Ukraine Crisis and Putin

Monday 12 August 2019

Zelenskiy will be facing his greatest test at the next Normany Four meeting

As predicted, Putin is fast ramping up his war with Ukraine as the anti-Putin marches in Moscow begin to swell.

As reported by Maria Tsvetkova and Gleb Stolyarov,

"Tens of thousands of Russians staged what a monitoring group called the country’s biggest political protest for eight years on Saturday, defying a crackdown to demand free elections to Moscow’s city legislature.
......
A month of demonstrations over elections for the Moscow city legislature have turned into the biggest sustained protest movement in Russia since 2011-2013, when protesters took to the streets against perceived electoral fraud." (Reuters : 9 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Whilst Putin was severely cracking down on protestors in Moscow and St. Petersburg, UNIAN reports that,

"Armed formations of the Russian Federation and Russian mercenaries mounted 13 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, on Saturday, August 10, using proscribed weapons.

"The enemy was shelling our units' positions, using 82mm mortars, which are banned under the Minsk agreements, as well as grenade launchers of various systems, large-caliber machine-guns, and rifles," the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said on Facebook in a morning update on August 11." (UNIAN : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

And to further show Zelenskiy exactly who is boss,

"Ukraine has protested to Russia after a leather-clad President Vladimir Putin visited the annexed Crimean peninsula to attend a bikers' festival.

Its foreign ministry described Saturday's visit as a "blatant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty".

Ukraine said attempts by Moscow and its media to present such visits as routine were "pathetic". (BBC: 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

This escalation by Putin of his war with Ukraine has led to a flurry of diplomatic activity.

UNIAN reports that,

"Representatives of the United States [Kurt Volker (left)], Germany, France plan to soon hold consultations on the Normandy format, involving Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia." (UNIAN : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

What is disconcerting is that,

"President of France Emmanuel Macron assured Volodymyr Zelensky he would push the issue related to death of four Marines in Normandy group meetings. The issue will be discussed during the meeting between Macron and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on August 19

Macron will meet the President of the Russian Federation on the south of the country in Fort de Brégançon castle in French Riviera. This castle is the French presidents’ summer residence" (112 International :7 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in April of this year, just prior to Ukraine's presidential elections, Poroshenko met with Merkel and Macron.

As Vladimir Socor (left) subsequently reported,

" ...Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020).

Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that :-

(1) the withdrawal of Russian forces,
(2) disarmament of local proxy forces and
(3) restoration of Ukrainian control along the border,

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk.

According to Mr. Poroshenko, the French president (Emmanuel Macron) regards Ukraine’s presidential election as “opening a window of opportunity” for the Minsk and Normandy processes to advance along those lines." (Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April 2019) (my emphasis)

What is further disconcerting is that,

"U.S. President Donald Trump admits the possibility of receiving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House "very soon".

Also, Trump expressed confidence in Zelenskiy willing to take action on reaching peace in Donbas and to make a deal with Russia in this regard.

"He's going to make a deal with President Putin. […] He is a reasonable guy. He wants to see peace in Ukraine. I think he'll be coming very soon," he said. (UNIAN : 9 August 2019) (my emphasis)

As I wrote in an earlier blog entry (18 June 2019),

"Zelenskiy will be confronting Putin, with Merkel and Macron ostensibly supporting him whilst they are, in effect, giving Putin exactly what he wants viz. his Russian soldiers and proxies in absolute control of the Donbas whilst elections there are held.

If Zelenskiy should be wary of the hidden agenda of Putin and Macron as regards the implementation of the Minsk2 agreements, he should be even more wary of his upcoming meeting with Manchurian Candidate Donald Trump, the current US president who owes his White House position to Putin." (blog entry)

How, now, can Trump be so sure that Zelenskiy will make a deal with Putin, especially in light of Putin's recent escalation of his war with Ukraine?

The pressure on Zelenskiy is mounting.

Merkel, and in particular Macron, want to get rid of "the monkey of Putin's war with Ukraine" from off their back as the EU lurches towards an economic downturn.

As Wolfgang Münchau (right) reports,

"The EU has only recently emerged from a decade-long crisis and is now facing an economic downturn, a global currency war, a technology shock in the car sector, possibly a no-deal Brexit and an Italian government crisis.
...
The EU is at risk of a vicious circle during the next downturn or financial crisis. It would then become rational for voters and political parties to look at national alternatives to European integration." (Financial Times : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin, similarly, is facing a deepening economic crisis of his own because of his total dependency on the price of oil as a means of cauterizing the swell of demonstrations that are mounting against him and his 'siloviki'.

As reported by Stephanie Kelly (left),

"Oil falls 3% as trade war concerns hit demand outlook

Global oil benchmark Brent futures fell more than 3% on Monday on global growth concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump last week threatened China with more tariffs, which could limit crude demand from the world’s two biggest buyers." (Reuters : 5 August 2019) (my emphasis)

This fall in the price of oil, and the economic downturn that is facing the EU, will be the 'elephants in the room' at the upcoming Normandy format meeting between Zelenskiy, Putin, Merkel, and Macron.

It will be the 'elephants in the room' that will force the emasculation of the Minsk2 protocols by Macron and Merkel in favour of Putin and against the people of Ukraine.

Zelenskiy will be facing his greatest test at the next Normany Four meeting to discuss the Minsk2 proposals.

(to be continued)

APPENDIX : MINSK2 AGREEMENT

Full text of the Minsk2 agreement: (Wiki)

    1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment
        as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.

    2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on
minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70
kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S,
   Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
        for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
        for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in
   accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
        The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the
ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
        This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided
   from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
    4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with
   the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts
   of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
       Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved
by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the
   law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in
   the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
    5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation
   to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
    6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This
process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
    7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international
mechanism.
    8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as
payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax
payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
        With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the
conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

    9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on
   the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts
   of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on
   the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular
   districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine
   under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.

    11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of
which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,
          agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of
particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached
   footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
    12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and
Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of
   particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be
   held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
    13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the
implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral
   Contact Group.

(The high-lighted points (2, 9, and 10) are what are now regarded by Merkel and Macron as mere aspirations)

Added to which, we have Putin showering the Donbas with Russian passports for the Ukrainian residents under the occupation of his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies.

Thursday 8 August 2019

Is Zelenskiy on the verge of re-defining critical goals specified in Minsk2?

Hardly had the prison doors shut on the recent Moscow arrests of demonstrators against Putin when, on cue,

"Kyiv says four Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in the latest clashes with Russia-backed separatists in the country's east.

The Defense Ministry said in a statement that the pro-Russia separatists opened fire at Ukrainian military positions in the Donetsk region on August 6, using grenade-launchers, machine guns, and assault rifles.

"We say with sadness that, as a result of the enemy's attacks today, according to the information in our possession, four of our heroes sustained injuries, to which they succumbed," the statement said." (RFERL : 6 August 2019) (my emphasis)

The immediate response of Ukraine's President Zelenskiy was to,

"...[urge] the leaders of Russia, Germany and France to resume talks on a peaceful solution to the separatist conflict in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region after four soldiers were killed in shelling on Tuesday." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 6 August 2019) (my emphasis)

In the words of Zelenskiy,

"I called him urgently. I told him that this brings us no closer to peace," Zelenskiy said during a news briefing in Kyiv, adding that he had urged Putin to ask the Moscow-backed separatists who are holding parts of eastern Ukraine to "stop killing our people."

He also said Putin had promised him something, details of which would be disclosed later." (RFERL : 7 August 2019) (my emphasis)

RFERL (ibid) further reports that,

"The Kremlin said the two presidents discussed the prospects of cooperation under the so-called Normandy format for negotiations aimed at putting an end to the conflict, and agreed to intensify their work on prisoner exchange."

What is significant, as reported by Max Seddon and Roman Olearchyk (right), is that,

"The Kremlin said Mr Putin had told Mr Zelensky that “de-escalating the conflict foremost requires stopping all further shelling of residential areas in the Donbass by Ukrainian troops, which is creating civilian casualties”. The phone call on Wednesday was the second between the two leaders since Mr Zelensky became president.

Mr Putin also pushed Kiev to give the breakaway areas — which Russia claims not to control despite abundant evidence to the contrary — special status under a potential peace deal, although this would be politically unpalatable in Ukraine." (Financial Times : 7 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Now recall that Vladimir Frolov (left) of 'The Moscow Times' reported that,

"[Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

So how does this square with Macron's version of the Normandy format i.e. to be composed ONLY of Zelensky, Putin, Merkel, and himself?

Furthermore, given that Merkel and Macron are now of the opinion that,

the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas,
disarmament of local proxy forces and
restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border,

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Vladimir Socor :Ukrinform, April 12, 13) (my emphasis), and that Putin will demand special status for the occupied Donbas under a potential peace deal, exactly what are the details of the co-operation that was discussed recently between Putin and Zelinskiy?

Now that Zelenskiy has an army of political 'rookies' in the Rada, is he on the verge of re-defining critical goals of the Minsk2 agreements, just as Merkel and Macron are re-defining them in Putin's favour?

(to be continued)

APPENDIX : MINSK2 AGREEMENT

Monday 5 August 2019

How will Zelensky's political 'rookies' react when Putin ramps up his war with Ukraine?

The long knives are out! As Oliver Carroll writes,

"Volodymyr Zelensky, a 73-per-cent man of the people, is the pied piper of a record-breaking 254 deputies, plucked from the nation.
...
But critics point to the team’s inexperience, and an approach to political enemies that, they say, is not entirely out of sync with 1917.

...
The prosecutions are mostly being pushed by Andriy Portnov, a powerful lawyer and a former deputy head of the Yanukovych administration. But there are enough informal links – Mr Portnov is close to Andriy Bohdan, Zelensky’s pugnacious chief of staff, and described in some quarters as his teacher – to raise suspicions. " (The Independent : 5 August 2019) (my emphasis)

As Portnov (left) says,

“You’re calling it revenge?” He says. “Well that’s your interpretation. Write that revenge was bleeding from my eyes if you like. I’d prefer to describe it as restoring justice and fulfilling a promise.” (ibid Oliver Carroll) (my emphasis)

And whilst President Zelensky is sharpening his knives against his former opponents, Christopher Miller reports that,

"The presidential campaign of Volodymyr Zelenskiy denied hiring a Washington lobbying firm to burnish his image in the U.S. capital, but one such firm recently reported being paid nearly $70,000 to do just that for the team of the newly elected Ukrainian president.

Lobbying firm Signal Group Consulting, LLC, filed a disclosure report with the U.S. Department of Justice on July 17 that showed work done on behalf of Zelenskiy in Washington between April 3 and May 21, a period of time that included the presidential runoff that Zelenskiy won and the day he took the oath of office." (RFERL : 2 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Which raises the critical question :-

"Will the voters, who thought that they were voting against corruption and for a new broom, get what they hoped for."

And, as demonstrations against Putin's rule continue to surface in Moscow (BBC 27 July 2019, Aljazeera 3 August 2019), and Putin views his opponents as heeding Zelensky's call" ... to see what is “possible” if one does what Ukraine is doing and offering Ukrainian citizenship to those, including Russians, who are struggling against authoritarian regimes", is it not inevitable that Putin will re-focus his anger against Ukraine?

This is perhaps best illustrated by,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on August 4 mounted six attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "Proscribed weapons – 82mm mortars – were used in one instance," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said in an update posted on Facebook as of 07:00 Kyiv time on August 5, 2019." (UNIAN : 5 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"The OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine in their report said their monitors had recorded a number of heavy weapons, banned by the Minsk Agreements, in the area of Luhansk region controlled by Russian-led forces." (UNIAN : 2 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Whilst as yet not veering away from the military stance against Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas, President Zelensky should tread carefully, especially with a politically naive Rada majority that has needed to go to a 'boot camp' for training as 'politicians'.

As Margaryta Chornokondratenko and Natalia Zinets write,

" [Zelensky] did not allow former lawmakers to run on his party’s ticket. Instead, the slate ran the gamut from a wedding photographer to a world champion Greco-Roman wrestler.
...

The new lawmakers gathered in a hotel conference hall in the town of Truskavets in the Carpathian foothills for a week-long course, where classes last from 9 in the morning to 10 at night." (Reuters : 31 July 2019) (my emphasis)

How will these political 'rookies' of Zelensky react when Putin tries to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their ongoing economic hardships and political oppression by ramping up his war with Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Monday 29 July 2019

What 'peace' talks can Putin and Zelensky have given the nature of current events?

The dust has settled on Ukraine's election, and Zelensky has received the control over Ukraine's Rada that he sought shortly after his victory to become President of Ukraine.

In many ways, the success of Zelensky's party represents phase two of the Maidan revolution of 2014.

Phase one was the overthrow of Yanukovich, and the buildup, executed by Poroshenko, of powerful armed forces that held the line against Putin's invasion of the Donbas, and his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea.

Poroshenko also laid the groundwork for the free and fair elections that ultimately led to his downfall and the rise of Zelenskiy and his "Servant Of The People" party which now, effectively, controls Ukraine's Rada.

And falling into Zelensky's lap, like a ripe apple, Nastassia Astrasheuskaya and Henry Foy inform us that,

"Russia could miss the deadline to begin pumping gas to Europe through the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, unless Denmark approves construction in its waters in the next few weeks.
...
"If we do not get approval from the Danish in the next few weeks then we will not make the deadline," a senior official close to Nord Stream 2 told the Financial Times. A second source close to the project said the next month would be critical. "It is almost August and that creates concern if not panic," the person said." (Financial Times : 28 July 2019) (my emphasis)

As

Roman Olearchyk (left) also writes,

Igor Burakovsky, head of Kiev’s Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting, said, "Mr Zelensky’s team was inheriting a “great starting position”, with the economy growing following a deep plunge that followed Russia’s 2014 invasion." (Financial Times: 22 July, 2019) (my emphasis)

But he also sounds a note of caution, stating that,

“With the presidency, parliament, prime minister and cabinet now under his control, Volodymyr Zelensky will have little excuse for not pushing through a reform agenda to boost Ukraine’s deflated economy.”
....
"...the president has also caused consternation with some of his pronouncements during the parliamentary election campaign. His recent call to purge officials who served under his predecessor was condemned by G7 countries. Business is concerned by this weekend’s probe into a domestic steel mill owned by top investor Arcelor Mittal, which Mr Zelensky accused of polluting his hometown city, Kryviy Rih." (ibid Roman Olearchyk) (my emphasis)

Now recall that,

“On the question of reaching peace agreements with Russia, we [i.e. Ukraine's new President, Volodymyr Zelensky] are considering holding a popular referendum,” Andriy Bogdan said.(Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

YouTube : 25 May, 2019 (Full Video)

One could argue that Zelensky has had his 'referendum', and the people of Ukraine have spoken.

"Peace", however, is simply not on Putin's mind.

As UNIAN informs us,

"Moscow-backed forces in the Donbas warzone continue planting Russia-made landmines, proscribed by international conventions, says the report published on Ukraine defense ministry's website. "The command of the Russian occupation forces is taking measures to build up fortifications at forward positions of the units of the 1st (Donetsk) and 2nd (Luhansk) army corps of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," reads the report referring to Ukrainian intelligence data." (UNIAN : 25 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by The South China Morning Post,

"Ukraine on Thursday seized a Russian tanker it said was used in a naval confrontation last November amid sensitive prisoner swap talks between the two countries who have been at loggerheads since 2014.
...
Ukrainian analyst Sergiy Solodky said the move likely took Russia by surprise, saying Moscow had hoped for Kiev to have a softer position on Russia after Zelensky took office in May.
...
“This will provoke an angry reaction from the Russian leadership,” he said." (SCMP : 26 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's anger over the seizure of his tanker is the fact that after a long period of silence, Putin's opponents staged a demonstration two days ago in Moscow that led to the detention of more than one thousand protestors.

As reported by the BBC,

"Police in Moscow have detained more than 1,000 people at a rally, in one of the biggest crackdowns in years. Demonstrators were dragged away from the city hall as security forces used batons against the crowd. People were protesting against the exclusion of opposition candidates from local polls. The opposition say they were barred for political reasons." (BBC : 27 July 2019) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin views this demonstration as somewhat linked to Zelensky's call on others in the post-Soviet countries,

" ... to see what is “possible” if one does what Ukraine is doing and offering Ukrainian citizenship to those, including Russians, who are struggling against authoritarian regimes.
To the extent he follows through on these words, Kseniya Kirillova says, he will be conducting “an active information war” against the Kremlin and “will be struggling not so much for territory as for the hearts and minds of those who live there”" (Paul Goble (right): Window on Eurasia : 7 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Given now that Putin has vented his rage on Navalny by incarcerating him for supporting the Moscow demonstration (c.f. above), and whose incarceration has led to him being rushed to hospital with a 'mysterious' illness (recall the poisoning of Yushchenko), will Putin now sit down with Zelensky and talk peace?

What 'peace' talks can Putin and Zelensky have given the nature of these current events?

(to be continued)

Friday 19 July 2019

How far Zelenskiy will accomodate Putin will be decided this coming Sunday

As we move inexorably towards the coming elections on Sunday in Ukraine, one thing is becoming clear.

Putin is playing an astute political game with President Zelensky, and it seems as though Zelensky is falling headlong into Putin's diplomatic trap.

Let us first remind ourselves of the numerous 'ceasefires' in the Donbas, since 2014, that have, in many instances, lasted only a few hours.

Indeed, these 'ceasefires' have become both a military and political strategic tool employed by Putin and his proxies in his war with Ukraine.

And now, in the words of the Moscow Times, we are told that,

"Russia, Ukraine and Europe’s top security body have announced an “indefinite” ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that analysts hail as a substantial step toward ending the five-year conflict." (Moscow Times : 18 July 2019) (my emphasis)

What is politically significant about this 'indefinite ceasefire' is that it will commence on the very day that the coming elections are held in Ukraine.

As reported by the Moscow Times (ibid),

"The sides have agreed to lay down arms starting midnight this Sunday, July 21, Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) — which collectively make up the Trilateral Contact Group — announced in a statement, with the participation of representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions."

In a simultaneous move, Putin has now announced,

"... a simpler procedure for granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians,” the statement said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Putin’s order on Thursday “a well-argued decision” made after multiple requests from residents of separatist self-proclaimed East Ukrainian republics." (Natalia Zinets, Maria Tsvetkova and Thomas Balmforth : Reuters : 18 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Kurt Volker's (right) [ Special US representative in Ukraine] reponse to this announcement of Putin about 'simplifying the procedure for granting citizenship to Ukrainians, points out that,

"Russia’s move to fast-track the granting of citizenship to all residents of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk runs counter to efforts to achieve peace in an armed conflict that is in its sixth year.

Volker said that by expediting Russian passports for Ukrainian citizens, the measure “flies in the face [of] the spirit of the Minsk agreements,” (RFERL : 19 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Nikolaus von Twickel (left), a former member of the OSCE monitoring mission in eastern Ukraine, also cautioned that,

"... the [proposed] truce could break down at any moment, as it has in the past. Additionally, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy were pursuing their own interests ahead of parliamentary elections in Ukraine this Sunday.

“Russia’s aim is to increase the results of pro-Russian parties in Ukraine before the Rada elections. [Meanwhile,] Zelenskiy shows Ukrainians that under him there will be more progress than there was under [ex-president Petro] Poroshenko,” von Twickel told The Moscow Times." (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

Let us now remind ourselves that,

“On the question of reaching peace agreements with Russia, we [i.e. Ukraine's new President, Volodymyr Zelensky] are considering holding a popular referendum,” Andriy Bogdan said."(Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

YouTube : 25 May, 2019 (Full Video)

"Yesterday, president Zelensky already said that this referendum will be informational ... It will not be obligatory [Questioner: Just like a consulting procedure] ... Consulting ..and ... this idea of this referendum is clear ... President Zelensky .. he wants support from the people for his peace initiative ..."

So this referendum will not be about seeking advice from the people of Ukraine, nor will it [be] about making a decision about the Zelensky 'peace' process." (blog entry :27 May 2019)

It would now seem that Zelenskiy's former 'referendum' proposal has now morphed into "Elect my party and we will have an 'indefinite ceasefire' "

But, as Nikolaus von Twickel points out, " .... the [proposed] truce could break down at any moment, as it has [done] in the past"

Zelenskiy's fate as President of Ukraine now hinges on the results of the upcoming general election in Ukraine this coming Sunday.

(to be continued)

Friday 12 July 2019

Where does Zelensky stand on the issue of the return of Ukraine's Crimea?

There is suddenly a flurry of diplomatic activity as President Zelensky invites Putin to a revamped Minsk2 format talks.

As reported by UNIAN, Zelensky said,

"You and I, U.S. President Donald Trump, British Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Emmanuel Macron. Venue? I think Alexander Lukashenko will be glad to welcome us in Minsk. We do not change or reject any diplomatic formats. We suggest you to talk. We need to talk, don't we?" (UNIAN : 8 July 2019) (my emphasis)

YouTube (8 July 2019) Chinese Gov. News

What is even more interesting is the fact that Putin responded to this invitation by stating that,

“We have never refused any of the proposed formats, including the expansion of the Norman format,” Putin said.

“But, first, this Norman format and summits should be well prepared, this is an obvious thing,” the Russian leader said.
"Secondly, more or less something can be said after the final formation of the new government of Ukraine and the holding of elections to the country's parliament," said the president.
“Thirdly, I don’t know how other participants of the proposed format react [to this invitation],” Putin added. (TASS (Google Translate): 11 July 2019) (my emphasis)

There is, however, a rather large fly in the ointment of this proposal by Zelensky.

And it concerns the status of Ukraine's Crimea.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Former member of the Russian State Duma Ilya Ponomarev (left) has said Ukraine will get Crimea back only "over Mr. Putin's dead body." (UNIAN : 11 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Which rather poses an interesting question viz.

"If, in the mind of Putin, Crimea will always remain a part of Russia, irrespective or not of his demise, will Zelensky's proposal of a new Minsk summit revolve primarily around the ceasing of hostilities in the Donbas, and the return of the Donbas under Ukraine's control?"

Where, then, will the return of Crimea to Ukraine fit into the deliberations of this Minsk summit?

Now remember that US president Trump is already on record as stating that Crimea now belongs to Putin's Russia.

Even before he was elected president he stated that,

""I'm going to take a look at it," Trump said in an interview broadcast on July 31 on the U.S. television program This Week. "But you know, the people of Crimea, from what I've heard, would rather be with Russia than where they were. And you have to look at that, also." (RFERL : 1 August 2016) (my emphasis)

Then, after being elected into the White House with the help of Putin, Trump re-iterated his belief that Ukraine's Crimea IS part of Russia at a briefing in Washington on June 14 2018, just over 1 year ago.

And shortly following on from this briefing in Washington, we had that infamous meeting between Trump and Putin in Helsinki (16 July 2018).

And just prior to this infamous meeting, Siobhan Morrin reported that,

"At least one topic of discussion appears off the table for President Donald Trump's upcoming summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin: Russia's 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Putin spokesman Dmitri Peskov told reporters Monday that the status of Crimea "can not and will never be on the agenda because it is an inseparable part of Russia," according to Agence France-Presse. (Time : 2 July, 2018) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in a previous blog entry (25 May, 2019), I wrote that,

"Perhaps a direct confirmation that the Minsk2 "indispensable pre-conditions" have now morphed into "aspirations" in the eyes of Zelensky and Merkel derives from the fact that,

"The newly-appointed chief of Ukraine’s General Staff, Ruslan Khomchak, appointed (left) by President Vladimir Zelensky two days ago, believes that Kiev had lost Crimea long before 2014.
...
[He reminisced that] "I bought a voucher to a health resort in Alupka," Khomchak said. "When the holiday was over, I told myself I would never go there again, because what I’d seen was really shocking. It was a sad ruin of what was left of the Soviet Union… I kept asking myself: ‘Is this Ukraine?’" (Tass : 24 May, 2019) (my emphasis)"

So even Zelensky's new Chief of General Staff has intimated that Ukraine's Crimea was lost to Russia long before 2014.

Where, then, does Zelensky stand on the issue of the return of Ukraine's Crimea?

(to be continued)

Thursday 4 July 2019

Putin has thrown down the gauntlet to Zelensky

The chosen candidates for the top jobs in the EU have been decided, and have now to be ratified by the parliament of the EU.

As reported by the BBC,"

"The surprise choice of German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen (left) to replace Jean-Claude Juncker came after the main front-runners were rejected." (BBC : 2 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Interestingly,

"French President Emmanuel Macron said the nominations were "the fruit of a deep Franco-German entente"." (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

Let us recall what Ursula said in 2018 regarding the Nord Stream2 pipeline..

"If you look at the gas pipeline ...Germany is an independent country where energy supplies is concerned.." (CNBC : Aug 20 2018) (my emphasis)

And when confronted by the reporter asking,

"... And you don't think this pipeline would compromise security ..." (ibid CNBC),

Ursula von der Leyen responded,

"No. In our own German interests we have to make sure that this is not the case ... But there are many other things to worry about" (ibid CNBC)

Merkel and Ursula von der Leyen are both hell bent on ensuring that Nord Stream 2 goes ahead, irrespective of the real security concerns of Ukraine, together with other EU member states.

And whilst the EU has appointed Ursula von der Leyen, a Putinversteher, as its head, Konstantin Skorkin (right) reports that,

"Zelensky’s first move regarding the Donbas prompted fierce debate in Ukrainian society: he appointed former president Leonid Kuchma the country’s representative in the Trilateral Contact Group aimed at resolving the conflict in Ukraine.
...
.. Kuchma is the living embodiment of the oligarchic clan system that formed during his rule." (Carnegie Moscow Centre : 3 July, 2019) (my emphasis)

Skorkin goes on to further report that,

"At the same time, the head of his administration, Andriy Bohdan, has shown willingness to compromise. In an interview with RBC Ukraine, he proposed giving the Russian language the status of a regional, second language in the Donbas—which would contravene a new law giving Ukrainian special status that Poroshenko signed off on shortly before leaving office—on condition that the breakaway regions go back to being Ukrainian territory." (ibid Skorkin) (my emphasis)

This is the same Andriy Bohdan who is in bed with Kolomoisky.

As reported by Diane Francis (left),

"Americans and Europeans became worried about Kolomoisky’s power after Zelenskiy appointed the oligarch’s long-time lawyer, Andriy Bohdan, to head the government’s administration.

“Nobody’s happy with his appointment so openly which looks like he needs to comfort Kolomoisky,” said Zahoor. “He has a conflict of interest because Kolomoisky is fighting the government to get back his bank or to get billions in compensation. And here his lawyer is in the government.” (Atlantic Council : 28 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Bogdan Zelensky Kolomoiski

So much for Zelensky's platform about ridding Ukraine of the influence of its oligarchs." (blog entry 15 June 2019)

And whilst Zelensky is eager to get the old Ukrainian oligarchs to,

" ... take part in restoring the part of Donbas controlled by Ukraine by financing infrastructure and humanitarian projects ..." (ibid Skorkin) (my emphasis), Paul McLeary reports that,

"As tensions rise between Russia and Ukraine on the Black Sea, the US is upgrading several Ukrainian naval bases to give American and NATO warships the ability to dock just miles from Russia-controlled Crimea. " (Breaking Defense : 3 July 2019) (my emphasis)

No wonder that Putin is becoming very jittery as the Sea Breeze Military Exercise gets underway.

"About 3,000 troops from 19 countries are taking part in military drills in the Black Sea, an exercise that has raised concerns in Russia.

The 12-day Sea Breeze 2019 exercise, involving Ukraine, the U.S., a dozen other NATO allies and a few other nations, began Monday in the northwestern part of the Black Sea. It will involve 32 warships and 24 aircraft." (Navy Times (AP) : 3 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported by News24 (AFP),

"Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau promised on Tuesday to support Ukraine in the wake of Russian "aggression", after a meeting with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky in Toronto.

"In the wake of Russian aggression and attempts to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty, including the illegal annexation of Crimea, it's all the more important for countries like Canada to stand alongside its partner," said Trudeau during a press conference with the newly-inducted Ukrainian president.

"Russia's actions are not only a threat to Ukraine but to international law," Trudeau said." (News 24 (AFP): 3 July 2019) (my emphasis)

News24 (AFP)

And whilst Zelensky is meeting with Trudeau in Canada, Philip Pullella reports that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will hold talks with Pope Francis on Thursday, a day before Ukraine’s Catholic leaders meet at the Vatican to discuss the crisis in their country, and amid speculation that the visit could be a prelude to the first trip by a pope to Russia." (Reuters : 3 July 2019) (my emphasis)

So whilst Putin is hobnobbing with Pope Francis ironically, the very next day,

"Ukraine, which remains a difficult issue in relations between the Vatican and Russia, is expected to be a main topic of discussions in the official papal library in the Vatican’s Apostolic Palace." (ibid Pullela) (my emphasis)

Given the swing of the EU towards Putin, as evidenced by :-

Five years after Russia had its voting rights removed because of the annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, the Council of Europe's parliamentary assembly has voted to restore them
The surprise choice of the Putinversteher German Defence Minister Ursula von der Leyen (Nord Stream 2) to replace Jean-Claude Juncker as Head of the EU
French President Emmanuel Macron commenting that the new EU Heads were "the fruit of a deep Franco-German entente"
Edouard Philippe, the French Prime Minister, stressing that French enterprises are interested in the Russian market, and businesses from France rank first among foreign employers in Russia.(UNIAN : 24 June 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: TASS (24 June 2019))
Putin, once again, meeting with Pope Francis,

can the current Sea Breeze exercises, or the total support of Zelensky by the Canadian Prime Minster, Justin Trudeau, act as a counterweight against this swing towards Putin by the EU?

Putin is fast stacking the EU political chips against Zelensky.

In the words of Ukraine's current Foreign Minister, Pavlo Klimkin (left),

"The worst thing will be if Russia and Europe decide that they can come to terms behind our back and try to impose a different strategy and tactics on us," he said." (UNIAN : 30 June 2019) (my emphasis)

And now Putin has thrown down the gauntlet to Zelensky.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has said the negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv are possible if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky starts "carrying out his election promises."
...
"Yes, it is possible if Mr. Zelensky starts carrying out his election promises, including if he engages in direct contact with his compatriots in Donbas and stops labeling them 'separatists,' if the Ukrainian authorities implement the Minsk Agreements rather than ignore them," (UNIAN : 4 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin, it would seem, now has the upper-hand over Zelensky.

(to be continued)

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