Putin has no Plan "B" to extricate himself from his war with Ukraine. He may also be on the brink of loosing the uncritical support of the Russian Orthodox Church.

Ihor Kozak (left) recently wrote that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin likely realizes that his offensive in the Donbas has essentially stalled and that for now he cannot take more Ukrainian territory, not without sustaining heavy casualties among his regular military forces and triggering additional Western sanctions." (Atlantic Council : 21 Dec., 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"... retired US Army General Wesley Clark (right), former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, who visited Ukraine seven times in 2015, "Ukraine is a work in progress by Putin. He has multiple channels to attack Ukraine, economically, politically, diplomatically, militarily." (ibid Ihor Kozak) (my emphasis)

This is why,

" ... "Russian special services are intensifying their activities in peaceful [Ukrainian] cities, trying to destabilize the situation and trying to show that Ukrainian law enforcement bodies and Ukrainian authorities are not able to protect their citizens." (ibid Ihor Kozak)

This realization by Putin that his offensive in eastern Ukraine is not quite working out as he expected when his war with Ukarine was launched is now coming on top of the fact that even Russian businessmen seem to have had enough of the fallout of Putin's war with Ukraine.

"Three [Russian] businessmen — Potapenko, his neighbor at the forum roundtable, farm boss Pavel Grudinin, and Crimean zoo director Oleg Zubkov (pictured from left to right) — together gathered more than 2 million hits on YouTube with videos of speeches lambasting the authorities. The three work in different branches of business, but are united in their complaints of red tape, corruption and the deaf ear of the political elite to demands for reform." (Eva Hartog (left) : Moscow Times : Dec. 18 2015) (my emphasis)

Potapenko and Grudinin

Sergei Alexashenko (left) further informs us that,

• Russia's economy is faring poorly as the New Year approaches. Gross domestic product has swung back to a level last seen in the first of 2008 and the economy has essentially stagnated over the last seven years.
• Even a rise in oil prices would not solve the economic problems that Russia is currently facing.
• of the 200,000 businesspeople against whom the authorities brought criminal charges in 2014, 83 percent lost their businesses. More proof of how dire the threat to property rights has become in Russia (Moscow Times : Dec. 10 2015) (my emphasis)

Sergei Alexashenko exposes merely the tip of the iceberg of reasons for the 'imploding' Russian economy.

Meanwhile, as reported by UNIAN,

"Russian proxies have mounted more than 35 armed attacks on the Ukrainian forces participating in the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, on Friday, according to the ATO Headquarters' press service" (UNIAN ; 25 Dec. 2015) (my emphasis) (full size image here)

Even more troubling for Putin,

"Three Russian Orthodox priests arrived at the village church here one afternoon in October, packed gilded icons, censers and chandeliers into a moving van, and drove off.

Their departure marked a victory for Nadiya Myakshyna, a small, 58-year-old woman with an impish smile.

This fall, as Ukraine’s army battled Russia-backed separatists in the country’s far-off east, she had rallied neighbors to oust the visiting clergy [from the Moscow Patriarch] and replace them with a priest from a Ukraine-led church." (James Marson : Wall Street Journal : 25 Dec. 2015) (my emphasis)

This is further reflected by the fact that,

"A conservative priest who lost his high-level job at the Russian Orthodox Church assailed Russia's "immoral elites" Friday and predicted a national catastrophe if the country fails to allow free public discussion.

Father Vsevolod Chaplin (right), who headed the Moscow Patriarchate's department for cooperation between church and society, was relieved of his duties Thursday and his department was disbanded." (Vladimir Isachenkov : AP [Yahoo News] : 25 Dexc. 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin is on the verge of loosing the support of the Russian Orthodox Church.

"[Father Vsevolod] criticized Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill for failing to listen to critical voices and predicted that Kirill would be replaced soon" (ibid Vladimir Isachenkov) (my emphasis)

If this were to happen, Putin would be bereft of the unwaveruing and uncritical support he has received from Patriarch Kirill since he first became president of Russia. 

Patriarch Kirill has been the moral crutch that Putin has leaned upon to justify the actions that he has taken in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine.

 How will the Russian people respond to the dismissal of  Father Vsevolod Chaplin?

(to be continued)

Putin faces a bleak 2016. His 'maskirovka' mask is about to slip from his face.

As night follows day, it was to be expected that as January 1st draws near, Putin's Kremlin cronies have been working overtime to devise as many stumbling blocks for Ukraine as is possible, so that Ukraine will be hobbled as the full implementation of  the Ukraine-EU Trade Pact comes into force.

First we have Putin announcing that he will,

"... not abandon Russians living in southeast Ukraine to Ukrainian nationalists, the state-run RIA news agency quoted him as saying in a documentary due to be broadcast later on Sunday." (Vladimir Soldatkin : Reuters : Sun Dec 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

What this really means is that Minsk2 will never be fully implemented. 

Then we have Putin's glove puppet, the erstwhile Dmitry Medvedev.

"Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev has signed a decree on the introduction of a food embargo against Ukraine in response to the country joining anti-Russian sanctions, the Interfax news agency reported Monday.

“Starting Jan. 1, 2016, Russia will extend the economic measures for Ukraine in connection with it joining anti-Russian sanctions by the European Union and the United States,” Medvedev said at a meeting with deputy prime ministers on Monday." (Moscow Times : Dec. 21 2015) (my emphasis)

Notice the 'excuse', however. Instead of admitting that this action is a direct response to the upcoming implementation of the Trade Pact between the EU and Ukraine, that old chesnut about Ukraine joining anti-Russian sanctions if pulled out of the fire.

As Valentina Pop (left) reports,

"Moscow said it would go through with punitive tariffs on Ukrainian products in January after European efforts to head off Russian retaliation against a sweeping EU-Ukraine trade deal failed. " (Wall Street Journal : Dec. 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

As EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstroem (right) remarked,

“There wasn’t enough flexibility from the Russian side … this process is now over.” She said most of Russia’s concerns “aren’t real”. She also said if Ukraine had bowed to Russia’s demands “it would have made the entry into force of the DCFTA impossible.” (Andrew Rettman : EUobserver : 21. Dec. 2015) (my emphasis)

Rettman further reports that,

"EU capitals, also on Monday (20 Dec. 2015), by written procedure, extended the life of Russia economic sanctions by six months.

They did it because even sanctions critics, such as Italy, say it's not complying with the “Minsk” ceasefire accord on Ukraine." (ibid Andrew Rettman) ( my emphasis)

RT reports, however, that,

"Russia didn’t ditch negotiations with Europe over its free trade agreement with Ukraine, said Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday. The EU left the negotiations with the words “game over,” which isn’t “very European and intolerant,” (RT : 22 Dec, 2015) (my emphasis)

Rettman also reports that,

"Klimkin said Putin “is in full control of Donbass [east Ukraine]. In every mercenary or other illegal unit there’s a regular Russian officer.” (ibid Andrew Rettman) ( my emphasis)

This was confirmed by,

"A 'friendly' shelling of one of the [rebel] units resulted in four soldiers killed and another six wounded.

"Another fact of the deaths of Russian soldiers has been established: two Russian staff officers were killed in an explosion in the village of Bezimenne (Novoazovskiy district). They acted as military advisers in the 9th Separate Motorized Rifle Regiment (Novoazovsk) of the 1st army corps," (Ukraine Today : Dec. 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough,

"Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on Monday ordered his vice ministers to start preparing legal documents to sue Ukraine over the $3-billion loan Kiev has failed to repay to Moscow." (Sputnik : 21.12.2015) (my emphasis)

To which Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk responded that,

"...the [Ukrainian] government had introduced a moratorium on the payment of Ukraine's $3-billion loan to Russia and was ready to go to the court over the issue." (ibid Sputnik) (my emphasis)

Arseniy Yatsenyuk is also correct when he,

" .... called the debt - incurred in December 2013 - a "political bribe" from Moscow to former President Viktor Yanukovych, who was facing mass street protests at the time. Mr Yanukovych fled to Russia in February 2014." (BBC News : 21 December 2015) (my emphasis)

It would therefore seem as though Putin's Syrian gambit has not quite succeeded as he wished.

• EU sanctions have been extended for another 7 months
• the Trade Pact between Ukraine and the EU will be going ahead
• Ukraine is willing to go to court over that $3 billion 'Yanukovivch bribe', and
• Russians will be denied cheap Ukrainian food imports.

The holiday season in Europe has begun, and European politicians are winding down and wending their way towards their homes and their families for the festive celebrations

Putin, however, faces a New Year of

• continuing sanctions, 
• an economy that will be driven further down the slopes of negative growth as the price of oil continues to fall, 
• the integration between Ukraine and the EU continuing to develop, as evidenced by the coming implementation of a visa-free regime between the EU Schengen group and Ukraine, and
• the further impoverishment of the Russian people.

What will he now do?

(to be continued) 

Has Putin's 'Crimean ploy' against sanctions paid off?

It is said that a picture is worth a thousand words. And so it is.

A smiling Putin, and a somewhat subdued Kerry, US Secretary of State, after Kerry stated that,

"No one should be forced to choose between a dictator and being plagued by terrorists," Kerry said. However, he described the Syrian opposition's demand that Assad must leave as soon as peace talks begin as a "nonstarting position, obviously." (AP : Daily Mail : 15 December 2015) (my emphasis)

All of this follows closely on the heels of US Vice President Biden, who stated on Monday that,

"U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said Monday that Washington remained determined to see Russia adhere to a shaky Ukrainian peace agreement and hand back Crimea to Kyiv." (World Bulletin : 08 December 2015 Tuesday) (my emphasis)

BUT with the caveat that,

"It's absolutely critical for Ukraine... to root out the cancer of corruption," the U.S. vice president said.  "There's a growing degree of popular frustration about the slow pace of the reforms and the efforts to root out corruption," Biden warned." (ibid World Bulletin) (my emphasis)

And suddenly yesterday, Putin explodes another bombshell at his "stage set" press conference.

As Shaun Walker reports from Moscow,

"Vladimir Putin has for the first time admitted the presence of Russian military specialists in east Ukraine.
Russia has repeatedly denied a military presence in the conflict, despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary. But the Russian president conceded there were military intelligence officers operating in the country in a marathon press conference on Thursday." (The Guardian : Thursday 17 December 2015) (my emphasis)

Even more significantly, Putin stated that,

"We are NOT going to introduce ANY sanctions against Ukraine .... I want this to be heard ..."

But ...... wait a minute .....  did not Putin recently,

"[order] the suspension of Russia’s free trade zone with Ukraine, following up on threats that Kiev’s trade deal with the EU would cost it preferential access to the Russian market.

The move by the Russian president comes as EU members prepare to discuss on Friday another extension of sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea and its role in the war in Ukraine."? (Kathrin Hille, Roman Olearchyk, and Christian Oliver : Financial Times : December 16, 2015)

And did this not elicit from Ukraine the response that,

"Ukraine is "ready to pay the price" for a trade deal with the European Union, President Petro Poroshenko said on Wednesday (16 December), after Moscow moved to restrict its own trade ties with Kyiv over the accord that is due to take effect on 1 January." (EuroActiv : 17 Dec 2015) (my emphasis)

These tectonic political shifts comes against the backdrop of President Obama beginning to muse on what he will do as he begins to walk towards the sunset of political retirement.

The burning question that now has to be answered is,

"Has Ukraine been sold down the river by Obama, as a payment to Putin for his intervention in Syria?"

Is this why Kerry so categorically described,

"...... the Syrian opposition's demand that Assad must leave as soon as peace talks begin as a "nonstarting position, obviously."?

Let us remind ourselves of the words of  Orysia Lutsevych (right), who recently wrote that,

"..To ease sanctions [against Putin's Russia] in order to secure Russian cooperation on Syria would be to treat Ukraine as a bargaining chip for the West. This must not be allowed to happen. Syria and Ukraine are entirely separate issues whose only connection is Russian opportunism.. " (New York Times : December 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Already,

"Italy has requested a debate at the EU summit on plans to extend economic sanctions against Russia for its intervention in Ukraine by six months until July of next year. This is considered an unusual move given that there is already broad consensus among EU states on the extension." (Francesco Guarascio (left): Reuters : Fri Dec 18, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet on 14 December 2015, Tom Burridge (right) reported that,

"The official collective position in Brussels, though, is that there will be no trade-off of issues.

The bloc will work hard to engage Russia on many issues without giving up its "very clear position" on Ukraine. (BBC News : 14 December 2015)

 And so,

 

"Sanctions were set to be extended on Wednesday, but that did not happen after the Italian government instructed its ambassador to raise objections during a closed-door meeting of EU countries’ delegates, which was supposed to approve the extension without much political noise." (The American Interest : Dec 11, 2015) (my emphasis) (Prime Minister Matteo Renzi of Italy (left)

 

More ominously,

 

"... On Thursday, the 28 EU ambassadors met again, but the delicate topic was not put to vote for a second time as Italy signaled it wouldn’t change its position, diplomatic sources told POLITICO.[..]

...

Italy wants Europe to take Russia’s military help in Syria into account when discussing sanctions, a source said." (ibid The American Interest) (my emphasis)

 

Has Putin finally wrested this demand of his from President Obama?

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin pulling out all the stops as the deadline of Minsk2 fast approaches

In March of this year it was revealed that Putin lied over the date when he ordered the invasion of, and subsequent annexation of, Crimea.

"...Putin has admitted for the first time that the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum on self-determination.". (BBC News : 9 March, 2015)

Now he's at it again.

On Friday he publicly stated that Russia is supplying rebels fighting Assad with arms and ammunition, something which has caused confusion in world capitals. This is precisely what he said.

 

However, bearing his revelations about his lying over Russia's takeover of Crimea, a US official wisely stated that this is all propaganda. This is pure Putin 'maskirovka', military deception ranging from camouflage to denial and deception.

This 'bombshell' statement of Putin about him arming a group of Assad's enemies was made purely to divert the eyes of the world away from the fact that,

" [he] has deployed an extra 20,000 soldiers to the frontline of Ukraine’s civil war, as temperatures and hopes of a lasting ceasefire continue to plummet." (Tom Batchelor : Sunday Express : 12 Dec. 2015) (my emphasis)

This flooding of eastern Ukraine with another batch of his soldiers should also be viewed against the fact that suddenly, all those Ukrainian oligarchs and escapees residing particularly in Moscow and London are now marching to Putin's orders by trying to sow dissent and discord within Ukraine itself. (blog entry : 11 Dec. 2015)

And whilst Putin is deploying more soldiers to eastern Ukraine, Dmytro Firtash, one of Putin's Ukrainian oligarch pals residing in London, has had published in his London newspaper, The Independent, a supportive article about the Sovietization of the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine where.

"Stalin’s cult of personality has been resurrected. Portraits of the dictator appear in Donetsk’s main square and adorn most separatist commanders’ offices. Rebels have rewritten school history books to take a pro-Russian slant and airbrush Stalinist atrocities.
...
Such nostalgia in the restive east is understandable." (Jack Losh : The Independent : 12 December 2015) (my emphasis)

Understandable???

And whilst the rebel-held territories are reverting to nostalgia for Stali, whilst being rather slow off the mark, Ukraine is tentatively ramping up its attack on endemic corruption.

As Anders Åslund and John Herbst (left and right respectively) report,

"Judicial reforms have proven much more difficult to enact than economic reforms. Multiple vested interests have blocked reforms of prosecution and courts and the establishment of new anticorruption bodies. The European Union is trying to persuade the Ukrainian government to do the right things, but with limited success. With a commission scheduling regular meetings, the US Vice President would be well positioned to use his influence to help resolve these difficult issues." (Atlantic Council : December 7, 2015)

At the same time, Ukraine's fight against corruption at the lower level has now gone online. As Lydia Tomkiw reports,

"A big part of putting information online is about gaining trust, Shyrba says, and that will require making Ukrainians comfortable with using online resources and reassuring them it’s not a gimmick -- someone will actually answer their queries." (International Business Times : 12/07/15)
 
And whilst Ukraine is becoming more focussed on its implementation of the fight against corruption, Ukrainian oligarchs Victor Pinchuk and Igor Kolomoisky are readying themselves for battle against each other in a London court.

"Feuding Ukrainian oligarchs [Victor Pinchuk and Igor Kolomoisky (left)] have launched what promises to be one of the most expensive court cases in English legal history over a disputed business deal, amid allegations of murder, bribery and political intrigue." (David Barrett (right): The Telegraph :  04 Dec 2015) (my emphasis)

The question that needs to be raised about this impending battle between Ukrainian oligarchs is, "Why now?"

And "Why now?" is Firtash's London newspaper suddenly giving the 'oxygen of publicity' to Oleksandr Klymenko (right), Ukraine’s Minister for Tax and Revenue under Viktor Yanukovych, and now living in Moscow? (cf. Kim Sengupta Moscow)

And "Why now?" are there also articles about 'Soviet kitsch' in the rebel-held territories appearing in Firtash's London newspaper? (cf Jack Losh)

So what we have is:

• Putin trying to avert the eyes of the international community away from his war with Ukraine by pulling his Syrian rabbit out of a hat,
• Ukrainian oligarchs being given the 'oxygen of publicity' by Firtash,
• Putin beefing up his army on Ukraine's border to the tune of 20,000 Russian soldiers, and
• Ukrainian oligarchs, Victor Pinchuk and Igor Kolomoisky, preparing to do battle in an English court

What is rather disconcerting is the fact that even Russian political analysts have been sucked in by Putin's Syrian rabbit trick.

 

Indeed it would seem that we have Putin's 'Crimean ploy' all over again. 

We should all take heed of Orysia Lutsevych (left), who wrote that,

"..To ease sanctions [against Putin's Russia] in order to secure Russian cooperation on Syria would be to treat Ukraine as a bargaining chip for the West. This must not be allowed to happen. Syria and Ukraine are entirely separate issues whose only connection is Russian opportunism.. " (New York Times : December 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin's 'terror' strategy in Ukraine is failing, as is the Russian economy

On Friday, November 20 2015, I wrote that,

"As Aaron Korewa says,

 "Euromaidan Press recently published a list of the Kremlin's other separatist projects in Ukraine. One of the most active organizations is the Kharkiv Partisans, which operates in northeast Ukraine. The group has claimed responsibility for several IED attacks on both people and infrastructure in the area. Its leader, Oleg Sobchenko, (left) lives in Russia and claims to be a Soviet Army veteran who served on the Afghan border. (Atlantic Council : November 11, 2015)"

Now we learn that yesterday, as Pavel Polityuk and Natalia Zinets report,

"Ukraine's security service said on Thursday it had broken up an armed insurgent group that operated out of Kiev and other major Ukrainian cities and that two people had been killed during the operation.
The SBU security service said it had detained three Russian and four Ukrainian citizens after a shootout in which a special forces officer and the Ukrainian leader of the armed group were killed." (Reuters : Thu Dec 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

And, as reported by AP,

"International observers still witness fighting and the use of banned weapons in eastern Ukraine months after a cease-fire deal was signed, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe said on Thursday.
......
"Instead of redoubling efforts to adhere to the Minsk, we are witnessing a media-driven blame-game," [Alexander] Hug (left) [OSCE deputy chief monitor in Ukraine] said, referring to a recent incident outside the village of Zaitseve between government and rebel lines where a woman was killed by gunfire. "We also see heavy weapons inside agreed withdrawal lines." (Yahoo News: December 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

Is this renewed fighting in eastern Ukraine a response to  US Vice-President Joe Biden, who recently stated on his visit to Kiev that,

""The US stands firmly with the people of Ukraine in the face of continued -- I emphasise continued -- aggression from Russia and Russian-backed separatists," he told Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko." ? (Olga Shylenko and Dmytro Gorshkov :AFP [Yahoo News]: December 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

Biden also stated that,

"...Washington remained determined to see Russia adhere to a shaky Ukrainian peace agreement and hand back Crimea to Kiev." (ibid Olga Shylenko and Dmytro Gorshkov) (my emphasis)

Putin, who thought that his Syrian adventure, could be used as a bargaining chip against Ukraine, and also as a means of having the sanctions against Russia lifted, must have 'blown a fuse' at these statements of Biden.

Added to which,

"The European Union and Ukraine say they will introduce a free trade pact next month as planned despite Russia's threat to take retaliatory trade action if its concerns aren't addressed. Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk said on Monday that "this agreement will enter force on January 1, and this agreement is in the interests of the European Union and Ukraine." (AP : Salt Lake Tribune : Dec 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

Scraping the bottom of his propaganda barrel, Putin is now calling in the markers of his Ukrainian oligarch friends, no doubt commanding them to 'do their bit' in attacking the current Ukrainian government. 

We thus have a spate of threats emanating from this group, headed by none other than Ukrainian billionaire Dmytro Firtash (left), owner of London's "Independent Newspaper", who recently said that, 

"..the Ukrainian government is politically bankrupt and will probably fall early next year, his most outspoken criticism of the pro-Western leadership in Kiev since it came to power almost two years ago.

Firtash, a former supporter of ousted Moscow-friendly president Viktor Yanukovich, shelved a plan to return to Ukraine this week after officials there said they would act on a U.S. warrant for his arrest on suspicion of bribery and money-laundering." (Alessandra Prentice :Reuters : [Yahoo News] : December 2, 2015) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

Then there is Oleksandr Klymenko (right), Ukraine’s former Minister for Tax and Revenue under Viktor Yanukovych, who is now in exile in Moscow.

" [He] has been placed on the European Union’s sanctions list at the request of the post-revolutionary government in Kiev, meaning his assets are at risk and he cannot travel to or through the EU; and now he has decided to come out fighting against the claims.

...

“It is nothing but political persecution aimed at demonising me,” the former minister told The Independent. [ the London Newspaper of, none other than, Dmytro Firtash]". (Kim Sengupta Moscow: The Independent: Wednesday 2 December 2015)

And what about Rinat Akhmetov, Ihor Kolomoyskyi, Andriy Klyuyev?

The call by Joe Biden to the Ukrainian parliamentarians to,   

 

" .... reform the whole prosecution and judiciary," Biden said. "Oligarchs should not be able to influence court and judges... corruption siphons resources from the people and from the economy, and you know it." (Christopher Miller (right): MashableUK : Dec 8, 2015),

seems to have somewhat 'panicked' Ukraine's oligarchs.

If calling in these markers from his Ukrainian 'oligarch' buddies were not enough, Putin is now having to resort to giving a pep talk to his propaganda soldiers at the 10th anniversary of RT; to inspire them to even greater feats of honing their 'propaganda military skills' in the face of the international community beginning to become immune to their lies and distortions of events in Ukraine. (Published on 10 Dec 2015)

And whilst this lavish banquet is thrown for his 'propaganda paratroopers' at RT,  Emre Gurkan Abay reports that,

"The Kremlin’s recent economic policies are unsustainable and could lead to civil unrest, analysts said Wednesday.

As the country is involved in military conflicts in Ukraine and Syria it also faces crippling international sanctions and a crash in the price of oil, the country’s greatest export.

...in an effort to balance the books, President Vladimir Putin's government anticipates cutting health expenditure by 8 percent and education spending by 8.5 percent in 2016. Pension costs are also due to be trimmed by 4 percent. 

“This proposed level of defense spending at the cost of investment in healthcare and education is unsustainable,” Russia and Eurasia expert John Lough (left), of the British think tank Chatham House, told Anadolu Agency.

Predicting that such cost-cutting on vital social projects could lead to protests in Russian cities, Lough also said that sanctions due to be implemented against Turkey will make matters worse “because they will hit the pockets and kitchen tables of large swathes of the population.” 

......
"Mr. Putin must be feeling the pressure," [Hossein] Askari said in reference to economic mismanagement and vast military spending.

These would require political will and a sharp turnaround in policy, he added.

"But sadly for the Russian people, Mr. Putin is obstinate and will not change." (AA : 02.12.2015) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin to sue Ukraine, whilst Merkel and Steinmeier ride to his rescue as the deadline for Minsk2 approaches.

As a last ditch effory to scupper Ukraine receiving IMF funding, Putin's Finance Ministry will be filing a lawsuit against Ukraine over that $3 billion loan he gave to his 'buddy', Victor Yanukovich, who is now residing somewhere near Moscow under his, Putin's, protection.


As his Finance Ministry so succintly put it,

"... we have nothing to do but to file a lawsuit against Ukraine if the borrower fails to fulfil its liabilities in full on December 20, 2015, which will mean Ukraine’s sovereign default."

"Besides, now there exist risks that Ukraine will not get another tranche from the IMF as the country’s budget for the year 2016 has not been approved in compliance with the IMF parameters due to the lack of a drafted tax reform and other required structural measures," the Russian Finance Ministry said." (Tass : December 05, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is no coincidence that the day this statement was released by Putin's Finance Ministry, it is exactly 21 years since the signing of the Budapest Memorandum by Russia, the US, Ukraine, and Great Britain, which confirmed that,

"The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the Final Act of the Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine;.." (CFR : December 5, 1994) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is readying himself to sue Ukraine,

"A Russian delegation at a meeting of the OSCE ministerial conference in Belgrade has blocked the adoption of a declaration on the activities of the special monitoring mission (SMM) in Ukraine, according to the Foreign Ministry of Ukraine". (KyivPost :  Dec. 05, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time, Robin Emmott informs us that,

"NATO's top commander warned on Wednesday there was little chance that Russia would meet a year-end deadline for a peace deal in eastern Ukraine, saying the calmer situation there did not mean the end of the conflict was near.

Spelling out what many Western officials believe, NATO Supreme Allied Commander Philip Breedlove  (left) said Russia continued to support separatists in the area and that the ebb and flow in violence was Russia's way of demonstrating its power." (Reuters : Wed Dec 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is thus highly unlikely that the end-of-year target for implementing the proposals of Minsk2 will be met. These targets included,

" .... restoration of Ukrainian control on its eastern border, removal of all non-Ukrainian state forces from the region and release of hostages." (ibid Robin Emmott) (my emphasis)

Pavlo Klimkin, Ukraine Foreign Minister (right with Steinmeier), 

".... spoke about Russia’s failure to fulfill any of its obligations taken at the Normandy Format Summit in Paris early October: ceasefire, verified heavy weapons withdrawal, withdrawal of all foreign troops and mercenaries from Donbas, disarmament of all illegal armed formations and establishment of the security zone along the Ukrainian-Russian border with effective 24/7 monitoring by OSCE." (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine : 02 December,2015) (my emphasis)

This, however, seems not to have been heard by that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier who, as  Alex Barker, Stefan Wagstyl, and Roman Olearchyk report, is behind

"Germany ... piling pressure on the European Commission to cut a deal with Russia to avert a flare-up when an EU trade deal with Ukraine comes into force next month.
...
The suggestions are outlined in a November letter, seen by the Financial Times, from Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Germany’s foreign minister, to Cecilia Malmström, the EU’s trade chief." (The Financial Times : December 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Steinmeier is trying to appease Putin, with the blessing of none other than Angela Merkel herself, 

"[US] Vice President Joe Biden (left) is scheduled to visit Ukraine early next week to reassure [Ukrainian] government leaders and reformers of the United States’ continued support “in face of continued Russian military intervention” in the country’s restive east, administration officials said." (Carol Guensburg : VOA : December 05, 2015) (my emphasis)

This visit of Biden comes shortly after,

"[John] Kerry (right), [U.S. Secretary of State] spoke Thursday at the annual ministerial council of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, a two-day session held in Belgrade, Serbia.

In his remarks Kerry said Russia should help with the removal of Russian forces in eastern Ukraine and allow unfettered access to OSCE monitors in the war-torn region of Donbas. He said Ukraine needs to do its part to restore the cease-fire and begin rebuilding Ukraine's eastern regions. (VOA News : December 03, 2015) (my emphasis)

And, surpisingly,

"Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (left) indicated that Canada will provide more support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia, after the countries’ leaders met on the sidelines of the global climate conference in Paris.

Trudeau and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko held a closed-door bilateral meeting on Sunday, CBC News reported." (Michelle Mark: International Business Times : November 30 2015) (my emphasis) 

Why, therefore, is it that neither Walter Steinmeier nor Angela Merkel are willing to now publicly state that Putin's soldiers should get out of eastern Ukraine?

Especially now that the deadline for the FULL implementation of Minsk2, to which Merkel herself is a signatory, is only 25 days away? 


(to be continued)