Putin's Minsk2 strategy implemented in Syria, and his EU supporters

Now that the 'surprise' over Putin allegedly,

" ... [calling] Syrian President Bashar Assad on Monday to inform him that a troop withdrawal would take place the next day ..." (Pamela Engel : Business Insider : Mar. 14, 2016)

has died down, a more sober reflection of Putin's troop withdrawal from Syria reveals that far from him wishing to 'support' the Syrian peace initiative in Geneva, Putin's Minsk2 strategy over Ukraine is being used as a template by Bashar Al Assad in Geneva.

As reported by Tom Perry,
 
"[Syrian] Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem (right) confirmed his government's participation [in the Geneva Peace Talks] but said the talks would fail if the opposition had "delusions that they will take power in Geneva that they failed to take in battle"." (Reuters : Sat Mar 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly with Minsk2,

"German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier blamed both sides [Russia and Ukraine] for a lack of progress he said threatens to blow up into a military escalation.

“Sometimes I have the impression that Moscow and Kiev are oblivious to how serious the situation is,” Steinmeier told reporters in Paris. “The truth is that the positions of the parties to the conflict are far apart.”  (Gregory Viscusi  & Daryna Krasnolutska: Bloomberg Business : March 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that the West was similarly "surprised" when Putin invaded, and then annexed Ukrainian Crimea. Let us also recall that the invasion and takeover of Crimea was planned by Putin as early as 2003, long before the Maidan revolution took place.

So why, now, is Putin allegedly pulling his troops out of Syria?

Is it, as suggested by Andrew Osborn, that,

"The real mission, some say, was to give Russia a say in world affairs.
In the space of six months it has gone from being a pariah state in the West because of its annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Kremlin rebels in eastern Ukraine to being the go-to partner over Syria. Once spurned by Western leaders, it is now a regular interlocutor for both Washington and EU leaders."? (Japan Times (Reuters) : Mar 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

Osborn further reveals that in Syria,

"Putin has in any case hedged his bets.

If he feels his newfound global influence or Assad is threatened he can use the two military bases left behind to rapidly expand the Kremlin’s military footprint." (ibid Osborn) (my emphasis)

In Putin's rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine the same Putin strategy is being employed.

Putin cannot allow the current border between Ukraine and Russia, that is now under his FULL control, to revert back to Ukrainain control since it would directly threaten his ability to continue to destabilise Ukraine and, more importantly, will diminish his current 'strong-man' posture that he has so assiduously cultivated both within Russia and on the international stage.

Gregory Viscusi Jonathan Stearns & John Follain also suggest that,

"European officials have insisted there’s no link between the sanctions imposed on Russia over Ukraine and the Kremlin’s intervention in Syria.

Russia’s move to scale back military support for President Bashar al-Assad is about to test that resolve." (Bloomberg Business : March 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Already, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini (left with Lavrov), the EU’s foreign policy chief, is expected soon to pay Putin a visit.

" ... [e]arlier in the day, another EU source told reporters that the bloc's foreign ministers had discussed during EU Foreign Affairs Council [14 March 2016] the preparations for a possible visit of Mogherini to the Russian capital, but the final decision was pending." (Sputnik : 14.03.2016)

Now recall that in January of last year, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, in a discussion paper (pdf),

" .... suggested EU states could re-engage with Russia on global diplomacy, trade and other issues in return for gradual steps to defuse the crisis over Ukraine." (EurActiv : 15-01-2015) (my emphasis)

However,

"One diplomat from an eastern European country, which counsels against the EU showing weakness toward Moscow, said the paper appeared to reflect an eagerness on the part of countries such as France and Mogherini’s native Italy to set aside the dispute over Ukraine in order to revive profitable business with Russia." (ibid EurActiv) (my emphasis)

Kadri Liik expressed concern about her paper, writing that,

"The most worrying problem with the paper is that it betrays a profound lack of understanding of the driving factors of Russia’s foreign policy and their relative importance." (ECFR : 20th January, 2015)

And at the recent meeting of EU Ministers of Foreign Affairs on 14 March 2016, the 'fragrant' Mogherini expressed delight that the meeting was,

" ... not focussing on sanctions [against Russia], for once ...." 

Is it any wonder that Robin Emmott and Gabriela Baczynska report that,

"Tellingly, after a long discussion, sanctions were not discussed by foreign ministers, partly because the debate was chaired by Mogherini to avoid exacerbating the divisions."

"While EU governments last week extended asset freezes and travel bans on Russians and Russian companies, there is less consensus on whether to prolong more far-reaching sanctions on Russia's banking, defense and energy sectors from July.

"We cannot take for granted any decision at this stage," Italian Foreign Minister Paolo Gentiloni told reporters after a meeting with his EU peers in Brussels, where Russia's EU policy was discussed for the first time in more than a year." (Reuters :March 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

Hungary, Italy, and Greece are in the forefront of stressing Russia as a trade-partner. This triumvirate have always been soft on Putin, as is the 'fragrant' Mogherini herself. 

To even suggest that she may pay Putin a visit, "...when the EU is demanding that Russia release Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko, who is on a hunger strike, on humanitarian grounds (ibid  Robin Emmott and Gabriela Baczynska) rather indicates on which side her sympathies lay.

Yet just last Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said that,

"Today Russia faces a choice between the continuation of economically damaging sanctions and fully meeting its obligations under Minsk,". (ibid Robin Emmott and Gabriela Baczynska)

 Why, therfore, was the 'fragrant' Mogherini so pleased that sanctions against Putin and his cronies were not discussed at the recent EU Ministers of Foreign Affair meeting?

  

(to be continued)

Putin cannot be saved by that 'Putinversteher', German Foreign Minister Walter Steinmeier, the new OSCE Chairperson-in-Office

Last week, NATO's top commander, General Philip Breedlove, warned that,

".... Russian military activity in eastern Ukraine is increasing.
...
General Philip Breedlove also warned of ‘disturbing trends' – including more sniper fire and shelling on the front line."Now what I would tell you is in the last couple of weeks this has changed in the activity along the line of contact is very much increase" (UT : Mar. 2, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"A UN official has called for effective border controls to stop the suspected flow of weapons into Ukraine from Russia.

Addressing a press conference in Geneva after presenting a UN report on the human rights situation in Ukraine Thursday, Gianni Magazzeni highlighted the fact that "humanitarian aid" trucks entering Ukraine from Russia were not being inspected for illegal arms." (World Bulletin : 04 March 2016) (my emphasis)

Let us now recall that on 15 February 2016, the Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu (right) said that,

"Ukraine was one of the backbone countries for stability in the Eurasia region.

The premier [also] said that Turkey sees the importance of stability and territorial integrity of Ukraine. He noted that Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Syria remained under threat by Moscow." (World Bulletin : 04 March 2016) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no coincidence that,

 

"Ukraine and Turkey’s navies launched a joint military exercise on Monday, as Kiev and Ankara continue to grow closer in the face of their respective stand-offs with Russia." (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 8/3/16) (my emphasis) 

 

And whilst Turkey and Ukraine are currently conducting joint naval exercises, 

"NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Ukrainian Minister of Defence Stepan Poltorak met on Tuesday (8 March 2016) for talks on Ukraine’s progress in moving forward with key defence reforms and how NATO can best support this effort. (NATO News : 08 Mar. 2016) (my emphasis)

Richard Tomkins also informs us that,

" Ukraine's Ukroboronprom's Mayak business unit has delivered its initial batch of new 120mm Molot mortars to the country's military." (UPI : March 7, 2016)

But the most powerful western military signal that is being sent to Putin, in the face of his 'stealth' buildup of forces in occupied eastern Ukraine, lies in the fact that,

"The U.S. Army plans to bolster its presence in Europe next year with the long-term deployment of its best armor, tank-killing helicopters and infantry vehicles capable of destroying Russian armored personnel carriers.

The service will increase the prepositioning of combat equipment that soldiers surging from the U.S. could use in a crisis, as the U.S. and NATO work to deter an assertive Russia in the aftermath of President Vladimir Putin’s intervention in Ukraine." (Anthony Capaccio : Bloomberg Business : March 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

Unlike two years ago, when Putin invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea and then had his Russian soldiers invade the territory of eastern Ukraine, without the west immediately arming the then rag-tag Ukrainian army, the situation has now somewhat changed.

The Ukrainian army has now become a formidable force, even in the face of not being supplied with lethal weaponry from the west. It is now backed up and supported by NATO, the EU, Turkey, and Canada, to name but a few. 

Even the UN is now calling for the effective control of the border between Russia and Ukraine to stem the avalanche of Russian weaponry that is once again flowing into the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine.

Why, therefore, is Putin now siding with German Foreign Minister, Walter Steinmeier, and  French Foreign Minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault (left), over the immediate implementing of the Minsk2 elections in the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine, even though Russian arms are flowing across the Ukrainian border that is still being controlled by Putin and his forces?

Could it be that Putin rests easy as his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine are being supplied with more heavy weaponry because his Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier is now the OSCE Chairperson-in-Office, the very OSCE that has to monitor both the 'ceasefire' AND the border between Russia and Ukraine?

Is Steinmeier's 'shrill' call for the immediate implementation of the Minsk2 elections directly related to the fact that Natalie Jaresko (left), Ukraine’s US-born finance minister, could during this week become the new Ukrainian Prime Minister?

"[She] has held talks on leading a new technocratic, reformist government amid intense high-level political manoeuvring.

Ms Jaresko was offered the prime minister’s position more than 10 days ago by representatives of President Petro Poroshenko and Arseny Yatseniuk, the current premier. Both offered the support of their parliamentary parties and freedom from interference, said people familiar with the matter." (Neil Buckley and Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : March 8, 2016) (cf. also: Ukraine Today)

Ms Jaresko would be more than a match for Putin's mouthpiece, that 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, and even against Walter Steinmeier himself. 

Putin will, no doubt, use her appointment as propaganda efforts to portray Kiev as a puppet of Washington. 

But the effects of his propaganda machinery is on the wane. No longer is the international community sucked in by the slickness of Russia Today (RT). Ironically, his military adventure in Syria, aiding and abbeting the Assad regime, has taken the shine off his billion dollar propaganda apparatus.

This is best illustrated by the international outcry over Nadezhda Savchenko, who told a Russian court today that,

" .... her trial was a farce and that Russia was ruled by “a totalitarian regime and a dictator-tyrant.” The outspoken Ukrainian military pilot, held in Russia since 2014, spared no blows as she used her final statement to warn she would return to her home country dead or alive.
...
"I want the whole democratic, civilized world to understand that Russia is a third world country with a totalitarian regime and a dictator-tyrant who spits on human rights,” Savchenko told the court" (Howard Amos : International Business Times : 09/03/16) (cf. also: Mail Online)

P

(to be continued)

Germany and France selling out eastern Ukraine to Putin

Vitaliy Portnikov wrote on 25th February that,

"Putin has failed to achieve the federalization of Ukraine through war. Now he wants to achieve it through peace." (EuroMaidan Press : 2016/02/25) (my emphasis)

Putin’s crony Viktor Medvedchuk (left: with Putin) [.......] spoke not about the implementation of the Minsk agreements but about the “spirit of Minsk.”

"The “spirit of Minsk” is a model for the coexistence of the Russian controlled regions of the Donbas with the rest of Ukraine. It consists of bringing in a new government into the “people’s republics” with which (Ukrainians) could talk without being accused of dealing with militants. Medvedchuk calls this proposed new command for the Donbas a “temporary government,” but it can turn out to be the first step in the transformation of Ukraine into a real federation." (ibid EuroMaidan Press) (my emphasis)

This being the case, is it any wonder that Putin is suddenly,

"....prepared to support the election proposal presented by Germany and France"?
 .....
French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, who described the four-hour meeting [last week between the foreign ministers of France, Russia, Germany, and Ukraine] as "frank, direct, and without holding back," announced that the talks had underlined the importance of adopting an electoral law to hold elections in Ukraine's eastern Donbas region in June. (RFE/RL : March 04, 2016)

 However,

"Klimkin said Ukraine continues to insist that all commitments for a cease-fire and withdrawal of weapons be carried out before such elections are held.
"We must be able to ensure these elections are organized safely; we need our territory to be secure. Without security we can't deliver on anything further," Klimkin added." (ibid RFE/RL) (my emphasis)

And whilst 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeier, and  French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault are pushing for the holding of elections in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine by June of this year, thus supporting Putin's Maskirovaka strategy strategy of stealthily 'federalising Ukraine, UNIAN reports that,

"The combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 57 times in the past 24 hours, including 46 times in the Donetsk sector and 11 times in the Mariupol sector, the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) reported on Friday." (UNIAN : 04.03.2016) (cf. also: UNIAN : 06.03.2016) (my emphasis)

Even the UN is expressing concern that,

"The risk of re-escalation of hostilities remains high, the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine said in its report." (UNIAN : 03.03.2016) (Full UN Report) 

 

Why, therefore, if Putin is now siding with Steinmeier and  Jean-Marc Ayrault over the holding of elections in the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine, is he continuing to build a Russian military base on the Russian border close to Ukraine's Kharkiv region?

And one has to ask the further question;

Were Walter Steinmeier and Jean-Marc Ayrault aware of the fact whilst they were siding with Putin's 'dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet' foreign minister Sergei Lavrov that,

"Military clashes between the Ukrainian military and the enemy sabotage groups occurred in the Mariupol direction resulting in 30 pro-Russian militants being killed, according to the presidential administration’s speaker for the Anti-Terrorist Operation, Andriy Lysenko, who spoke at a briefing Saturday."? (UNIAN : 05.03.2016)

 

What is even more significant is that French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (right) seems to simply dismiss US diplomat, Daniel Baer, who represents Washington at the OSCE, and who stated that,

“combined-Russian separatist forces” in east Ukraine, in the run-up to the Paris talks, escalated fighting to its “highest level since August 2015” and that Russia “continues to flout” Minsk provisions on withdrawing troops and armour. 

“This violence … calls into question Russia’s and the separatists’ commitment to full implementation of the Minsk agreements,” he said. " ( Andrew Rettman : EuObserver : 4 March 2016) (my emphasis)

 

And whilst Steinmeier and Jean-Marc Ayrault continue to support Putin in his call for quick elections in the rebel held territory of eastern Ukraine,

"When Russian-backed forces seized public buildings in eastern Ukraine, unleashing the ongoing conflict, many Ukrainians thought the crisis would not last very long.  Two years later, with western sanctions and two peace agreements failing to stop Russia’s intervention, the war continues and many of those displaced see little hope that they will get to go home anytime soon." (Luis Ramirez : VOA : March 03, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

And lest we forget,

"About 2,000 people rallied on Independence Square in Kiev on Sunday to demand that Russia release Ukrainian pilot Nadezhda Savchenko, with hundreds then marching to the Russian Embassy to vent their anger by throwing eggs and rocks at the building." (AP (Mail Online) :  6 March 2016)

(to be continued)

Putin being given breathing space

Luis Ramirez rather neatly sums up the current frustrations boiling over in Ukraine. He reports that,

"The Ukrainian government this month narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, and frustrations are showing early signs of boiling over again as patience wears thin among those who want corruption and economic disparity gone quickly, and for good." (VOA : February 26, 2016) my emphasis)

Those internal Ukrainain frustrations have their growing international counterparts as well.

For the first time even the Chinese are publicly calling for international support for a political settlement of the war between Putin's Russia and Ukraine. As reported by the  Xinhua News Agency,

"A Chinese envoy to the United Nations Monday highlighted the importance of political settlement in solving the Ukraine issue and called for support from the international community.

A comprehensive solution of the Ukraine issue must follow the general direction of political settlement, said Liu Jieyi (left), China's permanent representative to the UN at a Security Council meeting briefed by the Chairperson-in-Office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). (BruDirect : Tuesday, 01 March 2016) (my emphasis)

Liu, however, is hedging China's call by not wishing to ruffle Putin's feathers, nor wanting to jeopardise China's huge investments in Ukrainian agricultural land.

Liu thus added that

".... it is imperative to fully take into account the legitimate rights and demands of all regions and ethnic groups within Ukraine while paying good attention to the legitimate concerns of all relevant parties." (ibid Xinhua News Agency) (my emphasis)
 

Meanwhile, that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier, continues to pressure Ukraine to hold those Minsk2 'elections' in Putin-controlled eastern Ukraine, whilst yet again simply glossing over the fact that such elections would be totally meaningless unless :-

• Ukraine, together with the OSCE and possibly the UN, are in full control of the border between Russia and Ukraine to prevent a flood of Russians entering eastern Ukraine and then claiming that they are residents of Ukraine
• such elections to be held according to Ukrainian law 
• a strict system of identification of valid Ukrainian electors should be put into place so that Putin's thousands of 'little green men' currently in eastern Ukraine cannot palm themselves off as valid Ukrainian citizens  
• Putin's rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers (who would no doubt by then have divested themselves of their 'little green men Russian uniforms) should not hinder any Ukrainian canvassers or candidates from freely having access to ALL of the territories of eastern Ukraine that Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers now control
• these elections should be held under the watchful eyes of an army of international observers, including EU observers

Bearing these five elementary points in mind, is it any wonder that,

"Speaking at a news conference in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Frank-Walter Steinmeier conceded that the readiness of the government in Kiev and pro-Russian separatists to move forward with Minsk was "very limited". (Noah Barkin : Reuters (Yahoo News) : 1st March, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that, 

"Kiev's struggles to get an election law for eastern Ukraine through parliament and an increase in ceasefire violations in the region have raised fears that the deal, sealed one year ago in the Belarus capital, could collapse, sparking a new wave of fighting."? (ibid Noah Barkin) (my emphasis)

Andreas Umland (right) perceptively reports that,

"Obviously, neither Russian aggression nor economic difficulties should excuse the Ukraine government’s slow pace of reforms. 

Ukraine’s friends should continue to press Kiev hard for cleaner government and deeper economic reform. 

But the West should recognize that the country’s exhausted civil society and its beleaguered administration are operating in an environment of exceptional stress and myriad distractions. 

Western leaders and policymakers must thus maintain the pressure on Moscow to abandon its reckless hybrid war. Had Russia respected the sovereignty, integrity, and European choice of its “brother nation,” we would, already today, have a very different Ukraine." (Foreign Policy : February 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

It would seem, however, that from Christine Largarde (Head of the IMF) witholding IMF money for Ukraine, to vice-president Biden, to Walter Steinmeier, to President Hollande; the pressure is being placed on Poroshenko to implement Minsk2 to the mutual exclusion of pressure being placed on Putin to do likewise. 

In fact, the pressure on Putin is so lukewarm that he can simply sit back and let the west do his job of dismembering Ukraine and ensuring that Ukraine's political structure fails.

And yet the EU is, during this Ukraine Week, vowing its support for Ukraine.

"This 3-day high-level conference is bringing together MEPs, national and Ukrainian MPs to share experience on good parliamentary practice, law-making and representation.
 

The event "demonstrates strong solidarity between the European Parliament and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine", said Mr Schulz. "You need our support and you will receive it." (EU Parliament : 01-03-2016) (my emphasis)

And then we have the EU caveat that,

"However recommendations to reform the VRU should not be put into the filing cabinet, but implemented", he added." (ibid EU Parliament)

But I shall let Vitali Klitschko have the last word.

(to be continued)

Putin, Ukraine, Syria, and ....... Jamala

Olga Tanas (below) informs us that,

"With employers already hunkering down after oil’s collapse and the crash in the ruble to record lows last month, the prolonged downturn is giving way to adjustments in the labor market that are further squeezing household finances. As expectations fade for a quick turnaround after the biggest drop in consumption under President Vladimir Putin, the challenge for authorities is how to contain discontent without further straining the budget before parliamentary elections later this year." (Bloomberg Business : February 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly, on the international front, Neil MacFarquhar reports that,

"The partial truce that Russia and the United States have thrashed out in Syria capped something of a foreign policy trifecta for President Vladimir V. Putin, with the Kremlin strong-arming itself into a pivotal role in the Middle East, Ukraine floundering and the European Union developing cracks like a badly glazed pot.

Beyond what could well be a high point for Mr. Putin, however, lingering questions about Russia’s endgame arise in all three directions." (New York Times : Feb. 23, 2016) (my emphasis)

These lingering doubts include:- 

• Mr. Assad, who has grown bolder because of Russian and Iranian support, recently said he planned to reassert control over all of Syria.....That would put Russia in the unpredictable position of supporting Damascus through the long, most likely bloody slog needed to dislodge the Islamic militants. (ibid  Neil MacFarquhar) (my emphasis)
• Another wild card for Moscow is its increasingly hostile relationship with Turkey, after a Russian warplane was shot down in November after briefly violating Turkish airspace. (ibid  Neil MacFarquhar)
• The Russian economy is in dire straits, as described by Olga Tanas, and no matter how much Putin may try to gloss over this fact, Aleksandr Shumilin, a senior Middle East expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences, warns that whilst Putin may be feeling a 'flush of success' over  his strategy in Syria, this feeling of 'success' “will depend on the situation, which is very complicated at the moment” and which could add a further and unacceptable drain on the already faltering Russian economy.

These lingering doubts over Putin's endgame in Syria are further complicated by the fact that,

"US President Barack Obama [  ] told Russia's Vladimir Putin on Monday about the importance of "permitting... the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) full access to the conflict area, including the international border." (Beatrice Le Bohec : AFP (Yahoo News) : 23 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which, even that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier (right), has had to admit that,

"... it was unacceptable "that there are so many violations of the ceasefire [currently in eastern Ukraine]" (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Yet Steinmeier seems to be almost totally deaf to the call by both Poroshenko and Barack Obama that,

"... [Ukraine] cannot conduct polls in separatist regions under international laws unless its porous border with Russia is secured first." (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Furthermore, this proposal of both Poroshenko and US President Obama is,

"...... stiffly opposed by [Putin's] insurgency leaders." (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Neither Steinmeier, nor his French counterpart French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (left), can both 'have their cake and eat it'!

Pressurising Poroshenko to fully adopt the Minsk2 proposals about the implementation of the 'special status' of Putin's rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine, as well as for the holding of elections in this war zone without first securing the border between Russia and Ukraine, is the strongest indication that the hidden agenda of Steinmeier and  Jean-Marc Ayrault is nothing more nor less than to get the sanctions against Russia lifted.

They are simply supporting the goals of Putin to have both the sanctions against Russia lifted, as well as implementing Putin's 'federal breakup' of Ukraine.

In similar vein,

"In Syria, Russia achieved its main goal of shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad, long the Kremlin’s foremost Arab ally. Yet its ultimate objectives remain murky, not least navigating a graceful exit from the messy conflict." (ibid Neil MacFarquhar) (my emphasis)

As Josh Wood so aptly describes it,

"While the breakthrough [in Syria] would represent the first countrywide pause in fighting between the rebels and the [Syrian] regime in nearly five years of war, the same problems that have derailed all recent truce plans so far still remain.

There is no guarantee that the government and its allies will refrain from attacking rebel forces and it seems unlikely that the opposition’s preconditions for a deal will be met." (The National World : February 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Neither is there any guarantee that Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-forces will refrain from attacking Ukrainian forces if the border between Ukraine and Russia is not sealed BEFORE the implementation of the Minsk2 proposals that elections be held in eastern Ukraine, and that eastern Ukraine be given 'special status'.

Perhaps the most obvious indication of Putin's mindset about Ukraine is best illustrated by the fact that,

"Russia's State Duma have asked the organisers of the Eurovision song contest to bar Ukrainian singer Jamala from performing her song about Joseph Stalin's mass deportation of Crimean Tatars in 1944." (KyivPost : Feb. 22, 2016) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Is Putin dragging the world into WWIII?

Two days ago,

"The combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 54 times in the past 24 hours, including 28 times in the Donetsk sector and 26 times in the Mariupol sector, the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) reported on Saturday." (UNIAN : 20.02.2016)  (my emphasis)

Similarly,

 

"No Ukrainian soldiers were killed but four were wounded in the Donbas conflict zone over the last 24 hours, presidential administration spokesman for the Anti-Terrorist Operation Colonel Andriy Lysenko said at a briefing in Kyiv on Saturday, according to an UNIAN correspondent." (UNIAN : 20.02.2016)

The OSCE is also reporting that,

" ... military hardware, including tanks being massed by Russian proxies along the contact line in Donbas, eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN : 19.02.2016) (my emphasis) 

Against this backdrop of Putin's forces manouvering in eastern Ukraine to increase the pressure on a fractured Ukrainian government, the US has confirmed its support for Ukraine.

"Ukraine’s reformers have made substantial progress, but much more remains to be done.  The United States calls on Ukraine’s leaders to honor the memory of the Maidan by working together, accelerating reform, and respecting the will of the Ukrainian people who want progress.  That means fulfilling the conditions of Ukraine’s IMF program, rooting out corruption, and ending the oligarchic grip on politics and the economy.

The Ukrainian people demand change, they deserve it, and the United States will continue to stand with them in support of their European choice." (US Embassy Ukraine : February 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant is that the EU is now publicly proclaiming that Russian soldiers are operating in the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine.

Let us remind ourselves that the EU foreign relations chief, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, 

"... has, since coming to office, and with the exception of Russia-annexed Crimea, avoided any reference to the Russian military in Ukraine." (Stop Fake : February 19, 2016) (cf. also: EuObserver : Sunday 21st Feb 2016) (my emphasis) 

Her tune has now changed.

"Mogherini’s spokeswoman, Maja Kocijancic, told EUobserver the new language in the Official Journal is not an accident.
She said it reflects “mounting evidence, underlining Russia’s responsibility” for the conflict.
.....
An EU diplomat, who asked not to be named, noted: “This new form of Russian warfare – using tanks and soldiers without insignia – is something we haven’t seen before. We’re still trying to work out how to respond to it”.
A second EU diplomat added: “It [the latest Official Journal text] is a clear and understandable message against Russian propaganda and all the lies about non-Russian engagement in the military conflict”. (ibid Stop Fake) (my emphasis)

So what has suddenly prompted this 'volte face' on the part of the 'fragrant' Mogherini to take place?

Is it because,

“The political line of NATO toward Russia remains unfriendly and closed,” Medvedev said in a speech. “It can be said more sharply: We have slid into a time of a new Cold War.”? (Henry Meyer, Ian Wishart, & Andrey Biryukov : Bloomberg Business : February 13, 2016)

Or is it because,

"Medvedev accused Kiev of trying to shift the blame onto Moscow for the continued shelling in the industrial regions of eastern Ukraine now under rebel control.",

whilst Lamberto Zannier, [head of the OSCE monitoring in eastern Ukraine], said,

"We see a multiplication of incidents, violations of the ceasefire," he told Reuters at the Munich Security Conference. "We've seen cases of redeployment of heavy armaments closer to the contact line ... and multiple rocket launchers, artillery being used," he said, referring to the heavy weaponry that is meant to be removed under the Minsk deal." (Robin Emmott and Shadia Nasralla : Reuters : Sat Feb 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Maybe it is because Medvedev has warned that,

"Deploying ground troops in Syria would spark World War Three, the Russian prime minister has warned.
.....
When asked about a recent proposal from Saudi Arabia to send in ground troops, he said 'the Americans and our Arab partners must consider whether or not they want a permanent war.' (Simon Tomlinson : Mail Online : 12 February 2016) (my emphasis)
  
This recent political posturing of Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, should now also be seen against the backdrop of,

"Nationalist demonstrators in Ukraine on Saturday attacked two offices of Russian banks in the capital amid observances of the second anniversary of the protests that brought down the Russia-friendly president.

Demonstrators threw rocks through windows at the offices of Alfa Bank and Sberbank and damaged furniture and equipment inside. Protesters also vandalized the offices of the holding company of Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov. Police didn’t intervene." (AP : Wall Street Journal : Feb. 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

In my last blog entry I wrote that,

"As Vitaly Portnikov explains,

“As long as [Putin] was bold and energetic, as long as oil was at 120 US dollars a barrel and even his military adventures did not lead him to an immediate collapse, the president could allow himself the Ivanovs, the Shoygus, the Narshkins, and the Patrushevs.”

            While they were prepared to serve the supreme leader, they were also credible in their own eyes and in others as successors, Portnikov suggests, and thus they constituted a potential threat to Putin in his eyes – and thus he has moved in the direction of his predecessors by elevating the incompetent or the outrageous (or both at once) to his inner circle." (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : 5 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Re-arming his Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, and digging himself deeper into the Syrian quagmire, are the actions of a desperate man." (blog entry Feb. 17)

In September of 2015, Russian politician Gennady Gudkov stated in an interview that,

"Security services will not be able to stop the disintegration of Russia", said politician Gennady Gudkov. He predicted the inevitable collapse of the country, if the political system in Russia is not urgently changed and the undeclared war with Ukraine is not stopped. Meanwhile, Gudkov says that the regime has no more than two or three years to get decayed through and through."

Is Medvedev's recent warning about the start of World War III, should Saudi Arabian troops enter Syria, an indication of the beginning of what Gennady Gudkov predicted in September of last year?

(to be continued)

Putin is beginning to lash out in desperation

At this year's (2016) Munich Security Conference,

"... Russia's official delegation will be led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev — the message seems to be that Russia is ready to talk about sanctions relief." (Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Feb. 11 2016)

Furthermore, that,

"Official Russian foreign policy positions in Ukraine and Syria have not changed since Lavrov was laughed off stage last year. But Moscow has been forced to show flexibility in finding a solution to its standoff with the West.
The reason for the softening of Russia's position is simple: the nation is experiencing its worst economic crisis since 1998, and Western sanctions are part of the problem. Consumers and companies are in desperate need of relief from the recession." (ibid Matthew Bodner) (my emphasis)

This more 'flexible' stance of Putin should, however, be taken with 'a very large pinch of salt'.

Recall that as recently as Feb. 01 2016, Merkel categorically stated that,

"We still don't have a sustainable cease-fire, which is naturally a prerequisite for the implementation of different points in the Minsk agreement," Merkel is reported as saying. " (Moscow Times :  Feb. 01 2016)

Furthermore, that,

"....Merkel has ruled out lifting EU sanctions against Russia before full cease-fire is implemented in eastern Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday." (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

What, therefore, has prompted Putin to send his glove-puppet, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, as leader of the Russian delegation to the Munich Security Conference, to talk about 'sanctions relief'?

 Could it be, as Sergey Aleksashenko (left), a former deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, contends that,

"Russia’s economic crisis is worse than Moscow admits and that the Kremlin’s optimism about future prospects "has not been based on reality."
....
Russia is experiencing a series of negative trends that, by his estimate, dragged down Russia’s GDP by 9 percent in 2015.
  ...
Russia’s state statistics agency said GDP fell by only 3.7 percent last year. Aleksashenko called that a "statistical miracle" that "does not reflect the real problems." (Dragan Stavljanin and Ron Synovitz : RFE/RL : February 13, 2016)

And whilst Putin's glove-puppet, Medvedev, wants to talk about 'sanctions relief' in Munich,

" Three Ukrainian servicemen have been killed and seven wounded in fighting with pro-Russian separatists in the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday, reporting the highest daily casualty toll since mid-November." (Natalia Zinets and Alessandra Prentice : Reuters : 16 Feb. 2016)

Even more disconcerting, Thomas Gibbons-Neff (right) reports that,

"In addition to the fighting, there has been “circumstantial evidence” that Russia is rearming the separatists, according to Lamberto Zannier, the secretary general of the OSCE." (Washington Post : February 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

This re-arming of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine comes amidst a deepening political crisis in Kiev that,

"...threaten[s] the Minsk ceasefire agreements, whose full implementation (which was initially planned for December 2015) had already been pushed back to an uncertain date this year." (The Guardian : Tuesday 16 February 2016) (my emphasis)

Whether this crisis will be resolved within the next few days remains uncertain. The tenacity with which Ukrainian oligarchs are clinging to power and corruption cannot be underestimated. They have much to loose and nothing to gain if the fight against corruption in Ukraine is accelerated.

Putin may be rubbing his hands with glee at this political crisis in Ukraine. But not for long!

Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative and his military expenditure could simply not be matched by the then Soviet Union.

In the words of the Vatican's Secretary of State, Agostino Cardinal Casaroli,

"Ronald Reagan obligated the Soviet Union to increase its military spending to the limits of insupportability." (Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein : The Atlantic Online : 1994)

Now, as Sergei Guriev reports,

"There is now no question that the Kremlin's military spending is threatening Russia's fiscal position, which has already been undermined by low world oil prices and the West's economic sanctions. And this spending spree shows no sign of slowing. In recent months, growth in military expenditure has accelerated rapidly, exceeding the authorities' already ambitious plans." (Moscow Times : May. 19 2015) (my emphasis)

This has to be viewed against the backdrop of NATO increasing its military footprint, especially in eastern Europe.

Putin's military adventures in Georgia, Ukraine, and now in Syria, may have reinforced his image of himself as the Czar that is regaining Russia's international prestige after the fall of the Soviet Union.

However this 'single-minded' political ambition of his has led to a Russian economy that teeters on the brink of implosion and, as a consequence, he now has to surround himself with "oprichniki" to suppress people or groups opposed to him.

As Vitaly Portnikov explains,

“As long as [Putin] was bold and energetic, as long as oil was at 120 US dollars a barrel and even his military adventures did not lead him to an immediate collapse, the president could allow himself the Ivanovs, the Shoygus, the Narshkins, and the Patrushevs.”

            While they were prepared to serve the supreme leader, they were also credible in their own eyes and in others as successors, Portnikov suggests, and thus they constituted a potential threat to Putin in his eyes – and thus he has moved in the direction of his predecessors by elevating the incompetent or the outrageous (or both at once) to his inner circle." (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : 5 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Re-arming his Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, and digging himself deeper into the Syrian quagmire, are the actions of a desperate man.

(to be continued)

 

Putin is teetering on the edge of an abyss of his own making. Is he going to take the plunge?

"Russia is holding combat readiness exercises involving 8,500 troops, with dozens of ships and aircraft, in a southern region near areas of eastern Ukraine held by pro-Russian rebels.

The snap drill in the Rostov region was ordered by President Vladimir Putin. (BBC News : 9 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Russian troops which are stationed in Crimea as well as forces in the North Caucasus and southwestern regions near the border with Ukraine have been put on combat alert. (Alalam : Tuesday, February 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

Can it be any co-incidence that whilst Putin is preparing his troops for combat readiness on the border of eastern Ukraine,

"Western diplomats now fear peace efforts in Syira have been doomed by a Russian military push that has shored up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's hold on power. The Kremlin-backed Syrian army advanced toward the Turkish border on Monday in a major offensive backed by Russia and Iran." (UT : Feb. 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

The critical link between what Putin is doing in Syria and putting his forces on combat readiness in Crimea and the eastern Ukrainian border is, as Judy Dempsey (left) states,

"Putin’s campaign in Syria is deepening the [EU] refugee crisis and making Angela Merkel’s position increasingly insecure. A weakened Merkel means a weakened European Union ... (EU News : 09 Feb 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Paul Carrel,

"Berlin is growing increasingly suspicious that Russia is trying to stir up trouble in Germany to try to weaken Merkel, who has taken a tough line on a crisis that was triggered when Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014." (Reuters : Wed Feb 3, 2016) (my emphasis) 

And suddenly, the media is now awash with speculation that Putin is,

"...grooming an action man ‘military hero’ in his own image as his heir apparent, according to speculation in Moscow.

Deputy defence minister Alexei Dyumin (right), 43, was this week handed the job of governor of Tula region, as previously unknown details of his ‘courage’ were suddenly leaked to the media.

He was formerly a bodyguard and Putin’s trusted aide-de-camp while also playing goalkeeper in the Kremlin strongman’s own ice hockey club." (Will Stewart : Daily Mail : 6 February 2016) (my emphasis) (cf also: National Post : DNAIndia : War News Updates)

In my blog entry of 4/2/2016 I wrote that,

"Putin's current moves in Ukraine, Germany, and in Syria, are beginning to display a sense of desperation on his part.

To maintain his growing and precarious hold on power in Russia he is finally toying with the 'war' card to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their growing impoverishment by arousing within them a dangerous nationalism."

That his Deputy Defence Minister is now being viewed as his possible successor seems to mirror his own rise in popularity on the back of the Moscow apartment bombings in September of 1999, and his subsequent war against Chechnya that he started in October of 1999.

Just as Putin now seems to have 'thrown caution to the wind',  Robert Hackwill reports that,

"Once a village, Stanitsa Luhanska became an outlying city district of Luhansk and home to 15,000 before the war.
.....
It is one of the main crossing points between Ukraine and the self-styled Luhansk Peoples’ Republic for divided families, and those doing business.
“We want to know when this mess will be over, Ukraine is here and Ukraine is there, we want to know why they have been cut apart. Why do we have to go through this check point with Ukrainian passports? I am Ukrainian, my children are Ukrainians and they are not guilty of letting some terrorists grab power here. The Ukrainian army should go and free us from those terrorists!”(EuroNews : 9/2/2016) (my emphasis)

Adding to the desperation of the inhabitants of eastern Ukraine now having to suffer under the military rule of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, some of Putin's Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine are now being returned to their mothers in body-bags

"42 Russian servicemen have been killed on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine since the beginning of the year. That is according to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.

Ukrainian intelligence says the soldiers were a part of the 1st and 2nd army corps of the Russian forces stationed in the occupied Donbas territories." (UT : Feb. 9, 2016)
 
Putin is teetering on the edge of an abyss of his own making.

Is he going to take the plunge?

(to be continued)