Cornered Putin lashing out ...18 Jan 2015

In yesterday's blog entry I concluded by stating that,

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," Medvedev said, quoting former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who made the remark in his first inauguration speech at the time of the Great Depression in 1933." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

A rather interesting remark that seems to hint at the fact that Medvedev may be envisaging a Great Russian Depression in the coming year.
Could it be this dire economic outlook for Russia that is forcing Putin into the militaristic camp?

And this morning it is reported that,

"Ukraine’s military repelled a wave of rebel assaults on Donetsk Airport yesterday, rushing in new troops and ammunition to the battle zone as the government prepares for a visit by neighboring Poland’s prime minister." (Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina : Bloomberg : 2015-01-18 : T10:01:21)

        

         DONETSK AIRPORT

Furthermore that,

Andriy Lysenko

"Russia is massing troops and armaments at the border with Ukraine and is testing new weapons in the conflict area, [Andriy] Lysenko said. Government soldiers were struggling to evacuate the wounded from the airport as a “fierce fight” resumed yesterday afternoon, the Security and Defense Council said on its website. " (ibid  Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina) (my emphasis)

Paul gregory rather accurately describes the current mind-set of Putin.

"According to the “cornered rat” theory, Vladimir Putin is more dangerous with his back to the wall. This theory says he is far from finished, despite sanctions, a collapsing economy, and international isolation.  We know for a fact that Putin does not back down when faced with adversity. He doubled down on repression against the mass demonstrations of December 2011. He expanded his hybrid war into east Ukraine despite world outrage over Crimean annexation." (The Blaze : Jan. 14, 2015 2:45pm) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"The “cornered rat” model has even been used in some [EU] Realpolitik circles (the 'fragrant' Mogherini, Hollande, Steinheimer, Renzi, to name but a few) to argue, that we should lighten up on Putin. We should make life easier for the rat in the corner before it bites. That is dead wrong: The correct approach is to take away the rat’s teeth." (ibid Paul Gregory)

       Mogherini                Hollande                 Steinheimer              Renzi

 However, that  'Realpolitic Circle' in the EU that were consistently calling for the sanctions against Russia to be removed are themselves currently caught up in a dilemma now that Putin has 

scuppered the Astana meeting,  turned off the Russian gas taps to eastern Europe,  and is massing his army on the Ukrainian border for a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

Their dilemma is compounded by the fact that Merkel and Poroshenko have recently concluded after a telephone conversation between them that,

"A gathering of the contact group should be followed by a meeting of French, German, Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers, Poroshenko said in a statement on his website after a phone talk with Merkel.

"The key pre-conditions for further peace talks are the closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the release of all hostages, according to the statement." (ibid  Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina) (my emphasis)

These events in Europe seemed to have thrust Mikhail Khodorkovsky further into the limelight.

In Vilnius yesterday he stated that,

"Back when I was in jail, I was writing that ... around 2014-15 will be the beginning of the inner crisis of the regime, when it will start making serious mistakes," said Khodorkovsky at a conference in Lithuania." (Reuters : Sat Jan 17, 2015  : 2:56am) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, in an very recent interview on CNN he said that he,

"wanted regime change in Russia .... I think that my country does not deserve a new era of authoritarianism ..."

Now that the cornered Putin is lashing out even more fiercely, is this a symptom of an escalating crisis within the 'kleptocratic inner cricle' of Putin that Khodorkovsky predicted whilst he was in prison?  If so, will Putin now "double down" on his repression of the Russian people as the economic crisis in Russia causes a further and dramatic decrease in their living standards?

Or will he now invade Ukraine to dramatically increase the nationalist fervour that he inspired amongst Russians when he invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. 

Putin has now put Russia on a war footing, primarily to deflect the anxieties of the Russian people away from the collapsing of their economy.  He has steadily been ramping up expenditure on his war machine, to the extent that it now consumes 30% of the Russian budget. 

As Alexei Kudrin warned,

Alexei Kudrin

"Russia plans to spend more than 20 trillion rubles by 2020 on modernizing its armed forces, but the dilemma is not new. Long before the collapse in oil prices, Siluanov’s predecessor, Alexei Kudrin, warned that plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on rearming were unaffordable." (Jason Bush : Reuters : Japan Times : 18 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

The fact that Putin is now demanding that the military budget be 'left intact'  is yet another indication that he will not back down, especially now that he is 'cornered'. Now, more than ever, Putin is a very dangerous man.

(to be continued)

Putin firmly in the militaristic camp

Tomas Hirst

Tomas Hirst reported on 14 Jan 2015 that,

"Russia's economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev borrowed a quote from communist revolutionary Vladimir Lenin in his speech to the Gaidar Forum in Moscow today.

Alexei Ulyukayev

Ulyukayev cited the founder of the Soviet Union as he told guests at the economic summit that the era of peace is over to be "replaced by an era of relatively much more impulsive, spasmodic, disastrous, conflict", (Business Insider) (my emphasis)

In an interview with Bloomberg, (14 Jan 2015) Alexei Ulyukayev re-iterated the belief of Putin that Russia has enough economic resources to withstand both the fall in the price of oil, as well as the falling price of the rouble.

Unfortunately, Sberbank's chairman and president German Gref stated at the recent Gaidar Forum on Jan 14, that was also attended by Alexei Ulyukaye, that,

German Gref

"it was "obvious that the banking crisis will be enormous," citing the current average oil prices.

Elena Holodny

Sberbank's chairman isn't the first banker to seem worried about the industry. In mid-December, one banker declared it was "the end of the banking system" after the central bank raised rates to 17% in an effort to limit the ruble's devaluation and inflation risks." (Elena Holodny : Business Insider UK : Jan. 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

German Gref rather contradicts the 'upbeat' optimism of  Alexei Ulyukayev.

Furthermore, and perhaps even more worrying, is the fact that Gref said at the forum,

"But to be honest, we understand very little about what the government [read 'Putin'] will do." (ibid Elena Holodny) (my emphasis)

We can infer from this statement of Gref that the state of the Russian economy is of secondary importance for Putin. Of primary importance to Putin is the rapid military build-up of Russian forces and armaments in eastern Ukraine, and a concerted military push to confront the Ukrainian army.

As reported by Oliver Caroll,

" Heavy fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels has resumed with renewed savagery." (The Independent : Saturday 17 January 2015), especially around Donetsk airport.

  

 

 

Furthermore that,

"The long-term prospects of the conflict - fuelled by Russia but which is increasingly on taking on internal, civil dimensions - were underlined on Thursday by the order of President Poroshenko to institute three new waves of mobilisation to crush the rebels." (ibid Oliver Caroll) (my emphasis)

We can, at this stage, discern two distinct camps around Putin that are emerging. These are the militarists and the economists.

At this point in time it would seem as though Putin is firmly standing in the camp of the militarists, so much so that Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, said that,

        Ben Hodges

"Russia is working to develop within a few years the capability to threaten several neighbors at once on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine ...  [He also] told Reuters [that] an attack on another neighbor does not seem like an immediate threat because Moscow appears to have its hands full in Ukraine for now." (Adrian Croft : Reuters : 17 Jan 2014) (my emphasis)

Like German Gref, Medvedev is also concerned about the state of the Russian economy. Medvedev told his deputies there should be regular meetings to discuss the looming economic crisis.

"The economic situation is quite problematic to say the least," he said. "Therefore, all of the members of the government must hold key meetings in the areas that they coordinate, as we have already agreed," Medvedev said. (Daniel J. Graeber : UPI : Jan. 12, 2015)

Even at the recent Gaidar Forum in Moscow he vowed that,

" ...... the government would not return to a Soviet-style mobilization economy and that it would keep the ruble a convertible currency. This will allow Russia to adapt to the new conditions and modernize its economy, something that it needs to do regardless of oil prices." ( Ivan Nechepurenko : Moscow Times : Jan. 14 2015)

Dmitry Medvedev delivers a speech as he attends the Gaidar Forum 2015 

Furthermore that,

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," Medvedev said, quoting former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who made the remark in his first inauguration speech at the time of the Great Depression in 1933." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

A rather interesting remark that seems to hint at the fact that Medvedev may be envisaging a Great Russian Depression in the coming year.

Could it be this dire economic outlook for Russia that is forcing Putin into the militaristic camp?

(to be continued) 

Putin has lit a dangerous fuse that cannot now be extinguished ....

I  ended yesterday's blog entry by saying that,

"Is  Putin about to push the world over the precipice into full-scale war in Europe?"

And overnight this prediction is coming perilously close to being fulfilled by Putin.

As reported this morning in the Mail Online by Robert Lea,

Vladimir Putin and Alexei Miller yesterday

"Overnight the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ordered the state energy giant Gazprom to cut supplies to and through Ukraine by around three-fifths amid accusations its neighbour has been siphoning off and stealing Russian gas."

"Russia cut gas exports to Europe by 60 per cent today, plunging the continent into an energy crisis 'within hours' as a dispute with Ukraine escalated.
This morning, gas companies in Ukraine said that Russia had completely cut off their supply. Six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas shipped via Ukraine today, in a sharp escalation of a struggle over energy that threatens Europe as winter sets in.
Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine." (15th Jan 2015)

And while Putin turns off the gas-taps, London South East reports that,

"The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said [yesterday] that some of its observers have been pulled out of eastern Ukraine, where violence has surged this week despite a ceasefire.
"Some member states have temporarily withdrawn their monitors from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions," OSCE spokesman Michael Bociurkiw said by telephone." (London South East : Thu, 15th Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile following on from the bombing of the bus yesterday by Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine and that killed 10 passengers,

"NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has called on Russia to withdraw its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and use "all its influence" to make them observe a cease-fire agreement." (RFERL : January 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

What is even more disturbing is that,

"Ukrainian officials have stated that new high tech Russian weapons have been used for the first time in east Ukraine. According to Ukrainian army spokesmen, on 13 January insurgent forces deployed the ‘Buratino' multiple rocket launcher system in the latest wave of attacks on Donetsk International Airport." (Ukraine Today : Jan. 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is without a doubt that this weapon can only be operated by trained Russian soldiers and, together with the cutting off of gas supplies last night, signifies that Putin has completely thrown caution to the wind. This represents a serious tipping point from which Putin will be unable to extricate himself from. 

However, as E.L. reports,

" The EU has has also made the supply system a lot more resilient, putting taxpayers’ money into new interconnectors between countries dependent on Russian gas imports. This rewrites the rules. If supplies from the east are interrupted, the countries affected can import gas from elsewhere. As of December, Lithuania, once 100% dependent on Russian gas, is importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Norway. Ukraine’s gas imports from the west are rocketing." (E.L. : The Economist : Jan 12th 2015) (my emphasis)

Thus it is only Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey, that are experiencing a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine. Putin's cutting off of gas from the EU in 2006 and 2009 have backfired on him by making the E'U's supply system resilient to such actions of his.  

Putin can therefore no longer rely on 'blackmailing' the EU into lifting their sanctions against Russia, or on oil prices making a recovery.

Mike Smith speculates, however, that Putin,

" ... seem to be engaged in a risky gamble, apparently banking on European nations wavering on sanctions and oil prices making a recovery even as economists predict a deep recession." (Agence France Press [AFP] : 7.30 am (GMT) : 15 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

However Smith fails also to take into account the mind-set of Putin that is inextricably bound to his near pathological perception that he is not only fighting against Ukraine, but also against NATO; that Russia itself is being threatened by Ukraine now being in the camp of the EU, and his absolute and paranoid belief in the encircling encroachment of NATO along Russia's border.

Added to which, as Igor Shadkhan more than two years ago has pointed out,


“Stalin exterminated people out of fear because he was afraid of being betrayed if he eased his grip on power,” he said. “Putin is also scared. He’s a human being and has many reasons to be scared.” (Bloomberg : 2013-08-27)  (my emphasis)



  
The reaction of Ukraine to Putin switching off the gas to mainly former communist members of the old Warsaw Pact has precipitated the Ukrainian parliament today to,

" ... to refresh its front-line forces and resume partial conscription after a top security official warned that Russian forces backing separatist rebels had sharply increased military activity in the east." (Natalia Zinets: Reuters : Thu Jan 15, 2015)

 
 Furthermore, Oleksander Turchynov, secretary of the Ukrainian national defense council, has said that,

"There is an urgent need to strengthen the combat and mobilization readiness of our forces and other military forces up to a level which guarantees an adequate reaction to threats to national security from continuing Russian aggression," (ibid Natalia Zinets) (my emphasis)



Putin cannot stop these developments that his current actions have prompted. He has lit a fuse that, by the hour, is becoming more and more difficult to extinguish. 

(to be continued)

Putin beginning an all-out assault on Ukraine

Valery Gerasimov

Just as Lavrov yesterday suceeded in torpedoing the proposed meeting of Merkel, Poroshenko, Hollande and Putin in Astana on the 15th Jan, General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, announced that,

" .... he would beef up combat capabilities this year in Crimea, the Arctic and the country's westernmost Kaliningrad region that borders two NATO states" (Timothy Heritage : Reuters :  Tue Jan 13, 2015)

It can be no co-incidence that at the same time of General Gerasimov's announcement about beefing up the 'combat capabilities this year in Crimea', Putin's proxies in Donetsk accelerated their bombing attacks on and around Donetsk airport.

As reported by Richard Balmforth today (January 14 2015),

"Shelling hit a passenger bus in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday (Wednesday NZT), killing at least 10 people, and fighting intensified around the international airport in the city of Donetsk as separatists tried to oust government forces" (Stuff.co.nz : January 14 2015)

Neither can it be a co-incidence that this military push by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers, as well as the pronouncement of Russian General Gerasimov, has come immediately after Poroshenko announced that,

"Petro Poroshenko on Wednesday (January 14 2015) will sign the decree on the next wave of mobilization. ....

 

Earlier it was reported that the first stage of partial mobilization will begin on January 20 also 90 days will proceed. At this stage in general across Ukraine is planned to call 50 thousand people. For the mobilized citizens according to the legislation of Ukraine it is provided social guarantees for passing of military service." (News pn : 13 January 2015)

The military response of Putin to this call-up, as well as the receiving by the Ukrainian army of more military equipment (including fighter planes), underlines the fact that even when Poroshenko initiated the meeting between himself, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin, and that was to take place in Astana on the 15th Jan., Putin had already decided NOT to attend. This also accounts for the fact that Lavrov was determined to scupper this meeting simply to give Putin a 'diplomatic' argument for not attending.

And what could be more telling than the fact that 1 hour ago (BST 18.50) Oleksander Stashevsky reports that,

"Pro-Kremlin insurgents unleashed a massive rocket assault in Ukraine Wednesday as Kiev and Moscow traded blame for a bus shelling that killed 12 in the war's bloodiest incident since a September truce." (Oleksander Stashevsky : Reuters : 14 Jan 2015)

Very disturbing indeed is the fact that,

"Kiev claims that the fighters employed a massive 30-barrel flamethrower, a type used by Russia but not Ukraine. Kiev said insurgents used it for the first time overnight to attack the eastern village of Vesele.

This type of system "only exists in the operational service of the Russian army. It is not operated by us," Ukrainian defence ministry spokeswoman Viktoria Kushnir told AFP. (ibid Oleksander Stashevsky) (my emphasis)

Konstantin Dolgov

The fact that Lavrov corrected Konstantin Dolgov (Russian Foreign Ministry's human rights investigator), who immediately blamed Kiev for the deaths in the bus that was shelled and stated that, "We are outraged. This undermines all peace settlement efforts", exposes the fact that not all Kremlin 'apparatchiks' are singing from the same Putin hymn-sheet.

Thus, Lavrov had to quickly correct Dolgov by saying that,

 
"there are... several versions (of the incident). We need to examine them."( ibid Oleksander Stashevsky)   

It would seem, therefore, that Putin has decided on a FULL ESCALATION of his war with Ukraine.

Putin has been in this situation before. After the FSB (formerly the KGB) blew up those flats in Moscow that killed hundreds of innocent sleeping people, Putin had his argument to launch a massive strike against Chechnya.

And now we have the blowing up of a bus and the brutal killing of 10 civilians. And immediately following that event Putin intensifies his assault against Ukrainian troops at the Donetsk airport and along the borders of the rebel-held Ukrainian territory and Ukraine.

I am reminded of the words that Gorbachev spoke but a few days ago.

"... [I]f either side lost its nerve in the current stand-off, it could lead to nuclear war, and [he] spoke of his fears that the world “will not survive the next few years”. (Justin Huggler : Daily Telegraph : 11 Jan 2015)

Is Putin about to push the world over the precipice into full-scale war in Europe?

(to be continued)

Was Putin too afraid to attend the Astana meeting?

And so it has happened as predicted. As I wrote yesterday,

" ... his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has to throw as many spanners as he can muster into the foreign ministers meeting between Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia on the 12 Jan in Berlin (today), so that Putin can have a 'diplomatic' argument  for not attending the Astana meeting" (blog entry 12/1/2015)
 
Thus this morning we read that,

"Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after meeting ministers from Germany, France and Ukraine in Berlin on Monday that all had agreed that only a strict ceasefire could pave the way for the countries' leaders to meet in the Kazakh capital Astana." (Reuters : Tue Jan 13)

What, exactly, does Lavrov mean by the "observing of a strict ceasefire"? 

Given that Putin is adamant that there are NO Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine alongside his proxies, the logic that then flows from Lavrov's argument is that;  

• the Ukrainian army should lay down their arms
• Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine can then be supplied with more arms from Russia
• more Russian soldiers can then cross the border into eastern Ukraine to counter Poroshenko's call-up of 50,000 more Ukrainian troops specifically to begin to control the BORDER between Russia and Ukraine

"According to Poroshenko, Ukraine's military forces are 100 percent equipped, while several months ago the army only had 20 percent of the needed supplies." ( KyivPost : Jan. 5, 2015)


But, most important of all, 

"Lavrov's comments put an end to plans for talks in Astana on Thursday, to which Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had invited the Russian, French and German leaders.
"According to the ministers, this (work on implementing the deal) will allow plans for a successful summit in Astana to move forward. It was agreed that it was necessary to work more on this," Lavrov said." (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

               Poroshenko                              Merkel                               Hollande                           Putin

These developments do seem to strongly indicate that Putin;

• does not have to be seen to have buckled under the weight of the collapsing Russian economy
• may have increased his isolation within his kleptocratic clan that is now in control of Russia
• like Stalin, is displaying real fear of being betrayed if he eased his grip on power
• giving his bevy of his supporters in the EU, especially Hollande, Renzi, and the 'fragrant Mogherini, a further argument for sanctions against Russia to be lifted.

            Hollande                               Renzi                 The 'fragrant' Mogherini

Putin's global propaganda machine RT rather succinctly exposes Lavrov's spanners that he threw into the foreign minister's meeting in Berlin yesterday to get Putin off the hook of having to attend the proposed 15 Jan meeting in Astana.

Notice further how the reporter refers to the rebel-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine as 'republics'. This rather exposes the fact that Putin has absolutely no intention of stemming the flow of armaments and Russian soldiers across the border between Russia and Ukraine into those territories occupied by his proxies and their Russian-soldier helpers, in the face of international law, notwithstanding the constant mantra of denial emanating from the bowels of the Kremlin.

We also learn that yesterday Viktor Yanukovych, deposed president of Ukraine has, after one year,  been finally placed on the wanted list of Interpol for embezzling billions of dollars in public funds from Ukraine. (BBC News : 12 January 2015)

 Yet we have the movie director, Oliver Stone,

"... wanting to make a four-hour documentary telling the [so-called] "dirty story" of the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in what he believes was a "coup" organized with the help of the United States' Central Intelligence Agency." (Moscow Times : Dec. 31 2014)

This is the same Oliver Stone who has argued that,

"Hitler is an easy scapegoat throughout history and it's been used cheaply," he said. Then he mentioned the S word. "Stalin has a complete other story. Not to paint him as a hero, but to tell a more factual representation. He fought the German war machine more than any person." (Ed Pilkington : The Guardian : Sunday 10 January 2010)

He further claimed,

" .... that the Russians suffered more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the media'." (Daniel Bates : Mail Online : 28 July 2010)

which he later retracted saying,

"'In trying to make a broader historical point about the range of atrocities the Germans committed against many people, I made a clumsy association about the Holocaust, for which I am sorry and I regret." (ibid Daniel Bates)

Now that Interpol will be hunting down Yanukovych, will Stone continue to make his propaganda documentary that will be sweet music to the ears of Putin?

(to be continued)

 

Is Putin cornered? What, then, will he do?

Dmitry Zaks on Saturday Jan 10, reported that,

Dmitry Zaks

"Ukraine fended off renewed financial pressure from Russia on Saturday by accusing Moscow of orchestrating rebel attacks that killed two soldiers and heightened tensions ahead of mooted international peace talks.

The stakes between Moscow and Kiev have been rising since Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko surprised many at the end of December by announcing plans to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin at a mini-summit in the Kazakh capital Astana on Thursday." (AFP (Agence France Press) : Jan 10 2014)

Furthermore that the,

" ... most immediate danger facing Kiev is the prospect of Moscow demanding the early payment of $3 billion (2.5 billion euros) it had lent former president Viktor Yanukovych in December 2013 to convince him to ditch an EU alliance and side with the Kremlin instead." (ibid Dmitri Zaks) (my emphasis)

Yulia Silena

Even more worrying is the fact that,

"[i]ntense fighting erupted around east Ukraine's main rebel-held city on Sunday that wrecked a power station and briefly trapped more than 300 coal miners in one of Europe's largest pits.
Repeated rounds of rocket and mortar fire echoed across snow-covered Donetsk on Sunday evening despite a formal truce in the nine-month war."( Yulia Silena : Agence France Press (AFP: 12 Jan 2015)

It would seem that the strategy of Putin, ahead of the Berlin meeting today between  the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, Russia and Germany, is to:

•  use his demand for early payment of money lent to Yanukovich (cf. Dmitry Zaks) and
•  use the eruption of fighting between his proxies in Donetsk and the Ukrainian army

                       Klimkin (Ukraine)              Fabius (France)            Lavrov (Russia)           Steinmeier (Germany)

(a) as 'bargaining' chips
               OR
(b) to ensure that the proposed meeting in Astana on the 15 Jan 2015 between himself, Poroshenko,  Merkel, and Hollande DOES NOT GO AHEAD.



Furthermore, the escalating of fighting in Donetsk yesterday (11/1/2015) seems to be aimed directly at bolstering the call of Hollande that the sanctions against Russia should now be withdrawn.



At the same time it would seem as though Steinmeir and Merkel may be closing ranks.

Both of them are now

" .... pushing for progress on implementing a much-violated peace deal that was drawn up in Minsk in September. Berlin says a substantial narrowing of differences is needed for a summit to take place." (AP (Associated Press) : 12/1/2015) (my emphasis)

This attitude of  Merkel is best illustrated when she welcomed the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, with full military honours, on the 8 Jan 2015, and spelt out that,

" ... All points of the Minsk Agreement must be fulfilled, even though some of them would not immediately be met." (DW : jr/msh (Reuters, AFP, AP) : 08.01.2015) (my emphasis)

It would therefore seem that Merkel is throwing down the gauntlet to Putin. And it is possibly this attitude of Merkel that Putin is trying to break with his demand for the early payment of the loan given to Yanukovich, as well as  ramping up the fighting of his proxies in eastern Ukraine against the Ukrainian army.

Poroshenko seems to have somewhat pre-empted this belligerent move of Putin since,

"Ukraine's Ministry of Defense plans to bolster its military by calling up some 50,000 people during a new wave of mobilization, the ministry's spokesperson Viktoria Kushnir said Tuesday.
"About 50,000 people will be called up, including […]reservists, officers, and soldiers doing their compulsory service," Kushnir announced during a press briefing." (Sputnik : 23.12.2014)

Coupled with this is the fact that,


"According to Poroshenko, Ukraine's military forces are 100 percent equipped, while several months ago the army only had 20 percent of the needed supplies." ( KyivPost : Jan. 5, 2015)




What we therefore have is that:

• Merkel is throwing down the gauntlet to Putin
• the Ukrainian army is readied to face Putin's military machine in eastern Ukraine
• Putin is being forced to try to scupper the upcoming Astana meeting on the 15 Jan so that he does not have to be seen to have buckled under the weight of the collapsing Russian economy
• his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has to throw as many spanners as he can muster into the foreign ministers meeting between Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia on the 12 Jan in Berlin (today), so that Putin can have a 'diplomatic' argument  for not attending the Astana meeting

Perhaps, as Evgenia Pismennaya and Irina Reznik point out,

Shadkhan and Putin

"While Putin doesn’t share Stalin’s totalitarian impulses, he does have a similar understanding and sense of fear, according to the filmmaker [ Igor Shadkhan].
“Stalin exterminated people out of fear because he was afraid of being betrayed if he eased his grip on power,” he said. “Putin is also scared. He’s a human being and has many reasons to be scared.”
Sooner or later, though, Shadkhan said Putin will have to overcome that fear and realize he must step down." (Bloomberg : 2013-08-27)

What is rather disconcerting is that  Putin told Shadkhan that,

" ...  totalitarianism isn’t something that can be imposed from the top in Russia because it’s “embedded in our own people’s mentality.” Shadkhan said he’d now like to ask Putin who’s “to blame for the resurrection of the authoritarian regime? The people?” (ibid Evgenia Pismennaya and Irina Reznik)

It is two years since this article was written and we can now see that just as Putin assumes that totalitarianism is 'embedded in the minds of the Russian people', then it must also be embedded in his own mind.

It would therefore seem that just like Stalin, Putin would have no qualms in dispensing with those around him who may even just hint at betraying him. 

Maybe, therefore, Gorbachev is correct in

" ... accusing [Putin] in a recent book of overconfidence and believing himself to be “second only to God”.  (Justin Huggler : The Telegraph : 11 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

More importantly, maybe he is also correct in saying that,

""We won't survive the coming years if someone loses their nerve in this overheated situation". ... "This is not something I'm saying thoughtlessly. I am extremely concerned." (Reuters : Fri Jan 9, 2015)


(to be continued)

Putin's critical week of decisions ......

The flurry of diplomatic activity on Friday raised the hopes of many people that we may be entering the beginning of the end of the war between Ukraine and Russia. As Ian Traynor reported,

In a flurry of diplomatic activity German and Ukrainian leaders met in Berlin and the Latvian foreign minister headed to Kiev and Moscow. Momentum gathered behind a proposed summit in Kazakhstan next week between the Russian, Ukrainian and French presidents and the German chancellor." (The Guardian : Thursday 8 January 2015)"

Even the 'fragrant" Mogherini could not contain her excitement.

“The situation on the ground is slightly better than some months ago,” she said. “ There seems to be a different Russian attitude … I hope this is part of a new time, a new era.", she has said. (ibid The Guardian)"

But to-day is another day, and that false dawn of hope that was had yesterday rather seems to have evaporated.

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel received Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, who is in Berlin to hold informal talks focusing on bilateral cooperation and the crisis in Ukraine." (Ukraine Today (UT) :  Jan. 10, 2015) 

 Interestingly,

"Humanitarian aid from Kazakhstan has arrived to Ukraine, Tengrinews reports citing the press office of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Kazakhstan. It is planned to complete the shipment of 300 tons of cargo by January 10. " (Gyuzel Kamalova: Tengri News : 9 January 2015)

This must be somewhat sticking in the  craw of Putin since it is sending a strong message from Nazarbayev that he fully supports Ukraine.

Meanwhile Walter Steinmeier, Foreign Minister of Germany, has organised a meeting of the foreign ministers of  France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, who will meet in Berlin on Monday (January 12) to discuss the situation in eastern Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk protocol, the German foreign ministry said on Friday." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

      Klimkin (Ukraine)              Fabius (France)            Lavrov (Russia)           Steinmeier (Germany)

"We want to do everything possible to allow political compromises that would help ease the situation in eastern Ukraine,” Steinmeier said in a written statement on Friday, following a teleconference with his Russian, Ukrainian and French counterparts, who he said have all accepted the invitation." (World Bulletin : 10 January 2015 Saturday) (my emphasis)

Now it is common knowledge that Steinmeier, unlike Merkel,  desperately wants to end the sanctions against Russia, and that the rift between the two of them over the issue of Ukraine is becoming more and more public.

After all Merkel, on the 7th January, is NOT calling for compromises but for Putin to,

" .... "[implement] all 12 points in the peace plan ......... before the European Union could consider easing sanctions against Russia." (ibid UT)

Steinmeier wants 'political compromises' whereas Merkel wants Putin to FULLY implement the Minsk Proposals.

Both Steinmeier and the 'fragarant' Mogherini, together with Hollande, can thus be seen to be leading the brigade in the EU to have the current sanctions against Putin's Russia withdrawn. 

And coming over the hill to support them we now have Mikhail Gorbachev.

"In an interview with the German weekly newsmagazine Der Spiegel, 83-year-old former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev said the crisis in Ukraine could lead to large-scale war in Europe or even a nuclear war. "We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension."
The Nobel Peace Prize laureate decried the "loss of trust" between Russia and the West as "catastrophic," and said ties must be "defrosted." (Deutsche Welle (DW) : 09.01.2015)

Bear in mind that Gorbachev,

"defended the Russian annexation of the Crimean Peninsula last year, but criticized the Russian leader's authoritarian style of leadership." (ibid DW) (my emphasis)

whilst at the same time chastising both Germany and the West for ostensibly being part of the problem.

• "The new Germany wants its hands in every pie. There seems to be a lot of people who want to be involved in a new division of Europe. (ibid DW)
• He said Western attempts to disempower Russian President Vladimir Putin and destabilize Russia were "very stupid and extremely dangerous." (ibid DW)

What this sudden outburst of Gorbachev may be telling us is that the economic situation inside of Putin's Russia may be more dire than we can imagine.

As  Sujata Rao reports,

"Russia's credit rating looks set to tumble into junk for the first time in more than a decade, a move that would exclude its bonds from a couple of high-profile indexes and may set off another wave of capital outflows.
The Fitch agency cut its rating on Russia to 'BBB minus' from 'BBB' on Friday, citing a significant deterioration in the country's economic outlook due to the slump in oil prices and falling value of the rouble." (LONDON, Jan 11 (Reuters)) (my emphasis)

 
 
It is therefore no coincidence that,

"Poroshenko and Merkel are to meet in Paris today where world leaders are gathering for a freedom march following this weeks tragic event in France." (TASS : January 11)

“Petro Poroshenko and Angela Merkel have agreed that a brief meeting aimed at co-ordinating the efforts to settle the Donbass crisis will be held in Paris on January 11,” the press service said. “Both leaders will take part in a unity march initiated by French President Francois Hollande to remember victims of the terrorist attacks.” (ibid TASS)

The fact that this meeting will be taking place today, together with the fact that there will be a foreign minister's meeting in Berlin to-morrow that will include that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov, may be indicative of the fact that Putin's 'room for manoeuvre' is now vanishingly small.

Is it Gorbachev's fear that Putin may now 'lash out', and that this could

" .... lead to large-scale war in Europe or even a nuclear war. "We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension."? (ibid DW) (my emphasis)

Is this fear also causing Ukraine to have a new wave of mobilization?

And following on the heels of all this diplomatic 'flurry' in Europe, as reported by Sputnik News (11.01.2015),

"Obama and Cameron are set to meet for a working dinner on January 15, and hold talks in the Oval Office on January 16."

Furthermore,

"The meeting between Obama and Cameron is scheduled to take place at a time when Russian and German leaders will also be meeting in Kazakhstan’s capital Astana to look for a way out of the crisis in eastern Ukraine." (ibid Sputnik News) (my emphasis)

Cameron                                                      Obama

This coming week will be a week of 'critical' decisions about the war between Ukraine and Putin's Russia.

Was Merkel correct when she told Obama by telephone that,

" ...  after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said. " (Peter Baker : The New York Times: March 3, 2014)

 Is Gorbachev referring to Putin when he says that,

"We won't survive if someone loses their nerves in the current tension." (ibid DW)

(to be continued)