrose Evans-Pritchard wrote that,

"There are signs that Russia’s crisis may undermine President Vladimir’s Putin’s Eurasian Economic Union before it has got off the ground. Belarus’s Alexander Lukashenko is already insisting that trade be carried out in US dollars, while Kazakhstan’s Nursultan Nazarbayev warned that the Russian crash poses a “major risk” to the new venture." (The Telegraph : 06 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

And now, as reported by Ian Traynor, we hear that,

"EU leaders have talked up the prospects of a breakthrough with President Vladimir Putin over Ukraine amid a divisive debate over whether to ease or lift European sanctions on Russia." 

Furthermore that,

"In a flurry of diplomatic activity German and Ukrainian leaders met in Berlin and the Latvian foreign minister headed to Kiev and Moscow. Momentum gathered behind a proposed summit in Kazakhstan next week between the Russian, Ukrainian and French presidents and the German chancellor." (The Guardian : Thursday 8 January 2015)

All this flurry of diplomatic activity even has the  'fragrant' Mogherini rather extremely excited.

“The situation on the ground is slightly better than some months ago,” she said. “ There seems to be a different Russian attitude … I hope this is part of a new time, a new era.", she has said. (ibid Ian Traynor)

But lest we begin to get our hopes up that the scheduled 15th January meeting between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin will take place, and that we will see the beginning of the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine; 

it is interesting to note that Merkel is still slightly sceptical that Putin will begin to fully implement those (Trojan) Minsk Proposals, whilst Hollande, together with a long queue of Putin's supporters in the EU, simply want those sanctions against Russia to cease. The greatest fear of  Putin's EU supporters is that the possible collapse of the Russian economy will also cause unimaginable harm to the Euro and their individual economies, as well as to the economies of other EU states. Even more worrying for them is that if Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clan should fall from power, who will replace them?

Benjamin Bidder

In September of 2014 Benjamin Bidder, Moscow correspondent for the German news weekly Der Spiegel, concluded that,

" ... the democrats [in Russia] have little chance of replacing Putin and that his successor is likely to be worse. "It takes little fantasy to imagine Putin’s political end. He cannot be voted out of office like his friend Gerhard Schröder. Two scenarios are possible: either the current political elite in the Kremlin installs a successor or the Russians get rid of Putin and his minions…." (World Affairs : 22 September 2014)

But perhaps we should pay attention to what George Soros recently said regarding the current situation between Russia, Ukraine, the EU and the US.

As reported by Reuters (Jan 8 2015),

"Billionaire financier George Soros has urged the West to step up aid to Ukraine, outlining steps towards a $50 billion financing package that he said should be viewed as a bulwark against an increasingly aggressive Russia." 

And just recently,

"[Germany and Ukraine] announced on Wednesday the final approval of a nearly $600 million German loan, described by officials as "an important contribution" to rebuilding war-torn eastern Ukraine.

The loan, promised earlier by Merkel, was contingent on Kyiv's commitment to widespread economic reforms, some of which have already been enacted by Ukraine's new parliament." (VoA : January 07, 2015) (my emphasis)

George Soros further states that,

"Europe needs to wake up and recognize that it is under attack from Russia," the Hungarian-born hedge fund magnate wrote (full article here). "Assisting Ukraine should also be considered as a defense expenditure by the European Union countries." (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

The concern of Soros is one that is also echoed by Julia Tymoshenko.

"So, in 2015, the resolve that Europe and the United States have shown in opposing Putin’s designs must not only be maintained; it must be hardened. Yet, sadly, there have been signs of slackening Western commitment. The European Commission’s agreement in September to postpone full implementation of Ukraine’s association agreement with the European Union – the agreement that Ukrainians fought and died for in Kyiv last winter – signaled to Putin that cunning, force, and intimidation can win Western acquiescence in his subjugation of Ukraine and theft of Crimea." (Julia Tymoshenko : JBN : 7 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

There have been many 'false dawns' of a breathrough in stopping the war between Russia and Ukraine. Remember those Trojan Minsk Proposals of last September? The 'fragrant' Mogherini may be ecstatic with excitement but bear in mind that her excitement is that she can now openly aid Putin, her idol, in completely lifting the EU sanctions against him.

“ ..... limited but positive” signals from the Russians in recent weeks over the conflict in eastern Ukraine and raised the possibility of lifting EU sanctions “partially or fully” (ibid Ian Traynor)

In the case of the 'fragrant' Mogherini, I am somewhat reminded of the old saying,

"Oh! What a tangled web we weave

 When first we practice to deceive ..."

(to be continued) 

Merkel and Ukraine 2015

 

Julia Tymoshenko has, rather succinctly, summed up the Trojan nature of the Minsk Protocol, upon which Angela Merkel is pinning all her hopes in bringing and end to the war between Ukraine and Russia.

She says that,


"No one should believe that the Minsk Protocol – agreed in September by representatives of Ukraine, Russia, and the Kremlin-backed armed militants in the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk – marked the beginning of a return to normalcy in either Ukraine or Europe. Under that agreement, Ukraine’s government ceded de facto control of the Donbas region, supposedly for only three years, to Russia’s hired secessionists. But this imported hybrid war – and Russia’s bid to carve up Ukraine – is far from over." (Jewish Business News (JBN): Wed, Jan 7th, 2015) (my emphasis)

She further stated that,

"On the contrary, the Minsk Protocol marked only the end of the beginning of Putin’s program to turn Ukraine into a vassal state, and to restore a Russian veto over its neighbors’ international relations. His efforts to thwart Ukraine’s European future will continue, as will his efforts to hollow out our democracy and replace it with a Kremlin echo chamber, unless the world imposes such a high price for his imperial ambitions that the Russian people refuse to bear it." (ibid JBN) (my emphasis)

And, as I stated yesterday,

"But it is not only Merkel who fears a collapse of the Putin's economy. Behind her is a long queue of EU members [and EU MEP's], INCLUDING HOLLANDE, calling for,

" .... an easing or lifting of the sanctions on Russia, which have hit its banks, energy industry and arms manufacturers, as well as targeting powerful figures close to Mr Putin. Politicians in Italy, Hungary and Slovakia are among those who want the sanctions eased." (BBC News : 5 January 2015)


In other words, Germany, France, Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, amongst other EU presidents and MEP's, are rapidly moving away from "imposing upon Putin a high price for his imperial ambitions that the Russian people [will] refuse to bear"

Even Merkel herself, who has been dubbed the "Chancellor of Europe", has her hands tied by her SDP coalition partners (especially Walter Steinmeister, her SDP Foreign Minister), German businessmen, and Putin's supporters in the EU. Yet, as Andrew Marr says in the video clip below,

"Germany .... with the most clout on the continent" (7 January, 2014). And Timothy Garton Ash of Oxford University goes so far as to say that Putin respects and fears her even above Barak Obama.

But is this really so? Are neither of these men aware of the implications for Merkel's political position in Germany of the rapidly growing German right-wing populist movement, Pegida? Practically the whole German political establishment have been rudely awoken from their cosy political slumber by Pegida. Even German Justice Minister Heiko Maas (in centre of picture) and Berlin's Integration Senator Dilek Kolat (on the right) joined the demonstration in Berlin to protest against a rally by the mounting right-wing populist movement.

 And right-wing movements are spreading in ALL EU countries.

All of this is music to Putin's ears, to which so many European politicians are turning a deaf ear.

Julia Tymoshenko is correct when she says that,

" Yet, sadly, there have been signs of slackening Western commitment. The European Commission’s agreement in September to postpone full implementation of Ukraine’s association agreement with the European Union – the agreement that Ukrainians fought and died for in Kyiv last winter – signaled to Putin that cunning, force, and intimidation can win Western acquiescence in his subjugation of Ukraine and theft of Crimea." (ibid JBN)

Putin does not need to ramp up his propaganda machine to influence the European public. The right-wing forces in Europe are doing it for him. Millions of Euros have been 'lent' to Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale'. What is the betting that the rise of Pegida in Germany may also be secretly funded by Putin?  Remember that during his former years in Germany he was based in Dresden where, 

" ... [a]round 18,000 people have taken part in an anti-Islam rally in the German city of Dresden despite a plea by Chancellor Angela Merkel to reject the growing protests, which she has branded racist." (Sky News : Wednesday 07 January 2015)

Rather belatedly is the EU only now beginning to try to counter the Putin propaganda machine. 

As Kashmira Gander reports,

"The UK is among European Union (EU) member states to have informally backed a Russian-language TV station run by the bloc, to combat “very aggressive” propaganda in Russian media, according a senior Latvian politician. The European TV channel would feature entertainment as well as “very factually accurate news”, and should not be another propaganda tool, Edgars Rinkēvičs, the foreign minister of Latvia, told BuzzFeed News in an interview." (The Independent : Wednesday 07 January 2015)
But is this too little too late? 

"As Rita Ruduša, the commissioning editor for news, current affairs, and documentaries at LatvianTelevision, admitted to BuzzFeed News that it is difficult to compete with Russian channels which spend more on a single prime-time programme than public broadcaster spends on Russian-language programming in total." (ibid The Independent) (my emphasis)

 
This rather underscores how Julia Tymoshenko sees the coming year viz.

"...Ukraine’s ability to resist, and the international community’s ability to prevent brute force from having free rein, depends on whether world leaders understand that appeasement begets only further aggression. If they do not, 2015 could mark the return of a European and world order that was supposedly overcome seven decades ago." (idid JBN)

(to be continued)

Poroshenko's 15th January Astana summit in jeopardy

Merkel and Hollande have cast some doubt on whether the proposed summit meeting to be held in Astana on the 15th January will, in fact, take place.

Steffen Seibert

Merkel's spokesman, Steffen Seibert, said,

"I can't say yet if and when such a meeting will take place. Such a meeting only makes sense if we can make real progress."

"We have a very clear idea of what constitutes real progress. This would be first and foremost achieving the full implementation of the Minsk peace accord and a genuine and lasting ceasefire ..." (Andrew Callus : Reuters : Yahoo News : 5-1-2014) (my emphasis)

Hollande was slightly more optimistic, stating on France Inter radio that,

"I will go to Astana on the 15th of January on one condition, which is that there should be a possibility of making new progress. If it's just to meet and talk without making any actual advances then there's no point. But I think there will be progress." (ibid Andrew Callus) (my emphasis)

Merkel is doubtful whether Putin is willing to allow himself to be held to his Trojan 'Minsk Peace Protocols'. Hollande, on the other hand, is simply looking for some progress on the 'impasse' between Putin, Poroshenko, the EU, Canada, and the US, regarding the situation in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian Crimea.

It should be remembered that the 'follow up additions' to the Minsk Protocols calls for,

• To pull heavy weaponry 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) back on each side of the line of contact, creating a 30-kilometre (19 mi) buffer zone
• To ban offensive operations
• To ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone
• To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone
• To set up an OSCE mission to monitor implementation of Minsk Protocol (Wikipedia)

In so many words, this is telling Putin to withdraw his army from eastern Ukraine, bearing in mind that Patriarch Kirill just recently mentioning 'historic Rus', which actually refers to,

".... the Medieval Kyivan Rus state, which incorporates parts of modern day Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. The state existed from the 9th Century to the 13th Century, before Moscow was even founded." (Ukraine Today : Jan. 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

What, then, is really behind Merkel pouring 'cold water' over the proposed 'Normandy Group' summit meeting in Astana on the 15th January? 

Fear about the collapsing Russian economy, and what would be left in its wake if more sanctions against Putin's Russia should emerge if the proposed meeting in Astana is a complete FAILURE. 

And yesterday, 
 

"The US oil price fell below the symbolic threshold of $50 a barrel for the first time since April 2009, before finishing the day at $50.05.

The price of Brent crude also fell on Monday, dipping 6% to $53 a barrel." (BBC News : 5 January 2015 Last updated at 22:06)
  
Not only on the oil front, but also on the rouble front, prices are once again falling. Russian consumers are now beginning to experience emptying shelves in their supermarkets because of the current sanctions and the falling price of the rouble. (Will Stewart In Moscow for MailOnline : 5 January 2015)

Even Russia's super rich are beginning to feel the pinch as the rouble continues to fall.

"It looks like a glittering golden palace fit for a Russian tsar, and its appearance on the Moscow property market is perhaps a sign of the crisis facing the super-rich amdist the rouble's collapse" (ibid Will Stewart)

But it is not only Merkel who fears a collapse of the Putin's economy. Behind her is a long queue of EU members, INCLUDING HOLLANDE, calling for,

" .... an easing or lifting of the sanctions on Russia, which have hit its banks, energy industry and arms manufacturers, as well as targeting powerful figures close to Mr Putin. Politicians in Italy, Hungary and Slovakia are among those who want the sanctions eased." (BBC News : 5 January 2015)

Similarly, Sigmar Gabriel, Germany's vice-chancellor,

"- a centre-left politician like Mr Hollande - said the sanctions were aimed at making Russia negotiate to resolve the Ukraine conflict. But some "forces" in Europe and the US wanted sanctions to cripple Russia, which would "risk a conflagration".
"We want to help get the Ukraine conflict resolved, but not to push Russia onto its knees," he told Bild am Sonntag newspaper." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

 Interesting that he does not mention who these ," some "forces" in Europe" are. It would seem that these 'some forces' in Europe, together with the US, are willing to stand up for Ukraine, whilst others are more than willing to 'trample over Ukraine' for the sake of re-instating their trade with Putin's Russia.

As Alexander Motyl has said,

"Such countries as France and Germany, which have extensive economic relations with Russia, face a difficult moral choice. They must ask themselves whether Putin is evil or evil enough. If they decide his killing spree in eastern Ukraine is neither evil nor evil enough, they must explain -- to themselves and to the rest of the world -- just why they believe the destruction of Ukrainian, Russian, Malaysian, Dutch and other lives is not a form of evil behavior." (ibid Alexander Motyl)

The year 2015 will be the acid test of the EU, collectively, to show the world that it, indeed, does have a moral conscience.

(to be continued) 

Critical January meeting with Putin, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko

Miloš Zeman, the current President of the Czech Republic, recently gave a radio interview with Chinese state TV in which he described the conflict in eastern Ukraine as,

Miloš Zeman and Vladimir Putin in April 2002

"a 'civil war', and refuted claims of Russian involvement. He also said EU sanctions on Moscow were an 'obstacle for all countries'." (Ukraine Today : Jan. 5, 2015)

Miloš Zeman, in 1968, during the Prague Spring, became a member of the Communist Party of Czechoslovakia (Wikipedia). His current  "Party of Civic Rights is backed financially by Russian energy firm Lukoil, according to the Czech media."  (ibid Ukraine Today) (my emphasis), and his popularity has recently plummeted to 34%. 

As reported by ČTK , 

"For Czechs, Zeman has become a puppet of Vladimir Putin and business groups with interests in China and Russia, Petr Honzejk writes, recalling that Zeman preferred to return from China aboard a private aircraft leased by the PPF and J&T firms instead of the government plane." (Ceskenoviny : 30.12.2014) (my emphasis)

Anton Shekhovtsov

Zeman represents but one of a growing band of pro-Putin politicians in the EU. If  Miloš Zeman is a Putin cheerleader in the EU, then Viktor Orbán, according to Anton Shekhovtsov,

"is a Putin at the heart of Europe."

Viktor Orbán and Vladimir Putin

Furthermore,

"Orbán’s Hungary is increasingly becoming a right-wing authoritarian kleptocracy bearing a growing resemblance to Vladimir Putin’s Russia." (ibid  Anton Shekhovtsov) (my emphasis)

Added to Zeman and Orban, we have approximately 1/3 of current EU MEP's made up of  far-right , Neo-Nazi, and outright fascistic political parties stretching from London to Athens, and encompasisng the whole of Europe.

Putin is well aware of this EU constituency of his, and we can expect him to maintain his current position over the war between Russia and Ukraine at the upcoming meeting in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana.

The meeting is scheduled for January 15 with Russian President Vladimir Putin, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande and will follow the 'Normandy Format'.

According to Poroshenko,

“The foreign ministers of the ‘Normandy format’ countries have been given instructions to prepare the agenda and draft resolutions for this summit,” said Poroshenko, referring to a similar quadripartite meeting earlier this year in France." (VoA : December 29, 2014)

            Poroshenko                                Merkel                              Hollande                              Putin

The venue of this meeting is rather interesting, given that,

             Nursultan Nazarbayev

"... Nursultan Nazarbayev, confirmed his support for Ukraine and said he hoped for a quick resolution of the conflict between government troops and pro-Russia separatists in the country’s east .." (ibid Voa) (my emphasis)

This stand of Nazarbayev is due primarily to his concerns that if Putin can use the argument that he is 'merely protecting' the interests of the Russian-speaking populations in eastern Ukraine and Ukrainian Crimea,  he could likewise use the SAME argument to invade northern Kazakhstan, where a large population of Russians reside.

Ian Traynor

As reported by Ian Traynor, Europe editor of The Guardian, Monday 1 September 2014,

"In little-noticed remarks last week, [Putin] called into question the legitimacy of the post-Soviet state of Kazakhstan while ordering the Kazakhs to be on their best behaviour when it came to serving Russian interests.

The remarks, to an audience of young people in Russia on Friday, sent shock-waves through the central Asian republic, which also hosts a large ethnic Russian minority centred in the north on the Russian border." (my emphasis)

We should not forget that not only does Putin have his cheerleaders and a large number of MEP supporters in the EU, but he also has the Russian Orthodox Church on his side.

Patriarch Kirill

Just recently Patriarch Kirill mentioned 'historic Rus', which actually refers to,

".... the Medieval Kyivan Rus state, which incorporates parts of modern day Ukraine, Russia and Belarus. The state existed from the 9th Century to the 13th Century, before Moscow was even founded." (Ukraine Today : Jan. 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, we should not forget that he once referred to,

"the 12 years of Vladimir Putin's rule a "miracle of God" and criticised his opponents, at a gathering where religious leaders heaped praise on the prime minister." (Gleb Bryanski : Reuters : Wed Feb 8, 2012) (my emphasis)

And, more recently, referring to Ukrainian Crimea, Putin said,

"It was in Crimea, in the ancient city of Chersonesus or Korsun, as ancient Russian chroniclers called it, that Grand Prince Vladimir was baptised before bringing Christianity to Rus." (The Economist : Dec 5th 2014) giving his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea a very specific 'religious' dimension.  (my emphasis)

It is with this MIND-SET that Putin will be attending the 15th January meeting in Astana, irrespective of the current cataclysmic collapse of the Russian economy. Nursultan Nazarbayev is indeed wise to be very very wary of what Putin will be bringing to the meeting in Astana.

(to be continued)

 

2015 : Putin's and Poroshenko's New Year

The New Year festivities have come and gone, and today we awake wondering rather apprehensively what the coming year holds for us. Already there has been a death in eastern Ukraine. Vatican radio reports that,

" ... Ukraine has reported its first military death of 2015 in its conflict with pro-Russian separatists in the east. The announcement comes while Ukrainian authorities threaten to silence the country's biggest television channel for broadcasting a New Year's Eve concert featuring Russian artists." (Vatican Radio: 03/01/2015)

Meanwhile, Putin continues to 'Russify' Ukrainian Crimea having,

" ... signed a decree last Friday to recognize the validity of documents on military service in Ukraine for Russian nationals residing in Crimea and Sevastopol." (MOSCOW, January 2. /TASS/)

With a simple signature the Russian army has been boosted with the addition of  all Ukrainian-trained military personell residing in Ukrainian Crimea!

Besides the problems confronting him regarding the increasingly imploding Russian economy; Putin has yet another headache viz. the 'stillbirth' of his,

"Eurasian Economic Community and customs union, [which] began on Jan. 1, 2015. It's made up of Russia, Belarus, and Kazakhstan." (cf  Mike Bird: Dec. 31, 2014: Business Insider)

Putin's economic woes have rapidly spilt over into Belarus, and Kazakhstan, the two other major partners in his attempt to create a Russian version of the EU. 

Already the Belarus President Lukashenko has,

"sacked his prime minister as the tightly-controlled ex-Soviet state struggles with the effects of Russia's economic crisis next door.

Lukashenko dismissed Mikhail Myasnikovich, who had served in his post since December 2010, and appointed his chief of staff Andrei Kobyakov as his new head of government, his administration said." (AFP :  Dec. 27, 2014)

In contrast to Lukashenko, President Poroshenko of Ukraine was upbeat in his New Year's Address to the Urainian people.

"Hard challenges made us stronger. As people we became undivided, turning into a much stronger political Ukrainian nation.
The year of 2015 will not be easy. But I believe that it will become a part of the history as a year of deep reforms that will open a path to a membership in the European Union. This is our dream that we will bring into life together.
Today I also wish all of us long awaited, long lasting peace.
Let the prophesy of Taras Shevchenko come true: "And on a renewed earth will be no enemy, but a son, and a mother, and people!" (Kyiv Post : Jan. 1, 2015)

But members of the EU will, themselves, be facing challenges from the steady growth of right-wing 'fascistic' parties stretching from the UK to Greece, and who are been ACTIVELY supported by Putin 'financially'.

As Jeremy Bender reports,

"The six parties linked to Russia are the UK's UK Independence Party (UKIP), France's National Front, Germany's National Democratic Party, Hungary's Jobbik, Greece's Golden Dawn, and Bulgaria's Attack. " (Business Insider UK : Dec 9, 2014)

Already Angela Merkel is very worried about the support that the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party is gaining.

"Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative bloc is also worried about the rising support for AfD, which is backing the anti-Islamic rallies." ( Kalyan Kumar | January 3, 2015: International Business Times Australia)

It is therefore rather ironical that the Left SDP and the far- right parties in critical EU countries are soft-on-Putin (blog)  And this year of critical elections in EU countries stand to favour Putin at the expense of Ukraine.

2015 Elections in EU Countries

Estonia, Finland, Gibralter, Greece, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and the UK, are ALL having the equivalent of general elections. Greece and Poland are also having Presidential elections.
 
It should be borne in mind that the sanctions against Putin are soon coming up for renewal. And as reported in the Economist on October 8th 2014,

"On balance—and it is an exceptionally finely balanced call—we believe that the Russian government is right to doubt the resolve of the EU. We expect economic sanctions to be maintained at their current level until their scheduled expiry date at the end of July 2015 and then to be eased substantially."

Even more critical,

"There’s an election just coming up and it’s likely (not certain, but likely) that Syriza will win it. This is one of the new very definitely left of centre parties in Europe and they’ve quite clearly said that they’re just not going to put up with this austerity any more. That austerity being the polite name for the enforced deflation being imposed upon Greece." (Tim Worstall : Forbes : 1/01/2015) (my emphasis)

Worstall speculates that Greece may soon leave the Euro zone because,

" .... Greeks will say the debt has to be cut, the ECB (and Bundesbank)  (read Angela Merkel!) will insist that the course has to be kept, Greece will then repudiate the debt and the ECB will cut off funding to the Greek banks. At which point the only possibility for Greece is to bring back the drachma to recapitalise those banks and keep the economy open." (ibid Worstall)

This is the real dilemma facing the Euro in a few days time. Putin must, indeed be whooping it up whilst Poroshenko has to be worried what this will do to any 'peace' initiative regarding the war between Russia and Ukraine. The critical question now is,

"Will the January 15th Minsk talks actually take place? And, if so, will the parties to these 'peace' talks be able to reach conclusions that will solidify the current tenuous nature of the 'ceasefire'?

(to be continued.)