What sanctions against Putin will the EU come up with? A little 'slap on the wrist'?

Putin has invaded Ukraine. 

The world community now stands severly tested as to whether their words will be followed by deeds.

As Michael McFaul states,

"After Hitler annexation and wars, we created the UN Security Council to create laws against annexation, against great powers taking territory from smaller powers. Putin did just that. The world has to respond now. Right now." (CNBC TV : YouTube : 22 February 2020) (my emphasis)

Contrast the response of McFaul to that of the EU's foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell.

As reported by BBC News,

"EU foreign ministers will adopt sanctions on Tuesday afternoon against Russia over its recognition and incursion into Ukrainian separatist regions, the bloc's foreign policy chief Josep Borrell (left) has said.
...
The 74-year-old told reporters while he wouldn't call Moscow's deployment of troops to separatist regions "a fully-fledged invasion", he emphasised that the EU considers the region as Kyiv's territory and said that "Russian troops are on Ukrainian soil".
...
Envoys from members states will meet on Tuesday morning where EU officials expect there to be some debate on the strength of measures to be applied, with some countries favouring a more limited response. (BBC News : 22 February 2022) (my emphasis)

So, unlike McFaul, Putin moving troops into Ukraine's occupied Donbasregion is not seen by Borrell as "a fully-fledged invasion". 

Has Josep Borrell not read ANY history? Was Hitler's 'annexation' of the Sudetenland in Czechoslovakia in 1938 NOT an invasion of Czechoslovakia by his Nazi Wermacht? (Wikipedia) (right: Hitler in Prague after his invasion of Czechoslovakia)

But even more critically, exactly "what" sanctions will the EU adopt against Putin for his second invasion of Ukraine ? 

And which EU countries are favouring a "limited" response?

This morning, as UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson is holding an emergency Cobra meeting at his offices in 10 Downing Street, UK Health Minister Sajid Javid outlines the sanctions strategy of the UK.

As he says in this interview,

"[Boris Johnson] spoke late last night to President Zelensky of Ukraine to offer him our support and solidarity and also told him we will be taking action as we said we always will.....

.... It's clear from President Putin's actions that he has choosen confrontation over dialogue .....

.... Those sanctions, as we've again said before, ... these sanctions will be targetting individuals, companies, and businesses with links to the Russian regime, but also we will be looking at what sectors of the Russian economy can be targeted ..." (BBC News : 7.35 a.m. 22 February 2020) (my emphasis)

So the $ 64 question now is,

"What sanctions package will the EU come up with? And will it be as broad and targetted as those sanctions that UK Minister Sajid Javid has outlined in his BBC interview this morning?"

More specifically, "which EU countries are favouring a "limited" response?

My guess is that the EU countries favouring a "limited response" to Putins second invasion of Ukraine would be Germany, France, and Italy.

 Already, as reported by Crispian Balmer and Giuseppe Fonte,

"Any sanctions that may be imposed on Russia by the European Union should not include energy imports, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi (left) said on Friday.
....
"We are discussing sanctions with the EU and in the course of these discussions we have made our position known, that they should be concentrated on narrow sectors without including energy," Draghi said at a news conference." (Reuters : 18 February 2022) (my emphasis)

And as reported by RFE/RL,

"German Chancellor Olaf Scholz (right) spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin by phone on February 21 as part of efforts that a Scholz spokesman said were intended to “prevent a catastrophe” in Ukraine.
...
Germany has vowed to join its Western allies in placing tough sanctions on Moscow should it decide to invade its neighbor." (RFE/RL : 21 February 2022) (my emphasis)

But what, exactly, does the Olaf Scholz caveat "tough sanctions" mean?

Will Nord Stream2 be plugged?

That, I doubt very much, since it will also supply Mario Draghi's Italy with gas.

Germany uses approximately 2.46 times more gas than France. (Index Mundi)

Indeed, as Forrest Crellin reports,

"Despite tight gas supplies in the EU, the French gas system was in good shape in 2021. In particular, there was good storage filling during the summer season following reduced exports to neighboring countries, GRTgaz said." (Reuters : 3 February 2022) (my emphasis)

It should also be noted that Nuclear Energy and Renewables generate a sizeable chunk of French electricity. 

Indeed, France EXPORTS GAS and electricity!

So exactly WHAT sanctions against Putin will the EU come up with?

(to be continued)

Putin on the brink of invading Ukraine..... Putin starts invasion!!!!

It is interesting to note that, suddenly, France's President Macron has become 'flavour of the month' with Putin.

Yesterday (20 Feb 2022) Macron and Putin had TWO calls, as reported by David M. Herszenhorn, Giorgio Leali and Suzanne Lynch.

Call 1:

"The Kremlin on Sunday used a telephone call between Russian President Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron to broadcast an array of provocative, unproven allegations of belligerence by Ukraine and NATO countries, insisting the West was “pushing Kyiv towards a military solution to the so-called Donbass problem.”"

Call 2:

"But in a second Macron-Putin call held hours after the first, after the French president had also spoken with his American counterpart Joe Biden, the Kremlin and Biden “in principle” agreed to hold a bilateral summit, followed by a meeting with all relevant parties, on the security situation in Europe, according to the Elysée. The Kremlin did not immediately publish its own readout of the second call or confirm Putin had agreed to the summit." (Politico : 20 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Channel 4 News : YouTube :  20 Feb 2022

 Macron, it would seem, is a glutton for punishment from Putin.

No doubt, bearing in mind the upcoming French presidential elections in April of this year, and the public knowledge that Macron fancies himself as the heir to Merkel's former leadership in the EU; we can expect Macron to continuously beat the drum of the Russian Trojan Horse of Minsk2 protocols as a way of preventing Putin from invading Ukraine for the second time, with all the global consequences that such an invasion will also precipitate.

And whilst Macron is 'politically grandstanding' on the international stage as a means of bolstering his chances in the upcoming French presidential elections, the BBC reports that,

"US President Joe Biden has agreed "in principle" to hold a summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss the crisis over Ukraine.

The talks proposed by France will only take place if Russia does not invade its neighbour, the White House said.
...
In a statement that confirmed the proposal, the White House also said Russia appeared to be "continuing preparations for a full-scale assault on Ukraine very soon", and that the US was ready to impose "swift and severe consequences" should it happen." (BBC News : 21 February 2022) (my emphasis)

In the background, Putin continues his 'invasion' of Ukraine by using his proxies in the occupied Donbas.

As reported by Tim Lister, Olga Voitovych, Kostan Nechyporenko, Julia Kesa and Denis Lapin,

"The Ukrainian defense ministry has reported further ceasefire violations in the east, after a day of heavy weapons fire Saturday.

The ministry said that in the first 11 hours of Sunday, "20 incidents of ceasefire violation by the Russian occupation forces were observed, including 18 incidents when the Russian occupation forces utilized weapons prohibited by the Minsk Agreements." ......

Ukraine said it recorded a total of 136 ceasefire violations on Saturday." (CNN : 20 February 2022) (my emphasis) (video: RFERL : YouTube : 19 February 2022 )

As also reported by Michael Starr and Reuters,

"Pro-Russian forces are firing heavy weapons from residential areas and endangering civilian populations, Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov (right) accused on Saturday.

At the Munich security conference, Reznikov said "The command of the Russian occupation forces allocates artillery and armed vehicles among residential buildings and from there, shells our localities. It is the behavior of criminals who provoke us to make mistakes." (MSN : 21 February 2022) (my emphasis)

It is Putin who is giving the command for these attacks against Ukrainians by his proxies in the Donbas.

It is these attacks by Putin's proxies in the Donbas that will serve as his argument for a full invasion of Ukraine. 

It is these attacks that gives the lie to Putin's telephone tête-à-tête calls with Macron in which he claims to seek a peaceful solution with Ukraine rather than to invade Ukraine for the second time.

US President Biden is correct in stating that,

"The talks proposed by France will only take place if Russia does not invade its neighbour, the White House said."

The constant diplomatic to-ing and fro-ing between Putin and diplomats from the US, Great Britain, and the EU may have run its course.

As reported by the Mail Online,

"Vice President Kamala Harris warned about the 'real possibility of war in Europe' as sources alleged that Russian commanders on the ground have received orders to proceed with an invasion of Kiev, and that they're now making specific battle plans. 
.....
No less than 75 percent of Putin's conventional forces are now poised at the Ukrainian border as Blinken warned that 'we are on the brink of an invasion'.

Ongoing tensions prompted Biden to convene a National Security Meeting while Harris wrapped up a Munich Security Conference, where she called the situation a 'decisive moment' for world leaders who 'still sincerely hope that there is a diplomatic path out of this moment.' " (Mail Online : 20 February 2022) (my emphasis)

We are now on the brink of war.

 STOP PRESS

BBC News Monday 21 February at 15.12

Russian Duma calling for rebel areas in Donbas to be recognized as Independent states. Putin can then flood rebel areas with Russian troops.

Is this Putin's next gambit?

STOP PRESS 2

Putin has played his gambit!

The touchpaper for war has been lit. 

21 February 2022

(to be continued)

Putin is now diplomatically left out in the cold.

In 1964, in the lead up to the British election, Harold Wilson (left) is supposed to have coined the famous phrase, ‘A week is a long time in politics.’

The current frenzied diplomatic actions and political statements coming from the mouths of EU, UK, US, and international politicians, as Putin now threatens 'nuclear war' if his demands to turn Ukraine into a vassal state of Russia are not met, now changes Harold Wilson's famous phrase into, "An hour is a long time in politics".

US Vice President Kamala Harris at Munich Security Conference : BBC 19 Feb 2022

 

As US Vice President Kamala Harris lays out the level of sanctions against Putin and his cronies should he invade Ukraine, Aljazeera reports that,

"Russia’s President Vladimir Putin oversaw military manoeuvres by strategic nuclear missile forces as the worst crisis since the Cold War grips Europe.
.....
The Russian leader [Putin] reportedly ordered the drills to begin. Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov made a reference to nuclear launch codes.

“Such test launches, of course, are impossible without the head of state. You know about the famous black suitcase and the red button,” Peskov said." (Aljazeera : 19 February 2022) (my emphasis) 

Aljazeera : YouTube 18 February 2022

And whilst Putin and Lukashenko were watching military manoeuvres by strategic nuclear missile forces,

"Ukraine's Russian-backed breakaway eastern territories have ordered military mobilisations amid a deadly escalation in fighting. Men of fighting age in the self-declared people's republics of Donetsk and Luhansk are being put on stand-by.
......
Western nations have accused Russia of trying to stage a fake crisis in the eastern regions as a pretext to invade. International monitors report a "dramatic increase" in attacks along the line dividing rebel and government forces." (BBC : 19 February 20223) (my emphasis)

Russian Fake Crisis Propaganda : CNN : 20 Feb 2022

But as Putin waves his 'nuclear stick' at Ukraine and, more specifically, at NATO, 

"Beijing's Foreign Minister [Wang Yi] (left) said that Ukraine had the right to safeguard its sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.....

"With an invasion looking increasingly imminent, China's top diplomat used his appearance at the Munich security conference on Saturday to warn Mr Putin against following through on his expansionist ambitions.
Wang Yi affirmed Ukraine's right to safeguard its territorial integrity and urged a diplomatic solution to the escalating crisis. (John Varga : Daily Express : 19 February 2022) (my emphasis)

This position of China must have somewhat shocked Putin, given that barely a week ago,

"Wang Yi's slap-down of Mr Putin comes as a major surprise, given that China's President Xi Jinping appeared to back Mr Putin's Ukraine policy.

The two leaders met in Beijing at the start of the Beijing Winter Olympics. They issued a joint statement calling on the West to “abandon the ideologised approaches of the cold war”. (ibid John Varga) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, cannot allow himself to be seen internationally as being somewhat dictated to by Chinese President Xi Jinping.

During the early 1960's it was Mao's China who had an ideological rift with the then USSR, argueing that the USSR had become "revisionist" by NOT taking a belligerent stand against the West.

"The Sino-Soviet split was the breaking of political relations between the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), caused by doctrinal divergences that arose from their different interpretations and practical applications of Marxism–Leninism, as influenced by their respective geopolitics during the Cold War (1945–1991).[2] In the late 1950s and early 1960s, Sino-Soviet debates about the interpretation of orthodox Marxism became specific disputes about the USSR's policies of national de-Stalinization and international peaceful coexistence with the Western world, which CPC chairman Mao Zedong decried as revisionism. Against that ideological background, China took a belligerent stance towards the West, and publicly rejected the USSR's policy of peaceful coexistence between the Eastern and Western blocs.[2] In addition, Beijing resented the closer Soviet ties with India, and Moscow feared Mao was too nonchalant about the horrors of nuclear war." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis) (above: Mao and Khrushchev)

Ironically, it is now Beijing's Foreign Secretary, Wang Yi, who is arguing against Putin trying to re-create the old USSR through his 'expansionist' ambitions over Ukraine, and by taking a belligerent stand against the West, which itself is determined to defend Ukraine's borders and territorial integrity.

Without China supporting him in his belligerent stand against the West, Putin is now diplomatically left out in the cold.

Whether this will make him change his mind about invading Ukraine is, however, another matter.

In the words of Mikhail Khordokovsky,

"He (Putin) is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)"

(to be continued)

What is Putin really fearful about that he will ignite World War 3?

On 25 November 2014, the year that Putin illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea, I wrote that,

"In my last blog entry I stated that,

"It is also about time that Merkel ends the rather suspicious 'special' relationship that she has with Putin. Those tete-a-tete's, those private conversations that she has with Putin, sometimes until 1.30am in the morning, rather belies her 'incredulity' about his 'open' invasion of eastern Ukraine and his behaviour on the international stage."

What is now emerging, as reported in RT (November 23, 2014) is that Germany's Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier (right), has stated in an interview with Der Spiegel magazine that, 

• he is against Ukraine joining NATO
• 
  he does not believe it is realistic for Ukraine to join the European Union in the foreseeable future, as the economic and political modernization of Ukraine is a “project for a few generations.”  (my emphasis)
• it is possible for NATO to have a partnership with Ukraine, but not membership

Steinmeier could NOT have made these statements WITHOUT the blessing of Merkel. Could this be what Merkel and Putin agreed upon when they had their private 4-hour tete a tete in Brisbane? (blog)" (blog 25/11/2014)

 

Let us also recall that in 2014, in a speech at the 50th Munich Security Conference, Germany's President Joachim Gauck said that,

 

"I have to admit that while there are genuine pacifists in Germany, there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness or a desire to disengage from the world. In the words of the historian Heinrich August Winkler, this is an attitude that grants Germany a questionable "right to look the other way, which other Western democracies" cannot claim for themselves. Restraint can thus be taken too far if people start making special rules for themselves. Whenever that happens, I will criticise it." (Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis) (blog entry 30/11/2014)

Guack was arguing that the 'Ostpolitik' instituted by the SPD member Willy Brandt (right), when he was Chancellor of Germany during the 1970's, and that is still fervently clung to by Merkel and the SDP member Steinmeier, has now become defunct.

 
The world has changed, he argues, and Germany must,

" ..... not turn a blind eye, not run from threats, but instead stand firm, not forget, neglect or betray universal values, but instead uphold these values together with our friends and partners. Let us be seen to be living by them, let us defend them." (ibid  Federal President Joachim Gauck) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward to today and it is against this German political backdrop that Putin's current demands about Ukraine never being able to allow to join NATO has to be viewed. 

 

Let us also remind ourselves that recently, as reported by Laurenz Gehrke,

 

"Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (left) has been nominated to join the board of directors at Gazprom, the state-owned Russian energy company behind the Nord Stream 2 pipeline." (Politico : 4 February 2022) (my emphasis) 

 

And against this backdrop, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz will be meeting today (15 Feb 2022) with Putin to try and prevent him from invading Ukraine.

As reported by Michael Fitzpatrick,

"Germany's Scholtz (right) was firm in his resolve to support Ukraine and hit Russia "immediately" with punishing sanctions should Moscow invade.

....
Scholz has warned Russia it should "not underestimate our unity and determination" but also hedged against unequivocally backing Biden's pledge to "bring an end" to Russia's new Nord Stream 2 gas link to Germany." (Radio France Internationale : 14 February 2022) (my emphasis)

But as Germany's former President, Joachim Gauck, stated in 2014,

" ... there are also people who use Germany’s guilt for its past as a shield for laziness or a desire to disengage from the world. In the words of the historian Heinrich August Winkler, this is an attitude that grants Germany a questionable "right to look the other way, which other Western democracies" cannot claim for themselves" (ibid President Joachim Gauck)

German Chancellor Scholz's meeting with Putin today will call on him for restraint.

However, in the words of  Joachim Gauck, "Restraint can thus be taken too far if people start making special rules for themselves"(ibid Guack)

And Scholtz's reluctance to "bring an end" to Russia's Nord Stream2 gas link to Germany exemplifies him "making questionable special rules" behind the 1970's "Ostpolitik" shield of Willy Brandt that has long become defunct. (cf: Joachim Glauck)

As German Chancellor Scholtz meets today with Putin, Dan Sabbagh and Jessica Elgot (left) report that,

"Russia is sending thousands more troops to its border with Ukraine in a sign that Vladimir Putin could extend the crisis for weeks, as Boris Johnson warned the situation had become “very, very dangerous”.

British officials estimate that a further 14 Russian battalions are heading towards Ukraine, each numbering about 800 troops, on top of the 100 battalions massed on the borders – a force already believed capable of launching an invasion." (The Guardian : 14 February 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Wall Street Journal: 14 Feb 2022) (video: Tim Lister, Gianluca Mezzofiore and Paul P. Murphy:CNN : 15 February 2022)

As also reported by Alix Culbertson,

"Ms Truss (UK Foreign Secretary) told Sky News: "If we saw an invasion into Ukraine, there would be severe costs in terms of a long-running conflict, we could see the undermining of security more broadly in Europe and could see other aggressors around the world see it as an opportunity to expand their ambitions too.

"This is a very dangerous moment for the world." (Sky News (video below) : 15 february 2022) (my emphasis) 

What is disconcerting is that Putin could extend this crisis for weeks (Dan Sabbagh and Jessica Elgot), if not months.

 As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov and Yuras Karmanau (Associated Press),

"After weeks of rising tensions over Ukraine, the tenor changed Monday, when Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left) indicated that Russia was ready to keep talking about the security grievances that have led to the crisis. In what could be another sign that the Kremlin would like to lower the temperature, Russia’s Defense Ministry announced Tuesday that some units participating in military exercises would begin returning to their bases."

 

Dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's suggestion to Putin that they should "keep talking about the security grievances that have led to the crisis" viz. the rollback of NATO in the east and, in particular stopping Ukraine from joining NATO, is a mantra that has been chanted as early as 2014 by Germany's then Foreign Minister, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. (see above)

So the critical question is:

"Why has Putin waited from 2014 until now to throw everything his military forces have at their disposal (including the proverbial kitchen sink) along Ukraine's border?"

What is Putin really fearful about that he will ignite World War 3?

 

(to be continued)

Putin's lunacy now stands exposed for the whole world to see.

 In my last blog entry I wrote,

"Whither, therefore, the Minsk2 proposals?

To assume that 'raising the Minsk2 protocols from the dead' can serve to hold back Putin's 'Dogs of War', who are now straining at the leash to invade Ukraine, is tantamount to believing that 'pigs can fly'! " (blog entry 10 February 2022)

As David M. Herszenhorn (right) now reports,

"The heightened alarm came a day after another round of talks between representatives of France, Germany, Ukraine and Russia — in the so-called Normandy format — once again yielded no progress in implementing the Minsk peace accords, which are intended to end the existing conflict in eastern Ukraine.
.....
Putin, following a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Kremlin on Monday night, had personally demanded that the Ukrainian government talk directly with [ his proxies in the Donbas] the separatists. 

“It won’t work otherwise,” Putin said. 

“They do not want to talk directly with [MY] representatives of Donbass. It is written directly in Point 12, in Point 9, Point 11 that such and such issues will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of these territories,” Putin said. “Discuss and agree with them. How else can you work then? Impossible." (Politico : 11 February 2022) (my emphasis)

At the same time, using NATO as his excuse, Putin is now threatening to unleash a nuclear war.

Youtube : Bulletin of Atomic Scientists : 11 February 2022

Let us recall, as John Hall reported on 2 April 2015, that,

"Vladimir Putin is planning to exploit the threat of nuclear war to force Nato out of countries bordering Russia, it has been claimed.

A secret meeting between intelligence figures in Moscow and Washington reportedly revealed Putin will consider any attempt to return the Crimean peninsula to Ukraine as declaration of war and will take any necessary step - including using nuclear weapons - to retain control of the region." (MailOnline : 2 April, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf: blog entry 2 August 2015)

Putin is now using that same 'nuclear' political bludgeon except that today, his finger is hovering over the button that will release his nuclear option.

As Mikhail Khordokovsky recently remarked,

"He (Putin) is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Many countries are now urging their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, as the 'red lights are flashing' that Putin's 'Dogs of War', currently in Belarus, may at any minute launch a 'blitzkrieg' against Kiev.

As reported by Politico,

"In addition to the U.S., the United Kingdom, Latvia, Denmark, Israel, Estonia, Norway, Japan and South Korea all directed their citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible." (ibid David M. Herszenhorn) (my emphasis)

Youtube : BBC News : 11 Feb 2022

More disconcerting, as reported by RFE/RL,

"Russia says six warships from its navy are heading to the Black Sea from the Mediterranean to take part in military maneuvers amid heightened tensions with the West over Moscow's troop buildup on its border with Ukraine, which has raised fears of a possible invasion of the former Soviet republic.." (RFE/RL : 9 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 8 February 2022 

 As also reported by Amy Mackinnon (left),

"As part of its exercises in the Black Sea, Moscow has declared large swaths of the sea around the Crimean peninsula and the Ukrainian port of Odessa unsafe for navigation during its drills next week, as well as the southern half of the Sea of Azov, the Ukrainian Naval Forces Command said in a post on Facebook on Thursday. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba condemned the move, describing it as a tactic of “hybrid warfare.” (Foreign Policy : 10 February 2022) (my emphasis)

These so-called Russian naval 'navigation drills' that will be taking place in an increasing overcrowded Black Sea ; should anything happen between e.g. a US or British warship and a Russian warship, this WOULD precipitate a dangerous escalation that could give Putin his raison d'être for pressing that nuclear button.

Putin's lunacy now stands exposed for the whole world to see.

(to be continued)

Putin is dangerously convinced of his own infallibility

Suddenly, throughout the diplomatic world of the EU and the US, the Minsk2 protocols, signed on 12 February 2015 by

• [Putin's proxies] Separatist's leaders Alexander Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky
• Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
• Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
  

is being put forward as a "practical" framework for the prevention of Putin unleashing, with his 'Dogs of War' in full preparededness on Ukraine's border, his second invasion of Ukraine. (image: left to right:  Zakharchenko, Plotnitsky, Tagliavini, Kuchma, Zurabov)

Since 2015, Putin has treated the Minsk2 protocols with contempt.

What everyone seems to ignore is that nowhere in these protocols is Putin's illegal invasion of Ukraine's Crimea, and its illegal incorporation into the Russian Federation, mentioned.

As reported by NBC News in 2014,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a law Friday completing the annexation of Crimea. 

The ceremony at the Kremlin means Crimea has become part of the Russian Federation as two administrative districts, Crimea and the port city of Sevastopol.

Before signing the law, Putin hailed the incorporation of Crimea into Russian territory as a “remarkable event,” The Associated Press reported." (NBC News : 21 March 2014) (my emphasis)

(video: Youtube 27 Mar 2015)

 

 

Having raised Minsk2 with Putin as a way of 'defusing' the crisis on Ukraine's border that Putin himself has created, Macron then reported that, "Russian leader Vladimir Putin told him he would not further escalate the Ukraine crisis in their marathon talks at the Kremlin a day earlier." (Cumnock Chronicle : 8 February 2022) (my emphasis)

However, according the Putin's mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov,  “in the current situation, Moscow and Paris can’t be reaching any deals”. (ibid Cumnock Chronicle)

I am somewhat reminded of the  declaration made by British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain in his 30 September 1938 remarks in London concerning the Munich Agreement between himself and Hitler, and the subsequent Anglo-German Declaration.

Hitler had agreed that he "would NOT invade Poland"!

"Peace in our time", proclaimed Chamberlain, as he landed back in the UK.

Yet Hitler's subsequent invasion of Poland sparked off WW2.

And now in 2022, as Lauren Lewis and Will Stewart report,

"Russia has denied reports that Vladimir Putin agreed a deal on Ukraine with French President Emmanuel Macron during talks in Moscow yesterday despite Paris' claim he managed to exact concessions from the Kremlin.  
...
The denial comes amid fiery warnings from Moscow that a nuclear war could break out if Ukraine joins NATO and after Putin accused the West of 'complete disregard for our concerns' following the six-hour-long talks yesterday."  ( : Mail Online : 8 February 2022) (my emphasis) (video: Mail Online : 10 February 2022)

Whither, therefore, the Minsk2 proposals?

To assume that 'raising the Minsk2 protocols from the dead' can serve to hold back Putin's 'Dogs of War', who are now straining at the leash to invade Ukraine, is tantamount to believing that 'pigs can fly'! 

As Mikhail Khordokovsky recently remarked,

"He (Putin) is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Is Putin actually afraid of starting a war with Ukraine?

Whilst Emmanuel Macron meets with Putin in Moscow, over in the US, President Biden and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, have thrown down the gauntlet to Putin.

As reported in the Independent,

"On his first trip to the White House as German Chancellor, Mr Scholz said Berlin and Washington “will be united” in their response to an incursion by Moscow, after the US president warned they would bring the £8.3bn [Nord Stream2] project “to an end” if Russian troops cross the Ukrainian border." (The Independent : 7 February 2020) (my emphasis)

 

 

Meanwhile, back in Moscow, Macron and Putin have thrown down the gauntlet to Biden and Scholz by emphasising that they had found points of "convergence" regarding the "security of Europe".

 

As reported by CNN,

 

"Macron said that he and Putin were able to find "points of convergence" over the crisis and that it was "up to us to agree, jointly, concrete and specific measures to stabilize the situation and to de-escalate tensions."
...
Putin, who had sharply critical words for NATO and Ukraine, suggested "further steps" were possible on the diplomatic front.
...
Despite the diplomatic overtures, Putin accused Ukraine of violating the rights of its Russian-speaking population .... (CNN : 8 February 2022) (my emphasis)

 

 

Similarly, as reported by France24,

"Putin said that a number of Macron’s ideas concerning security were realistic and that the two would talk again once Macron had travelled to Kyiv to meet Ukraine’s leadership." (France24 :7 February 2022) (my emphasis)

 

As also reported by Reuters on January 19 2022,

"French President Emmanuel Macron called on fellow members of the European Union on Wednesday to work together to draw up proposals for a new security deal with Russia in the coming weeks involving a "frank dialogue" with Moscow.

Speaking amid growing worries over a Russian military build-up at Ukraine's borders, Macron did not spell out what the "new stability and security order" he is seeking could entail, but said it must ensure Europe defends its interests.

"We will make sure that Europe makes its unique and strong voice heard," he told the European Parliament as he laid out France's priorities for its sixth-month EU presidency." (Reuters : 19 January 2022) (my emphasis)

These EU security proposals of Macron were first proposed by Macron in 2020, who envisaged an EU Defence Policy that would be parallel to the NATO security policy of Europe. 

Now as reported by Patrick Wintour  in 2020, Macron said that,

"Europe’s middle classes will only remain reconciled to the European Union if it becomes more integrated, with an effective defence policy, a larger budget and integrated capital markets" (The Guardian : 15 February 2020) (my emphasis)

At this time, when Angela Merkel was still Chancellor of Germany,

"Macron was speaking after two leading German politicians affirmed Germany needed to do more to respond to Macron’s offer of dialogue.

The [then] German foreign minister, Heiko Maas (right), said: “Germany is ready to get more involved, including militarily.” He called for the “construction of a European security and defence union as a strong, European pillar of Nato”. (ibid Patrick Wintour)

Of critical relevance to Macron's proposals for an 'independent' EU security policy is the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols (cf: Wikipedia).

These protocols, that were,

" ...brokered by Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany and President François Hollande of France, took place in Minsk. These produced a ‘package of measures for the implementation of the Minsk agreements’ (‘Minsk-2’). This document, signed on 12 February 2015 by representatives from the OSCE, Russia, Ukraine, the DNR and LNR, has been the framework for subsequent attempts to end the war." (Duncan Allen : Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Since 2015, however, Minsk2 has been largely ignored by Putin. 

As Duncan Allen explains,

 

"... Minsk-2 supports mutually exclusive views of sovereignty: either Ukraine is sovereign (Ukraine’s interpretation), or it is not (Russia’s interpretation) – this is the ‘Minsk conundrum’. (ibid )

And yet ... and yet ...

At their press conference yesterday, BOTH Macron and Putin re-emphasised the implementation of Minsk2 to avoid Putin's second invasion of Ukraine, with Putin indirectly stressing that Ukraine is NOT a sovereign country as evidenced by his reiteration that his proxies in Ukraine's Donbas MUST be fully consulted about the future of Donbas.

 

France24 : 7 February 2022

Even more disconcerting, Putin reasserted that Ukraine's Crimea is no longer part of Ukraine since he illegally invaded and annexed it into the Russian Federation in 2014!.

The political 'backslapping' between them at yesterday's press conference was nothing more nor less than a public display of the "Putin-Macron mutual admiration society".

Putin is seemingly digging in his heels over continuing to threaten his second invasion of Ukraine and, as one of Putin's proxies in Ukraine's Donbas recently stated,

"Denis Pushilin (left), [Putin's proxy] head of the breakaway Donetsk People's Republic, said there was a high likelihood of a war that would bring huge casualties, although it would be "madness" to embrace such a conflict.

"First of all we rely on ourselves, but we do not rule out that we will be forced to turn to Russia if Ukraine, with the support of Western countries, passes a certain line," he told Reuters in an interview in his fortified office." (Anton Zverev: (MSN) Reuters:7 February 2022) (my emphasis)

There may, however, be other reasons why Putin is threatening to invade Ukraine and, in the process, engulfing Europe in the conflagration that will follow.

As reported by Sky News,

"Exiled Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky claims Vladimir Putin is 'afraid of starting a war with Ukraine'

....
"At present the opposition in Russia has been reduced to a bare minimum - by way of arrests, pressure on their families etc."But it also means that opposition sentiments have gone deeper underground. This means that Putin doesn't really know what society's reaction is going to be to this or that action.
 

"It is one of the reasons why he is in fact afraid of starting a war with Ukraine.
...

"He is not confident that Russian society would support such a war - and I'm sure that Russian people will not support it. (cf: Niko Vorobyov: Aljazeera: 3 February 2022)

...
"This is a serious challenge for Putin - it is something that he is afraid of tackling.
 

And [Khodorkovsky] warned that if in the past Mr Putin might have been a man who would listen to others, or exercise some caution, "this has changed".

He added: "He is convinced of his own infallibility, and he is capable of all sorts of actions, including ill-judged ones." (Sky News : 6 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 6 Feb 2022

 So is Putin actually afraid of starting a war with Ukraine?

 (to be continued)

Putin is now at the edge of lashing out dangerously

Let us recall that in my blog entry (11 August 2016) I wrote that,

"As inevitably as the sun will rise to-morrow morning, Putin is repeating his pretext for escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine that he did when he was head of the FSB in 1999, and oversaw the Moscow apartment bombings that he used as a causus belli to start his war with Chechnya.

Let us for a moment remind ourselves that those 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow led to the deaths of 293, and injured more than 1000 people, whilst at the same time spreading a wave of fear across the country. (cf Wikipedia)

There is enough evidence that exposes the fact that these bombings were staged by the then FSB under Putin. (cf Wikipedia)

This is best illustrated by the failed Ryazan bombing attempt by the FSB.

Ryazan 1999 : Part1 and Part2

And now (2016) we have Putin attempting to use the very same FSB tactic to provoke a full scale war with Ukraine. " (blog : 11 August 2016)  (Full Video : Youtube 23 April 2013)

Fast forward to 2022 and Julian Borger, Shaun Walker, and Dan Sabbagh report that,

"US officials claim they have evidence of a Russian plan to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for an invasion.

The alleged plot would involve using corpses, footage of blown-up buildings, fake Ukrainian military hardware, Turkish-made drones and actors playing the part of Russian-speaking mourners.
.....
The Pentagon spokesman, John Kirby, said the video would have purported to show a Ukrainian attack on Russian territory or Russian-speaking people in eastern Ukraine and would be “very graphic”. He added that the US believed that the plan had the backing of the Kremlin." (The Guardian : 3 February 2020) (my emphasis) (cf also : Aljazeera : BBC News : Financial Times : Reuters :  amongst others)  

MSNBC : 3 February 2020

It cannot be a coincidence that Putin's modus operandi in 1999 to stoke up Russian hysteria against the Chechen people comes straight out of the playbook of 'maskirovka' (Wikipedia), the Russian doctrine that covers a broad range of measures for military deception, from camouflage to denial and deception.

When viewed against the evidence of the FSB-orchestrated plan to blow up Russian citizens in Ryazan in 1999,  the reports of many (cf. Aljazeera : BBC News : Financial Times : Reuters) that Putin is possibly planning to make a “very graphic” fake video of a Ukrainian attack as a pretext for his 2nd invasion of Ukraine is not so far fetched as it may seem.

Just as in 1999, when the people of Ryazan did not fall for the crude and deceptive explanations about the attempted bombing planned by Putin's FSB, today there is the small beginning of an anti-war movement in Saint Petersburg (formerly Leningrad).

As reported by Niko Vorobyov (left),

"In Russia, where protests are tightly restricted, a small anti-war movement is growing as the Ukraine crisis rumbles on.
....
On Sunday, more than 100 prominent Russian activists, authors and academics signed an an open letter decrying the “party of war in the Russian leadership” and state media.
....
“Russia does not need war with Ukraine or the West,” the letter concludes. “No-one is threatening us, and no-one will attack us. Politics founded on the advancement of the idea of such a war is amoral, irresponsible, and criminal, and cannot be carried on in the name of the Russian people.” (Aljazeera : 3 February 2022) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Jake Cordell (right) reports, Russian economic experts are warning that,

“Russia’s increasingly assertive foreign policy represents a potential double setback for the economy by risking the imposition of additional sanctions while further neglecting long-standing socio-economic problems,” said Scope Ratings analyst Levon Kameryan in a research note published Thursday.
.....
Central to those socio-economic problems is the living standards crisis that has beset the Russian economy in recent years. (Moscow Times : 21 January 2022) (my emphasis)

As the domestic economic problems of the Russian people continues to exact a heavy burden on their everyday lives, and Putin continues to paint himself into an ever tightening political corner, the eyes of the international community will turn towards those Russian 'siloviki' and kleptomaniac oligarchs who live under Putin's "krisha" or, as Howard Witt explains,

"As casually as business executives in Chicago might talk about the cost of fire insurance, businesspeople in Russia trade stories about the cost of their krisha or "roof," referring to mobsters extorting monthly protection payments." (Chicago Tribune : 24 November 1996) (my emphasis)

Is the 'cost' of Putin's 'krisha' now becoming potentially too high for his 'siloviki' and kleptomaniac oligarchs?

Is Putin now at the edge of lashing out dangerously?

(to be continued)