"European Union foreign ministers will gather here in an emergency
meeting to-day, 29th Jan. 2015, to discuss the EU’s response to an assault by
Russian-backed rebels on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, EU Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini said on Twitter on Sunday." (Matthew Dalton And Laurence Norman : Wall Street Journal : Jan 27, 2015) As Laurence Norman reports,
"The European Union could extend targeted sanctions on Russian officials
and separatist leaders when foreign ministers meet Thursday but there is
little momentum behind a push for broader measures at this stage, EU
diplomats said." (Wall Street Journal : Jan 29, 2015)
And now Putin has a new young Greek ally in the EU. As reported by Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber,
Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras
"Syriza, also known as the Coalition of the Radical Left, had 36.34
percent of the vote after the final ballots were tallied Monday. With
an anti-austerity platform and a pledge to remain in the euro zone,
the party — which has formed an unlikely coalition with the right-wing
Independent Greeks party in order to gain an overall majority — has been
a staunch opponent of EU sanctions imposed on Russia over its
annexation of Crimea and the ongoing fighting in Ukraine. " (The Moscow Times : Jan. 26 2015 ) (my emphasis)
Furthermore,
Alexis Tsipras & Valentina Matviyenko
"The leftist leader met with Russian officials in Moscow last May,
including Valentina Matviyenko, chair of the Russian parliament's upper
house who had served as Russia's ambassador to Greece in the late 1990s. According to Greek media, Tsipras used the occasion to chastise
the EU's policy on Ukraine, denounce European sanctions against Moscow
and support separatist referendums in eastern Ukraine that the West said
were illegitimate" (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis) See also Anton Shekhovtsov.
What is interesting is that Putin draws his supporters in the EU from the far-left and the far-right, the 'fragrant' Mogherini and Alexis Tsipras being examples of the far-left, and Marine Le Pen's 'Front Nationale' and Hungary's 'Jobbik' Party examples of far-right EU parties.
Is it this support in the EU that is emboldening Putin to now openly 'invade' Ukraine in the hopes of creating a land-bridge between Crimea and Russia through the port of Mariupol?
Yesterday,
Joe Biden
"The White House gave a strong signal on Wednesday that it was
considering further sanctions against Russia over its support for the
separatists.
US Vice President Joe Biden and Ukrainian President Petro
Poroshenko spoke on the phone after which the US condemned
"Russian-backed separatists" and the "heavy toll that the Russian-backed
offensive in the east was having on Ukraine's civilian population". (BBC News Europe : 29 January 2015)
"The EU has prepared a
draft statement for the foreign ministers of its 28 members to agree to
extend sanctions against Russia by six months, add new people to the
sanctions list and prepare new measures." (Reuters : Wed Jan 28, 2015)
But that,
"A decision on further economic sanctions on Russia is likely to be left to EU leaders who next meet on Feb. 12." (ibid Reuters)(my emphasis)
So whilst the White House will be 'putting its money where its mouth is' the EU will, yet again,
"have little momentum behind a push for broader measures at this stage, EU
diplomats said." (ibid Wall Street Journal)
One has to sometimes wonder whether it would be a useful exercise if those EU foreign ministers and leaders that support lifting sanctions against Putin's economy, his kleptocratic Russian clan,
and his proxies fighting in eastern Ukraine, should individualy appear on Ukrainian TV and simply tell the Ukrainian people that they will not support them in this their hour of need.
How many of them will be willing to do this on Ukrainian TV? How many of them will simply be too afraid? Or even if the whole of todays EU foreign ministers meeting can be televised throughout the EU, including Ukraine?
We await to see what this closed meeting of EU foreign ministers will decide today ........ what they have in store for the people of Ukraine. (to be continued)
As predicted, the war between Ukraine and Russia has intensified over the last week-end, and we now have Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers beginning to target civilians.
"Grad rockets rained down on residential areas of the Ukrainian city
of Mariupol on Saturday, killing at least 30 and wounding more than 90,
according to local authorities.
The rockets, apparently fired by pro-Russia rebels, came on the day
their leader announced an assault on the city, despite earlier denials
from rebel authorities that they were responsible." (Shaun Walkerin Donetsk : The Observer,
And whilst these rockets were raining down on residential areas in Mariupol, Putin was telling students in St. Petersburg that,
“We often say: Ukrainian army, Ukrainian army. But who is really
fighting [in eastern Ukraine]? There are official divisions of the armed
forces but to a great extent there are so-called voluntary nationalist
battalions. This is not even an army, it's a foreign legion. In this
case it's a foreign NATO legion,” Putin said, speaking before university
students in the city of St. Petersburg." (VoA : January 26, 2015)
Whilst NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed Putin's claim as "nonsense." (ibid VoA), the scary thing is that these students 'believe' him.
"Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister who currently serves as
president of the European Union, tweeted in a message, "Once again,
appeasement encourages the aggressor to greater acts of violence. Time
to step up our policy based on cold facts, not illusions." (ibid VoA) (my emphasis) Tusk is here referring to those European leaders who, until recently, talked of easing economic sanctions against Moscow.
We now wait to see just what the EU foreign ministers will come up with at their meeting on Thursday with the current Ukrainian issue on their agenda.
"Members of the U.S. House national security committees are warning that
we may soon see Russia’s nuclear weapons in Ukraine, and they are
calling on President Barack Obama to “acknowledge that Russian troops”
inside Ukraine “represent an invasion” by Vladimir Putin’s government." (The Inquisitr : January 24, 2015) (my emphasis)
The rapidity with which events are now unfolding in both Russia and eastern Ukraine has caught many western governments on the hop. Finally it is being rather grudgingly acknowledged that Putin is AT WAR with Ukraine. The footdragging by so many members of the EU over the invasion of Ukraine by Putin's Russia, in the hope that Putin is a reasonable person who can be persuaded to
stop supplying his proxies with weaponry
stop sending trained Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine to reinfornce his proxies
seal the border between Ukraine and Russia
help to enforce a ceasefire between his proxies, their Russian soldier reinforcements, and the Ukrainian army
attend proposed summits with Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande, to reach compromise agreements that could stop the escalating violence in eastern Ukraine;
"Signs emerged Friday of a major rebel offensive looming in eastern
Ukraine, which has seen a surge in fighting and deadly attacks despite
diplomatic efforts to craft a lasting peace deal.
One separatist leader said his pro-Russian rebels
have launched a multi-pronged offensive and won't join further peace
talks — but left unclear whether they would respect this week's
agreement to pull back heavy weapons from the front line." (Deseret News (Associated Press) : Friday, Jan. 23 2015) (my emphasis)
"Since we're attacking, there is no sense to have peace talks now,"
Aleksandr Zakharchenko, leader of the self-proclaimed People's Republic
of Donetsk, said in a meeting with university students, according to his
media office." (Victoria Butenko, Greg Botelho and Jason Hanna : CNN :
January 23, 2015)
"A top NATO official said the Russian-backed rebels in
eastern Ukraine have been beefed up and have pushed further west. U.S.
Air Force Gen. Philip Breedlove said air defense and electronic warfare
equipment have been detected in the area that, in the past, coincided
with the incursion of Russian troops into Ukraine." (ibid Mstyslav Chernov) (my emphasis)
Whilst Putin is rapidly ramping up his invasion of Ukraine, the silencecoming from his major supporters in the EU is positively deafening. Where is the 'fragrant' Mogherini, or Walter Steinheimer, or Renzi, or Hollande? Why are their voices now so silent?
Steinheimer Hollande Renzi Mogherini
Meanwhile, across the 'pond' in the US, as John T. Bennett reports,
Rep. Mike Turner
"Rep. Mike Turner, R-Ohio, in a telephone interview Thursday evening
with CongressWatch, wants Obama to "acknowledge that Russian troops"
inside Ukraine "represent an invasion."
A member of the
House Armed Services and Intelligence committees, Turner says it's time
for Obama to respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin with "a
military deterrent."
Administration officials "can
make it clear that Russia's actions will come at a price," he said. "I
think it needs to be a military deterrent." (Defense News : January 22, 2015) (my emphasis)
President Obama
However, like Steinheimer, Hollande, Renzi, and the 'fragrant' Mogherini, President Obama is also sitting on his hands in relation to the rapidly escalating and potentially cataclysmic events in eastern Ukraine. As John T. Bennett further reports,
"Obama and his administration have come under fire from some
congressional Republicans since his State of the Union address on
Tuesday evening. The members believe he said too little about Russia's
action in Ukraine, and was generally too soft on Moscow." rather echoing the stand that has, for months, being taken by Putin's major supporters in the EU. (my emphasis)
If Obama is sitting on his hands, watching whilst Putin, like Nero, is gleefully rubbing his hands together (with Patriarch Kirill at his side) whilst eastern Ukraine burns;
Angela Merkel is offering Putin economic incentives that really beggars belief.
As Justin Huggler reports,
"[she] has reportedly offered Russia
negotiations on a free trade agreement with the EU
in exchange for a peace deal in Ukraine" (The Telegraph : 23 Jan 2015)
However, as Huggler further explains,
"The motivations behind Mrs Merkel’s offer may not be wholly altruistic.
Germany has extensive trade links with Russia, and German businesses have
suffered from the EU sanctions as well as Russian ones." (ibid Huggler) (my emphasis)
Ironically, as major leaders in the US and the EU stand on the sidelines whilst Putin is instituting a full-scale invasion of Ukraine,
Henry Meyer and Irina Reznik are reporting that members of Putin's own 'kleprocratic Kremlin' clan are pleading with him to end the conflict in Ukraine.
"[Putin is] irking some of his richest friends, too, by snubbing their pleas to
end the conflict in Ukraine and ostracizing all but a handful of
hardliners." (Bloomberg : 23 January, 2015)
Yevgeny Primakov
"Yevgeny Primakov, a former premier, foreign minister and spymaster,
said Russia must avoid “self-isolation” over Ukraine and keep the door
open to cooperation with the U.S. and its allies in the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization.....
Alexei Kudrin
Another
longtime Putin ally, Alexei Kudrin, a former finance minister who sits
on the president’s Economic Council, an advisory body, said last month
that Russia faces a “full-fledged” economic crisis if it doesn’t repair
ties with the U.S. and Europe." (ibid Meyer and Reznik) (my emphasis)
Meyer and Reznik further report that,
"Putin is increasingly suspicious of men who owe their wealth to their
ties to him and who are being hurt the most by U.S. and European
sanctions, according to the people, who spoke on condition of anonymity
to avoid reprisal. ..... (echoes of what happened to Khodorkovsky?)
The core group around Putin is led by Security Council Secretary Nikolai
Patrushev, Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov, Foreign
Intelligence Service chief Mikhail Fradkov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Markov." (my emphasis)
Meyer and Reznik do not mention Patriarch Kirill as part of this core group because this former member of the KGB has to be publicly seen soley as the Patriarch of Russia. Kirill and Putin have to communicate with each other in the 'shadows', away from the prying eyes of anyone else.
Unfortunately for Merkel, this core group around Putin will simply not fall for her offer of 'free trade' negotiations. For this group the 'pride' of Russia is at stake. They simply cannot allow themselves to be defeated over Ukraine. For them the 'humiliation' of Russia will simply be too great, following so soon upon the heels after the collapse of the entire Soviet Union.
More than anything else, they are trying to pre-empt what will happen on the 16th February when the Ukraine Freedom Support Act, signed by Obama, comes into full effect.
"Ukraine ispoised to receive significant military assistance from the US
after President Barack Obama signed the Ukraine Freedom Support Act,
which experts say provides firm US backing for Kyiv's resistance to
Russian interference." (Ruslan Sharipov for Southeast European Times in Kyiv : 2014-12-26) (my emphasis)
The question we now all have to ask ourselves is, "Are we on the brink of World War III?"
Finally the world is beginning to realise that Ukraine is at war with Russia.
Doug Schoen
"Moscow won’t admit it, but Russia is at war with Ukraine.
It’s hard to draw any other conclusion from reports that Russian
regular forces have moved into eastern Ukraine and are attacking
Ukrainian military units amid a flare-up of violence this past week." (Doug Schoen : Forbes :
Doug Schoen further comments that,
"Russia can continue to feign ignorance, but this constitutes the most
dangerous, deeply irresponsible escalation of violence and tensions in
Ukraine since a little-observed ceasefire was signed in September. With his economy in shambles and increasingly politically isolated
from West, Putin seems determined to bring Ukraine down with him." (ibid Forbes) (my emphasis)
As he says,
"We have a moral obligation, not to mention considerable political
interests at stake, in ensuring that this does not happen and that
Ukraine is allowed to chart a course of successful, peaceful, and
prosperous development as an intact and independent country." (ibid Forbes) (my emphasis)
Donetsk airport has now fallen into rebel hands on the back of,
"...the arrival of thousands of
professional Russian troops to reinforce the rebels. Mr Poroshenko said on Wednesday that 2,000 troops and 200 tanks crossed the
border in recent days. He claimed a total of 9,000 Russian troops are
[now] occupying Ukrainian territory in the Donbass." (Roland Oliphant, Moscow : The Telegraph: 22 Jan 2015)
"Due to its location it is considered the "key" to the Donetsk
metropolis, the heart of the Donbass coalfield. The airport is located a
mere 10 kilometers (about 6 miles) from the city center, and it was
recently refurbished for $870 million (753 million euros)........
Thanks to its new runway, it could accommodate virtually all types of
aircraft. Due to its proximity to the separatist stronghold, the airport
is of strategic importance to both sides." (Deutsche Welle [DW] : 20.01.2015) (my emphasis)
"If we give up Donetsk, the enemy will advance to Kyiv or Lviv," Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said recently. " (ibid Deutsche Welle [DW])
The fall of Donetsk airport over the past 24 hours has to be viewed against,
"[t]he self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic [telling] Russian network Life News that it had formed its own air force, Kyiv Post reported, adding that if the claim is accurate, Ukraine could confront Russia-made combat aircraft targeting its airspace." (Kukil Bora : International Business Times : January 20 2015) (my emphasis)
Could this boast about forming an air force, that emanated from "the self-proclaimed Luhansk People’s Republic", be the underlying reason why the battle for Donetsk airport has been so fierce?
Will its new runway, which can easily be repaired, serve to accomodate Russian combat aircraft that will be flown by Russian pilots?
All of these recent developments have put paid to any proposed "Normandy-style" meeting of Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin, that was to be scheduled to take place in the very near future.
Yet again has Putin been let off the hook of having to be confronted by Poroshenko, Merkel, and Hollande by marionette Lavrov and the escalation of his war with Ukraine.
Is Putin setting himself up for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine?
It can be no co-incidence that suddenly,
"Patriarch Kirill, head of the Russian Orthodox Church, crossed Russia's
shifting line between Church and politics in his first-ever address
to the State Duma on Thursday, calling on lawmakers to ensure that
traditional moral values are safeguarded in the country's legislation."? (Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber: Moscow Times : Jan. 22 2015)
"Kirill also called for the revival of the Cossacks, a quasi-militant
group found predominantly in Russia and Ukraine, for the return of the
"solidarity" of the Soviet era to modern Russia and for increased
funding for Orthodox religious schools" (ibid Gabrielle Tétrault-Farber) (my emphasis)
This is nothing more nor less than a call to 'war' by Patriarch Kirill, the former "Tobacco Metropolitan " and KGB agent, whose alleged KGB agent’s codename was "Mikhailov". [Not for nothing was he called the "Tobacco Metropolitan" during the 1990's.] Kirill’s personal wealth was estimated to be $1.5 billion by sociologist Nikolai Mitrokhin in 2004, and at $4 billion by The Moscow News in 2006 (Wikipedia)
Is Patriarch Kirill now reinforcing Putin to begin an all-out invasion of Ukraine? Will the pulpits in Russia now be stirring up powerful Russian nationalist sentiments upon which Putin can ride his all-out invasion of Ukraine?
Henry Blodget reported yesterday from the World Economic Forum in Davos that,
" ... a high-ranking Ukrainian official just shared the Ukrainian government's current view of its conflict with Russia:
Fighting has resumed after a three-week ceasefire.
The administration sees signs that
Putin is escalating his forces, albeit in a limited way. The
administration does not currently see Putin amassing force for a major
invasion."
The Ukrainian government believes time is working against Putin. The
combination of economic sanctions, plunging oil prices, and the backlash
against Putin's aggression is putting Putin in an increasingly isolated
position. Putin is responding by escalating his forces. (Business Insider UK : Jan. 21, 2015, 2:49 PM) (my emphasis)
Furthermore that,
"Ukraine is frustrated with the lack of support from the West. " (ibid Henry Blodget) (my emphasis)
What is very significant, however, is that this high-ranking official,
" ..... applauded support from China" [for Ukraine]. (ibid Henry Blodget) (my emphasis)
In a Bloomberg interview at the Davos Forum yesterday, Poroshenko succinctly summed up the current situation in eastern Ukraine, and called upon the West to be more supportive of Ukraine in this, its time of need.
"The most important of Lavrov's spanners to be thrown into tonight's meeting is his denial that Russian soldiers without identifiable insignia have been [recently] spotted in [the] Luhansk region. "
And today we learn that,
"Steinmeier said the agreement had been “difficult work” and the talks,
which follow a fruitless round of negotiations last week, were “testing
the patience of all involved”. (Associated Press in Berlin : the guardian.com,
: Thursday 22 January 2015 06.09) (my emphasis)
I am somewhat reminded of the fairy tale about Pinnochio, whose nose became longer the more lies he told. Lavrov is currently the Pinnochio marionette of Putin.
Sergey Lavrov Pinnochio
And what was this agreement that was reached at this meeting in Berlin yesterday? Only that the,
"Diplomats from Russia and Ukraine agreed on Wednesday a dividing line
from where both sides should pull back their heavy weapons, just hours
after separatist forces deployed more arms and manpower to an emerging
flashpoint in eastern Ukraine." (ibid the guardian) (my emphasis)
For 'more manpower' read Russian soldiers!
What this means is that all the sophisticated Russian military equipment that has been streaming across into eastern Ukraine from Russia will not move back to Russia but will simply pull back to a dividing line in eastern Ukraine.
What Putin does NOT want is for the borders between Ukraine and Russia to be closed. So, even though his Russian soldiers and their armaments are willing to pull back to a dividing line in eastern Ukraine, they will still be able to move freely from Russia into Ukraine. Without the border being shut, Putin can maintain his strategy of a 'frozen conflict', a strategy that mirrors what he did in Abkhazia.
Poroshenko has seen through this 'ploy' of Putin. This is why he says that,
“But the solution is simple: stop supplying them weapons, ammunition ,
carry weapons and close the border. If you want to discuss something
else, I think that you [Putin] do not support the peace “- protested Poroshenko." (Ukrainian Crisis: 21-1-2015)
For marionette Lavrov therefore to say that,
" Moscow believes the largely Russian-speaking eastern regions should remain within Ukraine", and that,
"We hope the contacts to be held in the foreseeable future
at various levels and in various formats will help move ahead in this
direction," (Gabriela Baczynska : Reuters : Jan 21 2015) (my emphasis) is yet another of his 'diplomatic' Pinnochio statements.
The 'border' issue is absolutely critical, and it is not co-incidental that Lithuania has similar concerns over its border with Russia.
Lithuanian Defence Minister Juozas Olekas
"Lithuania's defense ministry is advising its citizens how to react in
case of war, reflecting jitters over neighboring Russia's intervention
in Ukraine and a recent increase of reported airspace violations in the
Baltic region. ..... Russia's increased military activity in the Baltic Sea area has prompted
some officials to compare it to the Cold War. Part of Lithuania's
border runs along the Russian Kaliningrad enclave, where Moscow has
important military bases." (KLTV : Vilnius, Lithuania : Jan 2015) (my emphasis)
And with all this 'diplomatic' to-ing and fro-ing by marionette Lavrov, this is what Putin's proxies are doing in Donetsk.
As Putin continues to pour Russian soldiers and arms across the Ukrainian border into eastern Ukraine, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has once again let the Putin-cat out of the bag,
"Lavrov emphasized that a lasting settlement in eastern Ukraine could be
achieved only if the Ukrainian government fulfills its pledge to provide
broad autonomy to the east and provide security guarantees to the
rebels." (The Associated Press :
Published Wednesday, January 21, 2015)
Exactly the same diplomatic ploy was used by Putin / Medvedev to wrest the teritories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia from Georgia in 2008. This is what Medvedev, then President of Russia, said,
"As concerns South Ossetia – it’s our unambiguous, absolutely clear position – its about repelling direct military aggression." (Wikipedia)
Abkhazia’s Raul Khadzhimba and Vladimir Putin 2014
In the case of Abkhazia; soon after their 'sham' elections to declare themselves a 'Republic',
"..... [u]nder a treaty signed by Vladimir Putin and Abkhazia’s leader – both
former KGB officers – a Russian commander will lead a new joint force of
Russian and Abkhaz troops. Abkhazia also agreed to harmonise its
foreign and defence policies with Moscow’" (Luke Harding and agencies : The Guardian, Tuesday 25 November 2014)
What was done in Abkhazia last year is identical to what Lavrov has stated should be done in the rebel-occupied territories in eastern Ukraine viz.
" .... to provide
broad autonomy to the east and provide security guarantees to the
rebels.", of course with Putin's Russia providing the security guarantees to the rebels ..."
However Ukraine is simply not Georgia. This is the big mistake that Putin has made. Flush with his success in annexing Crimea, Putin assumed that he could use the same "frozen conflict" tactic to start tearing Ukraine apart. The overthrow of Yanukovych gave Putin his raison d'etre for invading eastern Ukraine, and his attempting to implement the same type of 'frozen' confllict that he instituted in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
To this extent Putin is doing everything in his power to ensure that any proposal to reconstitute the failed 'Normandy format' meeting that was to take place in Astana on the 15th Jan 2015 will be similarly met with new demands that will lead to it being aborted.
Thus Lavrov is now 'proposing' that,
restoring a previously agreed line of division in eastern Ukraine that was included in the Minsk proposals
[h]e said nothing about the rebels giving up their territorial gains [even though] the separatist forces had seized 500 square kilometres (190 sq. miles) of territory since the division line was agreed.
the Ukrainian government must fulfill its pledge to provide broad autonomy to the east
In other words, Putin wants an Abkhazia in eastern Ukraine that can then be 'legally' absorbed into Russia.
Lavrov's 'deafening' silence about about the rebels giving up their seized territory since the division line was agreed upon at the Minsk meeting in September 2014 is due, in no small part, to the fact that,
"A significant number of Russian soldiers without identifiable insignia
have been spotted in Luhansk region," [Andriy] Lysenko told journalists.
"There
is continued mass shelling of positions and a desire by rebels to expand
the territory under their control."(Deutsche Welle [DW] : 21.01.2015)
(Deutsche Welle [DW] : 21.01.2015)
Russian soldiers in Crimea
Of course, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has denied the claims of Andriy Lysenko that Russian soldiers have been directly involved in this mass shelling. This is somewhat similar to the denials that Putin gave about Russian soldiers being involved in the criminal invasion of Ukrainian Crimea, only for it to be later admitted that, "Yes .... the 'little green men' that invaded Crimea were, in fact, Russian soldiers." (cf. BBC News Europe : 11 March 2014)
" .... said on Wednesday she hoped a new round of
talks with Ukraine and Russia in Berlin could help implement an elusive
ceasefire in eastern Ukraine but warned against expecting too much,
given another upsurge in the violence." (Reuters : Wed Jan 21, 2015)
Furthermore that,
"We don't want another meeting of presidents that yields no
results," Merkel told a news conference. "Therefore I hope that today
maybe some structures can be set up.
"But I'm not sure, I don't want to get hopes up too much," she
added. "It is clear that the ceasefire is getting more and more
fragile." (ibid Reuters)
"The Berlin talks, [with Foreign Ministers from Ukraine, France, Russia and Germany], and due to begin at 8 p.m. (20.00 GMT) [today], ...... will be the fourth such meeting hosted by Germany. The last round ended with a joint statement acknowledging they were not ready for the Astana summit, which had been tentatively scheduled for last Thursday."(Stephen Brown and Sabine Siebold : Mail Online : 21 January 2015)
Pavlo Klimkin (U) Laurent Fabius (F) Sergey Lavrov (R) Walter Steinmeir (G)
Lavrov has already readied the spanners that he will throw into this meeting to, yet again, get Putin off the hook from having to attend any meeting between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin himself.
Poroshenko Merkel Hollande Putin
The most important of Lavrov's spanners to be thrown into tonight's meeting is his denial that Russian soldiers without identifiable insignia have been [recently] spotted in Luhansk region.
"I say every time: if you allege this so confidently, present the
facts," Lavrov said before departing for Berlin for talks with his
Ukrainian, French, and German counterparts. "Before demanding from us
that we stop doing something, please present proof that we have done
it." (ibid Deutsche Welle)
Poroshenko presents evidence, and a report from a BBC reporter in Kiev.
BBC World News : 21 Jan 2015 : 19.20 (BST)
For Lavrov to agree at this meeting to a new 'Normandy format' summit between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin is, as Merkel has said, "I don't want to get hopes up too much".
The most significant indicator that Putin is simply not interested in such a summit taking place is expressed by the fact that today Medvedev warned that,
"According to the agreement, the electricity is supplied to Ukraine and
to the Crimean Federal District, i.e. to Russia. That's 1, and nothing
else. Secondly: If our Ukrainian partners do not like Russia’s
electricity prices, we can always raise them." (Unian Information Agency : 21.01.2015) (my emphasis)
This rather says it all.
The speed with which Putin is accelerating his invasion of Ukraine via the Donbas region has caught many of his supporters in the EU by surprise. This is most evident by the fact that, as Adrian Croft and Robin Emmott reported yesterday,
"European Union foreign ministers said on Monday there were no grounds to
lift economic sanctions against Russia despite conciliatory proposals
from the EU's foreign policy chief as violence intensified in eastern
Ukraine." (blog entry)
And this morning (20 Jan 2015) we learn from Victoria Butenko that,
"Russian
military forces and equipment have entered Ukraine, Prime Minister
Arseniy Yatsenyuk says, according to a report from Ukraine's state-run
media on Monday.
"He
continued: "Tanks, GRAD multiple rocket systems, BUK and SMERCH systems,
radio electronic intelligence systems are not sold at local Donetsk
street markets. Only the Russian army and Defense Ministry have them." (CNN : 20 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)
This new wave of Russian soldiers entering eastern Ukraine are supplementing the,
" ... 8,500 Russian regular troops [that Ukraine claims] are [already] helping the rebels .." (BBC News : 19 January 2015)
Russia now practically has the equivalent of an army division fighting in eastern Ukraine, commanded at least by a Russian a major general.
"Divisions perform major tactical operations
for the corps and can conduct sustained battles and engagements. One
division is made up of at least three maneuver brigades with between
10,000 and 20,000 soldiers, depending on the national army involved." (Michael Moran: CFR) (my emphasis)
Given that Putin has now placed himself firmly in the 'military' camp, with the Russian economy falling around his ears, can he handle both of these crises simultaneously?
Khodorkovsky is of the opinion that Putin cannot handle both of these crises simultaneously.
"Putin and his [kleptocratic] Kremlin clan cannot handle more than one crisis at a time ... Right now there are two [major] crises ... Ukraine and the Russian economy ..."
And right now conflicts are beginning to emerge between those concerned about
the Russian economy, and those whose minds are, like Putin's, fixated on the war in eastern Ukraine.
German Gref
As German Gref, Sberbank's chairman and president, recently stated,
"But to be honest, we understand very little about what the government [read 'Putin'] will do [about the economy]."(Elena Holodny : Business Insider UK : Jan. 14, 2015) (my emphasis)
Thus, whilst Putin is pouring yet more Russian soldiers and military equipment across the border into eastern Ukraine, as reported by Agence France Press (AFP) 16 hours ago (current GMT: 11.10),
"Russia's battered economy will shrink by a far worse-than-expected 4.8
percent this year, as plunging oil prices add to fallout from the
Ukraine crisis, the EBRD development bank forecast Monday." (Yahoo News : 20 Jan 2015)
It is therefore no wonder that,
"MOSCOW (AFP) – Faced with a crippling recession, Russian authorities are
coming in for growing criticism from economic insiders concerned over a
lack of clear policies to deal with the crisis." (Borneo Bulletin : Tuesday, 20 January 2015)
This vindicates Khodorkovsky's argument about Putin and his Kremlin cohorts not being able to handle more than one crisis at a time.
Where is the Obama Administration in all of this? Senator Chris Murphy (Dem) explains very clearly in a recentCNN (20 Jan 2015) interview that,
the US is not going to fight a proxy war against Russia inside eastern Ukraine
the Ukrainian army is at a disadvantage against the Russian army
the US needs to start sending more significant military assistance to Ukraine
economic sanctions are not in the short run convincing Russia to pull back
this [war] is not ending anytime soon
President Obama
Whilst President Obama will not immediately send 'significant military assistance' to Ukraine we can, however, expect him to fulfill his obligations of a law that he signed on Tuesday, December 16, 2014, and that provides for financial support for military aid for Ukraine. The bill directly mandates the President of the United States to
implement this financial support for military aid for Ukraine within 60 days from the signing of the bill. Expect, therefore, a detailed
executive decree to be announced to this effect around the 16 Feb 2015.
No doubt Putin himself is well aware that the clock is ticking down towards Poroshenko receiving sophisticated military equipment from the US.
He has a race against time before US military aid starts landing on Ukrainian soil.
This is why he is now desperately sending,
"Tanks, GRAD multiple rocket systems, BUK and SMERCH systems,
radio electronic intelligence systems " across the border into eastern Ukraine. (ibid Victoria Butenko)
"Last week the European
parliament passed a resolution stating that "there are now no
objections or legal restrictions to prevent Member States from providing
defensive arms to Ukraine" and that “the EU should explore ways to
support the Ukrainian government in enhancing its defence capabilities and the
protection of Ukraine’s external borders.” (my emphasis)
Furthermore that,
"Putin’s response was to raise
the stakes yet again, gambling Europeans would rather get dragged into a proxy
war than swallow the bitter pill of an economic downturn should fresh sanctions
cause Russia to collapse entirely" (Kyiv Post : Jan. 20, 2015, 1:35 a.m.) (my emphasis)
Putin is not raising the stakes. Putin's current actions can be best described as that of a person who is very fast running out of options. He has painted himself into a corner, and his only response is to 'lash out'. He knows that the clock is ticking down towards either his capitulation or a Europe-wide war that is simply too ghastly to contemplate. That is why he is now very very dangerous.
Vladimir Frolov, president of LEFF Group (Moscow), a government relations and PR company, writing in The Moscow Times yesterday (Jan. 18 2015 18:35) has finally revealed that,
" Moscow is not exactly rushing to implement Article 4 of the Minsk
Protocol that requires it to withdraw its forces from Ukraine and return
the border with Russia to Ukrainian control."
Furthermore,
"He [Putin] wants to leverage Russia's military support for the separatists
to impose on Kiev a Bosnia-style constitutional arrangement that would
grant the "republics," a special status within Ukraine with veto power
over its security policy.
Hence, he doubles down on military aid to the separatists, to push further against the line of control. Continued fighting gives Putin leverage with Europe that he hopes
to corral into forcing Kiev to accept Russia's demands for a
"constitutional reform." Any settlement ends this leverage." (my emphasis)
Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Mogherini, the European Union's foreign policy chief and Putin admirer, reported 2 hours ago (current time: BST: 10.00 am) that,
"... [a]ny alleviation of
EU sanctions against Russia will only happen if there are improvements
on the ground in Ukraine and the return of violence there is not good
news, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Monday.
Federica Mogherini told reporters in Brussels that
Monday's meeting of EU foreign ministers would not take any decision on
sanctions." (Reuters : Jan. 19 2015: )
"However, that 'Realpolitic Circle' in the EU that were consistently calling for the sanctions against Russia to be removed are themselves currently caught up in a dilemma now that Putin has scuppered the Astana meeting, turned off the Russian gas taps to eastern Europe, and is massing his army on the Ukrainian border for a full scale invasion of Ukraine."
Mogherini Hollande Steinmeister Renzi
The 'fragrant' Mogherini's statement this morning that sanctions against Putin's Russia will only be alleviated if Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine 'lay down their arms', only seems to confirm the fact that she, herself, is caught up in a dilemma over what to do about Putin's ramping up of his war against Ukraine.
The tricky position of Putin's supporters in the EU is further compounded by the facts that,
Natalia Zinets
"Ukrainian troops recaptured almost all the territory of Donetsk
airport in eastern Ukraine they had lost to separatists in recent weeks.." (Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch : Reuters : Jan. 18, 2015, 3:20 PM)
Vladimir Frolov says, " Continued fighting gives Putin leverage with Europe that he hopes
to corral into forcing Kiev to accept Russia's demands for a
"constitutional reform.", and
Poroshenko and Merkel have recently stated that, "The key pre-conditions for further peace talks are the
closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy
weaponry and the release of all hostages .." (Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina
: Bloomberg : 2015-01-18 : T10:01:21)
Putin will simply NOT back down, irrespective of the costs imposed upon both the Russian and Ukrainian peoples by his actions.
Highly indicative of the fact that he simply will not back down is his proposal, contained in a letter to Poroshenko, that was aired on the Russian television channel NTV, and that proposed,
"... urgent measures for the cessation of mutual shelling, and also the
rapid withdrawal by the sides in the conflict of means of destruction
with a calibre higher than 100 mm (4")". (ibid Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch) (my emphasis)
In other words, Putin is simply saying that this size gun is okay because it is a 100 mm (4") caliber gun
but this one is NOT because it exceeds 100mm (4"). It is a 5-Inch/54-caliber (Mk 45) lightweight gun
In other words, Putin does not want to de-escalate the fighting between the Ukrainian and Russian armies but merely wants 'smaller' guns to be used. There really is something rather obscene in this proposal of Putin.
Merkel and Poroshenko are thus quite right in their pre-conditions for further peace talks viz. "the
closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy
weaponry and the release of all hostages .." In their case, heavy weaponry includes Putin's 100mm guns.
Quite rightly, Poroshenko is treating this obscene proposal of Putin with the 'diplomatic' contempt that it deserves.
"A Poroshenko spokesman said the Ukrainian president would not comment on the letter this evening." (ibid Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch) (my emphasis)
"European Union foreign ministers said on Monday there were no grounds to
lift economic sanctions against Russia despite conciliatory proposals
from the EU's foreign policy chief as violence intensified in eastern
Ukraine.
Linas Linkevicius
"I don't think
that we now should think how to re-engage. Russia should think how to
re-engage," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius told reporters
as he arrived for a meeting where Mogherini's paper was to be
discussed.
Mogherini's suggestion has gone down badly with some of the EU's more
hawkish states, such as Lithuania, which suggested it would send the
wrong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the EU's resolve
was cracking." (Reuters : Jan 19 2015)
It would seem that the wings of the 'fragrant' Mogherini, Putin's admirer, have been clipped this morning. This is also sending a very strong signal to Putin's EU supporters that they are no longer going to be allowed to occupy centre stage in determining how the EU sanctions against Russia are to be dealt with. This is particularly also a blow for Steinheimer, and indicates just how wide and un-bridgeable the gulf between himself and Merkel has become.
Even more critical, Putin's assumption that he could rely on his supporters in the EU to get those sanctions against Russia lifted has now completely evaporated.
DEMONSTRATION FOR PEACE THROUGHOUT UKRAINE 18 Jan 2015
If, yesterday, Putin was cornered, today's decision at the EU not to lift the sanctions against Russia has left him with practically no room for manouvre. If he was dangerous yesterday, today he is EXTREMELY dangerous.
"European Union foreign ministers will gather here in an emergency
meeting to-day, 29th Jan. 2015, to discuss the EU’s response to an assault by
Russian-backed rebels on the southeastern Ukrainian city of Mariupol, EU Foreign Affairs Chief Federica Mogherini said on Twitter on Sunday." (Matthew Dalton And Laurence Norman : Wall Street Journal : Jan 27, 2015)
