Is Putin now ready to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine?

The current spike in the global price of oil and gas is beginning to cause international concern.

Patti Domm : CNBC: 10 Sept. 2021

 As reported by BBC News,

"Oil prices slumped at the start of the coronavirus pandemic, but demand has been rising in recent months as economies around the world have started to reopen.

Global oil supplies have also taken a hit from hurricanes Ida and Nicholas passing through the Gulf of Mexico and damaging US oil infrastructure.

The price of Brent crude oil rose above $80 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since October 2018." (BBC News : 28 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Sonja van Renssen  (left) also reports that,

"Certainly, the immediate [gas] crisis revolves around security of supply. This dates back to the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2009. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 drove the point home. The vulnerability of gas supply to geopolitics is once again on display today. Plenty of factors help explain the current price crisis, including weather and rebounding post-pandemic demand, but Russia is definitely on the list. 

On Tuesday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said it believed Russia “could do more” to increase gas availability to Europe and ensure adequate supplies in time for winter. Russia has suggested the Nord Stream 2 pipeline could help." (Energy Monitor : 27 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

 It is no wonder that Putin is now pressing harder for Nord Stream2 to become fully operational, just as he signs a new deal with Victor Orban of Hungary to supply Hungary with (cheap?) gas via the TurkStream pipeline, thus bypassing supplying Hungary via Ukraine's pipelines.

As reported by Ukrinform,

"Against the backdrop of an impending crisis over the Kremlin's barely concealed plans to make full use of Nord Stream 2 as a hybrid energy weapon against Ukraine's gas transmission system, Hungary's move looks insidious, to say the least.." (Ukrinform : 29 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Ukrinform further reports that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs [Dmytro Kuleba (left)]of Ukraine reacted immediately to the news, stating it considered Budapest's step "purely political and economically unviable decision taken in favor of the Kremlin," adding that the move failed to comply with “the principles of the Treaty on Good Neighborliness and Cooperation between Ukraine and Hungary of December 6, 1991.”

Moreover, it was stressed that "the Hungarian-Russian gas agreement will have “a significant impact on the energy security of Ukraine and Europe.” (ibid Ukrinform)
 

Dmytro Kuleba is not alone in pointing out that Putin's manipulation of the price and supply of gas to the EU is a security issue for the EU.

Kate Abnett reports that,

"A group of European Parliament lawmakers has asked the European Commission to investigate Gazprom's role in soaring European gas prices, saying the company's behaviour had made them
suspect market manipulation.

In a letter to the EU's executive Commission, dated Sept. 16, around 40 of the Parliament's 700 lawmakers said they suspected Russia's Gazprom had acted to push up gas prices.

"We call on the European Commission to urgently open an investigation into possible deliberate market manipulation by Gazprom and potential violation of EU competition rules," said the letter." (Reuters : 17 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Which rather brings into sharp focus that Putin is now using Nord Stream2 as an energy weapon against the EU. 

Not only is he calling for the green light for Nord Stream2 to pump gas via Germany into the EU but, one suspects, also putting pressure on the EU to end sanctions against himself and his cronies.

Bear in mind that Putinversteher Merkel now acts as the Caretaker Chancellor of Germany until a post-election coalition can emerge, which will then appoint the new Chancellor for Germany. And Nord Stream2 is the pet project of BOTH Putin and Merkel.

Putin may, indeed, be riding high on the wave of the world-wide gas crisis.

However, Zelensky and US President Biden are countering the invasion threats of Putin that he will invade Ukraine should HIS "red" lines be crossed.

As reported by RFERL,

"The Kremlin has reiterated that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure in Ukraine would cross one of President Vladimir Putin's "red lines" as Belarus's authoritarian ruler Alyaksandr Lukashenka accused Washington of using training centers as a guise for setting up bases for the Western military alliance.

Speaking in Kyiv, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba sharply rejected the notion of a Russian "red line" outside of its own borders.

"Putin's 'red lines' are limited to Russia's borders," he tweeted.

"On our side of the Ukrainian-Russian border we can figure out ourselves what to do in the interests of the Ukrainian people, as well as Ukraine's and Europe's security." (RFERL : 27 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, 

"Ukraine began joint military exercises with the United States and other NATO member troops last week, while Russia and Belarus held large-scale drills that alarmed the West." (ibid RFERL)

YouTube : 25 September 2021

Added to which, as reported by Daniel N. Hoffman (right),

"During a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at the White House earlier this month, President Biden “firmly committed” to supporting Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity and “Euro-Atlantic aspiration.” Washington also reaffirmed Ukraine’s right to decide its own foreign policy without foreign interference." (Washington Times : 22 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is also pushing back against Putin on the diplomatic front.

As reported by Peter Dickinson,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy used his September 22 address at the United Nations General Assembly to criticize the international community’s ineffective response to Russian aggression in Ukraine and support calls for the reform of the UN itself, which he branded a “retired superhero.”

The Ukrainian leader painted a grim picture of the damage done to international security by the failure to stand up for international law and hold Vladimir Putin accountable for his attack on Ukraine. “No one in the world feels safe anymore. I emphasize: no one feels safe. And no one can hide behind international law as if behind a stone wall,” commented Zelenskyy." (Atlantic Council : 23 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding his speech at the UN, Zelensky continues to have an  uphill political struggle to gain more concrete support from the EU as Putin stands ready in the wings to cut off gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter.

How will the EU respond to Putin cutting off, or severely limiting, gas supplies to Ukraine this coming winter?

This is the potential political hurdle that Zelensky may soon be facing.

(to be  continued)

Putin and Lukashenka are now staring into the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

 

In my blog post of 15th July, I wrote that,

"It is therefore not surprising that, as reported by Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick,

"VLADIMIR Putin could be heading for war with Ukraine as he plots a new land grab of the disputed region of Donbass, experts have warned.

In an article published this week, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as "one people" and said he has "become convinced" that Ukraine "does not need" Donbass.

The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)"

Alexandra Odynova : CBS News : April 12 2021

 And on the 24th August I reported that,

"More recently, Zelensky described Putin as,

"As for his feelings about Putin, Zelensky described his Russian counterpart as being “irrational” and “emotional, sometimes even highly emotional.”

“He is too emotional when it comes to Ukraine,” Zelensky added." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)"

Against this backdrop, as reported by Paul McLearly (left),

"Since taking office, the Biden administration has kept up Washington’s shipments of weapons and training to the Ukrainian military, including $275 million worth of equipment and support packages since March.

But some in Congress are looking to do more and have included an amendment attached to the 2022 defense bill that would pressure the Biden administration to sell or transfer new air and missile defense systems to Ukraine, including potentially sending an Iron Dome battery currently being operated by the U.S. Army.

..... Since being deployed in Israel in 2011, the system, built by the Israeli defense company Rafael in partnership with Raytheon, has proven itself one of the world’s most effective killers of short-range missiles. The Israeli military has said Iron Dome has knocked down about 90 percent of missiles fired into Israel over the past several years." (Politico : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

The necessity of supplying Zelensky with Iron Dome comes as Putin and  Lukashenka, the beleaguered President of Belarus, join military forces in surrounding Ukraine's Northern border.

As reported by Lisa Yasko (left),

"Belarus dictator Alyaksandr Lukashenka has announced plans to deploy Russian S-400 air defense systems along the Ukrainian border, raising fears that he is prepared to play a more prominent role in Russia’s ongoing hybrid war against Ukraine.

Speaking on September 12 during joint Belarusian-Russian military exercises, Lukashenka said the S-400 systems were part of an anticipated USD 1 billion arms package agreed during his most recent summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
......

It would appear that a significant portion of these security discussions focused on Ukraine. “We should get ready,” Lukashenka (right) commented on Sunday. “Our border with Ukraine is 1,200 kilometers. And we discussed [with Putin] that we could use the S-400s.”  (Atlantic Council : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Besides the facts that Biden is now President of the US, and Putin's closest supporter in the EU, Angela Merkel, will soon be off the political stage in Germany and the EU, the Council of Europe released the following press statement :-

"Ukraine: EU sanctions over territorial integrity prolonged for a further six months

The Council today decided to prolong the sanctions targeting those responsible for undermining or threatening the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine for a further six months until 15 March 2022.

The existing restrictive measures provide for travel restrictions, the freezing of assets, and a ban on making funds or other economic resources available to the listed persons and entities. Sanctions will continue to apply to 177 individuals and 48 entities.

The legal acts were adopted by the Council by written procedure." (European Council : 10 September 2021) (my emphasis)

As Lukashenka and Putin deploy Russian S-400's near the Ukrainian-Belarus border, and thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Friday that all-out war with neighbouring Russia was a possibility, and that he wanted to have a substantive meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Asked at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) summit if there could really be all out-war with Russia, which seized the Crimean Peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and backs pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine's east, Zelenskiy said: "I think there can be." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : 10 September 2021) (my emphasis) 

US President Biden now needs to disprove Dmytro Kuleba (right), Ukraine’s youngest ever foreign minister, who recently stated that,

"This country [Ukraine] has learnt a number of bitter lessons that western promises are likely unfulfilled,” he says. “We do not believe in promises.”

The 40-year-old says Ukraine has come to understand [Ukraine] can only rely on itself. What that means in the short to mid-term, he says, is learning to become an agile military state like Israel: “The circumstances leave no choice. Army, diplomacy and the Ukrainian people — that’s what we have to survive.” (Oliver Carroll : The Independent : 14 September 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin, together with Lukashenka, are now staring into the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

The US and Western Europe now, more than ever, need to step up to the plate to support Ukraine both in deed and in supplying Zelensky with the necessary military equipment to defend Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should not hold his breath over the outcome of the upcoming German elections.

The dust has now settled on the meeting between US President Biden and Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky.

During this meeting US President Biden promised that,

"Alexander Vershbow, Distinguished Fellow, Atlantic Council: The Zelenskyy-Biden meeting was a success for both sides. Biden made clear that Ukraine’s security remains a US priority, dispelling doubts about the US commitment that had arisen from the Nord Stream 2 decision, the chaotic exit from Afghanistan, and the perceived prioritization of Russia since Biden’s meeting with Putin in June.

The two presidents issued a meaty joint statement laying out a robust agenda for renewed cooperation on multiple fronts including defense, energy security, climate change, investment, space, and research and development. The sides agreed to disagree on whether to stop Nord Stream 2, focusing instead on mitigating the risks and imposing costs on Moscow if it uses the pipeline as a geopolitical weapon. Zelenskyy reaffirmed his commitment to reforms and the rule of law that will be essential if Ukraine is to take full advantage of the initiatives in the joint statement and attract foreign investment." (Peter Dickinson : Atlantic Council : 2nd September 2021) (my emphasis)

Whether focussing on the geopolitical risks of Nord Stream2 will somehow square with the soon to be elected new Chancellor of Germany really remains to be seen.

Just prior to their meeting, Eric  Tucker (right) reported that,

"The United States is promising up to $60 million in military aid to Ukraine in advance of a White House meeting on Wednesday between President Joe Biden and his counterpart in Kyiv, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
.......
“Russia’s buildup along the Ukrainian border has highlighted capability shortfalls in the Ukrainian military’s ability to defend against a Russian incursion,” the notification states. “Ukraine’s significant capability gaps must be urgently addressed to reinforce deterrence in light of the current Russian threat.” (AP News : 1 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

This military aid to Ukraine President Zelensky promised by US President Biden comes at a moment when,

"In addition to previously revealed satellite imagery showing a large buildup of aircraft on the airfield near Novofedorivka (on the western coast), the Orbital Insight analysis (with images from PLANET and partner AllSource Analysis) shows trucks near the Opuk training ground practicing to use smoke to obscure troop movements
... 

“When you have this many trucks out there doing smoke operations, that’s pretty significant because that’s a costly exercise to do,” said Soller, a former Army and NGA intelligence officer. “Smoke operations in general are used for two things: One is offensive operations, and one is retrograde. As you can imagine, highly unlikely Russians were training to retrograde out of Crimea.”
...
“With 100,000 Russian troops in the area during this exercise...yes, this was a demonstration to show that they were training to conduct operations into Ukraine if necessary,” he said. (Patrick Tucker : Defence One : 2 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my blog entry of  15 July 2021 I wrote that,

"The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

 What is highly dis-concerting is that,

"Putin ally, [Mikhail Khodarenok] warns that [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

Recall that in April of this year, Putin massed thousands of combat-ready troops on the Russian-Ukraine border. Now these troops are being supplemented by more Russian troops and hardware being built up in Russian occupied Ukrainian Crimea." (blog entry 15 July 2021)

As Mikhail Khodarenok warned,

" ..... [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

It would seem that Putin is living up to his "nuclear threat" posture, as indirectly reported by Patrick Tucker, brought about no doubt by the fact that Emperor Xi of China has his eyes on Afghanistan now that the Taliban are in control of that country.

As reported by Derek Grossman,

"With a Taliban takeover looming, China received some good news two weeks ago: Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen (left) said in an interview that “China is a friendly country and we welcome it for reconstruction and developing Afghanistan … if [the Chinese] have investments, of course we will ensure their safety.” Moreover, on the sensitive issue of whether the Taliban might support alleged Uyghur militants against China in neighboring Xinjiang, Shaheen noted, “We care about the oppression of Muslims, be it in Palestine, in Myanmar, or in China, and we care about the oppression of non-Muslims anywhere in the world. But what we are not going to do is interfere in China’s internal affairs.” These words were clearly intended to please Beijing, which appears to be starting off on exactly the right foot with the Taliban should the group regain control over Afghanistan. (Foreign Policy News: 21 July 2021) (my emphasis)

This Taliban overture to Emperor Xi of China has rather spiked the political guns of Putin to use the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan against US President Biden and, in so doing, divert his eyes away from Ukraine.

The upcoming Bundestag elections in Germany could pose an even bigger problem for Putin.

As reported by AP,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel expressed full support Sunday for Armin Laschet, the center-right Union bloc’s candidate who is hoping to succeed her as chancellor in this month’s German national election.

Merkel and Armin Laschet

Laschet, who also leads the Christian Democratic Union party, is lagging behind the center-left Social Democrats in the polls. He has received particularly unfavorable reviews after a series of slips on the campaign trail in recent months. " (AP : 5 Sept 2021) (my emphasis)

A Laschet failure to become Chancellor of Germany will slightly .... only slightly ... muddy the political waters between Germany and Putin.

The "bonhomie" that Putin enjoyed between Merkel and himself will be gone.

Or will a new centre-left Chancellor of Germany simply follow in the footsteps of the Socialist Chancellor of Germany from 1998 to 2009, Gerhard Schröder, who is deeply involved in Putin's Gazprom and fully supportive of Putin's political actions in Ukraine.

In which case, the "bonhomie" that existed between Merkel and Putin may actually be further reinforced by the centre-left SDU candidate,  Olaf Scholz. (left)

Olaf Scholz, the Socialists candidate for chancellor  and current German Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor, has a clear lead over other candidates in personal ratings.

For Zelensky, Merkel always covered Putin's economic and political back when it came to Ukraine, especially when it came to Ukraine's Crimea. To a certain extent, Merkel did not hide her tacit support of Putin.

Will an Olaf Scholz (SDU) Chancellorship of Germany also embrace Putin as does Gerhard Schröder?

Like Merkel, Olaf Scholz knows by whom a large slice of Germany's economic bread is buttered viz Putin!

An Olaf Scholz Chancellorship of Germany will NOT stray from the Merkel-Putin economic-political partnership.

Zelensky should not hold his breath that in Germany, things will change in favour of Ukraine once Merkel finally leaves the political stage.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should now ready himself for an unhinged and dangerous Putin.

It is interesting to note that as Angela Merkel, a day after Putin gave her a farewell 'party' in the Kremlin, in one of her rare visits to Ukraine she then moved onto Kiev to have a farewell meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine.

Yet again was she batting for Putin's Nord Stream2 pipeline even as she moves into the sunset of her political life.

 

At her meeting with Zelensky, Euronews reported that,

"I would plead for another meeting at the presidential level or the political leadership level with myself, the French President and the Russian and Ukrainian President. That in my opinion would bring us progress, if we can work out a good agenda - our advisers should do that," Merkel said.  (Euronews: 23 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Euronews further reports that,

"Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he supported the idea of a meeting, but urged western countries to put more pressure on Russia over Crimea.

He said Kyiv is seeking a permanent cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, a prisoner exchange, open crossings at the line of contact and to ensure Red Cross access to the conflict zone.

“As long as there is no progress, the pressure on Russia should continue. We want to see active efforts of our Western partners,” Zelenskyy said." (ibid Euronews) (my emphasis)

During their joint press conference, Zelensky further stated, to the undoubted chagrin of Merkel, that,

"We view this project (Nord Stream2) exclusively through the prism of security and consider it a dangerous political weapon of the Kremlin"

The 'mealy mouthed' response of Merkel that any suspicion that Putin will use Nord Stream2 as a political weapon will call down the wrath of Germany upon his head rather betrays her political disingenuous stand. 

As also reported by  Isabelle Khurshudyan,

"Ukraine had been counting on U.S. measures to halt the controversial project, but in May, the Biden
administration said it had decided against imposing sanctions on the company in charge of Nord Stream 2 in an effort to rebuild relations with Germany.
...
In exchange for an end to U.S. efforts to block Nord Stream 2, the countries agreed that Germany would invest in Ukraine’s green technology infrastructure, and Berlin and Washington would work together on initiatives to mitigate Russia’s energy dominance in Europe. (Washington Post : 19 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Really??? 

For Germany making oodles of money importing Russian gas into the EU via Nord Stream2, Ukraine must be satisfied with a few German solar panel farms to help save the world from global warming, whilst Germany itself accelerates global warming by pumping natural gas into the EU.

Zelensky's response to the Biden/Merkel offer says it all.

"Zelensky said Wednesday that he doesn’t “really have much faith” that all of the commitments of the agreement would be met. Asked if he viewed the pact between the United States and Germany as a betrayal, Zelensky shrugged and smiled.

“Certainly, I’m not happy about this arrangement, if I can call it that, and the format in which it was achieved,” he said." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)

And then we have the issue of Ukraine's Crimea.

Crimea : For FULL discussion see Aljazeera 23 Aug 2021 

Speaking at the Crimean Platform yesterday,

"Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pledged to do all he can to recover the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula and urged international allies to support the effort.

Speaking on Monday at the Crimean Platform, a summit in Kyiv designed to keep international attention focused on Russia’s 2014 annexation, Zelenskyy said Ukraine would use “all possible political, legal and first and foremost diplomatic means” to pursue its goal." (Aljazeera : 23 Aug 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us not forget that the first attempted annexation of Crimea by Russia occurred during the reign of Catherine the Great, that minor German princess who married Russia's Peter III in 1745, and who has a fervent admirer in Angela Merkel, current (just!) Chancellor of Germany.

As Mary Kenny (right) describes it,

"She [Angela Merkel] herself brushes aside notions of "role models", although it has been observed that she has a portrait on her office wall of a particularly strong role model: Sophie von Anhalt-Zerbst, the minor German princess who became Czarina Catherine the Great of All the Russias - enlightened but ruthless in the wielding of imperial power. (Belfast Telegraph : 5 January 2015) (my emphasis)

Even more interesting, as Carolyn Harris writes,

"Catherine risked her reputation in the West as an Enlightened ruler, however, to expand her territory into Ukraine. While Catherine entertained European royalty and thinkers at her court, her armies fought in a war with the Ottoman Empire (modern day Turkey) for control of the Black Sea. ......  Catherine was determined to expand her south eastern frontier and develop a permanent Russian presence on the Black Sea." (Smithsonian Magazine : 4 March 2014) (my emphasis)

If we substitute "Putin" for "Catherine", does this explain why Merkel is always covering Putin's political and economic back? Does Putin remind Merkel of her German political idol, Catherine the Great of Russia? 

Is this why she has allowed the German firm, Siemens, to sell electricity generating equipment to Putin that is now being used in Ukraine's Crimea? 

Aljazeera : 23 Aug 2021

Merkel's current call for another Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Macron, Zelensky, and herself  smacks of nothing less than giving Putin a final and friendly pat on the back, a Putin whom she once described as "living in a dream world of his own" in 2014.

More recently, Zelensky described Putin as,

"As for his feelings about Putin, Zelensky described his Russian counterpart as being “irrational” and “emotional, sometimes even highly emotional.”

“He is too emotional when it comes to Ukraine,” Zelensky added." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)

As the political curtain falls on Merkel, Putin's dangerous political irrationality over Ukraine will know no bounds.

 Zelensky should now ready himself for an unhinged and dangerous Putin.

 (to be continued)

Zelensky is finally using his political capital wisely.

 Finally, Merkel has been hoist by her own petard over Nord Stream2.

 

A small bomb has blown up in the face of Merkel. And the 'small' bomb resides within the 2,135 page of Ukraine's Association Agreement with the EU.

As David M. Herszenhorn  (left) explains,

"It was a bold, bureaucratic retort to a geopolitical provocation that would make the wonkiest, most wizened Brussels civil servant proud: After the U.S. and Germany announced a deal last week on Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 gas project, Ukraine yanked out its 2,135-page Association Agreement with the EU, and invoked two provisions to demand urgent consultations with the European Commission and the German government.
...
A partner nation with hopes of one day joining the EU finally had the chutzpah to stand up and openly demand that its rights be respected by the Commission and Germany, the biggest, most powerful EU member country, rather than being cowed into silence for fear of angering or offending its wealthy Western patrons.

.....according to Article 274 of the 2014 agreement, the EU and its member states are obliged to “consult and coordinate” with Ukraine on energy “infrastructure developments” and “shall cooperate on matters related to trade in natural gas, sustainability and security of supply." (Politico : 26 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As Herszenhorn further points out,

"[Svitlana] Zalishchuk said that in the case of Nord Stream 2, Germany appeared to be violating provisions of the EU's Third Energy Package, a legislative package governing the gas and electricity market that Ukraine adopted as its own national law.

"You cannot demand Ukraine to reform itself in accordance with these European rules and then violate these European rules," she said. "This is bizarre and in particular with Nord Stream 2." (ibid Herszenhorn)

Furthermore, as the FT Editorial Board explains,

"... the Biden administration reached an agreement with Berlin allowing completion of the Nord Stream2 gas pipeline — which poses a serious security and economic threat to Ukraine — in return for flimsy assurances and compensation for Kyiv. The “deal” — in reality, just a statement — does a grave disservice to Ukraine.
...
The agreement is flawed on all levels. Commitments to counter Russian misbehaviour are vague, the green energy fund will not cover Kyiv’s losses, and the offer of German help on extending gas transit is merely a “promise to try”. (Financial Times : 1 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Crucially, the FT Editorial Board further explains that,

"For Washington and Berlin to agree a deal crucial to Ukraine’s interests with no one from Kyiv in the room is a gift to Putin’s narrative that it is fine for big powers to decide the fate of smaller ones. Even the timing, with German elections in September, is odd. It would surely have made sense to engage with Berlin’s next government — likely to include the Greens, who oppose Nord Stream." (ibid FT Editorial Board)

But there is more.

As reported by UNIAN,

"[Putin's Russia] are preparing in advance for the probable scenario of counteracting the certification of the pipeline and the operator, as well as the commissioning of the pipeline. By reducing the supply of natural gas, Gazprom has already provoked record prices for it in the EU in early August - more than $ 500.
...
When the issue of certification and commissioning of PP-2 arises closer to winter, Gazprom will issue an ultimatum - more gas for the EU in exchange for removing all obstacles. Preliminary preparations for an open act of blackmail are already underway." (UNIAN : 3 August 2021) (my emphasis) (google translated)

And another front has opened up in the war between Putin and Ukraine.

As Roman Olearchyk and Max Seddon (left) report,

"A $3.7bn bridge across the Kerch Strait linking Crimea with mainland Russia has become a conduit for trucks ferrying water for locals to take away in plastic containers. Popular Black Sea tourist resorts can turn on their taps for just a few hours a day during peak droughts, while the canal has filled with grass and weeds.

Crimea’s agricultural output has fallen owing to a lack of irrigation, making it all but impossible to grow water-intensive crops such as rice.
...
With tensions rising, Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops and advanced weapons to Crimea this spring, as well as to the border of the two breakaway eastern regions where Moscow-backed separatists have battled government troops into an eighth year." (Financial Times : 29 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As much as US President Biden is trying to gift to Angela Merkel a fully operational Nord Stream2 before she retires into the sunset of political oblivion, this gift is not as easy to bring to fruition as they both first thought.

Zelensky is finally using his political capital wisely.

We now await the Biden-Zelensky meeting that is scheduled to take place at the end of August.

 (to be continued)

Thanks to Biden, Zelensky and Polish Premier Mateusz Morawiecki are now caught in a German political bind.

Finally the mask of President Biden's "unconditional" support for Ukraine in its war with Putin has fallen from his face.

Putinversteher Angela Merkel, who regularly has telephone tête-à-têtes with Putin and who, incidentally, keeps him regularly stocked up with his favourite German beer, have decided among themselves that Nord Stream2 can go ahead.

A "Joint Statement of the United States and Germany on Support for Ukraine, European Energy Security, and our Climate Goals" released by the US Department of State, contains the following :

"We support the energy security of Ukraine and Central and Eastern Europe, including the key principles enshrined in the EU’s Third Energy Package of diversity and security of supply. Germany underscores that it will abide by both the letter and the spirit of the Third Energy Package with respect to Nord Stream 2 under German jurisdiction to ensure unbundling and third-party access. This includes an assessment of any risks posed by certification of the project operator to the security of energy supply of the EU." (US Department of State : 21 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As a sop to Ukraine, Merkel and US President Biden tried to soften this blow to not only Ukraine, but also to Poland, by further stating that,

"The United States and Germany are united in their belief that it is in Ukraine’s and Europe’s interest for gas transit via Ukraine to continue beyond 2024. In line with this belief, Germany commits to utilize all available leverage to facilitate an extension of up to 10 years to Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia, including appointing a special envoy to support those negotiations, to begin as soon as possible and no later than September 1. The United States commits to fully support these efforts." (ibid US Dept. of State) (my emphasis)

As Betsy Woodruff Swan, Alexander Ward and Andrew Desiderio report,

"In the midst of tense negotiations with Berlin over a controversial Russia-to-Germany pipeline, the Biden administration is asking a friendly country to stay quiet about its vociferous opposition. And Ukraine is not happy.

U.S. officials have signaled that they’ve given up on stopping the project, known as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and are now scrambling to contain the damage by striking a grand bargain with Germany." (Politico : 20 July 2021) (my emphasis) 

Amanda Macias CNBC 15 July 2021

If US President Biden's political strategy is an attempt to politically "handcuff" the new German Chancellor that will emerge during this coming September's Chancellorship election in Germany, he may be in for a rather unpleasant surprise.

Let us recall (blog entry 10/04/2018) that a former Chancellor of Germany, none other than Helmut Schmidt, once stated that,

In the newspaper Die Zeit, Helmut Schmidt  said Mr Putin’s annexation of Crimea was not quite “legitimate” but certainly “understandable”. 

Like Putin, who in March of 2017 said that,

"...  the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was purely economic and not directed against other countries, as he met the head of German chemicals group BASF, a potential partner in the project" (Reuters: March 22, 2017),

we also have Angela Merkel, the Putinversteher, arguing that,

“We think this is an economic project. We are also for energy diversification. We also want Ukraine to continue to have transit gas traffic, but we believe Nord Stream poses no danger to diversification,” she said" (Joseph Nasr & Noah Barkin : Reuters : February 16, 2018) (my emphasis)

And then we have Gerhard Schröder (left with Putin), former Chancellor of Germany (1988 - 2005) and currently Chairman of the Nord Stream2 Shareholders' Committee.

Gerhard Schröder was a strong advocate of the Nord Stream pipeline project, which now supplies Russian gas directly to Germany, thereby bypassing transit countries. (Wikipedia)

In 2017, Russia [ read: Putin] nominated Schröder to also serve as an independent director of the board of its biggest oil producer Rosneft. At the time, Rosneft was under Western sanctions over Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis. (ibid Wikipedia)

Zelensky is now caught in a  political cleft stick. 

As reported by Euronews,

"In a joint statement issued on Wednesday night, the countries' [Ukraine and Poland] two foreign ministers, Dmytro Kuleba and Zbigniew Rau (right) called the deal struck "insufficient".

"The decision to build Nord Stream 2 made in 2015 mere months after Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, created a security, credibility and political crisis in Europe," they said. "Currently, this crisis is significantly deepened by the resignation from attempts to stop the launch of the NS2 gas pipeline.

"Unfortunately, the proposals to cover the resulting security deficit cannot be considered sufficient to limit the threats created by NS2. We call on the United States and Germany to adequately address the security crisis in our region, that Russia is the only beneficiary to. Ukraine and Poland will work together with their and partners to oppose NS2 until solutions are developed." (Euronews :22 July 2021) (my emphasis)

There is, politically, very little that either Zelensky or the Polish Premier, Mateusz Morawiecki, can do.

Both are being forced to adapt to the economic and political crumbs being thrown to them by Merkel and US President Biden.

Both Merkel and US President Biden are trying to pacify Putin.

However, like Donald Trump, Putin believes in his 'fantasy' world of Ukraine being merely an extension of Russia ... Novorussia or New Russia, just as Trump believes that he won the 2020 US Presidential election.  

Both Zelensky and Mateusz Morawiecki now await, with trepidation, the outcome of the looming Chancellorship election in Germany.

Neither should hold their breath.

The Putinversteher German political establishment will always come down on the side of Putin.

(to be continued)

Putin's preparation for 'war with Ukraine' is all that he now has left in his political toolbox.

 On 18 June 2021 I wrote that,

"For Zelensky, his upcoming meeting with US President Biden in the White House must now seem like a dream come true. 

As announced by  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba,

"The date of the end of July is being discussed. The visit of the president of Ukraine to the United States. A full-fledged visit... This will be an official full-fledged visit, which envisages not only the meeting with President Biden, but also many other events," he said, adding that a large delegation will go from Kyiv to Washington, and it will have a broad agenda." (UNIAN : 12  June 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky now has the full support of the President of the US, (some?) G7 countries, and NATO, behind his political sails.

Now is NOT the time to try and bargain with Putin." (Blog Entry 18 June 2021)

And more worrying for Putin, as reported by Laura Zhou (right), is the fact that,

"Ukraine could become a “bridge to Europe” for Chinese business, Zelensky told Xi, adding that his country was keen to export more agricultural products to China.

Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s position supporting the unity of China and in return, Xi said China supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian statement." (South China Morning Post :  14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

It is therefore not surprising that, as reported by Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick,

"VLADIMIR Putin could be heading for war with Ukraine as he plots a new land grab of the disputed region of Donbass, experts have warned.

In an article published this week, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as "one people" and said he has "become convinced" that Ukraine "does not need" Donbass.

The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

 What is highly dis-concerting is that,

"Putin ally, [Mikhail Khodarenok] warns that [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

Recall that in April of this year, Putin massed thousands of combat-ready troops on the Russian-Ukraine border. Now these troops are being supplemented by more Russian troops and hardware being built up in Russian occupied Ukrainian Crimea.

South China Morning Post :  14 July 2021

As Anders Åslund (left) observes,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. In his annual call-in show on June 30, he claimed that “Ukrainians and Russians are a single people.” He then published an article aimed at justifying that “conviction,” by tracing the two countries’ shared history. It is a masterclass in disinformation – and one step short of a declaration of war." (Project Syndicate : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Another factor that may have precipitated Putin shaking his "nuclear" fist at Zelensky and at US President Biden and the EU is the fact that,

"Websites for a Russian-linked ransomware gang blamed for attacks on hundreds of businesses worldwide have gone offline.
........
Mr Biden told reporters that he had "made it very clear to him...we expect them to act" on information and also hinted the US could take direct digital retaliation on servers used for intrusions.

The timing of Tuesday's outage has sparked speculation that either the US or Russian officials may have taken action against REvil - though officials have so far declined to comment and cyber experts say sudden disappearances of groups are not necessarily uncommon." (BBC News : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

We may never know whether Putin or US President Biden is responsible for cutting off the cyber-legs of this cyber-gang.

What it does indicate is that US President Biden's making it clear to Putin that,

"Mr Biden told reporters that he had "made it very clear to him...we expect them [Putin and his siloviki] to act" on information and also hinted the US could take direct digital retaliation on servers used for intrusions. (ibid BBC News)"

seems to have had results.

Putin's arrogance in deploying cyber attacks against many countries, besides the US, may now be coming to an end as cyber retaliation from the US is now firmly on the political table. 

Added to which,

"Today, the EU and Ukraine have launched a strategic partnership on raw materials, with the aim of achieving a closer integration of raw materials and batteries value chains. Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič and Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal signed a Memorandum of Understanding underpinning the partnership during the dedicated High Level Conference." (European Commission : 13 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Which, as Anders Åslund observed,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. ...... "

underscoring the 'fantasy world about Ukraine' in which Putin still lives.

Zelensky succinctly countered Putin's 5000 word 'fantasy world about Ukraine'.

As reported by RFERL,

" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has trolled his Russian counterpart, saying he was "envious" that Vladimir Putin had enough free time on his hands to research the history of their peoples.
.........
"I am envious that the president of such a great power can permit himself to spend so much time [writing] such a volume of detailed work," Zelenskiy said.

He said that, despite Putin's mention of "brotherly" populations, Russia's actions had been anything but brotherly.

"It looks more like Cain and Abel," Zelenskiy said." (RFERL : 13 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin's political teeth is being pulled out! All that is now left in his political toolbox is 'war with Ukraine'.

(to be continued)

Zelensky's political skills being put to the test

Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron have finally shown their hand by calling for inviting Putin to an EU leaders' Summit.

As reported by the Financial Times,

"Diplomats said Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, wanted the EU to consider inviting the Russian president to a summit with EU leaders, and that the initiative was supported by French president Emmanuel Macron.

Ambassadors representing Berlin and Paris wrongfooted other EU capitals at a meeting in Brussels on Wednesday by making the new proposals on the relationship with the Kremlin, according to people with knowledge of the discussions.
........
A spokeswoman for the German government, asked whether Germany and France would push for an EU summit with Putin, said: “It is common practice for Germany and France to co-ordinate closely before EU summits and draw up proposals.” But she said she could not comment on the “content of internal decision-making processes”. (Sam Fleming, Valentina Pop, Mehreen Khan and Michael Peel in Brussels, Henry Foy in Moscow and Victor Mallet in Paris : Financial Times : 23 June 2021) (my emphasis) 

Interestingly, 

"The Franco-German initiative came shortly after Moscow said it had fired warning shots including bombs at a British warship in the Black Sea near Crimea." (ibid Financial Times) (my emphasis)         BBC News: 23 June 2021

Now recall that in my blog entry of  11 June I wrote that,

"Yet again does that infamous Treaty of Rapallo in 1922 between Germany and Russia's Lenin raise its ghostly head where, after WW1,

 

" Both governments [Lenin for Russia, and Germany's Chancellor Joseph Wirth] also agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". Secretly, both established elaborate military co-operation but publicly denied it. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 

Fast forward to 2021 and, as reported by Ben Aris (left),

"And Merkel talked with Putin by phone in the same week, who debriefed her on his talks with Biden and waxed on the theme of unity in Europe against common foes, as it is currently the 80th anniversary of the Nazi invasion of the Soviet Union. 

From all the EU leaders, Merkel is probably closest to Putin, as the two meet regularly. Moreover, German has ten times as many of its companies working in Russia and is Russia’s biggest European trade partner, so she also has both major commercial interests and some real leverage over the Russians. As bne IntelliNews recently reported, Russia is almost entirely reliant on imports of machine tools from Europe – predominantly German tools – which are crucial to Russia’s modernisation plans.

At the same time, Merkel is due to stand down as Chancellor this autumn and would like to see her role as moderator between Russia and the EU broadened into a more formal mechanism whereby the EU can speak with a single voice." (bne IntelliNews: 23 June 2021) (my emphasis)

Merkel's successor as head of Germany's CDU, Armin Laschet, is another "Merkel" when it comes to supporting Putin.              Deutchse Welle (DW) 18 June 2021

And why???

As Ben Aris further reports,

"The Russian-German Chamber of Commerce announced on June 23 that almost half of the 3,971 German companies that work in Russia plan to invest several billions of euros in the next 12 months, up from the 30% that said they planned to invest last year. And that investment has kept growing after German companies invested a record €3bn in 2019.  

The survey also found that the majority of German companies that work in Russia (92%) support the cancellation of anti-Russian sanctions, 5% support prolongation of sanctions, and only 3% favour toughening the sanctions. Merkel has been under constant and long-term pressure from her business lobby to make peace with Russia, as it is simply too profitable a market to ignore." (ibid Ben Aris)  (my emphasis)

Zelensky, Poland, and the Baltic States have an uphill political struggle to stem the march of Merkel and Macron towards ridding the EU of its sanctions against Putin.

One should always be reminded that these sanctions were instituted because of Putin's illegal invasion, and annexation, of Ukraine's Crimea, as well as his ongoing war with Ukraine.

For Merkel, with only a few months to go before she vacates the position of Chancellor of Germany, bringing Putin back into the EU political fold is critical for her political legacy and for the German and Russian economies.

And as Merkel vacates her political prominence on the EU political stage, Macron is desperate to take over from her to bolster his chances of winning in next year's French presidential elections.

The next few months will severely test Zelensky's political skills.

(to be continued)