Putin has thrown down the gauntlet. How will Zelenskiy respond?

Even before his inauguration as Ukraine's next president, Putin has already pounced upon Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Speaking at a press conference at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing,


"Putin said on Saturday Moscow was considering offering all Ukrainian citizens fast-tracked Russian passports, a move likely to anger some politicians in Ukraine which has been at war with pro-Russian separatists since 2014." (Vladimir Soldatkin : Reuters : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Not only is Putin displaying his contempt for Zelenskiy and ALL Ukrainians but, as Soldatkin further reports,

"[Putin] also wanted to know Zelenskiy’s position on the conflict in eastern Ukraine, saying he had the impression that Zelenskiy would not implement the terms of a peace deal sealed in Minsk in 2015 despite Ukrainians being tired of the war.

Now recall that in his victory speech,

" ... Zelenskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." ( AFP YouTube )

As Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' wrote,

"[Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format""

whilst at the same time,

 "... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And now Putin is goading Zelenskiy to try and "remodel" his Minsk2 accords by remarking that,

“I’d discuss this matter with him with pleasure as I want to understand his stance ...” (ibid Vladimir Soldatkin)

And standing side-by-side with Putin, we now have his Manchurian candidate, Donald Trump, signalling that,

" ...  he is keen on pursuing allegations that Ukraine tried to hamper his presidential bid in 2016.

Speaking on his favorite Fox News Channel, which provides uncritical, partisan support for Trump, the president said “big” and “incredible” new allegations have emerged that Ukraine tried to influence the outcome of the 2016 election in favor of his rival, Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton." (Askold Krushelnycky : KyivPost : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (Fox News : YouTube : 25 April 2019)

And whilst Manchurian candidate Trump is standing side-by-side with Putin, Christopher Miller reports that,

"The U.S. State Department has slammed an order by Russian President Vladimir Putin to simplify the procedure for people living in parts of eastern Ukraine held by Russia-backed separatists to obtain Russian citizenship.

"Russia, through this highly provocative action, is intensifying its assault on Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity," the State Department said in a statement on April 24." (RFERL : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, US Congressional Representative Michael McCaul (right) is urging that,

"Washington should increase foreign military sales and security assistance to Ukraine.
.......
There are more actions we can take. Specifically, we should develop an effective Black Sea strategy where the United States, NATO, and other U.S. allies can regularly deploy naval assets there to better support Ukraine against Russia.  We should also increase foreign military sales and security assistance to Ukraine." (The National Interest : 27 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin has already warned that,

"Russia will take direct action to counter NATO’s drills in the Black Sea.

The country’s deputy foreign minister, Alexander Grushko, slammed the military alliance for its movements in the strategic region saying they would “undermine stability. His comments come as five NATO ships took part in Sea Shield 2019, an annual Romanian-led naval exercise in the Black Sea. When questioned on how Moscow views the military conglomerate’s build-up in the region, he responded: “Definitely negative”. (Laura O'Callaghan : Express : 14 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin wants to shower Ukraine with Russian passports,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 23 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with two Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 27 April 2019) (my emphasis)

 RFERL (26 April, 2019)

Ukraine's new incoming president, Volodmyr Zelenskiy, faces tough challenges ahead.

Putin has thrown down the gauntlet.

How will Zelenskiy respond?

(to be continued)

With Volodymyr Zelenski's election win, will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

The euphoria of the Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) win in Ukraine's presidential elections is over, and a bad hangover has begun to set in.

As reported by AFP (Agence France Presse),

"... [M]any doubt the political neophyte will be able to stand up to Putin and revive the struggling economy.

Questions have also been raised over his close ties to Israel-based tycoon Igor Kolomoysky." (AFP : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: Zelenskiy’s team and oligarch Kolomoisky : KyivPost)

YouTube (22 April, 2019)

In his victory speech,

" ... Zelinskiy outlined his priorities. To start revamping the 2015 Minsk accords to end hostilities with pro-Russian separatists in the east [of Ukraine] ..." (cf  AFP YouTube video above)

More significantly, Vladimir Frolov (right) of 'The Moscow Times' neatly points to the stumbling blocks that president-elect Volodymyr Zelinskiy will have to face in trying to 'revamp' the 2015 Minsk accords.

• "Based on what Zelenskiy said about the Donbass, it is clear that he has only a vague understanding of the details of the agreement.  

• [Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format".

•  ... [T]he head spokesperson of Zelenskiy's election headquarters, Dmitry Razumkov, confirmed that Zelenskiy's adherence to the Minsk negotiation process is untenable ("all the anti-Russia sanctions are linked to it"), but made it clear that Zelenskiy would not implement the Minsk agreements as interpreted by Russia" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 

Sergey Lavrov (left), that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, has already poured cold water over Zelenskiy's rhetoric about the Minsk accords by stating that,

"Fulfilling the Minsk agreements and resolving this problem is our direct interest," Sergey Lavrov said at the Assembly of the Council for Foreign and Defence Policy. "We achieved a great feat securing Minsk II in the UN Security Council resolution." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Vladimir Frolov further states that,

"Zelenskiy will not be able to recognize Russian sovereignty over the Crimea (although he did declare that Crimea has de facto been lost to Ukraine and he has no intention of fighting Russia over it)." (ibid Vladimir Frolov) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that in 2015, a year after Putin invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, Putin's then installed prime minister of Ukraine's Crimea, Sergei Aksyonov, stated that,

"Crimea's prime minister has told the BBC the peninsula has returned to its historical Russian homeland and will never again be part of Ukraine." (BBC : 16 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

Four years later (2019), the president-elect of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenski, seems to be in complete agreement with Sergei Aksyonov that Ukraine's Crimea,

" .... will never again be part of Ukraine (BBC 2015)..." and that, " ... he [Zelinskiy] has no intention of fighting Russia over it (Vladimir Frolov)

Zelenskiy (2019)       Aksyonov (2015)

And whilst president-elect Zelenskiy has no intention of fighting Russia over Ukraine's Crimea, UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces in the past 24 hours mounted 14 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action, and another three as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 23 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Justin Lynch also writes,

"Zelensky will find his sense of humor—and substance—tested even before his inauguration, which is expected to come about a month after the official results are announced, probably next week. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is not noted for his mirth, may be ready to pounce sooner amid a Russian military and naval buildup, foreign and Ukrainian military officials told Foreign Policy." (Foreign Policy : 22 April, 2019) (my emphasis) 


Will Putin now pounce against Ukraine?

 

 (to be continued)

Putin is now waiting in the wings to time his invasion of Ukraine

As the minutes slowly tick down towards Ukraine's presidential election, we learn from an online military magazine that,

"Russian officials publicly threaten Ukraine with “military conflict”, according to TASS.

Russia’s Federation Council on Wednesday approved a statement saying that violations of the rules of navigation by Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait are fraught with a military conflict with Russia in which NATO may be involved.
The Federation Council’s statement about NATO’s destructive policies being implemented since the alliance’s creation in 1949 was timed for the organization’s 70th anniversary." (Defence Blog : 10 April, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: UNIAN: 11 April, 2019)

And ominously,

"Ukrainian MP and coordinator of the Information Resistance OSINT Group Dmytro Tymchuk (left) has said the Russian Federation has sent up to 10 transportation platforms with T-72 tanks and four Grad multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) to occupied Donbas, eastern Ukraine.
...
 "Up to 10 platforms with T-72 tanks and four 122mm Grad MLRS have been redeployed from the territory of the Russian Federation," he wrote on Facebook on April 12. About 2,300 tonnes of fuel and lubricants were reportedly delivered from Russia for its occupation forces in Donbas, Tymchuk added." (UNIAN : 12 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Is this a response to the fact that,

"Construction of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Germany is bound to face further long delays, forcing Moscow to come to an agreement with Ukraine on future gas transits, a senior EU official said on Thursday." (Alissa de Carbonnel (right): Reuters : 11 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

As Colin Cleary, the director for energy diplomacy for Europe at the State Department’s U.S. bureau for energy resources stated,

“[Putin's] not crazy. [Nord Stream 2] makes a lot of sense. They want to hurt Ukraine, they want to have a special relationship with Germany.” (ibid Alissa de Carbonnel)

As UNIAN also reports,

"In addition to uncertainties over the pipeline’s route due to pending approval from Denmark, and how it will comply with EU rules, [Klaus-Dieter Borchardt (left), a senior energy official at the European Commission,]
said he expected that gas transits from Germany via the Czech Republic to other EU states would also not be in place by 2020." (UNIAN : 12 April, 2019) (my emphasis)


Where all of this will head to now hangs on the choice that the people of Ukraine will make during the second round of the impending presidential election.

As Alexander J. Motyl writes,

"Ukraine's TV president [played by the presidential contender Volodymyr Zelensky (right)] is dangerously pro-Russian.
...
Unforgivable is the absence from [Volodymyr Zelensky's comic] show of Russia or Russian President Vladimir Putin. In its alternate universe, Crimea and Donbass are not occupied. There is no war. There are no deaths. There is no mention of Russian attempts to quash Ukrainian independence since 1991. 
......
 At best, then, a President Zelensky would be prone to serious mistakes in his relations with Putin; at worst, he might be willing to make concessions that would hollow out Ukrainian sovereignty." (Foreign Policy : 1 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Already Zelensky promises to revive the 'dead horse' of Minsk2.

"In case he wins, Zelenskiy intends to invite the United Kingdom and the United States to participate in the Normandy talks, whilst Putin's old pal Viktor Medvedchuk will lose his role of mediator in negotiations with Russia." (UNIAN : 10 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"He is also said to be ready for direct talks with Russia with the participation of international partners, while no talks are planned with the "Luhansk People’s Republic" and "Donetsk People’s Republic" militants. (ibid UNIAN)

As I wrote in my last blog entry (7 April, 2019),

"Putin has already succeeded in propelling such a fragile 'ego'-candidate into the White House and, as Oliver Caroll writes,

“Russia sees Zelensky as a new Macron or Trump, a novice to be exploited and played with,” Frolov [the former diplomat and foreign policy expert] believes." (The Independent : 7 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Like the Maidan revolution of 2014, the people of  Ukraine now stand at a political crossroad.

Whomsoever they choose as their next president, Putin is waiting in the wings to invade Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Putin is having sleepless nights about the Ukrainian presidential elections.

In my last blog entry (28 March, 2019) I wrote that,

"Similarly, William Barr's unprecedented conclusion that Trump did not "obstruct justice" has hit the judicial rails, and may be on the verge of 'exploding in his face'. (MSNBC: 27 March, 2019)

Barr may yet be " ... hoist by his own petard ..." meaning that the bomb-maker i.e exonerating Trump from obstructing justice, may yet be blown up by his own bomb."

In a strange turn of fate, we now have Volodymyr Zelensky (left), Poroshenko’s second-round opponent and the unexpected presidential favourite, similarly " ... hoist by his own petard .."

I refer, of course, to the absurd attempt by Zelensky, to wrong-foot President Poroshenko by calling upon hims to take a drug test before he would debate him.

Poroshenko called Zelensky's bluff (right), and now Zelensky, an actor with roles in many comedies and talk shows, has to step up to the plate to debate a seasoned politician, whom Putin hates, in a stadium packed with thousands of spectators from both camps.

Comedians normally bask in the sunshine of their supporters. They do not perform where they know that half of the audience will ridicule them.

Like Trump, their ego's are just too fragile to confront a large audience that will not shower them with adulation.

Putin has already succeeded in propelling such a fragile 'ego'-candidate into the White House and, as Oliver Caroll writes,

“Russia sees Zelensky as a new Macron or Trump, a novice to be exploited and played with,” Frolov [the former diplomat and foreign policy expert] believes." (The Independent : 7 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Zelensky the comedian has failed in wrong-footing President Poroshenko, UNIAN reports that,

"Soldiers with 2nd Brigade Combat Team, 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault) will case their colors and deploy to Ukraine within days. About 150 soldiers will deploy in mid-April, according to a Friday release from the 101st Airborne, and they are expected to be gone for nine months." (UNIAN : 6 April, 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Two ships from Standing NATO Maritime Group Two (SNMG2) arrived in Odessa, Ukraine this week for a routine port visit.
...
Since Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, NATO has increased its presence in the Black Sea.

Patrols by NATO Maritime Groups increased in 2018 to three patrols for each group for a total of 120 days of NATO Group presence over the year, compared to two patrols for each group and a total of 80 days in 2017, say the Alliance." (George Allison: UK Defence Journal : 5 April 2019) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

And as reported in a Putin supporting DW documentary, "On the eve of presidential elections in Ukraine, the power struggle on the Sea of Asov is coming to a head. The Sea of Azov borders both Ukraine and Russia". (DW: Youtube : 26 March 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, US Oklahoma Senator Jim Inhofe (left) recently wrote that,

"Additional U.S. sanctions must be on the table to impose direct costs on Putin and his henchmen. We should also work closely with the NATO alliance to enhance our military presence and capabilities in the Black Sea region.
...
Now it’s time to increase funding for the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, as well as the State Department’s security assistance programs. And a larger share of this funding should go to support defensive lethal aid that will make Ukraine a more difficult target for Putin’s aggression." (Politico Magazine: 4 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

On the economic front, Putin is now resorting to 'muzzling' his Statistical Committee so that the Russian people are kept in the dark about just by how much they are paying for Putin's dangerous adventurisms abroad.

As reported by Paul Goble (right),

"The Russian state statistical committee has announced that it will stop publishing monthly figures on the state of Russian incomes, likely because recent months have shown such a precipitous drop in them (finanz.ru/novosti/lichnyye-finansy/rosstat-prekrashchaet-publikaciyu-ezhemesyachnykh-dannykh-po-dokhodam-rossiyan-1028042521)." Window on Eurasia : 1 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

Which raises the question,

"For how long can Putin continue to pull the wool over the eyes of the Russian people about the real cost of his war with Ukraine?"

(to be continued)

Ukraine's Crimea is now becoming an albatross around Putin's neck.

The "Mueller Report", that investigated possible collusion between Trump and Putin during the 2016 US Presidential elections has, according to Trump appointee, William Barr, exonerated Trump and, by implication, Putin.

The victory dance of Trump and Putin may, however, be rather short lived.

As the old saying goes, "It ain't over till the fat lady sings". In other words, " ... one should not presume to know the outcome of an investigation which is still in progress."

It now transpires that, as reported by Rachel Maddow (link: 1 and 2), Mueller's Special Council still has ongoing investigations that may yet prove rather problematic for Trump. (MSNBC : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Similarly, William Barr's unprecedented conclusion that Trump did not "obstruct justice" has hit the judicial rails, and may be on the verge of 'exploding in his face'. (MSNBC: 27 March, 2019)

Barr may yet be " ... hoist by his own petard ..." meaning that the bomb-maker i.e exonerating Trump from obstructing justice, may yet be blown up by his own bomb.

MSNBC: 27 March, 2019 (position 15:28)

And whilst Putin may still be rubbing his hands together in glee at Barr's exoneration of himself and Trump, Mike Pompeo, Trump's Secretary of State, has recently stated that,

"U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Wednesday (27 March, 2019 position: 4:20:15) he hoped to announce with NATO allies visiting Washington next week additional steps to push back on Russia over its aggression in Ukraine.

 “Next week I am hopeful ... I will be able to announce another series of actions that we will jointly take together,” Pompeo told a House Appropriations Subcommittee hearing on the State Department's budget request for 2020, according to Reuters. He also acknowledged that Washington could have done more to address Moscow’s activity in Ukraine." (UNIAN : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

  Pompeo address to Congress (27 March, 2019)

Pompeo's statements are not all that should concern Putin.

As reported by Shadia Nasralla (left),

"Oil prices were down on Thursday, extending losses into a second consecutive session following a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories.
...
U.S. crude inventories rose last week by 2.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations for a decrease of 1.2 million barrels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said.

Demand concerns on the back of economic jitters linked to the U.S.-Chinese trade war have also capped prices. " (Reuters : 28 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Adding to which,

"Denmark has decided not to authorize the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline in its exclusive economic zone in the Baltic Sea. "Gazprom saw another refusal from Denmark on the Nord Stream 2 route," Naftogaz press service reported via Twitter." (Unian : 27 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

That the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been spiked by Denmark simply adds to Russia's continual descend into a critical economic position, a situation against which Putin is defenseless.

As Paul Goble (left) reports,

"Preparing for even greater isolation, Russian powers that be are “now economizing on almost everything and particularly on programs” that are for ordinary Russians, Sergey Shelin (right) says. But they are not reducing spending on security because that is about self-defense or on giant projects, the easiest way to give money to their rich allies." (Window on Eurasia : 26 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

This call by Putin for yet more belt-tightening by the Russian people comes against the backdrop, as Roman Goncharenko (right) writes, that,

"Today, a sense of disappointment and frustration pervades the country [Russia]. And the Kremlin has not yet found a way of boosting approval ratings.
...
There is no more public debate over whether Crimea truly belongs to Ukraine or Russia. Even though back in 2014 most Russians did not really question the annexation of the peninsula, either. Konstantin Gaase says that now, "even the Russian opposition has stopped talking about Crimea." (DW : 15 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It is therefor no wonder that, as Marc Bennetts reports,

" Putin, rap and Night Wolves: Russia marks 5 years in Crimea. No shortage of flag-waving as Russian president pays a visit, but no celebrations in Moscow this year.
...
[A]nalysts suggest that a rising resentment of the economic costs of the annexation of [Ukraine's] Crimea, as well as of Russia’s military campaign in Syria, is more likely to be behind the Kremlin’s reluctance to hold a triumphant rally near Red Square this year.
......
“During the last year, sociologists began to hear in focus groups that Crimea has cost us too much, and that we generally spend too much on foreign military adventures,” said Yekaterina Schulmann" (Politico : 20 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's Crimea is now becoming an albatross around Putin's neck.
  

(to be continued)

Putin, Trump, and Deutsche Bank.

On 9 January, 2019, I wrote that,

"One can now safely say that Angela Merkel, together with the German business community is, and always has been, covering Putin's economic back, irrespective of Gazprom being a critical factor in Putin's war with Ukraine!

The completion of the Nord Stream2 project is now more critical for Putin as the US House of Congress begins to block Trump's attempt to remove US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique." (cf. also Alan Rappeport above)

How long, now, will Merkel be able to continue with her pretense that Nord Stream2 is a purely economic relationship between herself and Putin? (Blog Entry 9 January, 2019)

Recent events in the banking world of Germany further underscores the degree and extent to which Putinversteher Angela Merkel will go to cover Putin's, and his Kremlin 'siloviki's', economic back.

I refer, of course, to the current scrabble by Merkel to save Deutsche Bank, the favoured German bank of Trump, Putin, and the Kremlin 'siloviki'

As reported by Matthew Lynn (left),

"Over the last few years, the Germans, the European Central Bank, and the EU itself, have been adamant that banks shouldn’t be bailed out inside the eurozone. Along the way, Greek, Cypriot, Italian and Irish banks have all been allowed to go to the wall or squeezed to extinction.
...
But hold on. There seems to be an exception to that austere financial regime. Big German banks. With the once mighty Deutsche Bank in serious trouble, it turns out there is nothing wrong with the [German] government orchestrating what amounts to a rescue after all." (The Spectator : 19 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Matthew Lynn goes on to state that,

" ... That lays bare a stark truth about the eurozone, and indeed the EU. There is one rule for Germany, and another for everyone else." (ibid Matthew Lynn)

Arthur Sullivan perhaps best sums up WHY Merkel believes there is one rule for Germany, and another for everyone else. He reports that,

"Deutsche Bank's problems have been even more pronounced. On top of its dire financial performance — it made a net loss of €6 billion between 2011 and 2018 — it has been bogged down with several major scandals, including the Libor scandal, where fraudulent manipulation of interest rates took place for years, and the ongoing money laundering probe into Danske Bank." (DW : 10 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

This  "one rule for Germany, and another for everyone else", is also true in the case of Nord Stream 2, Putin's desperate attempt to ensure its completion so that he will not have to pay into Ukraine's coffers for sending gas to the EU through Ukraine's gas pipelines.

Recall that in February of this year,

"Under a deal agreed earlier in February, the [Nord Stream 2] pipeline must meet four EU rules, including a telecoms-style unbundling requirement whereby other suppliers be allowed access to the pipeline.

However, Germany will be the ultimate arbiter of how the regulations are applied. " (Adam Vaughan:The Guardian : 25 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

Recent revelations in the US have, however, opened up a can of worms for Germany's Deutsche Bank.

The intimate links between Deutsche Bank and Putin and Trump is now revealing just how Trump was (and still is) possibly on Putin's payroll.

As reported by Chris Matthews (right),

"The House Intelligence Committee is now seeking to determine whether President Trump is currently under the influence of the Kremlin. .... the president may be compromised by his possible financial entanglements with Russia ..." (MSNBC : 19 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

David Enrich further reveals just how Deutsche Bank poured money into the Trump coffers whilst knowing that NO US bank would loan Trump any money.

Is this how Putin siphoned money into the Trump coffers and ensnared him?

More importantly, we have to ask the question,

"In having to now bail out Deutsche Bank, contrary to EU banking regulations, just how far will Merkel go to cover Putin's economic back, and at the expense of Ukraine?"

Without Deutsche Bank, what would happen to the already parlous state of the Russian economy?

Would Putin be able to continue pouring money into Ukraine's Crimea whilst the Russian people have to endure rising economic hardships?

As Paul Goble (left) writes,

"The USSR fell apart as a result of a whole list of problems. Crimea too can become precisely that point of no return” about which future historians will speak.  And they will view the annexation of Crimea not as a victory to be celebrated but as a curse that should have been avoided." (Window on Eurasia : 18 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Like Trump, Putin is now trapped in a dangerous situation of his own making.

As the Ukrainian presidential elections loom ever closer, Mykola Vorobiov (left) reports that,

"Expectations are high that Russia will attempt to interfere in the upcoming Ukrainian presidential elections, scheduled for March 31.
...
Having failed, since 2014, to force Kyiv back into its orbit using purely military means, the Kremlin has been gearing up a broad spectrum of instruments—including cyberattacks, disinformation, courting of pro-Russian politicians and their supporters, inflaming of religious tensions, as well as threats of further military escalation—in order to put pressure on Ukraine via its democratic process. (Jamestown : 11 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

And as Putin ramps up his attack on Ukraine's democratic process, Rikard Jozwiak reports that,

"The United States, together with the European Union and Canada, imposed new sanctions on March 15 on more than a dozen Russian officials and businesses in response to the country's "continued aggression in Ukraine." (RFERL : 15 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"NATO has again confirmed future membership for Ukraine in the Alliance, noting strengthened political and practical support for Kyiv since illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia and events in Donbas.

This message was delivered in the annual report by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (left), which was released on Thursday at NATO headquarters in Brussels." (KyivPost : 14 March,2019) (my emphasis)

Perhaps of even more significance,

"Denmark’s foreign minister [Anders Samuelsen (right)] said Wednesday his country hasn’t yet decided whether to allow a joint German-Russian gas pipeline [Nord Stream 2] to pass through its territorial waters, but suggested Moscow’s continued aggression in Ukraine was making it less likely to be approved." (Associated Press : 6 March, 2019) (my emphasis)


So whilst Putinversteher Merkel is trying to strong-arm the EU into accepting Nord Stream 2, little Denmark is not willing to succumb to her strong-arm tactics.

Adding to Putin's woes, Roman Goncharenko writes that,

"Today, a sense of disappointment and frustration pervades the country [Russia]. And the Kremlin has not yet found a way of boosting approval ratings.
...
There is no more public debate over whether Crimea truly belongs to Ukraine or Russia. Even though back in 2014 most Russians did not really question the annexation of the peninsula, either. Konstantin Gaase says that now, "even the Russian opposition has stopped talking about Crimea." (DW : 15 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

As more and more frustrations are piled up on Putin, the real danger that this poses is that he will lash out against Ukraine.

Recall that in 2014, Angela Merkel herself stated that she was,

" .... bewildered by the man in charge of one of the world’s largest countries. After speaking with Mr Putin, she said she was not sure he was in touch with reality." (Daniel Piotrwoski (right): News AU: 5 March, 2014)

Merkel's tune about Putin's state-of-mind has somewhat changed since then, now that the German-Russian Nord stream 2 pipeline promises to make Germany the gas-hub of Europe.

                                                            Merkel and Putin                       Putin and Schröder

(Former German Chancellor, Gerhard Schröder, currently serves as a board member of several consortia, including the Nord Stream 2 consortium, in which Russian-government-controlled energy company Gazprom is either the majority or sole shareholder.)

As the thorn of Ukraine digs deeper into the wilting Russian economy of Putin, will Putin's 'itchy' finger press the button that will unleash his armed forces bordering Ukraine's border, and those now in Ukraine's Crimea, against Ukraine?

Recall that in 2014, "While lounging in a chair like a world-weary aristrocrat, [Putin] insisted Russia was seeking to de-escalate tensions [with Ukraine]. But his speech came as Russian troops fired warning shots at Ukrainian soldiers and Russia fired a nuclear capable missile." (ibid Daniel Piotrwoski)

As Roman Goncharenko writes,

"Today (2019), a sense of disappointment and frustration pervades the country [Russia]. And the Kremlin has not yet found a way of boosting approval ratings."

Like Trump, Putin is now trapped in a dangerous situation of his own making.

(to be continued)

Will Putin's 'itchy' nuclear finger unleash the unthinkable?

In my blog entry of (19 Jan., 2019), I wrote that,

"Let us cast our minds back to July of 2014, when Sergey Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, stated that,

"If it comes to aggression against Russian territory, which Sevastopol and Crimea are parts of, I would not advise anyone to do this".

He then added, "We have the doctrine of national security, and it very clearly regulates the actions, which will be taken in this case".

This is a not-so-subtle threat to use nuclear weapons to retain Crimea" (Zachary Keck : The Diplomat : 11 July, 2014) (my emphasis)

In March of 2015 it was also reported that,

"President Vladimir Putin has said he was ready to put Russia's nuclear weapons on standby during tensions over the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea." (BBC News : 15 March, 2015) (my emphasis) (blog entry : 19 Jan., 2019)

 And in January of this year (2019), Joe Gamp reported that,

"RUSSIA has deployed an arsenal of nuclear-capable missiles close to the border of Ukraine - stoking further tensions between the two Crimean adversaries following an incident on the Sea of Azov in November." (Express : 20 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

Those missiles are NOW on standby since, as reported by UNIAN,

"Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces Gen. Viktor Muzhenko (right) has announced that Russia is completing the formation of its strike force on the border with Ukraine, which together with special-operations units will form the base for the Kremlin's invasion fist." (UNIAN : 6 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It is not only Gen. Muzhenko that is raising the red flag of Putin's imminent attempt to invade Ukraine.

As reported by Will Stewart,

"A famed woman tank commander fighting for pro-Vladimir Putin rebels has revealed Russia’s secret plan to place 100,000 ground troops inside Ukraine in just four hours after she defected to the country.
...
Svetlana Dryuk , 40, says she has handed Kiev details of Russian battle plans for a “full-scale invasion” of  Ukraine." (Express : 4 March, 2019) (my emphasis)  

Putin has, however, to weigh the cost to Russia of any invasion of Ukraine against the stand of the UK, NATO, and the US, to assist Ukraine in such an eventuality.

Recall that in November of 2018, Luke Hawker reported that,

"THE UK will expand its military presence in the Ukraine as tensions increase with Russia, the Defence Secretary will announce today. Britain will be sending additional troops and a Royal Navy ship into eastern Europe “as long as Ukraine faces Russian hostilities”." (Express : 21 November, 2018) (my emphasis)

Recall also that in 2015, a year after the Maidan revolution that overthrew Yanukovich, the BBC reported that,

"Nato warships have begun military training exercises in the Black Sea, in international waters off the coast of Bulgaria.

The mission is aimed at reassuring its members in Eastern Europe in the face of Russia's increasingly unpredictable behaviour. " (BBC : 11 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

And today, as reported by UKRINFORM,

"A group of NATO ships will enter the Black Sea in a few days to conduct exercises as part of the build-up of the presence of the Alliance forces in the region.
...
"The Allies clearly stated that Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine are unacceptable, as well as the annexation of Crimea, the continuation of attempts to destabilize Ukraine by the presence in Donbas, and the illegal capture of Ukrainian ships and sailors," [NATO Secretary General Jens] Stoltenberg (right) said. (UKRINFORM : 7 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

In light of these NATO exercises, Ciaran McGrath reports that,

"RUSSIA has issued an ominous threat after NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg revealed plans to beef up its military presence in the Black Sea - warning such a move had the potential to aggravate still further simmering tensions in the region." (Express : 15 February, 2019) (my emphasis),

 whilst at the same time, [Russia's] Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko is being somewhat more conciliatory, stating that,

"The Black Sea has always been the sea of cooperation, even taking into account certain conflicts." (ibid Ciaran McGrath)

This 'conciliatory stance of Alexander Grushko could also be due to the fact that, as reported by Cristina Maza (right), Mark Simakovsky argues that,

“I think the Kerch Strait incident showcased not only the continued threat to Ukraine but also the deficiencies of the Ukrainian coast guard and Navy in terms of their capabilities,” Mark Simakovsky, an expert on Russia and NATO at the D.C.-based Atlantic Council, told Newsweek.
...
“So this is an ongoing issue...The U.S. can and should continue to provide defense assistance, and actually accelerate defense assistance, to Ukraine and broaden it beyond the focus on anti-armor and anti-air capabilities and counter battery radar." (Newsweek : 6 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

It could also be due to the fact that, as reported by Bill McLoughlin,


"US Army General Curtis Saparrotti (left) revealed to Congress that there had been “numerous ceasefire violations” [in Ukraine] by Russia. In light of that, General Scaparrotti revealed that he had requested two addition naval destroyers in order to “remain dominant in the maritime domain” ahead of Russia." (Express : 7 March, 2019) (my emphasis)

We should, however, be mindful of Putin's constant 'nuclear' sabre rattling.

As recently reported by Hollie McKay,

"Putin’s speech [last month (Feb. 2019)] to the Federal Assembly indeed “included some serious saber-rattling about Russia’s intentions to field new weaponry –  including nuclear-powered cruise missiles, nuclear-powered unmanned submarines and hypersonic ballistic missiles to name a few.” (Fox News : 21 February, 2019) (my emphasis)

Will Putin's 'itchy' nuclear finger unleash the unthinkable?

(to be continued)