Has Putin outsmarted Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande?

Mogherini

Hardly had the ink dried on the agreement signed by Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande and Putin in Minsk yesterday (12 Feb., 2015) than the 'fragrant' Mogherini pronounced that,

" ...she did not expect European Union leaders to discuss sanctions on Russia at their summit on Thursday after a Ukraine cease-fire was agreed in talks in Minsk. "

"I don't think today we will discuss sanctions," she told reporters after a meeting of Socialist leaders." (The Moscow Times : Feb. 12 2015) (my emphasis)

Angela Merkel

A few hours later, at the summit of European leaders in Brussels (Feb. 12 2015), Merkel announced that,

"The European Union may impose further sanctions if a ceasefire deal sealed in Minsk between Ukraine and Russian-backed rebels is not fully implemented, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande said after an EU summit in Brussels tonight."

"We hold open the possibility, if these new agreements are not implemented, that we must take further measures," she said, adding that existing sanctions could only be lifted when the grounds that led to them are removed.", she said. (RTE News : Thursday 12 February 2015)

Putin and the 'fragrant 'Mogherini

More than anything else, the 'fragrant' Mogherini's press statement, shortly after the signing of the Minsk agreement, indicates just where her sympathies lay viz. with Putin. 

Mogherini is simply being true to her Communist Party roots. It is therefore no wonder that the eastern European countries in the EU were dead againts her appointment as EU Foreign Affairs High Representative.

Poroshenko, who also spoke at the summit of European leaders in Brussels (Feb. 12 2015), urged the delegates to maintain their stance against Putin's invasion of, and annexation of, Ukrainian Crimea, as well as his war on Ukraine. 

Today Ian Pannell reported that,

Ian Pannell

"Intense fighting has been reported in eastern Ukraine, a day after a peace deal was reached in Minsk.

The fiercest battles were over control of the town of Debaltseve, a strategic town in between rebel-held areas." (BBC News Europe : 13 February 2015)

This is simply a confirmation of what Poroshenko told the delegates at the summit meeting on Thursday.

Everyone is highly aware of the fact that Putin simply ignored the Minsk protocols of September 2014. Already his proxies in eastern Ukraine are announcing that any break in the proposed ceasefire, that is to begin on Sunday morning on the 15th Feb. will, automatically, be blamed on Ukraine forces.

Non-one, not even Merkel herself, is fully confident that Putin or his proxies in eastern Ukraine will adhere to the recent Minsk agreements.

"This is a glimmer of hope, no more no less," Merkel told reporters on arriving, straight from the talks in Minsk, at a European Union summit in Brussels. "It is very important that words are followed by actions." (Vladimir Soldatkin and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : Thu Feb 12, 2015)

Even more significantly,

"The White House (read: Obama), under pressure from Congress to provide arms to the stretched Ukrainian military, said the deal was "potentially significant" but urged Russia to withdraw soldiers and equipment, and give Ukraine back control over its border.


"The United States is particularly concerned about the escalation of fighting today, which is inconsistent with the spirit of the accord," it said in a statement.

Jens Stoltenberg

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg echoed that line and told Norwegian news agency NTB: "Russia must end its support for the separatists and withdraw its forces and military equipment from eastern Ukraine." (ibid Vladimir Soldatkin and Pavel Polityuk) (my emphasis)


Putin may, for the time being, bask in his belief that somehow he has outsmarted Merkel, Poroshenko, and Hollande, at their meeting in Minsk.

Indeed, many have pointed out that,

David Blair

" The only reason, after all, for the existence of “Minsk Two” is that Mr Putin ignored “Minsk One”. Yesterday’s agreement amounts to Mr Putin promising once again to keep the pledges that he has already made and broken." (David Blair : The Telegraph : 13 Feb 2015) (my emphasis)

However, unlike the Minsk One agreements that were broken with impunity by Putin, his freedom to simply trample all over Minsk Two is now circumscribed not only by the current sanctions against Russia but, more importantly, by the possibility that in the very near future more sanctions could be applied AND Poroshenko could get the military assistance that for many months he has been calling for.

Added to which, the spin that Putin is putting on Russia being able to withstand those sanctions, as well as the dramatic fall in the price of oil and the rouble, may soon come to haunt him.

However, much will depend on the member states of the EU heeding the call of Poroshenko.

David Cameron has rightly urged,

David Cameron and Petro Poroshenko

"..... wobbling European leaders not to go soft on Vladimir Putin in the wake of a ‘ceasefire’ in Ukraine." (James Chapman and Larisa Brown : Daily Express : 12 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"If this is a genuine ceasefire, then of course that would be welcome,’ he said. ‘But what matters most of all is actually actions on the ground rather than just words on a piece of paper." (ibid Chapman and Brown) (my emphasis)

 No doubt the 'fragrant Mogherini noted that,

Donald Tusk

"This Thursday the European Union warned Russia that it is prepared to introduce new sanctions if Minsk ceasefire agreement is not complied with in Ukraine, as confirmed by President of the European Council Donald Tusk." (Baltic News Network : February 13, 2015)(my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"After the summit, German Chancellor Angela Merkel also stated that new sanctions may be introduced against Russia if the Minsk agreement is not complied with to the full extent.
She added that EU leaders have requested the development of a new package of sanctions for the event of a possible breach of ceasefire in Ukraine." (ibid Baltic News Network) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

For Putin, what is 'hidden' in the 'small print' of the current Minsk agreement?

Whatever transpired between Obama and Putin in the telephone conversation that they had on Tuesday 10th Feb. 2015, we will never know. Neither will we know exactly what Merkel and Obama discussed on Monday in Washington.

What we do know is that the US has yesterday, as part of a Theater Security Package (TSP) deployed,

" .... 12 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft and approximately 300 servicemen to a US Air Force base located near a German town of Spangdahlem as part of a so-called Theater Security Package (TSP), the US Air Force in Europe (USAFE) announced." (Sputnik : 11.02.2015)

This Security Package will then be sent to,

" .... NATO-member countries in Eastern Europe.) (ibid Sputnik)

And today we finally have an agreement that has been reached after 17 hours of negotiations in Minsk.

As reported by BBC News (12 February 2015), this agreement includes:

• Ceasefire to begin at 0001 local time on 15 February
• Heavy weapons to be pulled out from conflict zones, beginning on 17 February and completed in two weeks
• All prisoners to be released; amnesty for those involved in fighting
• Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, weapons and mercenaries from Ukrainian territory. Disarmament of all illegal groups
• Ukraine to allow resumption of normal life in rebel areas, by lifting restrictions
• Constitutional reform to enable decentralisation for rebel regions by the end of 2015
• Ukraine to control border with Russia if conditions met by the end of 2015

What is even more interesting is that Putin himself has publicly spelt out this agreement.

For now we will sit back and examine the small print of this agreement. The issue of 'constitutional reform' is central. Does this mean 'federalization' or simply 'special status' for the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine?

Furthermore, what conditions have to be met before Ukraine, once again, gets control of the border between itself and Russia?

Finally, there is still the question of Ukrainian Crimea that has to be resolved.

(to be continued)

Putin, the Minsk meeting, and the Russian economy (11 Feb 2015)

In my last blog entry yesterday (10-2-2015), I speculated that,

"Putin DOES NOT want to attend this coming Wednesday meeting in Minsk. Why?

Because his mind-set is governed by the "Novorossiya" ideology of his Rasputin, Alexander Dugin.

As he stated in his recent interview in Egypt with the Al-Ahram Daily Newspaper,

" .... in the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership Program there have been attempts to tear states which had been parts of the former USSR off Russia and to prompt them to make an artificial choice "between Russia and Europe." (Kremlin : President of Russia : February 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Having made this statement, can anyone see Putin back-tracking on it?"

Supporting this speculation is the rival agendas that will be presented at to-day's meeting between Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin, in Minsk. As set out by BBC News Europe, (10 February 2015), these are:

          Poroshenko                 Merkel                 Hollande              Putin

•  Ukraine: Restore government authority over breakaway areas, though Donetsk and Luhansk regions could get greater self-rule; disarm rebel forces; withdrawal of Russian troops; restore Kiev's control over Ukraine-Russia border; full prisoner exchange.

• Pro-Russian rebels: Separation from rest of Ukraine and recognition of "people's republics" of Donetsk and Luhansk; no disarmament of separatist forces; amnesty for separatist leaders.

• Russia: Legal guarantees for rights of Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine; full autonomy for Donetsk and Luhansk in a federal system - not necessarily independence; no return of Crimea to Ukraine; withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from combat zone.

• EU and US: Restore Ukraine's territorial integrity; end Russian intervention in eastern Ukraine - withdrawal of all Russian troops and heavy weapons; effective monitoring of Russia-Ukraine border and demilitarised zone between the combatants; full democracy in Donetsk and Luhansk.

This is not an exhaustive list of the items that each of the participants in today's meeting in Minsk may have on their agenda's. Conspicuously left out from the Ukrainian and EU-US agendas above is their insistence on the inviolability of national territorial boundaries, which Russia simply will not accept since Putin will be adamant that Crimea will not return to Ukraine.

The ONLY item that can be agreed upon at this meeting is that in eastern Ukraine a ceasefire between Ukraine, Russia, and Russia's proxies be instituted.

Minsk 2014 borders

Secondly, heavy weaponry of all protagonists be moved 40 miles away from the border that was originally defined by the Minsk protocols of September 2014.

This is the real sticking point, not the ceasefire itself.

Neither Russia nor its proxies will accept that the borders defined in September of 2014 are valid, and that the current borders must be accepted.

February 2015 borders

Added to which, neither will Russia even contemplate the restoration of Kiev's control over the Ukraine-Russia border.

What reason, therefore, will Putin have for attending this meeting?

This can be summed up in three words viz. "the Russian Economy".

Having put on a brave face as the rouble rapidly depreciated, the price of oil nose-dived, and the sanctions that have been imposed on Russia began to take its toll on the Russian citizen as food prices began to spiral up; Putin and his kleptocratic clique are now trapped in an economic cleft stick.

 

Even the Russian middle classes are having to tighten their belts.

As Myles Udland reports,

"In an "optimistic forecast," car sales in Russia could fall just 25% in 2015, though with the Russian economy expected to fall into recession this year as Western sanctions, the collapse in oil prices, and the devalued ruble weigh on the Russian economy, the results could be even bleaker." (Business Insider UK: Feb. 9, 2015)

And as Alanna Petroff reports,

"Escalating violence in Ukraine could lead to new international sanctions, and there's little sign of a significant rebound in world oil prices.
So just how long can Russia avoid complete economic meltdown?" (CNN Money : (London) February 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Olga Ivshina and Oleg Boldyrev report from Moscow,

"Tatyana Volkova is adjusting to a harder life. The single mother lives with her son and daughter, both under 10, in a wooden bungalow provided by the state in Berezniki, a small village outside Yaroslavl.
The local authorities stopped free school dinners last year as part of cuts to social spending and now she, like many other parents, is struggling to find the money to feed them.
"For me it is a nightmare - wage cuts, job cuts," she says. "The government is happy to send aid to the people of Ukraine. But when we ordinary Russians are at our most desperate, we are disowned. It's offensive." (BBC News : 5 February 2015)

And while ordinary Russian citizens are suffering under rising price inflation and the disastrous downturn in the Russian economy, his military is receiving a veritable  avalanche of money to boost the military hardware capabilities of the Russian army.


As reported by Vladimir Isachenkov,

"Most Russian economic sectors face a 10 percent cut this year as Russia heads into recession. The military budget, meanwhile, rose by 33 percent to about 3.3 trillion rubles (some $50 billion).

....Russia's weapons modernization plan envisages spending 20 trillion rubles on new weapons in 2011-2020. It produced some highly visible results last year, with the military receiving the highest numbers of new planes, missiles and armor since the 1991 Soviet collapse:" (The World Post : 4  Feb., 2015) (my emphasis)

But the suffering of the Russian people are as nought for Putin. 

Philip Hammond

As Adam Withnall reports,

"The British Foreign Secretary, Philip Hammond, has accused Russia’s Vladimir Putin of acting like a “mid-20th century tyrant” and warned that he will “pay the price for what he is doing in Ukraine”. (The Independent : Wednesday 11 February) (my emphasis)

And if history has taught us anything it is that tyrants usually have contempt for the people over which they rule.

(to be continued)

Putin will collapse Minsk meeting this coming Wednesday (10 Feb. 2015)

“Look,” said Ms. Merkel, who, like President François Hollande of France, had just returned from hours of negotiations with Mr. Putin, “I grew up in East Germany, and when I was 7 the Berlin Wall was built.”

Nobody expected the West to mount a military attack to bring it down, she said, meaning that East Germans waited 28 more years in “dictatorship and unfreedom” until the Wall came down in November 1989. (AlisonSmale: New York Times : Feb. 8, 2015)

Comparing the Berlin Wall, a physical object, with what is now happening in Ukraine rather says it all about Merkel's attitude towards the invasion of eastern Ukraine, and the annexing of Ukrainian Crimea, by Putin's Russia. Comparing the current annexing of Ukrainian Crimea and the invasion of eastern Ukraine with the building of the Berlin Wall is equivalent to comparing 'apples and oranges' viz. a misleading argument that is rather popular in advertising.

In making this comparison, is Merkel suggesting that Ukrainians have to accept eastern Ukraine being annexed by Putin, and that those Ukrainians already living in Ukrainian Crimea and eastern Ukraine will simply have to endure living under Putin's yoke until he leaves office, probably in 2024?

Even more frightening, this attitude of hers reveals just how deep the "Russland Versteher" (one who 'understands' Russia) has soaked into the minds of Germans from both the left and the right of the German political spectrum, as well as within German industry, thanks to the 1970's 'Ostpolitik' of Willy Brandt.

German business & Ukraine

As The Economist pointed out, "The boards of Germany’s large companies are also well stocked with Russophiles. In March (when Crimea was annexed into the Russian Federation) Joe Kaeser, the boss of Siemens, an industrial conglomerate, met Mr Putin in Moscow and signalled business as usual." (The Economist : May 10th 2014 : Berlin)

 Is it any wonder now that many are beginning to seriously question Merkel's stand over supplying defensive weaponry to Ukraine, as a counter to the flood of sophisticated weaponry entering eastern Ukraine from Russia?

As she says at the press conference with Obama after their breakfast meeting yesterday,

".... on diplomatics initiatives ... And this is going to be continued ..." (C-Span : 9 Feb., 2015)

Even though she admits that thus far all diplomatic efforts to resolve the Ukraine crisis with Putin have failed miserably, nonetheless she continues with her mantra about a 'diplomatic' solution, totally governed by the old saying that,

 "If at first you don't succeed

Try and try and try again"

Meanwhile, the bodies of both Ukrainians and Russians will continue to pile up.

President Obama, on the other hand, is caught in the vice of time, having soon to decide whether to send defensive armaments to Ukraine.

" ... the deadline ..  for the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 to come into FULL effect on the 16th February 2015. This Act mandates Obama into making a decision on sending military hardware to Ukraine since the Act includes the following:

(i) Provisions for training, defense articles, anti-tank weapons, anti-armor weapons, crew weapons, ammunition, counter-artillery radar, fire control, range diner, tactical troop-operated surveillance drones, and other equipment pursuant to the provisions of the Arms Export Control Act – Total of $350,000,000 over three years" (blog entry: 3rd Feb. 2015)

Thus, at the press conference with Merkel he had to state that,

" .... What other means can we put in place to change Mr. Putin's calculus. .. and the possibility of lethal defensive weapons is one of those options being examined ....." (ibid C-Span : 9 Feb., 2015)

Recall that on Sunday last, Merkel, Poroshenko, Hollande, and Putin held a 'Skype-type' conference at which,

"The plan for a meeting Wednesday in the Belarusian capital emerged from a phone call between German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President François Hollande, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. Merkel's spokesman, Steffen Seibert, described the call as “intensive.” (Today's Zaman : February 08, 2015, Sunday)

However Putin also confirmed that,

" ... a summit was being planned for Wednesday in Minsk, but said it might not come about." (ibid Today's Zaman) (my emphasis)

Putin visits Egypt

And on his visit to Egypt yesterday, Putin simply re-iterated his mantra that the US and the EU is totally responsible for what is happening in Ukraine.

"President Vladimir Putin has blamed the US and the European Union for what he called their “expansionist policies” for the crisis in Ukraine." (Euronews : 10 Feb., 2015)

Furthermore, he once again,

" ...... denied direct Russian involvement in the conflict and warned Kyiv to stop its military operations in the east and to hold talks with the rebels." (ibid Euronews) (my emphasis)

Yet again do we see the 'maskirovka' strategy of Putin in action.

Putin DOES NOT want to attend this coming Wednesday meeting in Minsk. Why?

Because his mind-set is governed by the "Novorossiya" ideology of his Rasputin, Alexander Dugin.

As he stated in his recent interview in Egypt with the Al-Ahram Daily Newspaper,

" .... in the framework of the EU Eastern Partnership Program there have been attempts to tear states which had been parts of the former USSR off Russia and to prompt them to make an artificial choice "between Russia and Europe." (Kremlin : President of Russia : February 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Having made this statement, can anyone see Putin back-tracking on it?

 (to be continued)

Putin is simply not ready to commit political suicide (9th Feb. 2015)

Last week's flurry of diplomatic activity culminated yesterday (8/2/2015) in Poroshenko, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin himself, having a 'Skype-type' internet conference, after the inconclusive meeting between the latter three last Friday. This 'internet' conference ended with all four participants agreeing on a face-to-face conference to take place, once again in Minsk, this coming Wednesday (11/2/2015), to try to revive the dead Minsk protocols of September last year.

Merkel arriving in Washington

 After this 'Skype-conference' yesterday, Merkel then jetted over to Washington to meet today with President Obama, and to fill him in on what transpired at the meeting last Friday, and the 'Skype-conference' yesterday.

Sergei Lavrov

As we recall, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, stood in front of the assembled delegates at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday (7/2/2015) and delivered a 45 minute speech, during which he was booed and heckled as he tried to rewrite history in favour of Putin's current mind-set of events past and present. 

As Julian Borger reported,

"The mood at a meeting of leaders and foreign ministers at the annual Munich Security Conference was acrimonious. The Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, was jeered and booed, when he denied Moscow was providing military support to the rebels." (The Guardian : Sunday 8 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Almost immediately after his speech, RT scrambled to 'weaponise' it  by ensuring that the jeers and booes were eliminated from their in-house interpreting of the full speech, which they almost immediately televised. In this RT TV production, Lavrov's voice was powerfully overlaid by that of the 'interpreter', to the extent that one could practically not make out what Lavrov was saying. Even more disconcerting, at the beginning of this excerpt the 'interpreter' says,

" ... and the leaders of Russia, France, and Germany ...."

and yet Lavrov DOES NOT mention these countries. But see and listen for yourselves.

The complete RT version of his speech can be found at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWsR_nkxfAY : This is what Putin's propaganda mouthpiece is spreading all over the world.

Contrast this RT propaganda with an excerpt of Merkel speaking at this conference, with at conference simultaneous interpreting. 

 

Following on from the Munich Security Conference, President Obama and Angela Merkel will today be meeting in Washington. This meeting has, as its backdrop, what was said by both US Secretary of State John Kerry and US Vice-President John Biden at the Munich Security Conference. Both were forceful in proclaiming their support for Ukraine, and in confronting head-on what Putin is really doing in eastern Ukraine, as well as his trampling over international law when he annexed Ukarinian Crimea.

 US Vice-president John Biden at the Munich Security Conference

  

 US Secretary of State John Kerry at the Munich Security Conference

The stand taken by these two men could not have been lost on Putin and his Kremlin cohorts.

More importantly, whilst Obama and Merkel may both agree on not arming Ukraine with defensive weapons against those that Russia has flooded into the areas controlled by his proxies and his Russian soldiers, the words of Biden and Kerry cannot be undone. 

This is Obama's "Kennedy moment". For Obama the clock is rapidly ticking down towards,

" ... the deadline ..  for the Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014 to come into FULL effect on the 16th February 2015. This Act mandates Obama into making a decision on sending military hardware to Ukraine since the Act includes the following:

(i) Provisions for training, defense articles, anti-tank weapons, anti-armor weapons, crew weapons, ammunition, counter-artillery radar, fire control, range diner, tactical troop-operated surveillance drones, and other equipment pursuant to the provisions of the Arms Export Control Act – Total of $350,000,000 over three years" (blog entry: 3rd Feb. 2015)

US Secretary of Defence, Chuck Hagel, rather neatly expressed the predicament that Obama now finds himself in. Increase sanctions against Russia, or bite the bullet and supply Ukraine with defensive weaponry.

US Secretary of Defence Chuck Hagel

No doubt Obama is fervently hoping that the forthcoming meeting on Wednesday between Merkel, Poroshenko, Hollande, and Putin, will pull this chesnut out of the fire for him.

But for this to be done, Putin will have to be appeased with concessions that, under the circumstances, Poroshenko simply will not agree with.

Again, I draw the reader's attention to the geopolitical mind-set of Putin. Putin cannot simply scupper the idea of "Novorossiya", the very backbone of his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his invasion of eastern Ukraine. The 'airwaves of Russia' have been saturated with this geopolitical aim for months on end.

For Putin, even the mere thought of abandoning this aim of his must seem to him like committing suicide. And Putin is simply not ready to commit 'political' suicide.

(to be continued)

Putin standing at the abyss of igniting total war (7 Feb 2015)

It was to be expected that the talks yesterday between Putin, Angela Merkel, and Hollande would fail, even though Merkel and Hollande,

" ... [offered] Putin federalization and non-alignment of Ukraine in exchange for peace .." (Unian Information Agency : 06.02.201)

"German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung earlier wrote that there was the possibility of concessions being made to the Russian-backed militants, including territorial ones." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

                Putin                               Merkel                               Hollande

Now, even Francoise Hollande has finally come to the realization that,

"....the consequences of [the continual] fighting [in eastern Ukraine are] serious. "If we fail to find a lasting peace agreement, we know the scenario perfectly well... it is called war."" (James Reynolds : BBC News Europe : 7 February 2015) (my emphasis)

Speaking today at the Munich Security Conference, Merkel simply had to concede that trying to fill the FAILED Minsk Agreement with life is simply uncertain. As she says in the BBC midday News Broadcast today, Sat. 7 February 2015, 

"..I'm saying it's uncertain whether the talks will be crowned with success ..."

BBC midday News  7 Feb. 2015

 

More critically, it is finally dawning upon many that inceasing sanctions will simply embolden Putin to accelerate the flow of Russian soldiers and arms into eastern Ukraine to continue to extend the Ukrainian territory under the control of his proxies and his invading army.

Thus even NATO is now having to consider arming the Ukrainians.

General Philip Breedlove

"NATO's top military commander, U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove signalled that he now wants the alliance to consider sending weapons to Ukraine."( Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin : Reuters : Sat Feb 7, 2015)
 
NATO is now moving closer to the position of the US viz. that it is becoming more and more inevitable that Ukraine now needs to be supplied with sophisticated military equipment to counter the Russian equipment flooding into eastern Ukraine.

Many in the EU are now coming to the conclusion that,

"Putin is ...  a reckless gambler who calls bluffs and takes risks, and is inscrutable, paranoid and unpredictable. Trying to work out what he wants is guesswork." (Ian Traynor : The Guardian : Friday 6 February 2015) (my emphasis)

If, as also reported by Ian Traynor,

Carl Bildt

"Carl Bildt, the former Swedish foreign minister, said a war between Russia and the west was now quite conceivable."

[is] it therefore any wonder that the Europeans now sound scared? (ibid Ian Traynor) (my emphasis)

Senator Lyndsey Graham

U.S. Senator Lyndsey Graham seems to have the measure of the fear of Putin now being expressed by many EU politicians.

"Speaking after Merkel at the Munich Security Conference today, U.S. Senator Lyndsey Graham, a Republican hawk, praised the chancellor for her engagement in the crisis but said it was time for her to wake up to the reality of what he called Moscow's aggressions.

"At the end of the day, to our European friends, this is not working. You can go to Moscow until you turn blue in the face. Stand up to what is clearly a lie and a danger," Graham said.

He accused Merkel of turning her back on a struggling democracy by rejecting down Kiev's request for arms. "That is exactly what you are doing," he said." (ibid Stephen Brown and Noah Barkin) (my emphasis)

The sheer contempt that Putin has for this sudden flurry of diplomacy in the EU, regarding the current situation in eastern Ukraine, is signified by the fact that,

• "Russian President Vladimir Putin marked the one-year anniversary of the start of the Sochi Winter Olympics [today] (The Associated Press -As reported in The Telegraph-Georgia : February 7, 2015)
• Putin is demanding that a large tract of eastern Ukraine, taken by force by his separatist proxies in recent weeks, be granted internationally licensed autonomy and that a new frontline be recognised as a basis for a putative ceasefire. (ibid Ian Traynor)

Perhaps an even more significant indicator of Putin's contempt for both the EU and the US is the fact that,

"Eastern Ukraine has become a testing ground for Russia's new military capabilities." ( Keir Giles : BBC News Europe : 6 February 2015) (my emphasis)

A rebel Strela-10 air defence system on the streets of Donetsk

A rebel Grad rocket system is deployed at a cemetery

                             Only Russian soldiers can operate these sophisticated systems!

Merkel, Hollande, and especially Italian PM Matteo Renzi, even though they are members of NATO, are manouvering themselves into a position of 'neutrality' should a war between Russia and the west be set alight by Putin, as Carl Bildt speculates may happen. Putin's aim of destroying the EU would then have been successful.

Furthermore, the rift between the US and these central EU countries would become unbridgeable. 

In one fell swoop Putin will create a reality out of the geopolitical dream that he shares with his Rasputin, Alexander Dugin viz.
"The new Eurasian empire [that] will be constructed on the fundamental principle of the common enemy: the rejection of Atlanticism, strategic control of the USA, and the refusal to allow liberal values to dominate us. This common civilizational impulse will be the basis of a political and strategic union." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

 
Is this what Putin has in mind? 
Is it this that is determining his current state of mind and shaping his actions?
Unlike Khruschev, will Putin actually press the 'nuclear' button? 

Or will he, at the eleventh hour, step away from the abyss of total war, as that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, hinted at yesterday. (cf. BBC News Video above)



(to be continued)

Putin, Merkel, and Hollande meeting to-day in Moscow (6 Feb. 2015)

When Wolfgang Schäuble, German Finance Minister, last year compared Putin to Hitler,

Wolfgang Schäuble

" ... on the basis that both men forcibly seized whole chunks of other countries’ territories based solely upon the utterly illegitimate predicate of ethnic comradeship " (James Kirchick : FP : February 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

he was rounded upon

" ...  by all sectors of German media and politics as an uncouth barbarian trampling upon Germany’s sacred debt to honor its wartime history. Their number included no less a figure than the Chancellor [Angela Merkel] herself ..." (ibid James Kirchick) (my emphasis)

This German reaction to the truism that Wolfgang Schäuble expressed stems, primarily, from the susceptibility of the German public to Russia's propaganda machine because of a misplaced sense of guilt towards Moscow.

But, as Yale Professor of History, Timothy Snyder, has pointed out,

"The vast majority of Ukrainians who fought in the war did so in the uniform of the Red Army. More Ukrainians were killed fighting the Wehrmacht than American, British, and French soldiers -- combined. In Germany these basic facts are invisible because the Red Army is seen falsely as a Russian army, an identification insisted upon by the propaganda of today’s Russia." (Frankfurter Allgemeine : Freitag, 06. Februar 2015) (my emphasis)

This salutory fact of the Ukrainians that died during WWII seems to have been somewhat lost on the German public and, more particularly, on Merkel herself.

Those Germans who rounded upon Wolfgang Schäuble for simply telling the truth should have a sense of guilt about what they did to the Ukrainians during WWII, instead of just lumping them together with Russian soldiers by virtue of the fact that the Ukrainian soldiers also wore Russian uniforms.

And today, Angela Merkel carries with her that misplaced sense of guilt towards Moscow when she and Hollande will meet Putin today to carve out a so-called peace deal that will be in favour of Putin and against the interests of Ukraine. Yet again has Putin's trojan Minsk proposals succeeded in expanding the growing gulf between the US and the EU on how to support Ukraine against the Russian army invading their country.

 This sudden flurry of diplomatic 'urgency' on the part of Merkel and Hollande has, in no doubt, being brought about by the possible imminent supply of arms to Ukraine by President Obama.

BBC News Broadcast 5th February 2015

 Senator McCain, in particular, is under no illusions that without supplying Ukraine with the necessary military equipment with which to confront the expanding Russian military presence in eastern Ukraine, Putin will ultimately be able to have his land-bridge between Russia and 'annexed' Ukrainian Crimea, together with annexing eastern Ukraine itself.

BBC News Broadcast 5th February 2015

 

Mindful of how Putin is militarising eastern Ukraine, and is poised to fully invade Ukraine with his large army camped on the border between Russia and Ukraine, NATO has created a 'spearhead' defence force to protect the vulnerable NATO countries of Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Rumania, and Bulgaria against Russian forces. It is the biggest defence reinforcement of NATO since the Cold War.

Yet even with respect to NATO, Merkel seems to be singing from the same hymn-sheet as Putin.

"Not only has Merkel opposed NATO supplying weapons to Ukraine, she has also gone so far as to oppose the stationing of NATO forces further east on the territory of the alliance’s newer members so as to reassure them in the face of the new Russian aggression. To justify this stance, she has formulated a dubious interpretation of a clause in the 1997 NATO-Russia Founding Act on Mutual Relations, which stated that NATO would not station “permanent” forces in the new member countries in the “current and foreseeable security environment.”" (ibid James Kirchick)

If Merkel is dancing to the tune of the German public's wide and deep sympathy for Russia (Russland-Versteher, or “Russia understander), then Hollande is simply marching to the tune of the Socialist and Radical Left Party in France. After all, it was they who nominated him as their candidate in the 2012 French presidential elections.

Where the sympathy of the Germans for Russians stem from WWII, the French have always had a starry-eyed view of Russia since the times of Catherine the Great. Added to which, of course, there is all that trade between France and Russia.

Thus, the meeting to-day in Moscow between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande is really a sort of 'fraternal meeting' between 'comrades in arms'.  Putin will play on Merkel's guilt, and on Hollande wanting to get those billions for those warships sold to Russia, and that are still hanging about in a French port, thanks to sanctions.

                Putin                                   Merkel                            Hollande

But what about Putin himself?

Enter Russia's Ultra Nationalist, Alexander Dugin, who functions as Putin's Rasputin.

Alexander Dugin

Putin's mind-set will be encompassed by Dugin's philosophy, which was the driving conceptual force behind his initiative for the annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation.

Dugin's philosophy,

" ... focuses on the restoration of the Russian Empire through the unification of Russian-speaking territories, which roughly corresponds to the former Soviet republics, such as Georgia and Ukraine, and unification with Russian-speaking territories, especially eastern Ukraine and Crimea" (Wikipedia)

With this in mind what, exactly, does Merkel and Hollande think that they will achieve at today's meeting with Putin? A ceasefire in eastern Ukraine? A handover of Crimea back to Ukraine?

As the old saying goes, "Pigs will fly".

(to be continued)