Will Zelensky make unacceptable concessions to Putin?

In my blog entry of  (28 August 2019) wrote that,

"But can Zelensky either :-

• ignore Bolton's caution about 'rushing into action' when dealing with Putin about his war with Ukraine in the Donbas and his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea or
• ignore Macron's steamrollering towards a  Normandy Format meeting with Putin because of the expanding economic links between French and Russian businessmen or
• ignore Merkel steamrollering the completion of Nord Stream 2 between Germany and Putin?"

Let us also remind ourselves that,

"...Merkel and Macron are now of the opinion that,

• the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, 
• disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Vladimir Socor :Ukrinform, April 12, 13)"

Vladimir Soldatkin (right) now informs us that,

"Russia is ready to take part in a four-way summit in Paris to try to breathe life into the stalled Ukrainian peace process but has strict preconditions for such a meeting, a senior Kremlin aide said on Friday." (Reuters : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

The strict preconditions that Putin has set fort for this Normandy Format meeting are :-

• The rival armed forces in eastern Ukraine should be separated on either side of the line of contact
• The wording on a special status for the Donbass region should be agreed, and
• There must be a preliminary agreement on what the summit’s conclusions should be. (ibid Soldatkin) (my emphasis)

Leonid Kuchma (left), Zelensky's envoy for peace talks with Russia-backed separatists in the Donbas,

"is now expressing alarm that,"... the leaders of France and Germany [Macron and Merkel] will push Ukraine to make unacceptable concessions to Russia.

...

he is concerned that France and Germany, who are mediating the talks, will push Zelenskiy to make trade-offs, such as approving a plan for the separatists to hold local elections in the areas they control without any oversight by the Ukrainian government.

"I don't have a lot of hope," Kuchma said when asked about a much-anticipated meeting of Zelenskiy with the leaders of Russia, France and Germany. "Zelenskiy will have a very hard time — it will be one against three people." (VOA News (Associated Press) : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, addressing the Yalta European Strategy (YES) forum (13 Sept. 2019), Zelensky,

• warned the West against lifting sanctions on Russia as France pushes for rapprochement with Moscow.
• said that he had a "feeling" that Russian President Vladimir Putin was ready to improve ties with Ukraine.... That feeling was based "on many things," he said. "From our (phone) calls to the political situation in the world on the whole."
• said that he would push for the return of Crimea but admitted it would be "the most complicated" issue. (CNA : 13 September 2019) (my emphasis)

As I wrote on 31 August,

"ALL BETS ARE NOW OFF!!"

 Zelensky statements at the YES forum seems to indicate that he is amenable to :- 

• accepting Putin's preconditions for a soon-to-be Normandy Format meeting (cf Vladimir Soldatkin above), 
•  accepting Macron and Merkel's opinion that (i) the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, (ii) disarmament of local proxy forces and (iii) restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, are merely  aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to the holding of elections in the occupied Donbas,

and all of this based on his "feeling" that Russian President Vladimir Putin was ready to improve ties with Ukraine.

  

And whilst,

"On Thursday, the European Union extended by six months sanctions against Russian and Ukrainian officials while economic penalties were extended in June."(ibid CNA),

it is also reported that,

"French President Emmanuel Macron has in recent weeks pushed for a review of ties with Russia, indicating that more sanctions against Moscow were not in France's interests. (ibid CNA)

And let us not forget Merkel and her Nord Stream2 project.

As reported by Brian Parkin and Vanessa Dezem, 

"Germany is confident that hitches threatening the Russian-led Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline will be resolved to allow completion of the project on time this year.

...

Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government is becoming more vocal in its support for the project after years of parrying queries over its stance toward importing more Russian gas." (Bloomberg : 12 September 2019) (my emphasis)

So will Zelensky, as Kuchma warns, make unacceptable concessions to Putin at the forthcoming Normandy Format meeting?

(to be continued)

Zelenskiy will be walking a political tightrope at the next Normandy Format meeting

Negotiations for the exchange of prisoners between Ukraine and Putin has been going on for many years, long before Zelenskiy took office as the President of Ukraine.

As Henry Foy, Roman Olearchyk and Michael Peel report,

"While talks over a prisoner swap were first initiated years ago, discussions gained momentum after Mr Zelensky was elected president of Ukraine in April and vowed to initiate fresh peace talks with Moscow. Russian president Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that a swap would take place soon, describing it as “something of a compass [for relations with Kiev].”
" (Financial Times : September 7 2019) (my emphasis)

And yesterday,

"Russia and Ukraine exchanged 70 prisoners on Saturday after months of intense negotiations .." (ibid Henry Foy, Roman Olearchyk and Michael Peel)

Many, including Trump, are seeing this exchange as,

"Very good news, perhaps a first giant step to peace. Congratulations to both countries!" Trump said on Twitter." (RFERL : 7 Sept. 2019) (my emphasis)

Similarly,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the prisoner exchange was a "hopeful sign."

EU foreign-policy chief Federica Mogherini welcomed the release and called on both sides to "build on this momentum."

France said the swap showed improved trust and will on both sides to resume dialogue." (ibid RFERL)                Merkel                         Mogherini                     Macron                             

 

Let it also be noted that,

"Foreign and defence ministers from France and Russia are set to meet in Moscow on Monday, the first such meeting since 2014." (Michael Peel and Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : 8 September, 2019) (my emphasis)

But amidst the euphoria over this prisoner exchange,

"Dutch Foreign Minister Stef Blok said after the exchange on September 7 that the Netherlands had asked Ukraine "several times and at the very highest level" not to hand Tsemakh (right) over to Russia, according to AFP. He "regretted" the decision, he added. 

Forty members of the European Parliament this week had urged Ukraine not to include him in any exchange, calling him a "key suspect." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

However,

"The Ukrainian president [Zelenskiy] said Tsemakh had been handed over after his questioning for several hours by a team from the Dutch-led Joint Investigation Team (JIT) that has already indicted four individuals for their alleged roles in the MH17 tragedy over separatist-held territory of eastern Ukraine." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis) cf also:

Let us also recall that, as David Brennan (right) reports,

"A senior Russian official has praised President Donald Trump's decision to delay $250 million in military funding to Ukraine, where government forces are battling a Russian-backed insurgency in the east of the country." (Newsweek : 30 August 2019) (my emphasis)

It now transpires that this delay of military funding to Ukraine is even more significant.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (Friday 6 Sept. 2019),

"According to the Washington Post tonight, Trump is also witholding those millions of dollars for Ukraine for another very specific purpose. Quote, "Mr. Trump has suspended the delivery of $250 million in US military aid to Ukraine, a country still fighting Russia in its eastern provinces. Some suspect that Mr Trump is again catering to Mr. Putin, who is dedicated to undermining Ukrainian democracy.

But we are reliably told that the president has a second, and more venal, agenda. He is attempting to force the new leader of Ukraine to intervene in the 2020 US presidential elections by launching an investigation into the leading presidential candidate, Joe Biden. .. Mr. Trump is not just soliciting Ukraine's help with his presidential campaign; he is using US military aid the country desperately needs in an attempt to extort it .." (MSNBC : 7 Sept., 2019) (my emphasis)

No doubt, in view of this prisoner exchange, Merkel and Macron will now be ramping up their call for a Normandy Format meeting to take place as soon as possible.

And in light of the recent prisoner exchange Ukraine's President Zelensky will, like Macron and Merkel, also be clamouring for a Normandy format meeting to try and end Putin's war with Ukraine.

But, and it is a big BUT, will Putin ever agree to relinquishing his hold over the Donbas or returning Crimea back to Ukraine?

Will Putin, in the words of Kurt Volker, US Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations,

"Hope it [the prisoner exchange] builds momentum for further prisoner exchanges, renewed ceasefire, and progress toward full Minsk [II] implementation," Volker said on Twitter." (7 Sept 2019) (my emphasis)


Let recall that in April of this year, just prior to Ukraine's presidential elections, Poroshenko met with Merkel and Macron.


As Vladimir Socor (right) subsequently reported,

" ...Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020).

Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that :-

• (1) the withdrawal of Russian forces,
• (2) disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• (3) restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions [as laid out in the Minsk II protocols]  to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk." (Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April 2019) (my emphasis)

Zelenskiy will now be walking a political tightrope at the forthcoming Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Merkel, Macron, and himself.

Will he, like Merkel and Macron, also view those critical points in the Minsk II agreement (cf (1), (2), and (3) above) as mere "aspirations", to the delight of Putin?

(to be continued)

Zelenskiy is discovering that in politics, "Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction".

In my last blog entry I (28 August 2019) wrote that,

"But can Zelensky either :-

• ignore Bolton's caution about 'rushing into action' when dealing with Putin about his war with Ukraine in the Donbas and his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea or
• ignore Macron's steamrollering towards a  Normandy Format meeting with Putin because of the expanding economic links between French and Russian businessmen or
• ignore Merkel steamrollering the completion of Nord Stream 2 between Germany and Putin?

These are the choices confronting Zelensky.

But what could determine which choice Zelensky chooses is the prospect of,

" ...  a meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy [that] could happen soon.

[According to Bolton], “We expect to have a chance for the two of them to talk in Poland,” he said.

Trump is expected to travel to Poland and Denmark from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3, the White House said last month." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : 27 August 2019) (my emphasis) (

Further, as Natasha Bertrand of Politico then reported, that,

"The Trump administration is slow-walking $250 million in military assistance to Ukraine, annoying lawmakers and advocates who argue the funding is critical to keeping Russia at bay.

But the delays come amid questions over Trump’s approach to Russia, after a weekend in which the president repeatedly seemed to downplay Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine and pushed for Russia to be reinstated into the Group of Seven, an annual gathering of the world’s largest advanced economies. " (Politico : 29 August 2019) (my emphasis)

ALL BETS ARE NOW OFF!!

As reported by MSNBC, Trump has used the spurious argument about the hurricane heading towards one of his golf courses to CANCEL his meetings in Poland and Denmark, and his expected meeting with President Zelenskiy.

  MSNBC 30 August 2019

As also reported by Kathryn Watson,

"President Trump has been consulting with his national security leadership team to decide the best use of Ukraine security aid to achieve and align with U.S. national security interests, according to a senior administration official. Congress has already approved roughly $250 million in such aid — aid meant largely to confront Russia — for the current fiscal year 2019, which ends September 30. It's that funding that could be in jeopardy." (CBS News : 30 Auguste 23019) (my emphasis)

Putin is cock-a-hoop with joy about the possibility that this US aid to Ukraine could now be cancelled.

As David Brennan (left) reports,

"A senior Russian official has praised President Donald Trump's decision to delay $250 million in military funding to Ukraine, where government forces are battling a Russian-backed insurgency in the east of the country." (Newsweek : 30 August 2019) (my emphasis)

This sudden delaying of military funding to Ukraine by Trump may also have something to do with the fact that Trump's re-election prospects are receding fast, and that his current  pro-Putin decisions may be a signal to Putin himself to ramp up his infiltration of the US electoral system so that he can be re-elected to the White House.

 MSNBC : 22 August 2019

And  coming close on the heels of these developments, it now emerges that Putin has decided to amass his Russian troops on the border with Georgia.

As reported by MSNBC (31 August 2019)

"Troops forming on Russian border area with Georgia ... we've seen this before ..."

As Evelyn Farkas (right) explains,

"This is a very dangerous situation and unfortunately... yet again ... I would say a G7 failure because they should have been talking about Ukraine and Georgia ... and all of the things that Russia's doing wrong, rather than have to discuss the possibility of re-allowing .. re-inviting Russia into the G7" (ibid MSNBC video above)

Ironically, U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton is correct in having stated that,

"...  there is no need for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to "rush" into any course of action regarding Russia’s involvement with separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.
...
"I don't suppose that the Europeans are going to have a solution that is readily apparent," he added in reference to the so-called Normandy format of negotiations aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict." (RFERL : 27 Aug 2019) (my emphasis)

But even John Bolton has now been trumped by Trump.

President Zelenskiy cannot afford to be seen to vacillate in light of the cancelled "possible" meeting between Trump and himself.

The path is now open for Merkel and Macron to force Zelenskiy to adopt their political agenda at the forthcoming Normany Format meeting with Putin. 

 

Zelenskiy is discovering that in politics, "Truth Is Stranger Than Fiction"

 (to be continued)

The pressure is now on Zelenskiy.

In my blog entry of 8 June, 2017, I wrote that,

"The scarlet thread of Maidan, that has wrapped Putin in sanctions, and that has wrapped Trump in the nightmare of his salacious cavortings in Russia being publicly revealed, as by his own 'denial' of those cavorting to James Comey, cannot be easily escaped from by either Putin nor Trump."

This is best illustrated by Trump recently coming to the defense of Putin, and exhorting the members of the the recent 2019 G7 summit in France to reinstate Putin so that the G7 can revert back to the G8.

Let us remind ourselves that Putin was kicked out of the G8 because of his invasion of, and annexation of, Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and his setting in motion his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

 MSNBC : 22 Aug 2019

Yet whilst the erstwhile President of France, Emmanuel Macron, supports maintaining the exclusion of Putin from the G7 he is, nonetheless, trying to steamroller the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, into holding a Normandy Format talks about ending the war between Putin and Ukraine.

As RFERL reports,

"French President Emmanuel Macron says the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France will hold talks next month aimed at ending the conflict in eastern Ukraine, as U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton announced he would visit Ukraine.

"We think that the conditions exist for a useful summit," Macron said at the end of a Group of Seven (G7) summit in the southwestern French coastal resort of Biarritz.2 (RFERL : 26 August 2019) (my emphasis)


U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton is not so sure that President Zelensky should rush into such talks with Putin.

As  RFERL reports,

"U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton (right) says there is no need for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to "rush" into any course of action regarding Russia’s involvement with separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.
...
"I don't suppose that the Europeans are going to have a solution that is readily apparent," he added in reference to the so-called Normandy format of negotiations aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict." (RFERL : 27 Aug 2019) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that,

"...Merkel and Macron are now of the opinion that,

• the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, 
• disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Vladimir Socor :Ukrinform, April 12, 13)"

Which rather underscores the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister's statement that,

"... the existing cooperation between Russia and Germany on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project is reminiscent of Nazi Germany's cooperation with the USSR before World War II, that's according to Deputy Foreign Minister Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk (left)" (UNIAN : 27 August 2019) (my emphasis)

President Zelensky now finds himself stuck between Macron, Merkel, Bolton, and his electoral promise to end the war with Putin that still rages in the Donbas.

But can Zelensky either :-

• ignore Bolton's caution about 'rushing into action' when dealing with Putin about his war with Ukraine in the Donbas and his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea or
• ignore Macron's steamrollering towards a  Normandy Format meeting with Putin because of the expanding economic links between French and Russian businessmen or
• ignore Merkel steamrollering the completion of Nord Stream 2 between Germany and Putin?

These are the choices confronting Zelensky.

But what could determine which choice Zelensky chooses is the prospect of,

" ...  a meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy [that] could happen soon.

[According to Bolton], “We expect to have a chance for the two of them to talk in Poland,” he said.

Trump is expected to travel to Poland and Denmark from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3, the White House said last month." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : 27 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Critically, if this meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy transpires it will be BEFORE the Normandy Format meeting being pushed by Macron (and Merkel?)!

Todd Prince (right) outlines the reason for Trump going to Poland and Denmark.

"U.S. President Donald Trump will fly to Europe later this month to pursue a goal his predecessors going back to John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan failed to achieve -- derailing a Kremlin-backed energy-export pipeline.

The Trump administration and the U.S. Congress are fighting to block the 9.5 billion-euro ($10.6 billion) Nord Stream 2 project amid fears it will make NATO allies and other European countries more reliant on Russian energy and damage Ukraine by depriving it of transit fees." (RFERL : 13 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Trump may have called for Putin to be re-admitted to the G7 group, but he faces an uphill political struggle as the 2020 US presidential race gains momentum.

How this will affect a Zelenskiy-Trump meeting now remains to be seen.

MSNBC : 26 August 2019

 


The pressure is now on Zelenskiy. 

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!

Natasha Bertrand of Politico has just reported that,

"The Trump administration is slow-walking $250 million in military assistance to Ukraine, annoying lawmakers and advocates who argue the funding is critical to keeping Russia at bay.

But the delays come amid questions over Trump’s approach to Russia, after a weekend in which the president repeatedly seemed to downplay Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine and pushed for Russia to be reinstated into the Group of Seven, an annual gathering of the world’s largest advanced economies. " (Politico : 29 August 2019) (my emphasis)

The pressure on Zelenskiy seems only to be increasing.

What can Zelensky, Merkel, and Macron propose to Putin that will end his war with Ukraine?

As was to be expected, Victor Mallet and Henry Foy report that,

" Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin have raised the possibility of a new round of negotiations to try to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine after five years of war.
...
“In close co-operation with President Zelensky and Chancellor [Angela] Merkel we will be considering the opportunity — it’s what we want — of a new summit in the Normandy format in the coming weeks if we can prepare the way,” Mr Macron said after welcoming Mr Putin." (Financial Times : 19 August 2019) (my emphasis)

But Macron is not having it all his own way.

Victor Mallet and Henry Foy continue that,

"The French president is risking criticism from human rights activists that he is welcoming Mr Putin at a time when the Russian government is persecuting its political opponents at home. But Mr Macron’s advisers say the aim is to make progress on Ukraine and other dangerous international conflicts in the run-up to the G7 summit of big democracies in Biarritz at the weekend." (ibid Mallet and Foy) (my emphasis)

Like Putin,

"Mr Macron also said he wanted to see the whole international order reshaped, hinting at an effort to bring Russia in from the cold in terms of its increasingly frosty relations with the west." (ibid Mallet and Foy) (my emphasis)

Holly Ellyatt (right) has, however, poured some cold water on the intentions of Macron. She argues that,

"However, no progress should be expected in resolving the Ukraine crisis - France does not have the diplomatic capital to get this process going on its own, and it is clear the so-called Normandy Format that also involves Germany is dead, with no meeting under its auspices in the last two years.” (CNBC : 19 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Holly Ellyatt further reports that,

"... Daragh McDowell, the principal Russia analysts at Eurasia Group, told CNBC on Monday.

“I wouldn’t envisage there will be any concessions on Ukraine at this point. I don’t think Putin will want to signal any readiness that he’s willing to back down. He doesn’t want to signal any weakness to Zelenksy.” (ibid Holly Ellyatt) (my emphasis)

It is also interesting to note that Daragh McDowell correctly identifies the 'Nord Steam 2 elephant in the room' of any "new summit in the Normandy format in the coming weeks”, as proposed by Macron, after he recently welcomed Mr Putin at the French presidential retreat of the Fort de Brégançon on the Mediterranean coast."  
 

Furthermore, as UNIAN reports,

" ... the meeting with Macron is evidence France is pursuing its own independent foreign policy, officials argue. Putin may see things differently, said Vladimir Frolov, a foreign-policy analyst in Moscow.
...
Putin is unlikely to agree to much on Ukraine, where the stalemate continues despite Zelensky's calls for a new push for peace, said Frolov." (UNIAN : 19 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Frolov also states that,

"Putin will be focusing on Trump in the dialogue with Macron, whom he looks down on as an upstart," Frolov said. "[..] Trump is more important [to Putin] than Macron." (ibid UNIAN above) (my emphasis)

And whilst Macron is trying to resuscitate a Normandy format meeting with Putin, UNIAN also reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on August 19 mounted 11 attacks on Ukrainian Army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as wounded in action.

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation and its mercenaries violated the ceasefire 11 times on August 19..." (UNIAN : 20 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin does, with impunity, command his Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas to consolidate his bargaining position by them simply walking roughshod over any ceasefire agreement.

Putin uses their attacks on Ukraine's soldiers as a political bargaining chip to essentially elicit concessions in his favour, concessions which are best exemplified by Macron,

"... hinting at an effort to bring Russia in from the cold in terms of its increasingly frosty relations with the west." (ibid Mallet and Foy) (my emphasis)

As Frolov so succinctly put it,

"It's a no-lose visit for Putin [to France], it completely eliminates the idea that he was isolated," said Frolov." (ibid UNIAN 19 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's President Zelensky may be, like Macron, clamouring for a Normandy format meeting to try and end Putin's war with Ukraine and, with it, end those pesky EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' but, and it is a big BUT, will Putin ever agree to relinquishing his hold over the Donbas or returning Crimea back to Ukraine?

With this in mind, one can safely say that the Minsk2 protocols (see attached Appendix) are dead in the water.

So the question is,

"What will Zelensky, Macron, and Merkel propose at a new Normandy format meeting that will meet Putin's demands and end his war with Ukraine?"

(to be continued)

APPENDIX : MINSK2 PROTOCOLS

Full text of the Minsk2 agreement: (Wiki)

    1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment  
        as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.

    2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on
        minimum 50  kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70
        kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S,
       Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
        for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
        for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in
         accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
        The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the
        ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
        This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
 
    3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided
       from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
    4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with
       the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts
       of  Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
       Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved
        by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the
       law  "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in
       the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
    5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation
       to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
    6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This
        process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
    7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international
        mechanism.
    8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as
        payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax
        payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
        With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the
        conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

    9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on
       the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts
       of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on
       the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular
       districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine
         under  OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
 
    11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of
          which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,
          agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of
          particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached
         footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
    12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and
          Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of
         particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be
         held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
    13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the
          implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral
         Contact Group.

 (The high-lighted points (2, 9, and 10) are what are now regarded by Merkel and Macron as mere aspirations)

Added to which, we have Putin showering the Donbas with Russian passports for the Ukrainian residents under the occupation of his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies.

Zelenskiy will be facing his greatest test at the next Normany Four meeting

As predicted, Putin is fast ramping up his war with Ukraine as the anti-Putin marches in Moscow begin to swell.

As reported by Maria Tsvetkova and Gleb Stolyarov,

"Tens of thousands of Russians staged what a monitoring group called the country’s biggest political protest for eight years on Saturday, defying a crackdown to demand free elections to Moscow’s city legislature.
......
A month of demonstrations over elections for the Moscow city legislature have turned into the biggest sustained protest movement in Russia since 2011-2013, when protesters took to the streets against perceived electoral fraud." (Reuters : 9 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Whilst Putin was severely cracking down on protestors in Moscow and St. Petersburg, UNIAN reports that,

"Armed formations of the Russian Federation and Russian mercenaries mounted 13 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, on Saturday, August 10, using proscribed weapons.

"The enemy was shelling our units' positions, using 82mm mortars, which are banned under the Minsk agreements, as well as grenade launchers of various systems, large-caliber machine-guns, and rifles," the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said on Facebook in a morning update on August 11." (UNIAN : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

And to further show Zelenskiy exactly who is boss,

"Ukraine has protested to Russia after a leather-clad President Vladimir Putin visited the annexed Crimean peninsula to attend a bikers' festival.

Its foreign ministry described Saturday's visit as a "blatant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty".

Ukraine said attempts by Moscow and its media to present such visits as routine were "pathetic". (BBC: 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

This escalation by Putin of his war with Ukraine has led to a flurry of diplomatic activity.

UNIAN reports that,

"Representatives of the United States [Kurt Volker (left)], Germany, France plan to soon hold consultations on the Normandy format, involving Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia." (UNIAN : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

What is disconcerting is that,

"President of France Emmanuel Macron assured Volodymyr Zelensky he would push the issue related to death of four Marines in Normandy group meetings. The issue will be discussed during the meeting between Macron and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on August 19

Macron will meet the President of the Russian Federation on the south of the country in Fort de Brégançon castle in French Riviera. This castle is the French presidents’ summer residence" (112 International :7 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in April of this year, just prior to Ukraine's presidential elections, Poroshenko met with Merkel and Macron.


As Vladimir Socor (left) subsequently reported,

" ...Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020).

Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that :-

• (1) the withdrawal of Russian forces,
• (2) disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• (3) restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk.

According to Mr. Poroshenko, the French president (Emmanuel Macron) regards Ukraine’s presidential election as “opening a window of opportunity” for the Minsk and Normandy processes to advance along those lines." (Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April 2019) (my emphasis)

What is further disconcerting is that,

"U.S. President Donald Trump admits the possibility of receiving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House "very soon".

Also, Trump expressed confidence in Zelenskiy willing to take action on reaching peace in Donbas and to make a deal with Russia in this regard.

"He's going to make a deal with President Putin. […] He is a reasonable guy. He wants to see peace in Ukraine. I think he'll be coming very soon," he said. (UNIAN : 9 August 2019) (my emphasis)

As I wrote in an earlier blog entry (18 June 2019),

"Zelenskiy will be confronting Putin, with Merkel and Macron ostensibly supporting him whilst they are, in effect, giving Putin exactly what he wants viz. his Russian soldiers and proxies in absolute control of the Donbas whilst elections there are held.

If Zelenskiy should be wary of the hidden agenda of Putin and Macron as regards the implementation of the Minsk2 agreements, he should be even more wary of his upcoming meeting with Manchurian Candidate Donald Trump, the current US president who owes his White House position to Putin." (blog entry)

How, now, can Trump be so sure that Zelenskiy will make a deal with Putin, especially in light of Putin's recent escalation of his war with Ukraine?

The pressure on Zelenskiy is mounting.

Merkel, and in particular Macron, want to get rid of "the monkey of Putin's war with Ukraine" from off their back as the EU lurches towards an economic downturn.

As Wolfgang Münchau (right) reports,

"The EU has only recently emerged from a decade-long crisis and is now facing an economic downturn, a global currency war, a technology shock in the car sector, possibly a no-deal Brexit and an Italian government crisis.
...
The EU is at risk of a vicious circle during the next downturn or financial crisis. It would then become rational for voters and political parties to look at national alternatives to European integration." (Financial Times : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin, similarly, is facing a deepening economic crisis of his own because of his total dependency on the price of oil as a means of cauterizing the swell of demonstrations that are mounting against him and his 'siloviki'.

As reported by Stephanie Kelly (left),

"Oil falls 3% as trade war concerns hit demand outlook

Global oil benchmark Brent futures fell more than 3% on Monday on global growth concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump last week threatened China with more tariffs, which could limit crude demand from the world’s two biggest buyers." (Reuters : 5 August 2019) (my emphasis)

This fall in the price of oil, and the economic downturn that is facing the EU, will be the 'elephants in the room' at the upcoming Normandy format meeting between  Zelenskiy, Putin, Merkel, and Macron.

It will be the 'elephants in the room' that will force the emasculation of the Minsk2 protocols by Macron and Merkel in favour of Putin and against the people of Ukraine.

Zelenskiy will be facing his greatest test at the next Normany Four meeting to discuss the Minsk2 proposals.

(to be continued)

APPENDIX : MINSK2 AGREEMENT

Full text of the Minsk2 agreement: (Wiki)

    1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment  
        as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.

    2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on
        minimum 50  kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70
        kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S,
       Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
        for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
        for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in
         accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
        The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the
        ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
        This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
 
    3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided
       from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
    4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with
       the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts
       of  Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
       Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved
        by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the
       law  "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in
       the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
    5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation
       to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
    6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This
        process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
    7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international
        mechanism.
    8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as
        payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax
        payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
        With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the
        conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

    9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on
       the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts
       of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on
       the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular
       districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine
         under  OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
 
    11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of
          which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,
          agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of
          particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached
         footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
    12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and
          Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of
         particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be
         held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
    13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the
          implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral
         Contact Group.

 (The high-lighted points (2, 9, and 10) are what are now regarded by Merkel and Macron as mere aspirations)

Added to which, we have Putin showering the Donbas with Russian passports for the Ukrainian residents under the occupation of his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies.