The war between Putin and Ukraine will determine who is in the driving seat at the White House ... Putin or Trump.

In my blog entry of yesterday I suggested that,

"Why would Putin have his soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) suddenly unleash themselves against Ukrainian forces immediately after that Trump-Putin telephone tête-à-tête?

Is this why Trump deliberately stopped short of endorsing [Teresa May's] commitment to continued sanctions against Russia, irrespective of the threat of John McCaine to codify these sanctions into US law?

Is Putin setting up Trump to be the knight in shining armour that will end the war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas and, in return, have the sanctions against Russia, himself, and his 'siloviki' clique, lifted? (blog entry 31/1/2017)

Andrew Roth (right), of the Washington Post, also suggested that,

"There have been suggestions that the Kremlin would test Trump early in his presidency with an international crisis or take advantage of the chaos in Washington to consolidate gains in southeast Ukraine. 

But with Trump now occupying the White House, the Kremlin may see the negotiating table as the best way to get what it wants now: a repeal of the sanctions imposed after the annexation of Crimea and recognition of Russia as a great power that can dominate a sphere of influence that includes Ukraine." (Washington Post : 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

And 5 hours ago (1/2/2017) Tom Burridge (left) reported that,

"The UN Security Council has warned of a "dangerous deterioration" in eastern Ukraine and called on warring sides to halt the violence.

The council said renewed fighting was having a "severe impact" on civilians.

Fighting in the frontline town of Avdiivka has left thousands of residents without water or power in freezing conditions.

Ukraine says it is preparing a possible evacuation of the town to avoid a humanitarian crisis." BBC News : 1/2/2017)

In an article entitled ," While Trump Fiddles, Putin Steps Up The War In Ukraine", Nolan Peterson (right) has also reported that,

"Ukrainian officials take seriously the possibility of a full-scale Russian invasion.

Poroshenko, who was on a diplomatic trip to Germany, cut short his visit.

“The president has cut short his visit to Germany because Russian fighters’ attacks on Avdiivka have caused an emergency situation, which may turn into a humanitarian disaster,” Tsegolko, Poroshenko’s press secretary, wrote on Twitter Monday.

Five Ukrainian soldiers died in the attacks Sunday, and nine were wounded, according to the Ukrainian military. Two more soldiers died during fighting in Avdiivka Monday morning, according to Kiev." (Newsweek (Daily Signal article): 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

Terrell Jermaine Starr also reported that,

"In what is clearly a shot at Trump, Ukrainian Petro Poroshenko is seen on video asking, “Who would dare talking about lifting the sanctions in such circumstances?” (Foxtrot Alpha : 31/1/2017) (my emphasis)

One could speculate that Putin is somewhat testing Trump with his escalation of violence in eastern Ukraine (Donbas).

However, there remains the nagging doubt of,

"What, exactly, does Putin have on Trump that makes Trump so reluctant to nail the US flag to the pole of a continuation of sanctions against Putin's Russia?"

The confusion in the Trump administration cannot be the sole factor that accounts for Trump publicly expressing reluctance to even suggest that sanctions against Putin will remain.

Recall that even though, in his recent joint press conference with British Prime Minister Teresa May, she was quite adamant in confirming that, together with the rest of the EU, sanctions against Putin should remain in place until the Minsk2 proposals are fully implemented, Trump rather poorly skirted around this subject.  

After an American Presidential election, the elected president usually enjoys a honeymoon period of near unconditional support from the American public.

Since the inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the US, this honeymoon period seems to have ended even before it has begun.

How Trump and his pro-Putin political advisors deal with the situation that is unravelling in eastern Ukraine will determine exactly who is in the driving seat in the Oval Office, Putin or Trump.

(to be continued)

Is Putin setting up Trump to be the FALSE knight in shining armour for Ukraine?

William Park (left) wrote in July of last year that,

“The statistical definition of random would be that two events are entirely unconnected,” he adds. “But in reality, it’s almost impossible to prove that two events are unconnected, particularly when we’re aware of so much of the discourse in the media. A random universe is hard to prove.” (BBC Worldwide : 11 July 2016) (my emphasis)

With this in mind, let us take a look at 3 events that took place from the 29th January, 2017 to the 30th January, 2017.

On 27th January Teresa May, Prime Minister of Great Britain, and Donald Trump, US President, met for discussions at the White House.

This was Donald Trump's first meeting with another head of state.

At the formal press conference after their meeting the issue of Ukraine and sanctions against Russia was raised by Steve Holland, a questioner of Trump's choosing.

As reported by David Smith,

"Donald Trump attempted to put up a united front with key ally Theresa May on Friday but stopped short of endorsing her commitment to continued sanctions on Russia." (The Guardian : Friday 27 January 2017) (my emphasis)

The following day we had the most anticipated phone call between Trump and Putin take place, a call that lasted for 50 minutes.

Prior to this tête-à-tête between Trump and Putin, 

"Republican Senator John McCain (left) felt prompted to issue a stern statement demanding the president to state publicly that [removing sanctions against Russia] .. was not in his plans and threatening congressional action were he to fail to do so. ....

"President Donald Trump's call with Vladimir Putin is scheduled to take place amid widespread speculation that the White House is considering lifting sanctions against Russia," said McCain ... For the sake of America's national security and that of our allies, I hope President Trump will put an end to this speculation and reject such a reckless course. If he does not, I will work with my colleagues to codify sanctions against Russia into law." (DW : 27.01.2017) (my emphasis)

And a day after the Trump-Putin telephone tête-à-tête, Lynn Berry reports that,

"A day after Donald Trump's first call as president with Russia's Vladimir Putin, leading congressional Republicans made clear they oppose any attempt by the new administration to wipe away U.S. penalties imposed on Moscow by the Obama White House.

"I'm absolutely opposed to lifting sanctions on the Russians," Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (right), R-Ky., said Sunday. "If anything, we ought to be looking at increasing them." (MSN News : 30/1/2017) (my emphasis)

On that same day (29/1/2017) the BBC reported that,

"More than 10 people have been killed in some of the worst fighting for weeks in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine says seven of its soldiers died in clashes between the army and pro-Russian rebels in the frontline town of Avdiivka over the past two days.

Fighting erupted despite an attempt to renew a ceasefire last month." (BBC News : 30 January 2017)
(my emphasis)

The OSCE also reports that,

"In Donetsk and Luhansk regions the SMM recorded fewer ceasefire violations between the evenings of 27 and 28 January compared with the previous reporting period, and more between the evenings of 28 to 29 January, including an escalation of violence in the Avdiivka-Yasynuvata-Donetsk airport area." (OSCE : 29 January 2017) 

Why would Putin have his soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) suddenly unleash themselves against Ukrainian forces immediately after that Trump-Putin telephone tête-à-tête?

Is this why Trump deliberately stopped short of endorsing [Teresa May's] commitment to continued sanctions against Russia, irrespective of the threat of John McCaine to codify these sanctions into US law?

Is Putin setting up Trump to be the knight in shining armour that will end the war between Russia and Ukraine in the Donbas and, in return, have the sanctions against Russia, himself, and his 'siloviki' clique, lifted?

(to be continued)

Trump and Putin have been secretly setting the scene for the unilateral removal of sanctions against Russia

Andrea Shalal, Sabine Siebold and Andreas Rinke report that,

"Ukraine must have a say in any deal struck between Russia and the United States aimed at ending violence in eastern Ukraine, its deputy foreign minister said on Wednesday.

Ukraine, which has been battling pro-Russian separatists in its eastern Donbass region for nearly three years, is worried that U.S. President Donald Trump will cut Kiev out of any peace negotiations as he attempts to improve ties with Moscow.

"Because we are talking about the future of our country, we don't want to be excluded from the negotiations," Deputy Foreign Minister Olena Zerkal (right) told Reuters. "We don't want to be a card (to be played). We want to be an actor."

"I don't believe in gentleman's agreements anymore," Zerkal said, noting Russia had violated an earlier deal - the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, under which Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan gave up nuclear weapons in exchange for assurances of territorial integrity - when it annexed Crimea. (Reuters : Wed Jan 25, 2017)

These concerns of Olena Zerkal stem not only from the close ties between Putin and Trump's Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, but also because of the recent unprecedented purge at the US State Department and the fact that,

"“Putin is not interested in a reset with the Trump administration that doesn't involve the lifting of sanctions, so I read the Tillerson nomination as a clear sign of intent that Trump is going to remove sanctions.” (Elana Schor and Austin Wright : Politico : 13/12/2016) (my emphasis)

                                           Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) Part 1 (26/1/17)
                                                                                
                                           Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) Part 2 (26/1/17)

As Roland Oliphant  also reports,

"... a senior official in the Centre for Information Security, the FSB department responsible for combating hacking and cyber espionage, Kommersant, a Russian daily, reported. 

Sergei Mikhailov was detained in connection with a probe into allegations that officers at the agency had received money from an unnamed foreign company via an intermediary who worked at a Russian information security firm, the paper reported citing sources close to the FSB. (Daily Telegraph : 25 January 2017) (my emphasis) (cf also: The Moscow Times , RBTH , CyberScoop , Security Affairs)

Sergei Mikhailov and Ruslan Stoyanov (right), the arrested FSB and Kaspersky Labs. officers respectively,  are now being charged with treason by Putin, the first treason charges in Putin's Russia since the fall of the USSR. 

                                             Rachel Maddow (MSNBC) (26/1/17)

In light of these new revelations coming out of Putin's Russia, is it any co-incidence that,

"Russia has been reducing financial assistance to the breakaway republics (the so-called "Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics" - Ed.) with each passing month. It started about four months ago while the occupant and representatives of these so-called "republics" no longer deny this fact. The Russia's capital erosion is efficient," [Deputy Minister of the Temporarily Occupied Territories and IDPs Heorhii Tuka (left)] said. (Censor Net : 23.01.17) (my emphasis)

Can it also be any co-incidence that, according to Ilya Kiva, adviser to Ukraine's Interior Ministry,

"Russia has now started to partially withdraw its troops. It has begun, and there's a move. But it has created very good logistics recently that if the Ukrainian army starts to advance or if there is a political or individual will, they will mass as well," [he said]" (UNIAN : 23 January 2017) (my emphasis)

And whilst this 'partial' reduction of Putin's Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine (Donbas) is ostensibly taking place, Putin is hedging his bets of a Trump removal of sanctions by mobilizing more forces on the Ukraine-Russian border.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The 150th Motorized Rifle Division of the Armed Forces of Russia is actively being formed near the Ukrainian border, which, according to experts, will consist of more than 10,500 men. Inspectors have found large artillery units of the Russian army near Novocherkassk. The Ukrainian side does not exclude that the personnel and armament of the 150th division can be used to facilitate the work of the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine," (UNIAN : 25 January 2017) (my emphasis)

The concerns of Olena Zerkal, it now emerges, are not without foundation.

Trump and Putin have been secretly setting the scene for the unilateral removal of sanctions against Russia, sanctions that were put in place because of Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas) which, so far, has claimed the lives of more than 10,000 men.

(to be continued)

President Trump and Putin banking on political upsets in the upcoming EU elections in Germany, France, and Holland.

At the World Economic Forum, 17-20 January 2017 at  Davos-Klosters in Switzerland, Poroshenko was optimistic about the then president-elect Trump's attitude towards Ukraine.

Now that President Trump is in the driving seat at the White House, and bearing in mind that key 'advisors' he appointed to his cabinet are very sympathetic towards Putin, especially Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, Chief Strategist Steve Bannon, and behind-the-scenes Paul Manafort, is Poroshenko's optimism that President Trump will maintain US sanctions against Putin realistic? (left: Manafort, Tillerson, Bannon)

As Guy Faulconbridge and William James have reported,

"U.S. President-elect Donald Trump will propose offering to end sanctions imposed on Russia over its annexation of Crimea in return for a nuclear arms reduction deal with Moscow, he told The Times of London." (Reuters : Mon Jan 16, 2017) (my emphasis)

It is interesting to note that Putin's main claim to Russia as a 'superpower' lies precisely in the fact that Russia is a formidable nuclear power. 

Furthermore, in June 2015,
 
"President Vladimir Putin has said Russia will put more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles into service this year.
...
Speaking at an arms fair, Mr Putin said the weapons would be able to overcome even the most technically advanced anti-missile defence systems." (BBC News :  16 June 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Simon Shuster, April 2016)

 Yet, as Nick Allen and Roland Oliphant reported in December of last year,

"In comments that alarmed non-proliferation experts and undermined decades of US nuclear policy Mr Trump said: "Let it be an arms race".

The United States must greatly strengthen and expand its nuclear capability until such time as the world comes to its senses regarding nukes

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 22, 2016

We will outmatch them at every pass and outlast them all." (Daily Telegraph : 23 December, 2016) (my emphasis)

What President Trump tweeted about nuclear arms in December 2016, and what he proposed in January 2017, does not quite seem to match up.

If anything, his alarming December tweet seems to flatly contradict his January proposal.

What this seems to indicate is that President Trump is putting foreward this proposal of a 'Nuclear Arms Deal' between himself and Putin as a justification for his determination to lift the US sanctions against Russia for its illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and for Russia's invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas).

In so doing, Trump's proposal will further increase the clarion call of the populist political movements in the EU that the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique be similarly lifted.

In his interview in Davos (see video above) Poroshenko hinted at the emerging opposing views between the EU and President Trump.

"This is very simple question because all the time I'm telling that we Ukraine ... and me as Ukrainian President ...need from European Union ... not only Germany ... just two things ... First is a unity ...this is the vital not only for Ukraine but for the European Union itself ...  but also for the world .."

Hovering dangerously in the background is President Trump's attitude towards NATO.

As reported by James Masters and Katie Hunt,

"Donald Trump's accusation that NATO is "obsolete" has led to "astonishment and agitation" within the alliance, Germany's foreign minister has said.
....

Trump used the interview to restate his doubts about NATO. "I said a long time ago that NATO had problems," he said in the interview.

...

"Number one it was obsolete, because it was designed many, many years ago." (CNN : January 17, 2017) (me emphasis)

Theresa May (left), British PM, who will be visiting President Trump within the next few days,
 
" ... said she was sure that the new president “recognises the importance and significance of Nato”. She added: “I’m also confident the USA will recognise the importance of the co-operation we have in Europe to ensure our collective defence and collective security.” (Financial Times : 20 January, 2017)

Underscoring British recognition of the importance and significance of Nato,

"Defence Secretary Sir Michael Fallon (right) has said that the United Kingdom stands firmly alongside Ukraine as the British Army prepares to broaden its already extended training package to all of the country’s armed forces.
...
Speaking in Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, on his second trip to the country in 18 months, Sir Michael said that the UK is beginning to deliver training to Ukraine’s Air Force as well as its Army and Navy." (UK Gov. : 20 January 2017)

Whether Theresa May will be able to pursuade President Trump about the importance of NATO remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, during a conference call,

"The leaders of Germany, France and Russia agreed on [Wed Jan 18, 2017] to continue working toward a peaceful resolution of the conflict in eastern Ukraine under four-way peace talks that include Kiev, a spokesman for German Chancellor Angela Merkel said." (Reuters : Wed Jan 18, 2017)

Given that France, Germany, and the Netherlands will soon be having elections for the Presidency of France, the Chancellorship of Germany, and a general election in the Netherlands, respectively, will the Minsk2 peace talks between Merkel, Hollande, Putin, and Poroshenko really achieve any viable results?

Everything is in Putin's favour.

Now that he has President Trump covering his back, it is worth his while to drag out these talks about the implementation of Minsk2 until such time as these EU elections are over.

Merkels chances of being re-elected in Germany are fairly high. But let us not forget that so were the chances of Hilary Clinton.

Franscoise Hollande will soon be enjoying his retirement and, who knows, the financial support that Putin is giving to his close friend, Marine Le Pen, may also upset the political apple-cart in France.

And then there is Geert Wilders, the current right-wing populist darling of the Dutch electorate, who will be standing on a platform of a Dutch 'Brexit' from the EU. (right: Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders)

It is therefore in the interest of Putin to continue to drag out talks about Minsk2.

And if Marine Le Pen and Geert Wilders succeed in their respective elections this will give President Trump added ammunition to scrap the US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki'

Is President Trump now also waiting for the outcome of these EU elections before he makes a final pronouncement about the US position on Ukraine? 

(to be continued)

The Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin 45th Presidency of the US

Today, Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin has become the 45th President of the US.

(to be continued)

Ukraine and NATO under threat by Trump's remarks, which pleases Putin

Whilst the world is now focussing on the imminent inauguration of Donald Trump as President of the US, Unian reports that,

"Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 41 times in the past 24 hours with one Ukrainian soldier reported as wounded in action (WIA), according to the press service of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) Headquarters.

...

The enemy continued shelling of the Ukrainian positions in all directions. In the Mariupol sector, the militants fired 82mm mortars on the village of Pavlopil, as well as grenade launchers and small arms on the towns of Maryinka and Krasnohorivka, and the villages of Pavlopil, Hnutove, Vodiane and Shyrokyne." (Unian : 17 January, 2017) (my emphasis)

And as the war between Putin and Ukraine continues, US Vice-President Biden has paid his last visit to Ukraine, urging

"...the international community to maintain its unity against the background of Russian aggression, an UNIAN correspondent reported from Biden’s joint presser with President Petro Poroshenko in Kyiv." (Unian : 16 January 2017)(my emphasis)

Biden further urged that,

"The Donald Trump administration should be a strong supporter and partner of Ukraine, U.S. Vice President Joe Biden said on a visit to Kiev Monday. 

 

Asked if he had received any assurances that Trump would place a similar priority on Ukraine as Barack Obama had done, Biden said “hope springs eternal.” ( Gašper Završnik (right): Politico : 16/1/2017) (my emphasis)

The answer to Biden's question can be gleaned from the interview between Trump and The "Times" and "Bild" newspaper columnists yesterday.

During this interview Trump raised alarms in the EU by stating that,

"Can you understand why eastern Europeans fear Putin and Russia?
Sure. Oh sure, I know that. I mean, I understand what’s going on, I said a long time ago — that Nato had problems. Number one it was obsolete, because it was, you know, designed many, many years ago." (justpaste : 17/01/2017)

To which CNN reports that,

"[Walter] Steinmeier [German Foreign Minister] said he had spoken with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, "who is concerned that President-elect Trump regards NATO as obsolete."

He also noted Trump's position was "in contradiction" to that of James Mattis, Trump's nominee for defense secretary." (CNN : January 16, 2017) (my emphasis)

Is it any surprise that Dmitry Peskov, Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece,

" .... agreed with Trump's assessment of NATO, saying on Monday that "the systematic goal of this organization is confrontation." (ibid CNN) 

 What we shoud bear in mind is that NATO is supporting Ukraine in its war with Putin. 
 
Poroshenko has couched his concerns at Trump's remark about an 'obsolete NATO' in more diplomatic tones.

"[Ukraine President Poroshenko] noted that the risk of spoiling the achievements of postwar cooperation and rolling decades back is high as never before. This always happens when respect to principles, values and international law is lost, said the president. (Unian : 17 January 2017)

Which brings us back to Trump's statement that "NATO is obsolete", and Putin 'jumping with glee' at Trump's remark.

Unian reports that,
 

"Russia is preparing for a full-scale regional war, Russian military expert Pavel Felgenhauer opined, commenting on Russian drills Zapad-2017, which provide for the deployment of personnel of the newly re-created 1st Guards Tank Army of the Western Military District in Belarus, News.online.ua reported." (Unian : 16 January 2017)

 As Felgenhauer (right) speculates,

"Whom could such a mobilization be aimed against? – It is too many people for Syria. It is also too much for the Baltic States, and it would be a suicide against the West to concentrate troops so tightly that they can be annihilated just like Saddam Hussein's army in Iraq. There's only Ukraine that is remaining. This does not mean though that there will be a war, but the preparations by the Russian Federation to a big regional war are in full swing." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

This may, indeed be speculation.

However, Trump's interview with The Times/Bild leaves much to be very anxious about.

(to be continued)

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues wrap itself around Donald Trump's bromance with Putin.

The scarlet thread of the Maidan revolution continues to weave itself through the turbulence of the last few days of Donald Trump before he is given the keys to the White House next week.

This is no more apparent than during the US Senate confirmation hearing of Rex Tillerson, ex Exxon CEO, and Trump's choice for US Secretary of State.

From the very start of the hearing, Democratic leader Senator Cardin voiced deep concerns about Tillerson's move from the CEO of Exxon to the Head of the US State Department.

Senator Cardin further placed Putin's political machinations in other countries centre stage, mentioning not only his direct interference in the US presidential elections, but also his invasion of eastern Ukraine and his annexation of  Ukrainian Crimea.

Throughout these hearings the question of Putin's invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas), and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, was a constant theme in the questioning of many members of the US Senate who were on the confirmation committee. (The full video of Tillerson's confirmation hearing can be found here. Part 1 and Part 2)

Senator Menendez, in particular, mentioned not only Putin's illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his invasion of eastern Ukraine but, more importantly, the use of sanctions to deter such behaviour that flies in the face of international law.

Senator Menendez Part 1

 Senator Menendez Part 2

We now learn that recently,

"Mr Trump told the Wall Street Journal that newly-imposed sanctions on Russia would remain "at least for a period of time" but could then be lifted.

In his interview, Mr Trump said sanctions on Russia could be lifted if Moscow helped Washington in the war against Islamic extremism and in other matters.

"If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody's doing some really great things?" 

He said he hoped a meeting with President Vladimir Putin would be arranged." (BBC News : 14/01/2017) (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Republican Senator Marco Rubio raised with Tillerson during his confirmation hearing the very issue of the recent sanctions of President Obama against Russia following the disclosure that Putin authorised the cyber-hacking during the US presidential elections.

Tillerson's then evasive answers somewhat dovetails with Trump's recent statement that,

"If you get along and if Russia is really helping us, why would anybody have sanctions if somebody's doing some really great things?"  (ibid BBC)

In the final session, and towards the end, of Tillerson's confirmatiom hearing, the scarlet thread of the Maidan revolution continued to weave itself into this hearing.

Yet again did Republican Senator Marco Rubio raise the issue of the sanctions against Putin and his cronies that resulted from his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his invasion of eastern Ukraine (Donbas)

 
Even Donald Trump himself cannot rid himself of the sanctions fallout that Putin brought upon himself and his 'siloviki', AND the Russian people, when he so arrogantly boasted before the Russian people of his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea.

Donald Trump may easily undo President Obama's recent sanctions against Putin's underlings, who obeyed his orders to bolster Trump's chances of gaining the US presidency through the systemmatic hacking of the computers of the Democratic Party.

For Trump to undo the sanctions against Putin because of his war with Ukraine, and his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, is entirely another matter.

Even his appointment of Steve Bannon as one of his senior advisors, and who continues to assiduously cultivate right-wing and populist political organizations all over the EU,  cannot be sure that these organizations will achieve the political power that they so dearly seek.

The governments of the EU are now galvanised to prevent Putin from similarly interfering in their elections in support of the EU's right-wing and populist political organizations.

Already last month David M. Herszenhorn (left) reported that,

"European governments are bracing for cyber-meddling by Moscow in upcoming national elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany." (Politico : 13 Dec. 2016) (my emphasis)

He further reported that,

 "...in recent weeks, there were reports of a Russian-directed false news campaign aimed at defeating the December 4 constitutional referendum in Italy. Voters rejected the changes, prompting the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi." (ibid Herszenhorn) (my emphasis)

We now live in an age of what is fast coming to be known as the age of cyber warfare.

This weaponising of information is, what Peter Pomerantsev (right) describes as,

"Instead of ushering [in] a new era of truth-telling, the information age allows lies to spread in what techies call ‘digital wildfires’. By the time a fact-checker has caught a lie, thousands more have been created, and the sheer volume of ‘disinformation cascades’ make unreality unstoppable. All that matters is that the lie is clickable, and what determines that is how it feeds into people’s existing prejudices" (Granta : 20th July 2016) (my emphasis)

 And so the scarlet thread of Maidan continues wrap itself around Donald Trump's bromance with Putin.

What's sauce for the goose

Is sauce for the gander

(to be continued)

Trump is emulating 'the Putin way' in forcing the US Senate to confirm his cabinet nominees.

Nepotism is defined as,

"The practice among those with power or influence of favouring relatives or friends, especially by giving them jobs" (Oxford Dictionary)

Using his powers as Head of the Committee for External Relations in the St Petersburg Administration during the late 1990's,  Putin became the central figure of,

"The dacha cooperative Ozero, which was founded on November 10, 1996 by Vladimir Smirnov (head), Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Yakunin, Andrei Fursenko, Sergey Fursenko, Yury Kovalchuk, Viktor Myachin, and Nikolay Shamalov.

This initial gang of Putin's has expanded to include other key figures in his Kremlin administration.

The initial gang are, to this day, are still fully in control of the FINANCES (Rossiya Bank) of his now expanded gang.

The late Boris Nemtsov exposed not only the nepotistic nature of this gang, but the high degree of nepotism that afforded even the children of this gang to become very rich and powerful.

Whilst there are, indeed, many checks and balances in the US constitution to prevent any president from abusing his powers through nepotism, or by surrounding himself with a coterie of friends rather than with those men and women who are admirably qualified and motivated to serve the American public to the best of their abilities, nonetheless president-elect Trump seems to have choosen to attempt to follow 'the Putin way'.

Besides the consternation that has been caused by his many 'Putin-friendly' inner-circle advisors that he has appointed, Trump has now gone one step further by having his nominated cabinet members ratified by the US Senate without most of them having gone through the complete process of the many background checks that they are obliged to go through eg FBI Checks, Financial checks, CIA checks, amongst others.

 
Added to which, Trump has appointed his son-in-law to his 'inner circle advisors', in much the same way as Putin doled out plum jobs to some of both his cousins and his 'siloviki's' children.

 
For the future of Ukraine, this vetting process is crucial. 

In the words of Senator John McCaine,

"I'm very concerned about what this administration's attitude or behaviour towards Vladimir Putin will be.

I've just came back with Amy Kovachar(?) and (Senator) Lindsey Graham from the Baltics ... Georgia ... Ukraine ... and I'm telling you they are very very worried there about what America will be and whether we will continue to have the strong relationship with them which will help them resist Vladimir Putin's effort to destabilise them"

Will Trump succeed in forcing the US Senate hearings to give way to his following 'the Putin way'?

(to be contined)

Putin and Trump now the protectors of Victor Yanukovich

Whilst the airwaves and the internet are being flooded with Putin's success in getting his 'joined-at- the-hip-twin', Donald Trump, elected president of the US, less attention has been focussed on even more strategic goals of Putin concerning the upcoming elections in many critical EU states in 2017.

As David M. Herszenhorn (left) reported in mid-December of last year,

"European governments are bracing for cyber-meddling by Moscow in upcoming national elections in France, the Netherlands and Germany.
...
In a remarkable two-page warning late last week, Hans-Georg Maaßen, the head of Germany’s Federal Office for Protection of the Constitution, a domestic security agency, said there was a clear threat from Russian hackers seeking to sow “uncertainty in German society” and to destabilize the country.
...
In France, Marine Le Pen, the leader of the far-right National Front, has admitted taking an €11 million loan from a Russian bank, and had hoped to get much more. But Russian cyber-operatives might be just as content to aid the conservative candidate François Fillon, who is known as a long-time defender of Russia and a critic of Western sanctions against the Kremlin." (Politico : 13/12/16) (my emphasis)

And as recently as yesterday,

"German politicians, press and police officials say news report from the U.S. right-wing news website Breitbart that suggested a “mob” had “chanted ‘Allahu Akhbar’” and set fire to a church in Dortmund have been greatly exaggerated.
 ...
Local newspaper Ruhr Nachrichten, which published reports on events that happened on New Year’s Eve, said [Breitbart's] online reporting had been distorted to produce “fake news, hate and propaganda.” (Laurens Cerulus : Politico : 1/7/17) (my emphasis)

And Trump's appointed Chief Strategist is none other than Steve Bannon (right), former chairman of Breitbart News!

 Frances Burwell (left) correctly sums up Putin's strategy to affect the German, French, and Dutch elections in this year as,

"This year will see elections in the Netherlands, France, Germany, and perhaps Italy. By not responding to US sanctions with a tit-for-tat, Putin undoubtedly hopes to sway opinion in Europe, convincing voters that he is not a threat.

His ultimate goal of course is the removal of European and US sanctions on Russia, imposed for its actions in Ukraine, including the annexation of Crimea." (The Telegraph : 5 January 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin's avid supporters in the EU are, no doubt, lapping up Trump's 'tweeting' offensive in support of Putin, no matter what the true facts of any event may be that implicates Putin in generating not only fake news but, more importantly, generating 'conspiracy theories'.

Putin has morphed the old 'maskirovka' strategy of Russian generals into the cyber age.

There is another dimension to the Putin-Trump connection that has, somehow, been lost to many political commentators. 

I refer, of course, to the seminal exposure by Karen Dawisha of Putin's connection to the Russian Mafia during his political baptism in St. Petersburg in the 1990's. (cf pp 126-132 : Putin' Kleptocracy. Who Owns Russia?)

Putin's Kleptocracy : Published 6 October 2014 Woodrow Wilson Centre: Youtube Discussion

What is now becoming public is Trump's connection to the American Mafia in the 1980's and 1990's.  

(cf: link for full interview)

 
Then of course, we have the criminal background of Vicor Yanukovich, who now enjoys the protection of Putin, and who has stolen billions ...... yes ..... billions of $'s from Ukraine .... helped by none other than Paul Manafort to become president of Ukraine, a former, AND CURRENT, advisor to .... yes ... you guessed it ... Donald Trump. (pic: Manafort left : Trump Right)

The Ukrainians, having rid themselves of Yanukovich, now find themselves in the un-envious position of having to contemplate the fact that Victor Yanukovich is now being protected by both Putin and Trump.

As the old saying goes,

Birds of a feather,

Flock together.

(to be continued)

Will a president Trump give Putin the "green light" to complete his invasion of Mariupol?

As the day draws closer when Donald Trump will receive the keys to the White House and the Oval Office, the "tweet" diplomacy of Trump continues to confound and scare many, especially in his growing 'spat' with US Intelligence agencies over Putin's interference in the US presidential elctions.

At 5:14 pm - 3 Jan 2017 yet another Trump "tweet", in which he disparaged the US Intelligence Agencies that will soon be under his command, hit the internet ether.

And then, at 4:22 am (US Time) yesterday morning Trump tweeted yet again, only this time, as reported by Julian Borger,

"Leading Republicans broke with Donald Trump on Wednesday after the president-elect appeared to put more faith in WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange than in US intelligence agencies.

The sharp differences on a highly charged national security issue are the latest sign that matters of intelligence and policy towards Russia reflect a deep fault line in Trump’s relationship with the Republican party establishment." (The Guardian : Thursday 5 January 2017) (my emphasis)

As reported by Steve Benen,

"John McCain (pic: right) and Lindsey Graham (pic: left) are backing off of their push for a select committee on cybersecurity after Russian interference in the election, bowing to the political reality that the Senate Republican Conference largely does not back their idea. […]

...McCain said he’d spoken to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) about the matter. McConnell prefers to use the Intelligence Committee to spearhead the cyber investigation, and McCain said their discussions had done little to move the GOP leader. “He said he doesn’t think we need it,” McCain said." (MSNBC : 04/01/17) (my emphasis)

John McCain, a staunch supporter of Ukraine, and Chairman of the US Armed Services Committee, must now be weighing up his chances of getting president-elect Donald Trump to arm Ukraine with lethal weaponry against Putin's armed forces in eastern Ukraine (Donbas), a persistent call of his that has always fallen on the deaf ears of President Obama. 

The implications for Ukraine of Trump's current "tweets" are already being incorporated into Putin's next moves in his war with Ukraine.

As reported yesterday by Mansur Mirovalev (left), a Moscow-based writer and video journalist who covers wars and peace in the former Soviet Union,

"In 2013, the North Crimean Canal drew 1.5 million cubic meters of water. It amounted to about 85 percent of Crimea's drinking and irrigation water. But shortly after the annexation, Ukrainian authorities shut the canal with a hastily-built dam. 

[T]he water blockade will wrack Crimea's agriculture, economy and population of 2.3 million for years to come, according to environmentalists, irrigation experts and officials.

Chronic water shortages in Crimea seem inevitable - and may prompt resettlement of its residents to Russia, they warn.

"Hundreds of thousands will have to be relocated," Vladimir Garnachuk, political activist and head of Clean Coast Crimea, a non-profit monitor, told Al Jazeera . "Soon, we will see dust storms with salt that will move to the centre of Crimea." (Aljazeera : 4/1/2017) (my emphasis)

The critical question now for Ukrainian President Poroshenko is,

"Will a president Trump give Putin the "green light" to complete his invasion of Mariupol so that Putin can relieve the Ukrainian "water blockade" of Ukrainian annexed Crimea and, at the same time, have his land-bridge between Ukrainian Crimea and Russia?"


(to be continued)