What is Putin really fearful about that he will ignite World War 3?

On 25 November 2014, the year that Putin illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, I wrote that,

"In my last blog entry I stated that,

"It is also about time that Merkel ends the rather suspicious 'special' relationship that she has with Putin. Those tete-a-tete's, those private conversations that she has with Putin, sometimes until 1.30am in the morning, rather belies her 'incredulity' about his 'open' invasion of eastern Ukraine and his behaviour on the international stage."

What is now emerging, as reported in RT (November 23, 2014) is that Germany's Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (right), has stated in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine that, 

• he is against Ukraine joining NATO
• 
  he does not believe it is realistic for Ukraine to join the European Union in the foreseeable future, as the economic and political modernization of Ukraine is a “project for a few generations.”  (my emphasis)
• it is possible for NATO to have a partnership with Ukraine, but not membership

Steinmeier could NOT have made these statements WITHOUT the blessing of Merkel. Could this be what Merkel and Putin agreed upon when they had their private 4-hour tete a tete in Brisbane? (blog)" (blog 25/11/2014)

 

Let us also recall that in 2014, in a speech at the 50th Munich Security Conference, Germany's President Joachim Gauck said that,

 

"I have to admit that while there are genuine pacifists in Germany, there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness or a desire to disengage from the world. In the words of the historian Heinrich August Winkler, this is an attitude that grants Germany a questionable "right to look the other way, which other Western democracies" cannot claim for themselves. Restraint can thus be taken too far if people start making special rules for themselves. Whenever that happens, I will criticise it." (Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis) (blog entry 30/11/2014)

Guack was arguing that the 'Ostpolitik' instituted by the SPD member Willy Brandt (right), when he was Chancellor of Germany during the 1970's, and that is still fervently clung to by Merkel and the SDP member Steinmeier, has now become defunct.

 
The world has changed, he argues, and Germany must,

" ..... not turn a blind eye, not run from threats, but instead stand firm, not forget, neglect or betray universal values, but instead uphold these values together with our friends and partners. Let us be seen to be living by them, let us defend them." (ibid  Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward to today and it is against this German political backdrop that Putin's current demands about Ukraine never being able to allow to join NATO has to be viewed. 

 

Let us also remind ourselves that recently, as reported by Laurenz Gehrke,

 

"Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (left) has been nominated to join the board of directors at Gazprom, the state-owned Russian energy company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline." (Politico : 4 February 2022) (my emphasis) 

 

And against this backdrop, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be meeting today (15 Feb 2022) with Putin to try and prevent him from invading Ukraine.

As reported by Michael Fitzpatrick,

"Germany's Scholtz (right) was firm in his resolve to support Ukraine and hit Russia "immediately" with punishing sanctions should Moscow invade.

....
Scholz has warned Russia it should "not underestimate our unity and determination" but also hedged against unequivocally backing Biden's pledge to "bring an end" to Russia's new Nord Stream 2 gas link to Germany." (Radio France Internationale : 14 February 2022) (my emphasis)

But as Germany's former President, Joachim Gauck, stated in 2014,

" ... there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness or a desire to disengage from the world. In the words of the historian Heinrich August Winkler, this is an attitude that grants Germany a questionable "right to look the other way, which other Western democracies" cannot claim for themselves" (ibid President Joachim Gauck)

German Chancellor Scholz's meeting with Putin today will call on him for restraint.

However, in the words of  Joachim Gauck, "Restraint can thus be taken too far if people start making special rules for themselves"(ibid Guack)

And Scholtz's reluctance to "bring an end" to Russia's Nord Stream2 gas link to Germany exemplifies him "making questionable special rules" behind the 1970's "Ostpolitik" shield of Willy Brandt that has long become defunct. (cf: Joachim Glauck)

As German Chancellor Scholtz meets today with Putin, Dan Sabbagh and Jessica Elgot (left) report that,

"Russia is sending thousands more troops to its border with Ukraine in a sign that Vladimir Putin could extend the crisis for weeks, as Boris Johnson warned the situation had become “very, very dangerous”.

British officials estimate that a further 14 Russian battalions are heading towards Ukraine, each numbering about 800 troops, on top of the 100 battalions massed on the borders – a force already believed capable of launching an invasion." (The Guardian : 14 February 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Wall Street Journal: 14 Feb 2022) (video: Tim Lister, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Paul P. Murphy:CNN : 15 February 2022)

As also reported by Alix Culbertson,

"Ms Truss (UK Foreign Secretary) told Sky News: "If we saw an invasion into Ukraine, there would be severe costs in terms of a long-running conflict, we could see the undermining of security more broadly in Europe and could see other aggressors around the world see it as an opportunity to expand their ambitions too.

"This is a very dangerous moment for the world." (Sky News (video below) : 15 february 2022) (my emphasis) 

What is disconcerting is that Putin could extend this crisis for weeks (Dan Sabbagh and Jessica Elgot), if not months.

 As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov and Yuras Karmanau (Associated Press),

"After weeks of rising tensions over Ukraine, the tenor changed Monday, when Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left) indicated that Russia was ready to keep talking about the security grievances that have led to the crisis. In what could be another sign that the Kremlin would like to lower the temperature, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Tuesday that some units participating in military exercises would begin returning to their bases."

 

Dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's suggestion to Putin that they should "keep talking about the security grievances that have led to the crisis" viz. the rollback of NATO in the east and, in particular stopping Ukraine from joining NATO, is a mantra that has been chanted as early as 2014 by Germany's then Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. (see above)

So the critical question is:

"Why has Putin waited from 2014 until now to throw everything his military forces have at their disposal (including the proverbial kitchen sink) along Ukraine's border?"

What is Putin really fearful about that he will ignite World War 3?

 

(to be continued)

Putin's lunacy now stands exposed for the whole world to see.

 In my last blog entry I wrote,

"Whither, therefore, the Minsk2 proposals?

To assume that 'raising the Minsk2 protocols from the dead' can serve to hold back Putin's 'Dogs of War', who are now straining at the leash to invade Ukraine, is tantamount to believing that 'pigs can fly'! " (blog entry 10 February 2022)

As David M. Herszenhorn (right) now reports,

"The heightened alarm came a day after another round of talks between representatives of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia — in the so-called Normandy format — once again yielded no progress in implementing the Minsk peace accords, which are intended to end the existing conflict in eastern Ukraine.
.....
Putin, following a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Kremlin on Monday night, had personally demanded that the Ukrainian government talk directly with [ his proxies in the Donbas] the separatists. 

“It won’t work otherwise,” Putin said. 

“They do not want to talk directly with [MY] representatives of Donbass. It is written directly in Point 12, in Point 9, Point 11 that such and such issues will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of these territories,” Putin said. “Discuss and agree with them. How else can you work then? Impossible." (Politico : 11 February 2022) (my emphasis)

At the same time, using NATO as his excuse, Putin is now threatening to unleash a nuclear war.

Youtube : Bulletin of Atomic Scientists : 11 February 2022

Let us recall, as John Hall reported on 2 April 2015, that,

"Vladimir Putin is planning to exploit the threat of nuclear war to force Nato out of countries bordering Russia, it has been claimed.

A secret meeting between intelligence figures in Moscow and Washington reportedly revealed Putin will consider any attempt to return the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine as declaration of war and will take any necessary step - including using nuclear weapons - to retain control of the region." (MailOnline : 2 April, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf: blog entry 2 August 2015)

Putin is now using that same 'nuclear' political bludgeon except that today, his finger is hovering over the button that will release his nuclear option.

As Mikhail Khordokovsky recently remarked,

"He (Putin) is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Many countries are now urging their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, as the 'red lights are flashing' that Putin's 'Dogs of War', currently in Belarus, may at any minute launch a 'blitzkrieg' against Kiev.

As reported by Politico,

"In addition to the U.S., the United Kingdom, Latvia, Denmark, Israel, Estonia, Norway, Japan and South Korea all directed their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible." (ibid David M. Herszenhorn) (my emphasis)

Youtube : BBC News : 11 Feb 2022

More disconcerting, as reported by RFE/RL,

"Russia says six warships from its navy are heading to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean to take part in military maneuvers amid heightened tensions with the West over Moscow's troop buildup on its border with Ukraine, which has raised fears of a possible invasion of the former Soviet republic.." (RFE/RL : 9 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 8 February 2022 

 As also reported by Amy Mackinnon (left),

"As part of its exercises in the Black Sea, Moscow has declared large swaths of the sea around the Crimean peninsula and the Ukrainian port of Odessa unsafe for navigation during its drills next week, as well as the southern half of the Sea of Azov, the Ukrainian Naval Forces Command said in a post on Facebook on Thursday. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba condemned the move, describing it as a tactic of “hybrid warfare.” (Foreign Policy : 10 February 2022) (my emphasis)

These so-called Russian naval 'navigation drills' that will be taking place in an increasing overcrowded Black Sea ; should anything happen between e.g. a US or British warship and a Russian warship, this WOULD precipitate a dangerous escalation that could give Putin his raison d'être for pressing that nuclear button.

Putin's lunacy now stands exposed for the whole world to see.

(to be continued)

Putin is dangerously convinced of his own infallibility

Suddenly, throughout the diplomatic world of the EU and the US, the Minsk2 protocols, signed on 12 February 2015 by

• [Putin's proxies] Separatist's leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky
• Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
• Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
  

is being put forward as a "practical" framework for the prevention of Putin unleashing, with his 'Dogs of War' in full preparededness on Ukraine's border, his second invasion of Ukraine. (image: left to right:  Zakharchenko, Plotnitsky, Tagliavini, Kuchma, Zurabov)

Since 2015, Putin has treated the Minsk2 protocols with contempt.

What everyone seems to ignore is that nowhere in these protocols is Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine's Crimea, and its illegal incorporation into the Russian Federation, mentioned.

As reported by NBC News in 2014,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law Friday completing the annexation of Crimea. 

The ceremony at the Kremlin means Crimea has become part of the Russian Federation as two administrative districts, Crimea and the port city of Sevastopol.

Before signing the law, Putin hailed the incorporation of Crimea into Russian territory as a “remarkable event,” The Associated Press reported." (NBC News : 21 March 2014) (my emphasis)

(video: Youtube 27 Mar 2015)

 

 

Having raised Minsk2 with Putin as a way of 'defusing' the crisis on Ukraine's border that Putin himself has created, Macron then reported that, "Russian leader Vladimir Putin told him he would not further escalate the Ukraine crisis in their marathon talks at the Kremlin a day earlier." (Cumnock Chronicle : 8 February 2022) (my emphasis)

However, according the Putin's mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov,  “in the current situation, Moscow and Paris can’t be reaching any deals”. (ibid Cumnock Chronicle)

I am somewhat reminded of the  declaration made by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in his 30 September 1938 remarks in London concerning the Munich Agreement between himself and Hitler, and the subsequent Anglo-German Declaration.

Hitler had agreed that he "would NOT invade Poland"!

"Peace in our time", proclaimed Chamberlain, as he landed back in the UK.

Yet Hitler's subsequent invasion of Poland sparked off WW2.

And now in 2022, as Lauren Lewis and Will Stewart report,

"Russia has denied reports that Vladimir Putin agreed a deal on Ukraine with French President Emmanuel Macron during talks in Moscow yesterday despite Paris' claim he managed to exact concessions from the Kremlin.  
...
The denial comes amid fiery warnings from Moscow that a nuclear war could break out if Ukraine joins NATO and after Putin accused the West of 'complete disregard for our concerns' following the six-hour-long talks yesterday."  ( : Mail Online : 8 February 2022) (my emphasis) (video: Mail Online : 10 February 2022)

Whither, therefore, the Minsk2 proposals?

To assume that 'raising the Minsk2 protocols from the dead' can serve to hold back Putin's 'Dogs of War', who are now straining at the leash to invade Ukraine, is tantamount to believing that 'pigs can fly'! 

As Mikhail Khordokovsky recently remarked,

"He (Putin) is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Is Putin actually afraid of starting a war with Ukraine?

Whilst Emmanuel Macron meets with Putin in Moscow, over in the US, President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have thrown down the gauntlet to Putin.

As reported in the Independent,

"On his first trip to the White House as German Chancellor, Mr Scholz said Berlin and Washington “will be united” in their response to an incursion by Moscow, after the US president warned they would bring the £8.3bn [Nord Stream2] project “to an end” if Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border." (The Independent : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

 

 

Meanwhile, back in Moscow, Macron and Putin have thrown down the gauntlet to Biden and Scholz by emphasising that they had found points of "convergence" regarding the "security of Europe".

 

As reported by CNN,

 

"Macron said that he and Putin were able to find "points of convergence" over the crisis and that it was "up to us to agree, jointly, concrete and specific measures to stabilize the situation and to de-escalate tensions."
...
Putin, who had sharply critical words for NATO and Ukraine, suggested "further steps" were possible on the diplomatic front.
...
Despite the diplomatic overtures, Putin accused Ukraine of violating the rights of its Russian-speaking population .... (CNN : 8 February 2022) (my emphasis)

 

 

Similarly, as reported by France24,

"Putin said that a number of Macron’s ideas concerning security were realistic and that the two would talk again once Macron had travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukraine’s leadership." (France24 :7 February 2022) (my emphasis)

 

As also reported by Reuters on January 19 2022,

"French President Emmanuel Macron called on fellow members of the European Union on Wednesday to work together to draw up proposals for a new security deal with Russia in the coming weeks involving a "frank dialogue" with Moscow.

Speaking amid growing worries over a Russian military build-up at Ukraine's borders, Macron did not spell out what the "new stability and security order" he is seeking could entail, but said it must ensure Europe defends its interests.

"We will make sure that Europe makes its unique and strong voice heard," he told the European Parliament as he laid out France's priorities for its sixth-month EU presidency." (Reuters : 19 January 2022) (my emphasis)

These EU security proposals of Macron were first proposed by Macron in 2020, who envisaged an EU Defence Policy that would be parallel to the NATO security policy of Europe. 

Now as reported by Patrick Wintour  in 2020, Macron said that,

"Europe’s middle classes will only remain reconciled to the European Union if it becomes more integrated, with an effective defence policy, a larger budget and integrated capital markets" (The Guardian : 15 February 2020) (my emphasis)

At this time, when Angela Merkel was still Chancellor of Germany,

"Macron was speaking after two leading German politicians affirmed Germany needed to do more to respond to Macron’s offer of dialogue.

The [then] German foreign minister, Heiko Maas (right), said: “Germany is ready to get more involved, including militarily.” He called for the “construction of a European security and defence union as a strong, European pillar of Nato”. (ibid Patrick Wintour)

Of critical relevance to Macron's proposals for an 'independent' EU security policy is the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols (cf: Wikipedia).

These protocols, that were,

" ...brokered by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France, took place in Minsk. These produced a ‘package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements’ (‘Minsk-2’). This document, signed on 12 February 2015 by representatives from the OSCE, Russia, Ukraine, the DNR and LNR, has been the framework for subsequent attempts to end the war." (Duncan Allen : Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Since 2015, however, Minsk2 has been largely ignored by Putin. 

As Duncan Allen explains,

 

"... Minsk-2 supports mutually exclusive views of sovereignty: either Ukraine is sovereign (Ukraine’s interpretation), or it is not (Russia’s interpretation) – this is the ‘Minsk conundrum’. (ibid )

And yet ... and yet ...

At their press conference yesterday, BOTH Macron and Putin re-emphasised the implementation of Minsk2 to avoid Putin's second invasion of Ukraine, with Putin indirectly stressing that Ukraine is NOT a sovereign country as evidenced by his reiteration that his proxies in Ukraine's Donbas MUST be fully consulted about the future of Donbas.

 

France24 : 7 February 2022

Even more disconcerting, Putin reasserted that Ukraine's Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine since he illegally invaded and annexed it into the Russian Federation in 2014!.

The political 'backslapping' between them at yesterday's press conference was nothing more nor less than a public display of the "Putin-Macron mutual admiration society".

Putin is seemingly digging in his heels over continuing to threaten his second invasion of Ukraine and, as one of Putin's proxies in Ukraine's Donbas recently stated,

"Denis Pushilin (left), [Putin's proxy] head of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic, said there was a high likelihood of a war that would bring huge casualties, although it would be "madness" to embrace such a conflict.

"First of all we rely on ourselves, but we do not rule out that we will be forced to turn to Russia if Ukraine, with the support of Western countries, passes a certain line," he told Reuters in an interview in his fortified office." (Anton Zverev: (MSN) Reuters:7 February 2022) (my emphasis)

There may, however, be other reasons why Putin is threatening to invade Ukraine and, in the process, engulfing Europe in the conflagration that will follow.

As reported by Sky News,

"Exiled Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky claims Vladimir Putin is 'afraid of starting a war with Ukraine'

....
"At present the opposition in Russia has been reduced to a bare minimum - by way of arrests, pressure on their families etc."But it also means that opposition sentiments have gone deeper underground. This means that Putin doesn't really know what society's reaction is going to be to this or that action.
 

"It is one of the reasons why he is in fact afraid of starting a war with Ukraine.
...

"He is not confident that Russian society would support such a war - and I'm sure that Russian people will not support it. (cf: Niko Vorobyov: Aljazeera: 3 February 2022)

...
"This is a serious challenge for Putin - it is something that he is afraid of tackling.
 

And [Khodorkovsky] warned that if in the past Mr Putin might have been a man who would listen to others, or exercise some caution, "this has changed".

He added: "He is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 6 Feb 2022

 So is Putin actually afraid of starting a war with Ukraine?

 (to be continued)

Putin is now at the edge of lashing out dangerously

Let us recall that in my blog entry (11 August 2016) I wrote that,

"As inevitably as the sun will rise to-morrow morning, Putin is repeating his pretext for escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine that he did when he was head of the FSB in 1999, and oversaw the Moscow apartment bombings that he used as a causus belli to start his war with Chechnya.

Let us for a moment remind ourselves that those 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow led to the deaths of 293, and injured more than 1000 people, whilst at the same time spreading a wave of fear across the country. (cf Wikipedia)

There is enough evidence that exposes the fact that these bombings were staged by the then FSB under Putin. (cf Wikipedia)

This is best illustrated by the failed Ryazan bombing attempt by the FSB.

Ryazan 1999 : Part1 and Part2

And now (2016) we have Putin attempting to use the very same FSB tactic to provoke a full scale war with Ukraine. " (blog : 11 August 2016)  (Full Video : Youtube 23 April 2013)

Fast forward to 2022 and Julian Borger, Shaun Walker, and Dan Sabbagh report that,

"US officials claim they have evidence of a Russian plan to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for an invasion.

The alleged plot would involve using corpses, footage of blown-up buildings, fake Ukrainian military hardware, Turkish-made drones and actors playing the part of Russian-speaking mourners.
.....
The Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, said the video would have purported to show a Ukrainian attack on Russian territory or Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine and would be “very graphic”. He added that the US believed that the plan had the backing of the Kremlin." (The Guardian : 3 February 2020) (my emphasis) (cf also : Aljazeera : BBC News : Financial Times : Reuters :  amongst others)  

MSNBC : 3 February 2020

It cannot be a coincidence that Putin's modus operandi in 1999 to stoke up Russian hysteria against the Chechen people comes straight out of the playbook of 'maskirovka' (Wikipedia), the Russian doctrine that covers a broad range of measures for military deception, from camouflage to denial and deception.

When viewed against the evidence of the FSB-orchestrated plan to blow up Russian citizens in Ryazan in 1999,  the reports of many (cf. Aljazeera : BBC News : Financial Times : Reuters) that Putin is possibly planning to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for his 2nd invasion of Ukraine is not so far fetched as it may seem.

Just as in 1999, when the people of Ryazan did not fall for the crude and deceptive explanations about the attempted bombing planned by Putin's FSB, today there is the small beginning of an anti-war movement in Saint Petersburg (formerly Leningrad).

As reported by Niko Vorobyov (left),

"In Russia, where protests are tightly restricted, a small anti-war movement is growing as the Ukraine crisis rumbles on.
....
On Sunday, more than 100 prominent Russian activists, authors and academics signed an an open letter decrying the “party of war in the Russian leadership” and state media.
....
“Russia does not need war with Ukraine or the West,” the letter concludes. “No-one is threatening us, and no-one will attack us. Politics founded on the advancement of the idea of such a war is amoral, irresponsible, and criminal, and cannot be carried on in the name of the Russian people.” (Aljazeera : 3 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Jake Cordell (right) reports, Russian economic experts are warning that,

“Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy represents a potential double setback for the economy by risking the imposition of additional sanctions while further neglecting long-standing socio-economic problems,” said Scope Ratings analyst Levon Kameryan in a research note published Thursday.
.....
Central to those socio-economic problems is the living standards crisis that has beset the Russian economy in recent years. (Moscow Times : 21 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As the domestic economic problems of the Russian people continues to exact a heavy burden on their everyday lives, and Putin continues to paint himself into an ever tightening political corner, the eyes of the international community will turn towards those Russian 'siloviki' and kleptomaniac oligarchs who live under Putin's "krisha" or, as Howard Witt explains,

"As casually as business executives in Chicago might talk about the cost of fire insurance, businesspeople in Russia trade stories about the cost of their krisha or "roof," referring to mobsters extorting monthly protection payments." (Chicago Tribune : 24 November 1996) (my emphasis)

Is the 'cost' of Putin's 'krisha' now becoming potentially too high for his 'siloviki' and kleptomaniac oligarchs?

Is Putin now at the edge of lashing out dangerously?

(to be continued)

The past is now catching up with Germany

In the early 1990's, when Putin was an official in the St. Petersburg mayoral office of Anatoly Sobchak (left: Putin and Sobchack), a deal was struck between Putin and German businessmen and banks that,

"...involved the export of $100m worth of raw materials in
exchange for food for the citizens of St Petersburg. The materials were exported, but the food never arrived, as Marine Salye (bottom right), who was put in charge of a city council investigation into the deal, and who fastidiously kept the documents from that time, identified Putin's fingerprints all over it. This deal opened the floodgates for German businessmen to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". (cf. blog entry 7 November 2014) (cf. also: Maeve McClenaghan : Bureau of Investigative Journalism : 19 April 2012)

At the time of this deal Helmut Kohl (German CDU Leader) was then Chancellor of Germany and, in retrospect, this criminal deal of Putin served as the 'seed corn' that financed Putin's rise,

" ... through the ranks and being elected president in 2000, after serving in the role for several months following the resignation of Boris Yeltsin." (ibid Maeve McClenaghan) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to 2022 and, as Guy Chazan and Max Seddon (left) write,

"German officials say that the government is playing an important role in keeping diplomatic channels open with Russia. But critics say Berlin has failed to grasp the enormity of the threat Russia poses to Ukraine. They worry that Germany, which draws 55 per cent of its imported gas from Russia, cares more about the impact sanctions will have on its economy than about forming a united front against Moscow. Some Nato countries have even begun to doubt that Berlin is a reliable partner. (Financial Times : 31 January 2022) (my emphasis) 

DW News: 31 January 2022

They further write that,

"Nord Stream 2 epitomises the dilemma Germany faces. Its industry is hugely reliant on Russian gas, and will become even more so as the country phases out nuclear power and coal. “For years we have had a close mutual dependence,” says Markus Krebber, chief executive of German energy firm RWE. “We need Russian natural gas, and Russia needs foreign currency. We had tensions in the past, but the gas always came.”" (ibid Guy Chazan and Max Seddon) (my emphasis)

This dangerously 'blinkered' view of the 'Markus Krebbers' of Germany's political and business elites has also opened up the 'can of worms' of Germany's recent historical past. 

As  Guy Chazan and Max Seddon write,

"The arms issue also goes right to the heart of German guilt about the second world war. The prospect that Russian soldiers might again be killed by weapons from Germany is one many in Berlin view with horror.

But the argument about Germany’s war guilt enrages Ukrainians. They counter that it was Ukraine that bore the brunt of Wehrmacht and SS atrocities between 1941-44, suffering far more civilian casualties than Russia, and so has a much greater claim on German sympathy." (ibid Chazan and Seddon) (my emphasis) (below: German Death Squads in Ukraine during WW2)

Meanwhile, as reported by Al Jazeera,

"The United States and Russia have sparred over the Ukraine crisis at the UN Security Council, with Washington warning of a “horrific” war should Moscow decide to invade its neighbour and Russian diplomats playing down the threat of military conflict.

US ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield (left), told the council during a special open session on Monday that a Russian invasion of Ukraine would threaten global security." (Al Jazeera : 31 mJanuary 2022) (my emphasis) 

Youtube : DW News: 1 February 2022

As Putin threatens the global security of the world, and German politicians twist themselves into 'political pretzels' trying to justify themselves for not sending defensive weaponry to Ukraine, the fallout for Germany is that their past war against the Ukrainian people is now fast catching up with them.

(to be continued)

Irish fishermen, unlike Germany, are willing to confront Putin head on.

BBC News has just reported that,

"US President Joe Biden has warned there is a "distinct possibility" Russia might invade Ukraine next month, the White House says.
....
The US president made the comments in a telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on Thursday.
....

"President Biden said that there is a distinct possibility that the Russians could invade Ukraine in February," White House National Security Council spokesperson Emily Horne said." (BBC News :28 January 2022) (my emphasis)

A leading article in the Economist now warns that,

"A war in Ukraine could have global consequences
...
Human suffering, economic shock and a geopolitical realignment
....
No one can be sure of Mr Putin’s intentions. Even his own foreign minister seems to be kept guessing. But, if fighting is about to break out, the world needs to understand the stakes. (The Economist : 29 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Similarly,  Anthony Faiola (left) of the Washington Post writes that,

"An invasion of Ukraine could drive up global food prices and spark unrest far from the front lines.
....
Should peace not prevail, western-gazing Ukrainians would pay the highest price. But in a worst-case scenario, the cost of a major Russian invasion of Ukraine — one of the world’s largest grain exporters — could ripple across the globe, driving up already surging food prices and increasing the risk of social unrest well beyond Eastern Europe." (MSN (Washington Post) : 28 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Already this "unrest far from Ukraine" is taking place.

As reported by Simon Carswell,

"Irish fishing boats are planning to peacefully disrupt plans by the Russian navy to conduct military exercises off the coast of Cork next month.

Patrick Murphy, chief executive of the Irish South and West Fish Producers Organisation said that the area was very important for fishing and that they wanted to protect biodiversity and marine life." (The Irish Times : 25 January 2022) (my emphasis)

 As also reported by Rachel Maddow, a spokesperson of the Russian embassy in Ireland warned that,

"Any attempts to interfere with military exrcises would be [a] reckless and irresponsible act which could put in harms way both sailors and fishermen " (MSNBC : 28 January 2022)

Even more disconcerting, as reported by David Averre (right),

"An undersea fiberoptic cable which provides vital internet connection and communications links between mainland Norway and the Svalbard archipelago in the Arctic Ocean has mysteriously been put out of action.

The outage on the subsea communications cable, which is the northern most cable of its kind in the world, occurred on January 7 but was only revealed to the public yesterday by Space Norway, who owns and maintains the technology.  
....
Should the second cable fail before repairs are made, Svalbard's citizens and SvalSat will be effectively cut off from Norway.

It comes as Britain's newly appointed chief of the defence staff, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, warned that Russia may look to cripple such vital undersea communications wires supporting the UK." (Mail Online : 11 January 2022) (my emphasis) ( video: Rachel Maddow: MSNBC : 26 Jan 2022)

And against this backdrop of a war in Ukraine having global consequences , finally the real reasons underpinning Germany's adamant position in not supplying Ukraine with arms to defend itself against Putin's army has been internationally brought to light.

As reported by DW,

"Jessica Berlin (left), expert on security policy and geopolitics. She says: "Germany can no longer prioritize its economic interests over its international obligations." (DW : 27 January 2022) (my emphasis) (full video : DW : 27 Jan 2022)

Irish fishermen, unlike Germany, are willing to confront Putin head on.

(to be continued)

The "Putinversteher" mentality of Germany's political and economic elite towards Ukraine

 

The political world now anxiously waits as the frenzied diplomacy of the West continues to push against Putin's war manouvres that threatens to engulf Europe, and critical countries beyond Europe, in a conflagration that is simply unthinkable.

Putin is not only holding a gun to the head of Ukraine, he is also holding a gun to the universal law that the current borders of each country in the world is inviolable. 

No matter how you slice or dice it, this international law was trampled upon by Putin in 2014 when he invaded, and subsequently annexed into the Russian Federation, Ukraine's Crimea.

In the words of Professor John Blaxland (Australian National University) (right),

" A lot of grumblings amongst some of his erstwhile supporters who are starting to worry about him [Putin] maybe losing the plot here ...(Full Video: Youtube 24 January 2022) 

And yet ..... And yet .....

As reported by Patrick Wintour (left),

"Can the western alliance against Russia over its buildup of troops on the Ukrainian border hold together? It is a question that politicians and diplomats are increasingly grappling with amid fears that Germany and, to a lesser extent, France are in danger of dividing from the US and the UK, not only over how to respond to any future Russian act of aggression in Ukraine, but also in their assessment of the imminence of the threat. (The Guardian : Wednesday 26 January 2022) (my emphasis)

Now Germany is adamant that it will NOT supply Ukraine with defensive weaponry against the might of Putin's army which is waiting to ONCE AGAIN violate the borders of Ukraine.

This is the same Germany who,

"Germany is the world’s fourth largest exporter of weapons, selling state-of-the-art arms worth billions of dollars to countries with questionable human rights records such as Qatar and Saudi Arabia without batting an eye.

Yet Nato’s second largest country has turned a deaf ear to increasingly urgent requests from Ukraine for defensive weapons even though most other nations in the north Atlantic alliance are rushing material to the threatened eastern Europe country, which is braced for a possible attack from its powerful neighbour Russia. 

There is bewilderment – and criticism – from Ukraine and its allies over Germany’s stance to requests from Kiev for arms, but Berlin is standing firm, reports Erik Kirschbaum" (Erik Kirschbaum (right): The Independent : 26 January 2022) (my emphasis)

What, therefore, can we expect from Germany (... and France) when Putin unleashes his 'dogs of war'.

As further reported by Patrick Wintour,

"Although Merkel’s response to the invasion of Ukraine in 2014 was firm, Steinmeier (left), sure that the SPD understood Russia better than Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union party, went to Moscow and proposed an economic partnership with Russia. At the same time, three former chancellors of Germany – Helmut Schmidt, Gerhard Schröder and Helmut Kohl – all warned Merkel not to isolate Moscow. Within a week of the invasion, the chief executive of Siemens was in Moscow. As the diplomatic situation worsened, a group of senior German former officials and politicians sent an emotional letter calling for a return to the policy of detente." (ibid Patrick Wintour)

I am somewhat reminded of that ABBA song, "Money Money Money", which rather aptly sums up the Putin-German foundation upon which Germany's current political stance against supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons against Putin's threatening army on its borders is based.

The "Putinversteher" mentality of Germany's political and economic elite is now encouraging Putin to unleash his "Dogs of War" against Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Germany's "Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact" over Ukraine in 2022

As reported by Sky News,

" ... Russia's defence minister has accepted an invitation to meet his UK counterpart Ben Wallace amid fears that an invasion of Ukraine is "imminent".

The British defence secretary offered earlier this week to hold talks with Sergei Shoigu in London to discuss mutual security concerns, against heightened tensions with the Kremlin over its former Soviet neighbour But given the last bilateral defence talks between the two countries took place in London, Mr Shoigu has agreed to meet in Moscow instead." (Sky News : 22 January 2022) (my emphasis).

What is interesting about this proposed meeting is that it almost obviously has the blessing of Putin.

Now recall that in my blog entry (19/01/2022) I wrote that,

 

" .... we now have the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock (right), 

 

" ..[insisting that] her country would stick to its ban on German weapons exports on a visit to Kiev this week.  “Our stance is not only well known, but historically well founded,” Ms Baerbock said.

But she has not commented on whether the new German government plans to continue Mrs Merkel’s policy of obstructing its allies from arming Ukraine." (Dominic Nicholls, Danielle Sheridan, Nataliya Vasilyeva, Justin Huggler : Daily Telegraph : 18 January 2022) (my emphasis)"

The mask has now fallen from this argument of German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and revealed the true "historically well founded" German reason for not supplying Ukraine with arms to defend itself against Putin.

Step forward Kay-Achim Schönbach (left), the head of the German navy.

BBC News now reports that,

"The head of the German navy has resigned over controversial comments he made over Ukraine.
...
He made the comments while speaking at a think-tank discussion in India on Friday and the video was later published to social media. (Youtube : 21 January 2022 : pos: 1:04)

In the video, Mr Schönbach said Putin needed to be treated as an equal by the west.

"It is easy to give him the respect he really demands - and also probably deserves," he said.

He added that the Crimean peninsula, which Russia annexed in 2014, "is gone and will never come back". (BBC News : 23 January 2022) (my emphasis)

One should NOT be surprised at the revealing comments of Germany's Head of Navy.

As the Economist wrote in 2014, the year when Putin illegally annexed Crimea and sent his troops into the Donbas region of Ukraine,

"WHEN Germans add the word Versteher (one who understands) to a term, they generally mix flattery with irony. So a Frauenversteher (one who understands women) is usually a man who boasts excessively about his knowledge of the opposite sex. The label is now being attached to so-called Russlandversteher or Putinversteher: members of the elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at dinner parties.

They include two former Social Democratic chancellors. In the newspaper Die Zeit, Helmut Schmidt said Mr Putin’s annexation of Crimea was not quite “legitimate” but certainly “understandable”. Gerhard Schröder went further and threw himself into Mr Putin’s hug (left) at a party in St Petersburg in late April (ostensibly to mark Mr Schröder’s 70th birthday). (The Economist : 8 May 2014) (my emphasis)

Kay-Achim Schönbach, the head of the German navy, is certainly a "Putinversteher" as defined above. 

But what about German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock? Has she also exposed herself as a "Putinversteher"? 

Both "Putinversteher" Kay-Achim Schönbach and Annalena Baerbock need a history lesson about Ukraine from US Secretary of State, John Blinken, before tacitly agreeing with the sentiments of former German Chancellors, including Angela Merkel, that Putin's illegal invasion and annexation of Crimea is "certainly understandable" . (cf: Matthew Chance and Laura Smith-Spark : CNN : 22 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As reported by Euronews (with AFP),

"Ukraine's foreign minister (left) has accused Germany of undermining unity among the country's allies and of "encouraging" Vladimir Putin by refusing to deliver arms to Kyiv.
....
"Today, the unity of the West with Russia is more important than ever. To achieve it and deter the Russian Federation, we are all working together," Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba responded via Twitter.
....
"German partners must stop such words and actions to undermine unity and encourage Vladimir Putin to a new attack on Ukraine." (Euronews : 23 January 2022) (my emphasis)

The question now is, "Is Germany resuscitating an equivalent of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact" of 1939 between Germany and Stalin's Russia over Ukraine in 2022?

(to be continued)