Will Putin be able to regain his fallen stature when addressing the UN Assembly?

John Hall reports that,

"Ukrainian prosecutors are preparing charges against the director of a winery in Russian-occupied Crimea for allegedly uncorking a 240-year-old bottle for Russian President Vladimir Putin and former Italian premier Silvio Berlusconi.
........
Massandra was Ukrainian government property before being nationalized by Russia, following its annexation of Crimea in March 2014. It has rare wine and sherry dating back more than 200 years in its collection; one bottle fetched nearly £32,000 in 2001." (Mail Online : 18 September 2015) (my emphasis)

 Let us pause to remind ourselves about only some of the criminal charges that have been brought against the disgraced former prime minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi, a bosom buddy of Putin.

(1) Connection to the Mafia: Defendant together with Marcello Dell'Utri for money laundering.
(2) All Iberian 1: 23 billion lira (€11.9 million) bribe to Bettino Craxi via an offshore bank account code-named All Iberian.
(3) Mediaset trial 2: on a personal tax evasion of €7.3 million committed in 1994–98 through illicit trade of movie rights between secret fictive companies
(4) Pedophilia: "Silvio Berlusconi is to go on trial on 6 April, charged with paying an underage prostitute and then trying to cover up the alleged offence by abusing his position as Italy's prime minister. ( John Hooper : Guardian : Tuesday 15 February 2011)

So whilst, as reported by Unian,

"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said that President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk have made important progress in the fight against corruption." (Unian : 19.09.2015) (my emphasis),

Putin and Berlusconi are publicly displaying, and reinforcing, the Mafia-like criminality of Putin's regime.

As Vice-President Joe Biden stated in his address at the Brookings Institute (30 May, 2015),

"So long as Ukraine leaders keep faith with the project of reform, the U.S. will continue to stand with them.” (UA Position : 30 May, 2015) (my emphasis)

Petro Poroshenko, speaking at the recent YES (Yalta European Strategy) Conference in Kiev, proposed that,

"Russia [..] be stripped of its UN Security Council veto, calling the country a “challenge to the democratic world” with “deadly new imperial ambitions”.(Matthew Day : The Telegraph : 11 Sep 2015) (my emphasis)

This "challenge to the democratic world " of Putin is best illustrated by his current Syrian gambit, as reported by Ivan Nechepurenko (right) of the Moscow Times.

 "The recent flood of media reports claiming that Russia is boosting its military presence in Syria has detracted international attention from the Ukraine conflict in what analysts say is likely a deliberate ploy on Moscow's part.
.......
“Syria is a bigger problem for the West, so Russia can use the uproar about it to camouflage what is happening in Ukraine,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst. ( Moscow Times : Sep. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

What Putin is particularly aiming to camouflage in the rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine is, as outlined by the Deputy Head of the [Ukrainian] Presidential Administration Kostiantyn Yeliseyev (right),

"Ukraine has held consultations with the German side today to determine what measures should be taken to prevent militants from holding elections [in occupied eastern Ukraine]

...
"We hope that these messages and signals will finally reach the corresponding capital [Moscow], and these "elections" will be canceled, otherwise they will have unpredictable and negative implications for the entire process," Yeliseyev said." (UNIAN : 18.09.2015) (my emphasis)

What is even more disconcerting is that the real aim of Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine is to,

"Despite [opposite] claims, the leaders of DPR and LPR want to hold [local] elections at the same time with the rest of Ukraine, that is on October 25, in order to obtain legitimate authority over the whole of Donbas, not just a small part of it, which is now under their control, - in case of reintegration [of the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions],"- the source has told the publication." (UNIAN : 05.08.2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is now trying to stoke the fires of disparate groups of 'separatists' throughout the EU and the US.

As Alec Luhn reports,

"The Russian government has helped fund a conference in Moscow to bring together separatists from the United States and eastern Ukraine, despite cracking down on its own dissidents.

...

Among international participants were representatives of Sinn Féin, the Catalan Solidarity for Independence party and Italy’s European Communitarian party Millennium, as well as separatist groups from Hawaii and Puerto Rico and the US-based radical black power Uhuru Movement." (The Guardian : Sunday 20 September 2015) (my emphasis)

This conference was simply to function as a 'legitimization' of the demands of Putin over control of eastern Ukraine, as voiced by his rebel proxies.

While Putin is subsidizing these disparate extreme left-wing groups in the EU and the US, the Russian people are having to tighten their belts even further as the cost of Putin's war with Ukraine, and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, bears down upon them.

As  Anna Andrianova (left) reports,

"A slump in Russian consumption showed no letup last month while a drop in investment stretched into the longest in two decades, highlighting the toll on the economy from lower oil prices and the latest wave of ruble depreciation.

Real wages declined 9.8 percent from a year earlier after a 9.2 percent drop in July, the Federal Statistics Service in Moscow said Thursday. Retail sales tumbled 9.1 percent on an annual basis, matching a revised 9.1 percent plunge a month earlier." (Bloomberg Business : September 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

 And whilst Putin's 'Mafia' cronies and his 'siloviki' are lining their pockets, whilst the ordinary Russian citizen is having to bear all the costs of his 'imperialist dreams of Novorossiya',

Kalyeena Makortoff (right) reports that,

"The conflict in eastern Ukraine hasn't hurt the country's reputation as the breadbasket of Europe, a Ukraine minister told CNBC on Tuesday.

 Oleksiy Pavlenko, the Ukrainian Minister of Agriculture and Food, said agricultural exports were still thriving despite tensions between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops surrounding key farming land in Donetsk and Luhansk." (CNBC : Tuesday, 15 Sep 2015) (my emphasis)

 

Yet, while Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk is predicting that Russia will,

"...impose a full embargo on Ukrainian agricultural exports in 2016 when the free trade zone agreement with the EU comes into force..." (Interfax Ukraine : 21.08.2015),

Dmitry Medvedev was skeptical about the "agreement with Ukraine and the EU on free trade zone agreement issues by the end of the year." (ibid Interfax Ukraine)

This was, however, in August of this year, and Medvedev may have been banking on the fact that the Czech Republic may veto the Ukraine-EU Free Trade Agreement.

Unfortunately for Medvedev,

"The lower house of Czech parliament passed the Association Agreement between the European Union and Ukraine at its session shortly before midnight on Thursday (17 Sept., 2015), after months of protraction and despite strong criticism of the opposition Communist Party (KSČM)." (Prague Post : 18 September 2015) (my emphasis)

President Miloš Zeman of the Czech Republic, a staunch supporter of Putin, is now legally bound to ratify it.

Putin has now put on, what Anna Nemtsova (left) describes as, "Putin's Pre-UN Charm Offensive"

She is, however, rather dubious whether this 'charm offensive' is fake, or whether it signifies some sort of breakthrough between Putin and the West.

As she states,

"Is Russian President Vladimir Putin launching a charm offensive that promises real breakthroughs, or just repackaging long-held objectives?" (The Daily Beast : 21.09.15)

Stanislav Belkovsky, a former adviser to the Kremlin, is of the opinion that,

"“Coming to the UN, Putin seeks the West’s appreciation for his efforts to fight against the Islamic State,” says Belkovsky. 
“He dreams of meeting with Obama—Putin secretly adores Obama—and for the sake of that meeting, he temporarily freezes the conflict in Eastern Ukraine. But if the UN members mistreat him, which is a very likely, the conflict will burn again.” (ibid Anna Nemtsova) (my emphasis)

These speculations are just that, 'speculations'. 

That Putin supposedly 'dreams' of meeting President Obama simply does not ring true, when considering that he shared a stolen 240 year-old bottle of wine with Berlusconi, the Mafia-linked criminal and sexual predator, but a few days ago in annexed Ukrainian Crimea.

As the old saying goes, 

"If wishes were horses, Beggars would ride."

(to be continued)

Will Putin's Syrian gambit succeed?

At the 12th Yalta European Strategy conference, held in Kiev during the weekend of the 12th and 13th September, Carl Bildt  (left) stated that,

...“we (the EU) just gave another 86 billion euros to Greece! We must support Ukraine — it will take a lot — but if we do it, it will be a shining example.” (John Llyod (right) :Reuters : September 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

Radek Sikorski (left) of Poland also stated at this conference that,

“I don’t think the EU is serious about its eastern strategy. We must tell (Russian President Vladimir) Putin he cannot win — and if he moves further into Ukraine, we will deliver arms.” (ibid John Llyod) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"Strobe Talbott (right), former U.S. deputy secretary of state and now head of the Brookings Institution, said he believed that, on the Russian side, “the cease fire is not an attempt to get peace, but to lull the west — perhaps especially Paris — into dropping its guard.”

President Francois Hollande of France, a guarantor with Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel, of the truce, is keenest that the Western sanctions against Russia be lifted, citing observance of the ceasefire." (ibid John Llyod) (my emphasis)

To the current ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, that Putin is using to lull the west into "dropping its guard" over his intentions in Ukraine, we can now add his build-up of Russian military forces and equipment in Syria, together with the 'refugee crisis' now taking place in the EU.

This build-up of Putin's military forces in Syria is coinciding with the building of a huge military base near the Ukrainian border.

As Anton Zverev reports,

"Russia has started to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters : Wed Sep 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Similarly, Ivan Nechepurenko (right) of the Moscow Times reports that,

"The recent flood of media reports claiming that Russia is boosting its military presence in Syria has detracted international attention from the Ukraine conflict in what analysts say is likely a deliberate ploy on Moscow's part.
.......
“Syria is a bigger problem for the West, so Russia can use the uproar about it to camouflage what is happening in Ukraine,” said Dmitry Oreshkin, an independent political analyst. ( Moscow Times : Sep. 15 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin may be patting himself on the back that the Syrian refugees, and ISIS in Syria, have allowed him to divert the gaze of the international community away from his war with Ukraine.

Indeed, so much so that he believes that Angela Merkel and Francoise Hollande will,

"..... [i]f something is not implemented [in the upcoming meeting of the Normandy Four] then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Denis Dyomkin : Reuters : Fri Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately for Putin, NATO has NOT taken its eye off the Ukrainian ball.

As reported by Mark MacKinnon,

"Canadian troops arrive in Ukraine to train soldiers fighting separatists."

...[at the beginning of NATO's] Operation Unifier, the Canadian military’s mission to help train Ukrainian army units for war against the Russian-backed separatists who control swaths of eastern Ukraine.....

The 200 Canadians from the 1st Battalion of the Petawawa, Ont.-based Royal Canadian Regiment who formally began their mission on Monday, will initially work with the 30th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian army teaching tactics, marksmanship and combat medicine, as well as how to deal with improvised explosive devices..(The Globe and Mail : Monday, Sep. 14, 2015)

Furthermore, Ryan Maass informs us that,

"U.S. military assistance to Ukraine expands to include training of active-duty troops in addition to the country's recently formed national guard."  

A new rotation of troops from the 173rd Airborne Brigade are set to train up to five battalions of Ukrainian soldiers, as the conflict with Russian-backed rebels in Eastern Ukraine continues. The paratroops are no strangers to the region, rotating soldiers into the country for the program known as Fearless Guardian since April. The program's goal is to beef up and reform the Ukrainian military." (UPI : Sept. 15, 2015) (my emphasis) 

On the Ukrainian economic front, Shawn Donnan in Washington and Roman Olearchy tell us that,

“There is the prospect for additional financing from the United States and from other sources as well,” a senior US Treasury official told the Financial Times. “For Ukraine to be successful in this environment it will require support from the United States, from Europe, from other bilateral and multilateral sources.” (Financial Times : September 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The World Bank’s Board of Executive Directors today approved a US$500 million IBRD operation to finance the Second Programmatic Financial Sector Development Policy Loan in Ukraine. This new financing supports a number of high-priority reform measures in the banking sector in response to the financial crisis in Ukraine." (The World Bank : September 15, 2015)

These military and economic developments in Ukraine comes just as Putin has been forced to,

"... [confirm] the primacy of Nord Stream—a natural gas pipeline through the Baltic Sea—in its efforts to replace Ukrainian transit routes for gas exports to Europe, diminishing the likely role to be played by its southern counterpart, Turkish Stream".

.........

"In the energy world, all eyes were on Putin to see whether he and his Chinese hosts would announce just how they planned to implement either the giant $55 billion program concluded in May 2014 to bring Russian gas to China by the eastern route from Skovorodino to northwest China or—Russia’s preference—a pipeline through the Altai pass into eastern China, provisionally costing $18.5 billion.

The silence surrounding these projects almost certainly indicates that Russia and China have not only still to reach an agreement on which line should be developed first, but on such basic issues—assumed to have been settled sixteen months ago—as the price of the gas, the timing of the project implementation and, above all, whether China should have a role in Russian upstream development as a quid pro quo for lending Russia some $25 billion for project development.(John M. Roberts (right): Atlantic Council : September 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

As John Roberts (ibid) says, "Russia's Gazprom [is] Unable to Do Without Europe"

This underscores Ulrich Speck's contention that,

 

"In Ukraine, the Kremlin's overarching goal has been to bring that country back under Russian control. But as Ukraine has become a stronger state that is integrating itself with the West, the likelihood for the Kremlin's success is getting smaller every day.

 

In order to distract from this strategic defeat, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased his military engagement in Syria. " (Real Clear World : September 15, 2015)

And lest we forget,

(to be continued)

Putin at the UN, and his military buildup on the Ukrainian border

Denis Dyomkin reports that,

"The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France will agree to roll-over a peace deal for eastern Ukraine if it is not fully implemented this year as intended, the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, (right) said on Friday.

The so-called Minsk agreements state that various provisions must be implemented before the end of this year. Ushakov said the most important thing was to get them in place as soon as possible and within the existing framework.

"If something is not implemented then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Reuters : Fri Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

This pre-emptive and categoric demand emanating from Putin's Kremlin, even BEFORE the upcoming meeting between himself, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko, simply does NOT square with the latest call of Poroshenko that,

"...Russia pull out thousands of its troops after warning of Putin's "deadly new imperial ambitions".
...
Mr Poroshenko's stark warning comes ahead of joint meeting with Russian, German and French leaders next month. ....He said:

"A full withdrawal of all occupation forces from Ukrainian territory and closing the Ukrainian-Russian border: these are the two main preconditions for peace and stability in the Donbass." (Oli Smith : Express : Fri, Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)


The question that now raises its head is:

(1) "Given that Putin will be clamoring for an extension of the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols, and that 

(2) Poroshenko is calling for exactly the opposite viz. that ALL of the Minsk2 protocols be implemented by the specified deadline of 31st December, 2015,  

what, really, will be the purpose of their proposed October 2 meeting in Paris?"

If we are to believe the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov (cf. above), then neither Merkel, nor Hollande, will be pressing Putin to fully implement Minsk2 by the 'deadline' date. 

Is this pre-emptive extension of the full implementation of Minsk2 really the agreement that Putin, Merkel, and Hollande came to during their most recent 90 minute Skype Meeting on September 9?

As reported by the Kremlin,

"Particular attention (during this Skype telephone meeting) was given to implementing the political provisions of the Minsk Agreements, first and foremost carrying out a constitutional reform in Ukraine, including legislating special status for the Donbass regions, as well as organising local elections and adopting a law on amnesty. In this regard, Vladimir Putin once again stressed the need to establish a full-fledged, direct dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives from southeast Ukraine." (Kremlin.ru : September 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Nowhere was the withdrawal of Putin's Russian forces mentioned, which indicates that this will simply NOT be implemented according to Minsk2.

Furthermore, as Anton Zverev reports,

"Russia has started to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters : Wed Sep 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

As RFE/RL also informs us,

"Speaking to RFE/RL on September 10, a NATO spokesman said that, "Overall, NATO remains concerned about Russia's military buildup near Ukraine's borders and its continued attempts to destabilize Ukraine." (RFE/RL : 10.09.2015) (my emphasis)

Against this backdrop of the military buildup of Putin's army near the Ukrainian border, Putin is to address the UN General Assembly on 28th September.

Julian Borger, reporting on Wednesday 29 July 2015, speculated that,

"It promises to be a rhetorical battle of the titans, on a scale not seen for at least a decade. 

On a Monday morning in late September, Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani, Xi Jinping and François Hollande are all scheduled to deliver speeches at the United Nations in New York, setting out their visions of the geopolitical landscape at the outset of a highly uncertain era." (Guardian :  Wednesday 29 July 2015) (my emphasis)

Somini Sengupta also speculates that,

"President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could have an audience with Pope Francis on the sidelines of the development summit meeting here this month — but only, the Vatican envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday, if Mr. Putin gets here in time.

According to diplomatic protocol, the pope is to hold a bilateral meeting with the country that presides over the United Nations Security Council and only with its head of state. In September, that is Russia. Hence, Mr. Putin." (New York Times : Sept. 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

The war between Ukraine and Putin cannot be removed from the backdrop of this "rhetorical battle of the Titans" at the UN, as Julian Borger so aptly describes it. 

What happens in Ukraine between now and that expected "battle of the Titans" at the UN will either put the final nail in the coffin of Minsk2 or attempt to breathe life back into it.

(to be continued)

Putin, Syria, and Ukraine. Putin's dangerous gamble.

In the three-way Skype call between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande on Sat Aug 29, 2015, Putin re-iterated,

"...Russia's calls for direct dialogue between Kiev and rebel representatives and constitutional reforms agreed with the rebel regions." (John Irish, Jason Bush and Paul Carrel : Reuters : Sat Aug 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Since then, events that initially seemed far removed from the war between Putin and Ukraine have given Putin the 'bargaining chips' that he so desperately needs to help extricate himself from the corner into which he has painted himself over the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols.

At the same time, both Merkel and Hollande now see a way out of the EU sanctions against Putin that is causing so much pain in their own economies. 

The Syrian refugee crisis that has erupted in the EU has been further exacerbated by Putin for, among other reasons, to give added impetus to his stand that there must be ,"direct dialogue between Kiev and rebel representatives", a demand that he knows will rightly be rejected by Poroshenko. 

As Leonid Bershidsky (left) writes,

"Persistent reports in recent days indicate that Russia is increasingly involved in the war in Syria. The involvement is stealthy and apparently not as heavy as in eastern Ukraine, but it creates interesting prospects for U.S.-Russian relations, as well as for the development of both the Syrian and the Ukrainian conflicts." (Bloomberg View : Sept 8, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also The Washington Times : Tuesday, September 8, 2015)

Bershidsky further points out that,
 
"...commentators describe the putative Russian intervention as a Putin gamble. The Russian leader travels to the United Nations General Assembly next week, and there, they speculate, he may offer the U.S. a deal: Russian aid to the anti-ISIS effort in Syria in exchange for concessions on Ukraine and an end to sanctions." (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

Already we have Hollande calling for an end to the EU sanctions against Putin.

As reported last Monday by BBC News,

"French President Francois Hollande has said that following recent ceasefire progress in Ukraine he hopes to see the end of sanctions against Russia. 

 

Mr Hollande has proposed a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine in Paris later this month on the situation in Ukraine

He said there had been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal.." (BBC News : 7 September 2015) (my emphasis)

This sudden call of Hollande for the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' signifies that he is now more than willing to cave in to Putin's demands that his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine must be invited to the 'Normandy Four' diplomatic table.

Already we have "business as usual" between Putin and many top EU companies.

As reported by Andrew Rettman, (left)

"German firm BASF, last weekend, renewed an asset-swap deal with Russia’s Gazprom which is to see them build a second leg of the Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany.

Austrian firm OMV, British-Dutch firm Shell, and France’s Engie are also to take part.

The BASF deal was initially suspended due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea

Judy Dempsey, an analyst at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said its renewal is “just like the old days, before the European Union imposed sanctions”.(EU Observer :  8. Sep., 2015) (my emphasis) 

More significantly, however, what is the betting that President Obama, who seems to have put nearly all his 'foreign policy' eggs into his Middle Eastern basket, will simply acquiesce to the demands of Putin?

That Putin will demand an end to sanctions is directly related to the fact that,

"Ukrainian foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin (right), told press in Brussels on Monday (7 September):

“The first of January is the final date [for entry into life] of the pact.

It’s an ultimate decision taken jointly by Ukraine and by the European Commission”.

“There’s no chance to influence this by the Russian side or any other side … there’s no chance of changing the agreement”.(ibid Andrew Rettman) (my emphasis)

Putin desperately wants to obstruct the implementation of this economic pact between the EU and Ukraine, that comes into effect in less than 4 months from now.

And he will use his 'Syrian card' when grandstanding in front of the UN Assembly at the end of this month as the 'ace up his sleeve' to try and achieve this end.

As Kirill Martynov (left) wrote in Novaya Gazeta,

"Moscow, which, unlike Washington, doesn't have to deal with resistance from public opinion and Congress, is to undertake the destruction of ISIS," Kirill Martynov wrote in Novaya Gazeta.

"If the plan succeeds even partially, the Russian authorities will get all they could ever dream of -- the normalization of relations with the West, the prospect of negotiations on the status of Crimea and, at the same time, a demonstration of Russian power throughout the world .... " (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

But will this really happen? Or does it simply illustrate, as  Yevgeni Kiselyoev (right), a former top TV anchor in Moscow who now lives in Kiev, wrote in a blog post,

"I have no doubt that military intervention in Syria would be an adventure that would put Russia in mortal danger," (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

If Yevgeni Kiselyoev is correct then this would mean that Putin has lost his 'gamble', even before he has played what he regards as his 'Syrian Ace up his sleeve'.

Is this 'Syrian adventure' of Putin yet another indication of his desperation in trying to extricate himself from his crumbling 'Ukrainian adventure'? 

Or does it indicate that, like Stalin in his last days, his growing isolation within the Kremlin is now getting the better of him.

(to be continued)

Putin the dangerous gambler .......

In my very first blog entry (Tuesday 10 June, 2014) I wrote that

"One of the hallmarks in the field of espionage is training in the ability of concealment. Indeed, the devious art of concealment can be said to be somewhat central to the persona of a spy. I might add that this art is also practiced by politicians, among others. It is the pivot upon which the world of diplomacy rotates.

That Putin is a rather poor practitioner of this art could be explained by the fact that during his years in the KGB he only obtained the somewhat lowly rank of lieutenant colonel. (подполковник)  

Thus, when he first became President of Russia ( 7 May, 2000) and, a few days later, addressed a meeting of 800 of the FSB (formerly the KGB) top brass at the Dhzerzinsky Club, he smilingly and proudly pronounced,

"The FSB wanted to return to power. I am pleased to announce that we have succeeded!"

He made public what, in the world of espionage, should have been concealed. No doubt many officers in the audience winced inwardly at this [PUBLIC] pronouncement.

Jim Hoagland (left) now (7 August, 2015) rather interestingly informs us that,

"..... U.S. and European intelligence operatives who had studied the Russian president’s 17-year KGB career. 

They too traced a portrait of Putin as a failed spy who was being squeezed out of the KGB when the Soviet system collapsed and political connections suddenly offered him a route to power.

“He was seen in the system as a risk-taker who had little understanding of the consequences of failure,” one said. “The KGB of that era was not keen on risk.”

That analysis of Putin, rather than one of him as a master spy, fits more closely with what he has done as Kremlin boss. Putin today displays an open contempt for Russian public opinions and an uncaring disregard for the economy-damaging sanctions and international disapproval that his Ukraine adventure has provoked, traits that befit a drunken gambler." (Washington Post : 7 August, 2015) (my emphasis)

This rather throws into perspective Putin's current attempt, like a drunken gambler, to create a new bargaining piece for himself at the proposed upcoming meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and himself, by sending troops and military equipment to bolster his ally in Syria, Bashar Al Assad.

As Rob Crilly (left) reports,

"Russia is building a military base in Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s heartland, according to American intelligence officials, in the clearest indication yet of deepening Russian support for the embattled regime of Bashar al-Assad...." (The Telegraph : 05 Sep 2015)

Added to which, this will also deflect the gaze of the UN Assembly from the Malaysian Airline MH17 tragedy and the upcoming sentencing of Ukrainian Pilot Nadiya Savchenko when,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a speech at the jubilee session of the UN General Assembly in New York. The high-level session with the participation of heads of states, government leaders and foreign ministers will take place from September 28 till October 3, RIA Novosti reports." (Pravda : 01.09.201)

As the lawyer representing Nadiya Savchenko (left) tweeted,

" ...... Savchenko will not be convicted prior to the visit of Russian President Putin to the UN and before a possible UN General Assembly’s decision on the establishment of the tribunal to try the people responsible for the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.  (Censor . net : 28.08.15)

 Putin is aware that he can now pressurize President Obama with his support for Bashar Al Assad into trying to force Poroshenko to deal directly with his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine. 

As a direct hint of this strategy of Putin, a sudden 'leadership shakeup' has occurred amongst Putin's rebel-proxies in Donetsk over Ukraine's 'Special Status' drive for the region.

"Dissent within militant ranks. The parliamentary speaker in occupied Donetsk has been removed from office, in what appears to be a local power struggle within Moscow's proxy forces. That's according to several Ukrainian media outlets and western journalists. Andrei Purgin, seen here, was arrested, then replaced by Denis Pushilin, another leading figure within insurgent ranks." (Ukraine Today : Sep. 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

It almost goes without saying that Putin will categorically demand that his rebel-proxies be recognized as representatives of the eastern Ukraine regions controlled by them and his Russian soldiers, a recognition that Poroshenko, quite rightly, simply will not make. 

Thus, even though,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Saturday that the Western-backed truce signed in Minsk in February had been respected this week for the first time, despite pro-Russian rebels claiming a civilian had been killed" (AFP : 5 Sept., 2015) (my emphasis),

it is to be expected that upon his return from 'grandstanding' at the UN, Putin will simply let his rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers loose upon the Ukrainian army.

 Putin simply has nowhere to turn to.

Even the Chinese, at the Eastern Economic Forum in the Pacific Port of Vladivostok on Friday (Sept. 4, 2015) , do not seem too enamored with his ideas about him setting up,

".... favorable business conditions and state support to Asian and domestic investors willing to come to Russia's most remote land ...." (Katya Golubkova : Reuters : Sat Sep 5, 2015)

It is no wonder that,

"[Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang]'s address to the forum on Saturday was short and he left immediately afterwards, in the middle of the session, followed by Chinese officials, including Wang Yilin, chairman of the board at China National Petroleum Corporation." (ibid Katya Golubkova) (my emphasis)

We now wait to see just what reception he will receive when he addresses the UN Assembly.

(to be continued)

The sanctions screw against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' are been turned even tighter

In my blog entry of Thursday, 30 July 2015 I wrote that,

"Recall that on my June 24, 2015 blog entry I suggested that,

"The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko,

"... also discussed over the phone on Monday (Associated Press:22/06/2015) whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." ( EuroMaidan Press)

The recent clashes outside the Ukrainian Parliament by Svoboda, the far-right Ukrainian political party, that led to at least one fatality and more than 100 injured, are a direct result  of Merkel and Hollande pressuring Poroshenko to speedily devolve power to ALL the regions in Ukraine, specifically to those controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies.

In consequence of these clashes in Kiev, Poroshenko said that,

""It was an anti-Ukrainian act for which all of its organisers without exception -- all representatives of political forces -- should be severely punished," he said in a televised address" (AFP : August 31, 2015)

Interestingly, instead of trying to make political capital out of this event, 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman said Moscow was also concerned at the clashes but quickly added this was Ukraine's domestic business.

"Of course, we condemn these manifestations of violence, we absolutely do not accept them," spokesman Dmitry Peskov (left) told reporters." (ibid AFP) (my emphasis)

Expect this 'soft' tone to change dramatically as Sounak Mukhopadhyay (right) reports that,

"The U.S. Department of Commerce added new entities from Russia and other countries in its list of sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.

Russian news agency TASS reported that 39 persons under 33 entries had been included in the "Entity List," according to a rule notice in the Federal Register to be published Wednesday. The entries include entities from Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Romania, Finland, Cyprus, Switzerland and the United Kingdom." ( International Business Times : September 02 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The European Union has agreed to extended sanctions for another six months against Russian firms and individuals, as well as Ukrainian separatists, to maintain pressure on Moscow to carry out the Minsk cease-fire agreement.

The decision was made at a meeting of EU ambassadors on September 2 and should be signed off by ministers in mid-September.

The asset freeze and travel bans were due to expire September 15." (RFERL : Thursday, September 03, 2015) (my emphasis)

This has led Putin to go into an apoplectic fit, and he responded by threatening that Russia will,

".... react in kind to United States' widening of sanctions imposed on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, criticizing the move as straining relations and posing risks for international stability.
.....
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia's response would be reciprocal." (Reuters : Wed Sep 2, 2015) (my emphasis)


And if this were not enough to get Putin spitting nails, Yuras Karmanau (right) informs us that,

"Ukraine's national security council on Wednesday approved a new military doctrine that declares Russia to be a military opponent and calls for the country to pursue NATO membership.
.......
At the security council meeting, Poroshenko said the doctrine "not only officially establishes the Russian Federation as Ukraine's military opponent, but states the task of relocating military units and creating the necessary military infrastructure in the eastern and southern regions."" (Associated Press : 2 September, 2015) (my emphasis)


Whether all of this will breathe life into the 'lifeless' Minsk2 proposals remains to be seen.

The window of opportunity to do so is rapidly closing.

And as this windows of opportunity for fulfilling ALL of the 13 Minsk2 proposals diminishes with each passing day, Putin himself must be becoming rather worried.

Recall that according to Andrey Piontkovsky,

“Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin,” Andrey Piontkovsky says.

And although evidence of them comes mostly in leaks, they are a clear indication of “the panic and confusion now ruling” there and the beginning in the Kremlin of “a showdown in the higher echelons of power.” (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Aug. 25) (my emphasis)

This is happening against the backdrop of Putin's economy continuing its precipitous fall into an even deeper recession that previously imagined.
 
As reported by Ivana Kottasova (right),

"China's slowdown is making it harder for Beijing to deliver on promises it made to Moscow, and Chinese investors are spooked by Russia's deep economic crisis. 
......
Putin boasted last year that Russia's trade with China would exceed $100 billion in 2015, up from $95 billion in 2014. Longer term, the goal was for $200 billion.

But instead of the promised boost, the value of trade between the two countries has nosedived.

"China's exports to Russia have fallen because of the slump in domestic demand in Russia, which is now in a deep recession," said Liza Ermolenko at Capital Economics." (CNN Money : (London) September 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

What must be giving Putin some slight relief is the fact that EU governments are temporarily  pre-occupied with the flood of Middle-Eastern and North African refugees attempting to enter into EU countries to claim asylum.

This is, however, rather temporary relief for him. 

Neither the EU, nor the US, have taken their eyes off the Ukrainian ball. Nor is there even a glimmer of hope that the Russian economy will soon be clawing its way out of a deepening recession.

(to be continued)