Putin is beginning to lash out in desperation

At this year's (2016) Munich Security Conference,

"... Russia's official delegation will be led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev — the message seems to be that Russia is ready to talk about sanctions relief." (Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Feb. 11 2016)

Furthermore, that,

"Official Russian foreign policy positions in Ukraine and Syria have not changed since Lavrov was laughed off stage last year. But Moscow has been forced to show flexibility in finding a solution to its standoff with the West.
The reason for the softening of Russia's position is simple: the nation is experiencing its worst economic crisis since 1998, and Western sanctions are part of the problem. Consumers and companies are in desperate need of relief from the recession." (ibid Matthew Bodner) (my emphasis)

This more 'flexible' stance of Putin should, however, be taken with 'a very large pinch of salt'.

Recall that as recently as Feb. 01 2016, Merkel categorically stated that,

"We still don't have a sustainable cease-fire, which is naturally a prerequisite for the implementation of different points in the Minsk agreement," Merkel is reported as saying. " (Moscow Times :  Feb. 01 2016)

Furthermore, that,

"....Merkel has ruled out lifting EU sanctions against Russia before full cease-fire is implemented in eastern Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday." (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

What, therefore, has prompted Putin to send his glove-puppet, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, as leader of the Russian delegation to the Munich Security Conference, to talk about 'sanctions relief'?

 Could it be, as Sergey Aleksashenko (left), a former deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, contends that,

"Russia’s economic crisis is worse than Moscow admits and that the Kremlin’s optimism about future prospects "has not been based on reality."
....
Russia is experiencing a series of negative trends that, by his estimate, dragged down Russia’s GDP by 9 percent in 2015.
  ...
Russia’s state statistics agency said GDP fell by only 3.7 percent last year. Aleksashenko called that a "statistical miracle" that "does not reflect the real problems." (Dragan Stavljanin and Ron Synovitz : RFE/RL : February 13, 2016)

And whilst Putin's glove-puppet, Medvedev, wants to talk about 'sanctions relief' in Munich,

" Three Ukrainian servicemen have been killed and seven wounded in fighting with pro-Russian separatists in the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday, reporting the highest daily casualty toll since mid-November." (Natalia Zinets and Alessandra Prentice : Reuters : 16 Feb. 2016)

Even more disconcerting, Thomas Gibbons-Neff (right) reports that,

"In addition to the fighting, there has been “circumstantial evidence” that Russia is rearming the separatists, according to Lamberto Zannier, the secretary general of the OSCE." (Washington Post : February 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

This re-arming of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine comes amidst a deepening political crisis in Kiev that,

"...threaten[s] the Minsk ceasefire agreements, whose full implementation (which was initially planned for December 2015) had already been pushed back to an uncertain date this year." (The Guardian : Tuesday 16 February 2016) (my emphasis)

Whether this crisis will be resolved within the next few days remains uncertain. The tenacity with which Ukrainian oligarchs are clinging to power and corruption cannot be underestimated. They have much to loose and nothing to gain if the fight against corruption in Ukraine is accelerated.

Putin may be rubbing his hands with glee at this political crisis in Ukraine. But not for long!

Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative and his military expenditure could simply not be matched by the then Soviet Union.

In the words of the Vatican's Secretary of State, Agostino Cardinal Casaroli,

"Ronald Reagan obligated the Soviet Union to increase its military spending to the limits of insupportability." (Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein : The Atlantic Online : 1994)

Now, as Sergei Guriev reports,

"There is now no question that the Kremlin's military spending is threatening Russia's fiscal position, which has already been undermined by low world oil prices and the West's economic sanctions. And this spending spree shows no sign of slowing. In recent months, growth in military expenditure has accelerated rapidly, exceeding the authorities' already ambitious plans." (Moscow Times : May. 19 2015) (my emphasis)

This has to be viewed against the backdrop of NATO increasing its military footprint, especially in eastern Europe.

Putin's military adventures in Georgia, Ukraine, and now in Syria, may have reinforced his image of himself as the Czar that is regaining Russia's international prestige after the fall of the Soviet Union.

However this 'single-minded' political ambition of his has led to a Russian economy that teeters on the brink of implosion and, as a consequence, he now has to surround himself with "oprichniki" to suppress people or groups opposed to him.

As Vitaly Portnikov explains,

“As long as [Putin] was bold and energetic, as long as oil was at 120 US dollars a barrel and even his military adventures did not lead him to an immediate collapse, the president could allow himself the Ivanovs, the Shoygus, the Narshkins, and the Patrushevs.”

            While they were prepared to serve the supreme leader, they were also credible in their own eyes and in others as successors, Portnikov suggests, and thus they constituted a potential threat to Putin in his eyes – and thus he has moved in the direction of his predecessors by elevating the incompetent or the outrageous (or both at once) to his inner circle." (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : 5 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Re-arming his Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, and digging himself deeper into the Syrian quagmire, are the actions of a desperate man.

(to be continued)

 

Putin is teetering on the edge of an abyss of his own making. Is he going to take the plunge?

"Russia is holding combat readiness exercises involving 8,500 troops, with dozens of ships and aircraft, in a southern region near areas of eastern Ukraine held by pro-Russian rebels.

The snap drill in the Rostov region was ordered by President Vladimir Putin. (BBC News : 9 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Russian troops which are stationed in Crimea as well as forces in the North Caucasus and southwestern regions near the border with Ukraine have been put on combat alert. (Alalam : Tuesday, February 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

Can it be any co-incidence that whilst Putin is preparing his troops for combat readiness on the border of eastern Ukraine,

"Western diplomats now fear peace efforts in Syira have been doomed by a Russian military push that has shored up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's hold on power. The Kremlin-backed Syrian army advanced toward the Turkish border on Monday in a major offensive backed by Russia and Iran." (UT : Feb. 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

The critical link between what Putin is doing in Syria and putting his forces on combat readiness in Crimea and the eastern Ukrainian border is, as Judy Dempsey (left) states,

"Putin’s campaign in Syria is deepening the [EU] refugee crisis and making Angela Merkel’s position increasingly insecure. A weakened Merkel means a weakened European Union ... (EU News : 09 Feb 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Paul Carrel,

"Berlin is growing increasingly suspicious that Russia is trying to stir up trouble in Germany to try to weaken Merkel, who has taken a tough line on a crisis that was triggered when Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014." (Reuters : Wed Feb 3, 2016) (my emphasis) 

And suddenly, the media is now awash with speculation that Putin is,

"...grooming an action man ‘military hero’ in his own image as his heir apparent, according to speculation in Moscow.

Deputy defence minister Alexei Dyumin (right), 43, was this week handed the job of governor of Tula region, as previously unknown details of his ‘courage’ were suddenly leaked to the media.

He was formerly a bodyguard and Putin’s trusted aide-de-camp while also playing goalkeeper in the Kremlin strongman’s own ice hockey club." (Will Stewart : Daily Mail : 6 February 2016) (my emphasis) (cf also: National Post : DNAIndia : War News Updates)

In my blog entry of 4/2/2016 I wrote that,

"Putin's current moves in Ukraine, Germany, and in Syria, are beginning to display a sense of desperation on his part.

To maintain his growing and precarious hold on power in Russia he is finally toying with the 'war' card to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their growing impoverishment by arousing within them a dangerous nationalism."

That his Deputy Defence Minister is now being viewed as his possible successor seems to mirror his own rise in popularity on the back of the Moscow apartment bombings in September of 1999, and his subsequent war against Chechnya that he started in October of 1999.

Just as Putin now seems to have 'thrown caution to the wind',  Robert Hackwill reports that,

"Once a village, Stanitsa Luhanska became an outlying city district of Luhansk and home to 15,000 before the war.
.....
It is one of the main crossing points between Ukraine and the self-styled Luhansk Peoples’ Republic for divided families, and those doing business.
“We want to know when this mess will be over, Ukraine is here and Ukraine is there, we want to know why they have been cut apart. Why do we have to go through this check point with Ukrainian passports? I am Ukrainian, my children are Ukrainians and they are not guilty of letting some terrorists grab power here. The Ukrainian army should go and free us from those terrorists!”(EuroNews : 9/2/2016) (my emphasis)

Adding to the desperation of the inhabitants of eastern Ukraine now having to suffer under the military rule of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, some of Putin's Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine are now being returned to their mothers in body-bags

"42 Russian servicemen have been killed on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine since the beginning of the year. That is according to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.

Ukrainian intelligence says the soldiers were a part of the 1st and 2nd army corps of the Russian forces stationed in the occupied Donbas territories." (UT : Feb. 9, 2016)
 
Putin is teetering on the edge of an abyss of his own making.

Is he going to take the plunge?

(to be continued)

Putin's Syrian gambit, and his build-up of forces on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Stepping into the abyss?

The resignation of Ukrainian Economy Minister, Aivaras Abromavicius (left), has brought to the fore the clarion call of the Maidan protestors of 2013 that corruption within Ukraine had to be rooted out and a 'new', uncorruptible, society and parliament be established.

In the words of Ukrainian Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatseniuk (right),

" ... ideally all ministers and their deputies should not have been in politics prior to the 2013/14 Maidan uprising, which ousted a president under whom oligarchs wielded huge political influence and state firms were milked." ( Natalia Zinets and Alessandra Prentice : Reuters : Fri Feb 5, 2016) (my emphasis)

 Echoing Arseniy Yatseniuk we have Ukraine's Finance, Minister Natalie Jaresko (left), stating that,

" ... there is a need for: "unconditional support of the reform program; the program of cooperation with the IMF, including the need to urgently pass laws that will ensure transparent privatization; no political interference in the change of the management of the top 60 state-run enterprises on the basis of an independent nomination committee, and de-politicization of the State Fiscal Service." (Interfax Ukraine : 06.02.2016) (my emphasis)

The political upheaval casued by the resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius is also having its repercussions in the EU.

As reported by Robin Emmott,

“If Ukraine doesn’t come through with the reforms linked to the Minsk peace process, it will be very difficult for Europe to continue united in support for sanctions against Russia,” Kristian Jensen (right) [Denmark’s foreign minister] told Reuters, referring to the peace deal agreed by Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany last year."
.....
Sanctions expire in July and can be extended.

But countries with a closer relationship with Russia including Cyprus, Italy and Hungary could argue that if Ukraine is not abiding by the Minsk peace deal, the process no longer holds. (Euro News : Reuters, 05/02/2016) (my emphasis)

This argument that Ukraine is not abiding by the Minsk2 deal simply ignores the fact that, as stated by Roman Bessmertnyi (left),

"[The] plan to link free and fair elections in Donbas to greater autonomy is unrealistic. Ukrainian members of the Minsk Trilateral Group say their Russian counterparts in the talks on January 27 delivered a proposal for ending Russian's invasion of east Ukraine.

The plan, dubbed 'The Steinmeier Formula,' provides for elections in Donbas and amending the Constitution of Ukraine to grant autonomy for the militant-held areas." (UT : Jan. 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

The ORDER of Protocols 9 - 12 of the Minsk2 agreement specifically states that:

1. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
2. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
3. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote, by the end of 2015.
4. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR. (Wikipedia)

Putin has NOT implemented protocols (1) and (2). He has neither withdrawn his Russian soldiers, nor his military equipment, from the rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. Neither has he returned the border between Ukraine and Russia back to the Ukrainian authorities. 

And yet Cyprus, Italy, and Hungary are once again clamouring for an end to EU sanctions against Russia.

Why is there such a deafening silence from them over Putin's non-implementation of the Minsk2 proposals (1) and (2) outlined above?

Is this because, as reported by Reuters in Brussels,

“[A] US official said Russia used fewer precision-guided munitions [in Syria] than the US and its allies.

The Russian strikes [in Syria] that are not precise cause me great concern because I think there is an indirect correlation to the refugee flow,” the official said. “It is not just the pressure it is putting on Nato and the EU, it is also the humanitarian cost.”(The Guardian : Saturday 9 January 2016) (my emphasis)

Are events in Syria now becoming inextricably intertwined with events in Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Has Putin bitten off more than he can chew?

There is a 'perfect storm' gathering over Ukraine.

The 'boyars' of Yanukovich, left in the lurch after he fled into the arms of Putin, are beginning to feel the increasing heat of the clamour against the corruption and 'theft', coming from the Ukrainian people, the US, and the EU., under which they amassed their ill-gotten fortunes.

As  Mikheil Saakashvili has also suggested,

" ... Ukraine could elbow the ultrarich from politics by cleaning up state-owned enterprises.

 

“You can just cleanse them of their oligarch manager and basically destroy or abolish this joint stock company of oligarchs that is what they see, what they regard, as Ukraine,” he said. (Andrew E. Kramer : New York Times : Feb. 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

This 'cleansing of Ukrainian state-owned enterprises of  oligarch managers' has been further underlined by,

"Ukraine's economy minister Aivarus Abromavicius (left)  [who] has resigned in protest at the slow pace of reform in the country.

He said he did not want to provide "cover" for widespread government corruption." (BBC News : 3 February 2016) (my emphasis)

This head of steam, bubbling up against the corruption in Ukraine, threatens to critically split the Poroshenko government.

 

And standing on the sidelines we have Putin, rubbing his hands in obvious glee.

So much so, that he has given the 'green light' to his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine, to trample once again all over the Minsk2 agreements.

It is therefore no wonder that, as reported by UNIAN,

 

"Ukrainian officials are reporting up to 71 attacks a day, with most of the fighting concentrated around the separatist-held cities of Donetsk and Gorlovka [Horlivka in Ukrainian], as well as the countryside east of the Azov port city of Mariupol." (The Daily Beast :UNIAN : 03.02.2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly, it is no co-incidence that, as Paul Carrel reports,

"Russia was building up its military presence on the border with Ukraine, [Poroshenko] said.

"The danger of an open war is greater than last year," Poroshenko told Bild, in an interview published in its Wednesday edition. "Russia is investing a great deal in war preparations."
 

 Merkel pressed Putin by phone on Tuesday to use his influence to ensure that a ceasefire is upheld in Ukraine and that monitors from the OSCE European security organization are granted free access to conflict areas, her spokesman said." (Reuters : Wed Feb 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

Paul Carrel further reports that, 

"Berlin is growing increasingly suspicious that Russia is trying to stir up trouble in Germany to try to weaken Merkel, who has taken a tough line on a crisis that was triggered when Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014.

German officials say Moscow hopes to destabilize Europe and create a vacuum into which it can project its own power." (ibid Carrel) (my emphasis) 

This 'divide-and-rule' tactic of Putin is best exemplified by the fact that,

"Bavarian Premier Horst Seehofer (below left) on Wednesday called for an easing of Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia "in due course," ahead of a controversial meeting with President Vladimir Putin at his residence outside Moscow.
 

"We want to make an honest contribution to the rebuilding of trust and normality in a difficult political environment," the head of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party said later during his talks with Putin." (DPA : About Croatia : Wed, 03/02/2016) (my emphasis)

 It is also exemplified by the fact that,

"With the Syrian government intensifying its assault on rebels in Aleppo, the United Nations formally suspended faltering peace talks in Geneva Wednesday and appealed to the big powers to prod their Syrian proxies to end the fighting.

The move came hours after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov delivered a blunt message to the peacemakers seeking to silence the guns in Syria. Lavrov made it clear that Moscow — which has provided extensive military assistance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — has no intention of pausing a barrage of airstrikes in the rebel-controlled areas around the cities of Aleppo and Homs." (John Hudson & Colum Lynch : FP : February 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's current moves in Ukraine, Germany, and in Syria, are beginning to display a sense of desperation on his part.

To maintain his growing and precarious hold on power in Russia he is finally toying with the 'war' card to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their growing impoverishment by arousing within them a dangerous nationalism.

As Poroshenko told Bildt,

""The danger of an open war is greater than last year," (ibid Paul Carrel)

And this war may not only involve Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Is Putin's foreign minister, Lavrov, loosing his mind?

Natalia Zinets reported on 24th January, 2015, that,

"Ukraine will not give its eastern regions greater autonomy until a lasting ceasefire with pro-Russian separatist rebels is in place, President Petro Poroshenko said on Sunday, in comments that could antagonize the rebels and the Kremlin." (Reuters : January 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Yet, as repotrted recently on RU Expatica,

"Poroshenko accused "Russia and its proxies" of failing to observe the ceasefire, and of some 1,200 shellings in January alone.

Observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are denied access to the border, he said, adding that "this is not surprising as Russia still supplies troops, heavy weapons and ammunition to Donbass over the border and does not want witnesses to these illicit activities."
(RU Expatica : 1 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Even Angela Merkel, who apparently has a portrait on her desk of Russian empress Catherine the Great, the Prussian-born princess, is now openly 'bemoaning',

"...the lack of progress between Ukraine and Russia to implement the initial terms of their peaceful political agreement.

Fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian troops in the country’s eastern Donbas region has continued, despite political arrangements to implement a cease-fire and hold local elections in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, Ms. Merkel said before a closed-door meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Berlin on Monday." (Zeke Turner : Wall Street Journal : Feb. 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

Yet once again we have that 'dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet' foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, screaming from the rafters that,

"Ukraine is dragging its feet on implementation of the Minsk peace agreement because its wants to keep in place the Western sanctions imposed on Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday." (Reuters : Tue Jan 26, 2016)

 Now recall that on the 29 January, I posed the following question:


"Will Putin withdraw his Russian soldiers and military equipment from the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine if the Steinmeier Formula of granting autonomy to these rebel-held territories is implemented?"

This is precisely the question that Lavrov simply ignores. Indeed, one could go so far as to say that Lavrov seems to have developed something of a "blind spot" over this issue, very similar to the "blind spot" that he has developed of being a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 that stipulated,

"According to the memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the UK confirmed, in recognition of Ukraine becoming party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in effect abandoning its nuclear arsenal to Russia, that they would:

1. Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty and the existing borders.
2. Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
4. Seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, "if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.
6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

(LiveLeak)

Added to which,

 

 

"Two Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the country's war-torn east where government forces are seeking to put down a pro-Russian insurgency, the first reported casualties in nearly three weeks, Ukraine's military said Sunday." (Yahoo News : January 31, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

It is not Poroshenko who is "dragging his feet in implementing Minsk2".

Rather, Sergey Lavrov should avert his eyes towards his boss, Vladimir Putin, before making such "foot-in-mouth" statements.

(to be continued)

Putin's economy on the verge of being bailed out, at the expense of Ukraine.

There are ominous developments in the air.

Suddenly the EU, US, and Canada are all pushing Ukraine towards a compromise with Putin.

The tri-lateral group (pictured below: Kutchmna (Ukraine), Gryslov (Russia),  and Special Representative of the OSCE) that met in Minsk on 27th January have come up with, what they call,

" 'The [Putinversteher] Steinmeier Formula,' [which] provides for elections in Donbas and amending the Constitution of Ukraine to grant autonomy for the militant-held areas." (UT : Jan. 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time, Mike Blanchfield reports that,

"[Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Stephane] Dion (right) said Canada remains a steadfast friend of Ukraine, but will be open to talking to Russia because it could serve Canada's needs, including in the Arctic where the two countries have shared interests.

"Today, the United States is speaking to Russia. Europe is speaking to Russia. Japan is speaking to Russia," Dion said.  (CBC News : Jan 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

And coming out of the woodworm to support Stephane Dion we have none other than that 'dyed-in-the-wool Soviet' foreing minister, Lavrov himself!

As reported by Susan Ormiston,

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reached out Tuesday to the new government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau while decrying the government of Trudeau's predecessor Stephen Harper as "Russia-phobic."
.....
Lavrov said Russia "was stunned by the absence of pragmatism" as Canada followed the "blatant interests of the Ukrainian diaspora ignoring Canada's national interests."
 .....
Russia looks forward to new relations with Canada, Lavrov said." (CBC News : Jan 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

Recall that as early as Sep. 21, 2015,

"European Union Foreign Policy Chief Federica Mogherini has joined Angela Merkel of Germany in calling for local elections in the wartorn east of Ukraine to be held under Ukrainian law, after Russian-backed militants suggested they would hold their own independent elections." (UT : Sep. 21, 2015)

This position of the EU in September of last year does not quite square with the current 'Steinmeier Formula' that specifically states that the Ukrainian contitution must be changed to grant autonomy for the militant-held areas in Donbas.

Of what value, therefore, would it be to hold elections in this 'autonomous' region of Ukraine?

If the region becomes 'autonomous', even within Ukraine itself, it follows logically that this 'autonomous' region should then determine HOW elections within it are held.

For the 'fragrant' Fedrerica Mogherini and Angela Merkel to say that any elections in this new 'Steinmeier' autonomous region must be within Ukrainian law is totally illogical.

This is precisely the strategy employed by Putin and his 'glove puppet' Medvedev, when Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, supporting the 'breakaway' Georgia regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. (Wikipedia)

And it is now coming to fruition in Ukraine.

So why is the EU, the US, and Canada suddenly coming to the aid of Putin?

They simply cannot afford Putin's economy to implode!

Like the bailout of the US and EU banks during the economic crisis of 2007-2008, which threatened the collapse of large western financial institutions and, 

" ....  which was prevented by the bailout of banks by national governments, but stock markets still dropped worldwide." (Wikipedia),

we now have call for the lifting of sanctions against Putin being near identical to the bailout of banks in 2007-2008, that prevented a worldwide 'depression'. 

And the price of  Putin's  economic bailout is on the heads of Ukrainians.

Roman Bezsmertnyi (below: left), who represents Ukrainian members of the Minsk Trilateral group, correctly stated that,

"... the implementation of the [Steinmeier] plan was written in Moscow and is unrealistic.

 Bezsmertny said statements by his Russian counterparts at the Minsk talks are tantamount to "political weaseling." (UT : Jan. 28, 2016)

Furthermore, the UT report states that,

"Leading Ukrainian parliament deputies from the largest pro-presidential and pro-government factions have for weeks said that it is impossible to hold democratic elections in Donbas until combined Russian-separatist forces withdraw themselves and their weapons from Ukraine." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

Will Putin withdraw his Russian soldiers and military equipment from the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine if the Steinmeier (right) Formula of granting autonomy to these rebel-held territories is implemented?


Go ahead little piggies ... Fly ... Fly ... Fly


(to be continued)

Is Putin being let off the hook of a crumbling economy, at the expense of Ukraine?

In my blog-entry of 4th January, I stated that,

"This relationship between Hollande and Putin no doubt 'coloured' Hollande's input during the recent Skype meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko and Putin, regarding the full implementation of Minsk2.

Bear in mind also that Merkel opened the doors of Germany to hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees fleeing from Assad's war against his people, even though she initially received much 'flak' from many political quarters in Germany. (Deborah Cole : AFP (Yahoo News): 15 December 2015)

As I stated in my last blog entry,

"From this [Skype Conference held on 30 December, 2015] one can only deduce that the hidden agenda of Merkel and Hollande is to get sanctions against Russia lifted!

 

Watch this hidden agenda unfold as the New Year progresses."

Suddenly, since yesterday (25 Jan. 2016), a veritable 'chorus' has erupted, from John Kerry to the French Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron to the German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, and to that 'dyed-in-the-wool" Soviet foreign minister Sergei Lavrov, that sanctions against Putin's Russia could soon be lifted.

As Gregory Viscusi, Ian Wishart, and Kambiz Foroohar report,

"The worsening of crises from Syria to Libya are forcing the international community to reconsider sanctions slapped on President Vladimir Putin’s government over Ukraine as a way of getting a key diplomatic power broker on board. Of late, a flurry of senior officials from the U.S. and the European Union have suggested a thaw is within reach." (Bloomberg Business : January 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble (right) wrote in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper Monday that the EU should forge closer ties with Russia to help resolve the civil war in Syria and reduce tension in the Middle East between Sunni and Shia Muslims.

That came on the heels of Economy Minister Emmanuel Macron (left) telling his country’s businessmen in Moscow that France would like to see sanctions lifted by the summer.

“[John] Kerry (right) is holding the possibility of lifting the sanctions but Russia has to do certain things, like cooperate on Ukraine and Syria and then the U.S. would reverse some sanctions,” said Mark Katz, a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia. (ibid Viscusi, Wishart, and Foroohar) (my emphasis)

These developments come close on the heels of that 'secret' meeting between Victoria Nuland and Vladislav Surkov (left) held on Jan. 15 in Kaliningrad.

As Lucian Kim reports,

" ... Their six-hour “brainstorming” session, Surkov later told Russian journalists, touched on the thorniest issues of Ukraine’s tenuous peace process and proved both “constructive and useful.” (Reuters : January 25, 2016) (my emphasis)

In yesterday's blog entry (25 Jan. 2016) I wrote that,

"Is the ghost of Catherine the Great, that German "daughter of Prince Christian of Analt-Zerbst, a small German principality", [who] at "15 years old, [was selected by] Empress Elizabeth of Russia to be the wife of her nephew and heir, the future Emperor (Czar) Peter III, of Russia, and who "annexed Crimea "in violation of the Peace Treaty of Kϋϛϋk Kaynarca.", hovering over Angela Merkel? (Crimea Historical Society)
 

Is it not ironic that the two Germans, Catherine the Great and Angela Merkel, are giving Crimea to Russia, the first by conquest, and the second by ..... political expediency?

Is it therefore any wonder that Poroshenko is now putting Crimea back on the agenda, expecting to,

".... bring the Russian-occupied part of eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea back under government control by the year’s end."? (KyivPost :  Jan. 14, 2016)"

And today we have that 'dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet' foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, pronouncing that,

"There is nothing to return, we are in talks with no one on Crimea's return. Crimea is Russian territory in full conformity with the expression of will of Crimea's peoples," he said at a news conference dedicated to the results of 2015, TASS wrote." (UNIAN : 26.01.2016) (my emphasis)

This sudden eruption of calls to

• lift sanctions against Russia as a sort of 'payback' to Putin for coming on side in the Syrian conflict, and
• Lavrov's sudden outburst about Ukrainian Crimea being "Russian territory in full conformity with the expression of will of Crimea's peoples"

cannot be co-incidental.

Which rather also poses the question,

"Will this sudden call for the lifting of sanctions apply exclusively to those sanctions implemented when Putin started his war with Ukraine in the Ukrainian Donbas region, or will it also INCLUDE those sanctions imposed on Putin and his cronies over his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea?"

Those now clamouring for the lifting of sanctions are NOT making this distinction.

This is why Lavrov is now hastily pre-empting Poroshenko's strategy to bring,

"... Crimea back under [Ukrainian] government control by the year’s end." (KyivPost :  Jan. 14, 2016)"

But perhaps the most significant aspect of this call to lift the sanctions against Putin and his cronies, is the fact that, finally, the international community has been made aware of the corrupt and kleptocratic nature of Putin himself. 

And this is the man that is now being let off the hook of his country's collapsing economy, a country's from which he has plundered billions of dollars.

(to be continued) 

Is Putin being bought off with Crimea?

BBC News reported today (25/1/2016) that,

• "Russia's economy contracted by 3.7% in 2015, according to preliminary figures published by the country's statistics service.
• Retail sales plunged by 10% and capital investment fell by 8.4% in the economy's worst performance since 2009.
• Even pro-Kremlin media now admit that the country is facing a full blown economic crisis.
• Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned earlier this month that the fall could force Russia's 2016 budget to be revised." (BBC News : 25 January 2016)

By contrast, Holly Ellyat (left) of CNBC reported from Davos (cf: also James Quinn : Daily Telegraph) that,

"Despite rampant inflation and only a recent recovery from recession, Ukraine will be able to eke out modest growth in 2016, Ukraine's finance minister told CNBC Thursday.
 ....
Natalie Ann Jaresko [Ukraine Finance Minister] told CNBC on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.

"We've turned the corner and I think this year, we're looking to see growth and even if it's slight growth, it's growth. Coming out of a recession, restoring stability and providing new jobs and new consumer purchasing power to the people (is the aim)." (CNBC : Thu, 21 Jan '16)(my emphasis)

We now have to ask ourselves the following questions.

(1) Why is the so-called leader of the eastern Ukraine rebel held area of Donetsk,
      Alexander Zakharchenko (right) once again,

• "[refusing] to hold a local ballot in accordance with Ukrainian law
• [banning] the participation of any Ukrainian parties in future local elections [in the rebel held area of Donetsk]"? (UT : Jan. 24, 2016)

(2) Why has the French Finance Minister, Emmanuel Macron, stated on a recent visit to
      Moscow  that,
 

"The goal that we all share is to be able to lift the sanctions this summer because the (Minsk peace) process will have been respected," Macron told French business executives during a visit

to Moscow."? (Yahoo News (Moscow (AFP)) : 25 Jan. 2016) (my emphasis)

But perhaps, most important of all,

(3) Why has US Secretary of State, John Kerry, just last Friday (22 Jan. 2016)

"....held out the prospect of lifting the sanctions if the Minsk agreement is implemented in full.

"With effort and with bona-fide legitimate intent to solve the problem on both sides, it is possible in these next months to find those Minsk agreements implemented," Kerry said in a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland."? (ibid Emmanuel Macron) (my emphasis)

The statements of Emmanuel Macron and John Kerry throws into sharp relief

• the unbridgeable gulf that has grown between Putin and his proxy, Alexander Zakharchenko, in the rebel-held Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine, 
• as well as the possible understatement of Putin's economic woes by so many western economic pundits, woes that can be ameliorated if sanctions against Russia are lifted.

Poroshenko, however, still has to convince the Ukrainian parliament (the Rada) that the implementation of points 3 & 9 of Minsk1 viz.

• Decentralisation of power, including through the adoption of the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts".
•  To ensure early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts". (Wikipedia)

has to take place if the Minsk2 agreement is to be fulfilled, and an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine be brought about.

But these are the sticking points for many in the Ukrainian Rada.

To appease his critics in the Rada, President Poroshenko stated that,

"Ukraine will not give its eastern regions greater autonomy until a lasting ceasefire with pro-Russian separatist rebels is in place, President Petro Poroshenko said on Sunday, in comments that could antagonise the rebels and the Kremlin." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters:  Sun Jan 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Poroshenko added that,

"Another condition is giving international monitors unfettered access to the border between Ukraine and Russia to monitor the flow of troops and arms into eastern Ukraine." (ibid Natalia Zinets) (my emphasis)

However he also warned that,

"Those political forces that want to torpedo the Minsk agreements at any cost...and to block the constitutional process, must clearly understand the consequences of their actions," he said.

"They will lead to the resumption of the 'hot phase' of the conflict, including a full-scale -- and not local, as it has been so far -- conflict with Russia," he added. (RFERL : Monday, January 25, 2016) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Poroshenko's warning, Diane Francis (right) of the Financial Post reports that,

“If Ukraine collapses, another migration of a few million people to the EU will occur,” said financier George Soros during the panel discussion [at Davros].

“The German finance minister [Wolfgang Schaeble (left)] proposed an EU-funded Marshall Plan to help with its migration issues. That should include funds to help pay for Ukraine’s important role in defending Europe against Putin.” (The Vancouver Sun : January 24, 2016)

Yet we have John Kerry and Emmanuel Macron being rather upbeat about the FULL implementation of Minsk2 within a few months from now.

In other words, they envisage

• a full and sustainable ceasefire between Ukraine and Putin's rebel-proxies,
• the implementation of a "temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts",
• early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law (and under international supervision) "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", and
• the giving to international monitors unfettered access to the border between Ukraine and Russia

within a few MONTHS from now. 

The critical condition of Poroshenko that international monitors have "unfettered access to the border" now controlled by Putin, and that Kerry and Macron seem to believe that this will be implemented a few months down the line, is either wishful thinking on their part, or the fact that Putin has decided to 'throw in the towel' and completely abandon his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine.

For John Kerry and Emmanuel Mecron to expect Putin to 'throw in the towel', without him losing face, seems simply to be 'too good to be true'. 

Now recall that on Apr. 27, 2015, 9 months ago, Angela Merkel stated that, 

"The decision by all heads of states [during the European Council meeting in March] means that the duration of the sanctions is related to completing the Minsk agreements of February this year. " (UT : Apr. 27, 2015) (my emphasis)

However,

"... Merkel's comments did not clarify whether Russia's ongoing illegal occupation of Crimea was tied to maintaining sanctions. The EU, US and other western nations imposed sanctions on Moscow last year following their seizure of Ukrainian territory." (ibid UT) (my emphasis)

Is the ghost of Catherine the Great, that German "daughter of Prince Christian of Analt-Zerbst, a small German principality", [who] at "15 years old, [was selected by] Empress Elizabeth of Russia to be the wife of her nephew and heir, the future Emperor (Czar) Peter III, of Russia, and who "annexed Crimea "in violation of the Peace Treaty of Kϋϛϋk Kaynarca.", hovering over Angela Merkel? (Crimea Historical Society)

Is it not ironic that the two Germans, Catherine the Great and Angela Merkel, are giving Crimea to Russia, the first by conquest, and the second by ..... political expediency?

Is it therefore any wonder that Poroshenko is now putting Crimea back on the agenda, expecting to,

".... bring the Russian-occupied part of eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea back under government control by the year’s end."? (KyivPost :  Jan. 14, 2016)

(to be continued)