Putin at the UN, and his military buildup on the Ukrainian border

Denis Dyomkin reports that,

"The leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France will agree to roll-over a peace deal for eastern Ukraine if it is not fully implemented this year as intended, the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov, (right) said on Friday.

The so-called Minsk agreements state that various provisions must be implemented before the end of this year. Ushakov said the most important thing was to get them in place as soon as possible and within the existing framework.

"If something is not implemented then it is clear the leaders would agree on some extension," Ushakov told reporters." (Reuters : Fri Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)

This pre-emptive and categoric demand emanating from Putin's Kremlin, even BEFORE the upcoming meeting between himself, Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko, simply does NOT square with the latest call of Poroshenko that,

"...Russia pull out thousands of its troops after warning of Putin's "deadly new imperial ambitions".
...
Mr Poroshenko's stark warning comes ahead of joint meeting with Russian, German and French leaders next month. ....He said:

"A full withdrawal of all occupation forces from Ukrainian territory and closing the Ukrainian-Russian border: these are the two main preconditions for peace and stability in the Donbass." (Oli Smith : Express : Fri, Sep 11, 2015) (my emphasis)


The question that now raises its head is:

(1) "Given that Putin will be clamoring for an extension of the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols, and that 

(2) Poroshenko is calling for exactly the opposite viz. that ALL of the Minsk2 protocols be implemented by the specified deadline of 31st December, 2015,  

what, really, will be the purpose of their proposed October 2 meeting in Paris?"

If we are to believe the Kremlin's top foreign policy aide, Yuri Ushakov (cf. above), then neither Merkel, nor Hollande, will be pressing Putin to fully implement Minsk2 by the 'deadline' date. 

Is this pre-emptive extension of the full implementation of Minsk2 really the agreement that Putin, Merkel, and Hollande came to during their most recent 90 minute Skype Meeting on September 9?

As reported by the Kremlin,

"Particular attention (during this Skype telephone meeting) was given to implementing the political provisions of the Minsk Agreements, first and foremost carrying out a constitutional reform in Ukraine, including legislating special status for the Donbass regions, as well as organising local elections and adopting a law on amnesty. In this regard, Vladimir Putin once again stressed the need to establish a full-fledged, direct dialogue between the Kiev authorities and representatives from southeast Ukraine." (Kremlin.ru : September 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

Nowhere was the withdrawal of Putin's Russian forces mentioned, which indicates that this will simply NOT be implemented according to Minsk2.

Furthermore, as Anton Zverev reports,

"Russia has started to build a huge military base housing ammunition depots and barracks for several thousand soldiers near the Ukrainian border, a project that suggests the Kremlin is digging in for a prolonged stand-off with Kiev." (Reuters : Wed Sep 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

As RFE/RL also informs us,

"Speaking to RFE/RL on September 10, a NATO spokesman said that, "Overall, NATO remains concerned about Russia's military buildup near Ukraine's borders and its continued attempts to destabilize Ukraine." (RFE/RL : 10.09.2015) (my emphasis)

Against this backdrop of the military buildup of Putin's army near the Ukrainian border, Putin is to address the UN General Assembly on 28th September.

Julian Borger, reporting on Wednesday 29 July 2015, speculated that,

"It promises to be a rhetorical battle of the titans, on a scale not seen for at least a decade. 

On a Monday morning in late September, Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, Hassan Rouhani, Xi Jinping and François Hollande are all scheduled to deliver speeches at the United Nations in New York, setting out their visions of the geopolitical landscape at the outset of a highly uncertain era." (Guardian :  Wednesday 29 July 2015) (my emphasis)

Somini Sengupta also speculates that,

"President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia could have an audience with Pope Francis on the sidelines of the development summit meeting here this month — but only, the Vatican envoy to the United Nations said Wednesday, if Mr. Putin gets here in time.

According to diplomatic protocol, the pope is to hold a bilateral meeting with the country that presides over the United Nations Security Council and only with its head of state. In September, that is Russia. Hence, Mr. Putin." (New York Times : Sept. 9, 2015) (my emphasis)

The war between Ukraine and Putin cannot be removed from the backdrop of this "rhetorical battle of the Titans" at the UN, as Julian Borger so aptly describes it. 

What happens in Ukraine between now and that expected "battle of the Titans" at the UN will either put the final nail in the coffin of Minsk2 or attempt to breathe life back into it.

(to be continued)

Putin, Syria, and Ukraine. Putin's dangerous gamble.

In the three-way Skype call between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande on Sat Aug 29, 2015, Putin re-iterated,

"...Russia's calls for direct dialogue between Kiev and rebel representatives and constitutional reforms agreed with the rebel regions." (John Irish, Jason Bush and Paul Carrel : Reuters : Sat Aug 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Since then, events that initially seemed far removed from the war between Putin and Ukraine have given Putin the 'bargaining chips' that he so desperately needs to help extricate himself from the corner into which he has painted himself over the implementation of the Minsk2 protocols.

At the same time, both Merkel and Hollande now see a way out of the EU sanctions against Putin that is causing so much pain in their own economies. 

The Syrian refugee crisis that has erupted in the EU has been further exacerbated by Putin for, among other reasons, to give added impetus to his stand that there must be ,"direct dialogue between Kiev and rebel representatives", a demand that he knows will rightly be rejected by Poroshenko. 

As Leonid Bershidsky (left) writes,

"Persistent reports in recent days indicate that Russia is increasingly involved in the war in Syria. The involvement is stealthy and apparently not as heavy as in eastern Ukraine, but it creates interesting prospects for U.S.-Russian relations, as well as for the development of both the Syrian and the Ukrainian conflicts." (Bloomberg View : Sept 8, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also The Washington Times : Tuesday, September 8, 2015)

Bershidsky further points out that,
 
"...commentators describe the putative Russian intervention as a Putin gamble. The Russian leader travels to the United Nations General Assembly next week, and there, they speculate, he may offer the U.S. a deal: Russian aid to the anti-ISIS effort in Syria in exchange for concessions on Ukraine and an end to sanctions." (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

Already we have Hollande calling for an end to the EU sanctions against Putin.

As reported last Monday by BBC News,

"French President Francois Hollande has said that following recent ceasefire progress in Ukraine he hopes to see the end of sanctions against Russia. 

 

Mr Hollande has proposed a meeting of the leaders of France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine in Paris later this month on the situation in Ukraine

He said there had been progress in recent weeks in implementing a troubled February peace deal.." (BBC News : 7 September 2015) (my emphasis)

This sudden call of Hollande for the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' signifies that he is now more than willing to cave in to Putin's demands that his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine must be invited to the 'Normandy Four' diplomatic table.

Already we have "business as usual" between Putin and many top EU companies.

As reported by Andrew Rettman, (left)

"German firm BASF, last weekend, renewed an asset-swap deal with Russia’s Gazprom which is to see them build a second leg of the Nord Stream gas pipeline to Germany.

Austrian firm OMV, British-Dutch firm Shell, and France’s Engie are also to take part.

The BASF deal was initially suspended due to Russia’s annexation of Crimea

Judy Dempsey, an analyst at the Carnegie Europe think tank, said its renewal is “just like the old days, before the European Union imposed sanctions”.(EU Observer :  8. Sep., 2015) (my emphasis) 

More significantly, however, what is the betting that President Obama, who seems to have put nearly all his 'foreign policy' eggs into his Middle Eastern basket, will simply acquiesce to the demands of Putin?

That Putin will demand an end to sanctions is directly related to the fact that,

"Ukrainian foreign minister, Pavlo Klimkin (right), told press in Brussels on Monday (7 September):

“The first of January is the final date [for entry into life] of the pact.

It’s an ultimate decision taken jointly by Ukraine and by the European Commission”.

“There’s no chance to influence this by the Russian side or any other side … there’s no chance of changing the agreement”.(ibid Andrew Rettman) (my emphasis)

Putin desperately wants to obstruct the implementation of this economic pact between the EU and Ukraine, that comes into effect in less than 4 months from now.

And he will use his 'Syrian card' when grandstanding in front of the UN Assembly at the end of this month as the 'ace up his sleeve' to try and achieve this end.

As Kirill Martynov (left) wrote in Novaya Gazeta,

"Moscow, which, unlike Washington, doesn't have to deal with resistance from public opinion and Congress, is to undertake the destruction of ISIS," Kirill Martynov wrote in Novaya Gazeta.

"If the plan succeeds even partially, the Russian authorities will get all they could ever dream of -- the normalization of relations with the West, the prospect of negotiations on the status of Crimea and, at the same time, a demonstration of Russian power throughout the world .... " (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

But will this really happen? Or does it simply illustrate, as  Yevgeni Kiselyoev (right), a former top TV anchor in Moscow who now lives in Kiev, wrote in a blog post,

"I have no doubt that military intervention in Syria would be an adventure that would put Russia in mortal danger," (ibid Leonid Bershidsky) (my emphasis)

If Yevgeni Kiselyoev is correct then this would mean that Putin has lost his 'gamble', even before he has played what he regards as his 'Syrian Ace up his sleeve'.

Is this 'Syrian adventure' of Putin yet another indication of his desperation in trying to extricate himself from his crumbling 'Ukrainian adventure'? 

Or does it indicate that, like Stalin in his last days, his growing isolation within the Kremlin is now getting the better of him.

(to be continued)

Putin the dangerous gambler .......

In my very first blog entry (Tuesday 10 June, 2014) I wrote that

"One of the hallmarks in the field of espionage is training in the ability of concealment. Indeed, the devious art of concealment can be said to be somewhat central to the persona of a spy. I might add that this art is also practiced by politicians, among others. It is the pivot upon which the world of diplomacy rotates.

That Putin is a rather poor practitioner of this art could be explained by the fact that during his years in the KGB he only obtained the somewhat lowly rank of lieutenant colonel. (подполковник)  

Thus, when he first became President of Russia ( 7 May, 2000) and, a few days later, addressed a meeting of 800 of the FSB (formerly the KGB) top brass at the Dhzerzinsky Club, he smilingly and proudly pronounced,

"The FSB wanted to return to power. I am pleased to announce that we have succeeded!"

He made public what, in the world of espionage, should have been concealed. No doubt many officers in the audience winced inwardly at this [PUBLIC] pronouncement.

Jim Hoagland (left) now (7 August, 2015) rather interestingly informs us that,

"..... U.S. and European intelligence operatives who had studied the Russian president’s 17-year KGB career. 

They too traced a portrait of Putin as a failed spy who was being squeezed out of the KGB when the Soviet system collapsed and political connections suddenly offered him a route to power.

“He was seen in the system as a risk-taker who had little understanding of the consequences of failure,” one said. “The KGB of that era was not keen on risk.”

That analysis of Putin, rather than one of him as a master spy, fits more closely with what he has done as Kremlin boss. Putin today displays an open contempt for Russian public opinions and an uncaring disregard for the economy-damaging sanctions and international disapproval that his Ukraine adventure has provoked, traits that befit a drunken gambler." (Washington Post : 7 August, 2015) (my emphasis)

This rather throws into perspective Putin's current attempt, like a drunken gambler, to create a new bargaining piece for himself at the proposed upcoming meeting between Merkel, Hollande, Poroshenko, and himself, by sending troops and military equipment to bolster his ally in Syria, Bashar Al Assad.

As Rob Crilly (left) reports,

"Russia is building a military base in Syrian president Bashar al-Assad’s heartland, according to American intelligence officials, in the clearest indication yet of deepening Russian support for the embattled regime of Bashar al-Assad...." (The Telegraph : 05 Sep 2015)

Added to which, this will also deflect the gaze of the UN Assembly from the Malaysian Airline MH17 tragedy and the upcoming sentencing of Ukrainian Pilot Nadiya Savchenko when,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will make a speech at the jubilee session of the UN General Assembly in New York. The high-level session with the participation of heads of states, government leaders and foreign ministers will take place from September 28 till October 3, RIA Novosti reports." (Pravda : 01.09.201)

As the lawyer representing Nadiya Savchenko (left) tweeted,

" ...... Savchenko will not be convicted prior to the visit of Russian President Putin to the UN and before a possible UN General Assembly’s decision on the establishment of the tribunal to try the people responsible for the crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17.  (Censor . net : 28.08.15)

 Putin is aware that he can now pressurize President Obama with his support for Bashar Al Assad into trying to force Poroshenko to deal directly with his rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine. 

As a direct hint of this strategy of Putin, a sudden 'leadership shakeup' has occurred amongst Putin's rebel-proxies in Donetsk over Ukraine's 'Special Status' drive for the region.

"Dissent within militant ranks. The parliamentary speaker in occupied Donetsk has been removed from office, in what appears to be a local power struggle within Moscow's proxy forces. That's according to several Ukrainian media outlets and western journalists. Andrei Purgin, seen here, was arrested, then replaced by Denis Pushilin, another leading figure within insurgent ranks." (Ukraine Today : Sep. 5, 2015) (my emphasis)

It almost goes without saying that Putin will categorically demand that his rebel-proxies be recognized as representatives of the eastern Ukraine regions controlled by them and his Russian soldiers, a recognition that Poroshenko, quite rightly, simply will not make. 

Thus, even though,

"Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said Saturday that the Western-backed truce signed in Minsk in February had been respected this week for the first time, despite pro-Russian rebels claiming a civilian had been killed" (AFP : 5 Sept., 2015) (my emphasis),

it is to be expected that upon his return from 'grandstanding' at the UN, Putin will simply let his rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers loose upon the Ukrainian army.

 Putin simply has nowhere to turn to.

Even the Chinese, at the Eastern Economic Forum in the Pacific Port of Vladivostok on Friday (Sept. 4, 2015) , do not seem too enamored with his ideas about him setting up,

".... favorable business conditions and state support to Asian and domestic investors willing to come to Russia's most remote land ...." (Katya Golubkova : Reuters : Sat Sep 5, 2015)

It is no wonder that,

"[Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang]'s address to the forum on Saturday was short and he left immediately afterwards, in the middle of the session, followed by Chinese officials, including Wang Yilin, chairman of the board at China National Petroleum Corporation." (ibid Katya Golubkova) (my emphasis)

We now wait to see just what reception he will receive when he addresses the UN Assembly.

(to be continued)

The sanctions screw against Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' are been turned even tighter

In my blog entry of Thursday, 30 July 2015 I wrote that,

"Recall that on my June 24, 2015 blog entry I suggested that,

"The question that now needs to be asked is whether Merkel, Putin, and Hollande, who had a private Skype meeting about Ukraine without Poroshenko,

"... also discussed over the phone on Monday (Associated Press:22/06/2015) whether Ukraine should be,

"[carrying] out the “last” points of the Minsk agreement and not wait for Russia and the Russian-controlled militants to carry out their portion of the agreement." ( EuroMaidan Press)

The recent clashes outside the Ukrainian Parliament by Svoboda, the far-right Ukrainian political party, that led to at least one fatality and more than 100 injured, are a direct result  of Merkel and Hollande pressuring Poroshenko to speedily devolve power to ALL the regions in Ukraine, specifically to those controlled by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies.

In consequence of these clashes in Kiev, Poroshenko said that,

""It was an anti-Ukrainian act for which all of its organisers without exception -- all representatives of political forces -- should be severely punished," he said in a televised address" (AFP : August 31, 2015)

Interestingly, instead of trying to make political capital out of this event, 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's spokesman said Moscow was also concerned at the clashes but quickly added this was Ukraine's domestic business.

"Of course, we condemn these manifestations of violence, we absolutely do not accept them," spokesman Dmitry Peskov (left) told reporters." (ibid AFP) (my emphasis)

Expect this 'soft' tone to change dramatically as Sounak Mukhopadhyay (right) reports that,

"The U.S. Department of Commerce added new entities from Russia and other countries in its list of sanctions over the Ukraine conflict.

Russian news agency TASS reported that 39 persons under 33 entries had been included in the "Entity List," according to a rule notice in the Federal Register to be published Wednesday. The entries include entities from Russia, Ukraine, Crimea, Romania, Finland, Cyprus, Switzerland and the United Kingdom." ( International Business Times : September 02 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The European Union has agreed to extended sanctions for another six months against Russian firms and individuals, as well as Ukrainian separatists, to maintain pressure on Moscow to carry out the Minsk cease-fire agreement.

The decision was made at a meeting of EU ambassadors on September 2 and should be signed off by ministers in mid-September.

The asset freeze and travel bans were due to expire September 15." (RFERL : Thursday, September 03, 2015) (my emphasis)

This has led Putin to go into an apoplectic fit, and he responded by threatening that Russia will,

".... react in kind to United States' widening of sanctions imposed on Russia over the crisis in Ukraine, criticizing the move as straining relations and posing risks for international stability.
.....
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia's response would be reciprocal." (Reuters : Wed Sep 2, 2015) (my emphasis)


And if this were not enough to get Putin spitting nails, Yuras Karmanau (right) informs us that,

"Ukraine's national security council on Wednesday approved a new military doctrine that declares Russia to be a military opponent and calls for the country to pursue NATO membership.
.......
At the security council meeting, Poroshenko said the doctrine "not only officially establishes the Russian Federation as Ukraine's military opponent, but states the task of relocating military units and creating the necessary military infrastructure in the eastern and southern regions."" (Associated Press : 2 September, 2015) (my emphasis)


Whether all of this will breathe life into the 'lifeless' Minsk2 proposals remains to be seen.

The window of opportunity to do so is rapidly closing.

And as this windows of opportunity for fulfilling ALL of the 13 Minsk2 proposals diminishes with each passing day, Putin himself must be becoming rather worried.

Recall that according to Andrey Piontkovsky,

“Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin,” Andrey Piontkovsky says.

And although evidence of them comes mostly in leaks, they are a clear indication of “the panic and confusion now ruling” there and the beginning in the Kremlin of “a showdown in the higher echelons of power.” (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Aug. 25) (my emphasis)

This is happening against the backdrop of Putin's economy continuing its precipitous fall into an even deeper recession that previously imagined.
 
As reported by Ivana Kottasova (right),

"China's slowdown is making it harder for Beijing to deliver on promises it made to Moscow, and Chinese investors are spooked by Russia's deep economic crisis. 
......
Putin boasted last year that Russia's trade with China would exceed $100 billion in 2015, up from $95 billion in 2014. Longer term, the goal was for $200 billion.

But instead of the promised boost, the value of trade between the two countries has nosedived.

"China's exports to Russia have fallen because of the slump in domestic demand in Russia, which is now in a deep recession," said Liza Ermolenko at Capital Economics." (CNN Money : (London) September 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

What must be giving Putin some slight relief is the fact that EU governments are temporarily  pre-occupied with the flood of Middle-Eastern and North African refugees attempting to enter into EU countries to claim asylum.

This is, however, rather temporary relief for him. 

Neither the EU, nor the US, have taken their eyes off the Ukrainian ball. Nor is there even a glimmer of hope that the Russian economy will soon be clawing its way out of a deepening recession.

(to be continued)

Are Merkel and Hollande throwing a life-line to Putin?

In my blog entry last Tuesday (25 August 2015) I wrote that,

"Patrick Donahue and Helene Fouquet, reporting on yesterday's (24 Aug., 2015) Berlin meeting between Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko, writes that,

"Leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine said they’ll meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin only when they find a way to resolve a stalled cease-fire in eastern Ukraine ....

...

“When we have the impression that it’s necessary, we will exchange views by telephone or in person” with Putin, Merkel told reporters before the meeting.  (Bloomberg Business : August 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that Roland Oliphant reported,

"Fears of a return to all out warfare continue to mount in Ukraine after Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, accused Russia of sending fresh troops and equipment into the eastern part of the country...." (The Telegraph : 24 Aug 2015)

And yesterday Vasyl Hrysak (right), Ukraine's state security chief, reported that,
 
".... heavy weaponry and troops had been pouring into occupied areas of Donbas in eastern Ukraine throughout August. 

He claimed Russia had deployed the troop build-up by using railway lines from Russia to occupied Donbas and through uncontrolled segments of the 400km stetch of the Russian-Ukrainian border; which Ukraine no longer has any control over." (UT : Aug. 29, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also Global Post)

 

Now recall that,

"European leaders agreed on a set 'red lines' whose violation by Russia would prompt a firm EU response," deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev told reporters.

"One of these lines is the fake elections that the (rebels) of Donetsk and Lugansk intend to hold on October 18 and November 1," he said in reference to the two separatist regions."(Dmytro Gorshkov : AFP :August 25, 2015) 

 It now comes to light  that,

"The leaders of France, Germany and Russia backed a new ceasefire in eastern Ukraine in a three-way phone call on Saturday, but offered contrasting views of why February's peace deal is in trouble." (Valentyn Ogirenko : Reuters :  Sat Aug 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

As before, Poroshenko was not a party to this Skype call between Merkel, Putin, and Hollande.

And what, precisely, was discussed during this tête-à-tête Skype call on Saturday between this 'Normandy three'? 

Two highly critical elements stand out, which point to the 'threat' (Tuesday 25 August, 2015) against Putin by Merkel, Hollande, and the EU about the 'crossing of red lines' simply dissolving into thin air viz.

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande warned Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday that any elections held in eastern Ukraine must conform to that country’s laws, 

AND

• “We naturally want to get the political environment back to a state where sanctions can be lifted,” Merkel said Thursday in a speech in Vienna. “We have so many international problems to tackle that it would be desirable to return to constructive cooperation” with Russia, she said. (Chad Thomas : Bloomberg Business : August 29, 2015)

No longer is there talk of 'fake' elections being held by Putin's rebel-proxies in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine. 

'Fake elections' have been magically transformed into, "any elections held in eastern Ukraine must conform to that country’s laws". 

 

More critically, however,

 

 "... a violation by Russia [of crossing those 'red lines' about the holding of 'fake' elections by Putin's rebel-proxies in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine] would prompt a firm EU response," as told by deputy administration chief of Ukraine, Kostyantyn Yeliseyev (right), 

 

has suddenly been magically transformed by Merkel into, "get the political environment back to a state where sanctions [against Putin's Russia] can be lifted.

 

As the late Harold Wilson is rumoured to have said, "A week is a long time in politics". Indeed. (Wikipedia) 

 

What, really, has prompted this rather subtle volte-face, this subtle near total change of position, on the part of both Merkel and Hollande since Tuesday (24 Aug., 2015)?

Is it, as Merkel has said, that “We have so many international problems to tackle that it would be desirable to return to constructive cooperation” with Russia"? (ibid Chad Thomas)

Or is she really throwing a life-line to Putin who, not only has he painted himself into a corner over Ukraine but who, possibly more significantly, senses that the 'long knives' of his 'siloviki' in the Kremlin are being slowly lifted up against him?

 

As Andrey Piontkovsky (right) says,

 

"Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin."

 

And although evidence of them comes mostly in leaks, they are a clear indication of, "the panic and confusion" there and the beginning in the Kremlin  of, "a showdown in the higher echelons of power" (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : August 25, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

To these two factors viz. international problems and the emerging cracks in Putin's hold on power, we have to add the increasingly precipitous dive of the Russian economy into a disastrous recession. (cf: Moscow Times , Bloomberg Business and The Economist)

 

A pointer to this total morass in which Putin's Russian economy finds itself is the fact that in January of this year,

 

"Six months ago, RT had been promised a 30 percent increase to its 2014 budget so it could start broadcasting in German and French. 

 

Now, the 2015 allocation, 15.4 billion rubles ($240 million), will be cut by 10 percent. RT is still getting more money than last year, but the ruble's sharp devaluation in recent months means that the dollar value of the subsidy has decreased by 46 percent. That's important for RT because it works in foreign markets and hires foreigners." ( Leonid Bershidsky: Bloomberg View : Jan 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

If a growing state of confusion now reigns within the Kremlin, and throughout the economy of Russia, neither the EU nor the US are immune from the critical wobbles now occurring in the global economy itself.

That recent bastion of economic growth, China, is experiencing its recent economic euphoria peter out. Putin has lost in his gamble that China would come to the rescue of Russia's ailing economy.

And if, as Andrey Piontkovsky says, "Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin", then China's current economic implosion is but a harbinger of the "global tectonic economic shifts" that are looming on the horizon.

(to be continued)

Are the 'long knives' out to get Putin?

The late Harold Wilson (left) is rumoured to have said that, "A week is a long time in politics". (Wikipedia)

In the case of Ukraine, the unfolding events of the last few days certainly underscores the fact that "A week is, indeed, a long time in politics"

•  Monday Aug. 24 : Ukraine celebrates "Independence Day"

• Monday Aug. 24 : Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko meet in Berlin to discuss Putin's forces trampling all over the Minsk2 'ceasefire'

•  Monday Aug. 24 : "German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Monday that a ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine was not being respected and that everything possible must be done to fully implement a peace deal reached in Minsk, Belarus, in February.
  "We are here to implement the Minsk deal, and not to call it into question," Merkel said at a news conference in Berlin with French President François Hollande and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko. (CBCNews : Thomson Reuters Posted: Aug 24, 2015) (my emphasis)
• Tuesday Aug. 25 : A top aide to President Petro Poroshenko said German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande had agreed at trilateral talks in Berlin on Monday to a set of "red lines" Russia must not cross. "One of these lines is the fake elections that the (rebels) of Donetsk and Lugansk intend to hold on October 18 and November 1," deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev told reporters.
  "Russia must pressure its loyalists to cancel these so-called elections. They will not be recognised and only pose a serious threat to the Minsk (peace) process if they go ahead," he told reporters. (Dmytro Gorshkov : AFP : August 25)

• Tuesday Aug. 25 : Reuters informs us that,"Ukraine and pro-Russian separatists, in a gesture to shore up a tenuous ceasefire, agreed on Wednesday to strive for an end to all truce violations from next Tuesday, the OSCE and rebel representatives said." (Andrei Makhovsky : Reuters : Aug. 25) (my emphasis)

•  Tuesday Aug. 25, spilling over into Wednesday Aug. 26: "Business Life (Delovaya Zhizn) reports on markets, finance, entrepreneurship, finance, and leisure, scarcely an outlet for sensational information. Its innocuously entitled “Increases in Pay for Military in 2015,” however, reveals what appear to be official figures on the number of Russian soldiers killed or made invalids “in eastern Ukraine.” Russian censors quickly removed the offending material but not before it had been webcached by the Ukrainian journal Novy Region ....... February 1, 2015, monetary compensation had been paid to more than 2,000 families of fallen soldiers and to 3,200 military personnel suffering heavy wounds and recognized as invalids " (Paul Gregory : Forbes : Aug. 26) (my emphasis)

  

Whilst yet another 'ceasefire' has been agreed upon, it should be borne in mind that so many of these have previously been put in place, only to be trampled all over by Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine, we can all be forgiven for treating this 'new ceasefire' with a large dose of skepticism.

Furthermore, Dmytro Gorshkov has reported that,

"...the insurgents have refused to have their vote coincide with regional elections that will be held on October 25 in the rest of Ukraine.

They have further vowed to bar any pro-Kiev politician from running for office -- two conditions that have been rejected outright by Poroshenko but never officially condemned by Russia." (AFP : Aug. 25) (my emphasis)

Recall that point 12 of the Minsk2 proposals state that,

"12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR." (Wikipedia)

What, therefore, does all this talk about "red lines that Russia must not cross" really mean? 

And exactly what 'firm response', according to EU deputy administration chief Kostyantyn Yeliseyev, will be forthcoming from the EU if Putin simply ignores this threat of theirs?

Merkel and Hollande are still adamant that,

"We are here (Berlin Meeting last Monday, Aug. 24) to implement the Minsk deal, and not to call it into question,"

Could this sudden, and rather feeble, "Macho Response" of Merkel and Hollande towards Putin about him not 'daring to cross Red Lines' have anything to do with speculations emanating from Moscow that,

“Strange tectonic shifts are taking place around the Kremlin,” Andrey Piontkovsky (left) says.

And although evidence of them comes mostly in leaks, they are a clear indication of “the panic and confusion now ruling” there and the beginning in the Kremlin of “a showdown in the higher echelons of power.” (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Aug. 25) (my emphasis) 

Indeed, Paul Goble (right) goes on to speculate further that,

"And Aleksey Venediktov, the editor of Ekho Moskvy who in Piontkovsky’s telling likes to be seen as someone with access, “suddenly has felt the need to describe very precisely that “before the annexation of Crimea, a meeting took place in the Kremlin and literally all those present – diplomats, military commanders, economists, and intelligence officials – expressed definite concerns and doubts about this action.”

            Nonetheless, Putin “didn’t listen to them and took his decision.”

            Such strange behavior, the Russian analyst continues, reflects the lack of a strategy among those closest to Putin. But it strongly suggests that they are now looking past his time and trying to position themselves for good standing in a post-Putin Moscow and a post-Putin international community." (ibid Paul Goble)

Possibly supporting these speculations about 'confusion and panic' reigning in the Kremlin, we have,

1. Nikolay Patrushev....  [s]peaking at a Vladivostok conference today, [who] denounced the use by officials of “foreign” resources like Google, Yahoo, WhatsApp, and others as a threat to national security, and
2. Today’s “Novyye izvestiya” reports that Sergey Kalashnikov, the chairman of the Duma’s committee on health, has announced that he has prepared draft legislation that would create a government organization to license those who offer their services as healers 
3. The Russian Security Council official’s remarks follow earlier reports that the Duma may adopt a law this fall that would “prohibit bureaucrats and state employees from using social networks at work.”  Observers say that this measure will be considered this fall, after the law on “cyber sovereignty” goes into effect on September 1.(Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Aug. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

All of this may, indeed, be why Merkel, Hollande, and the EU are suddenly draping themselves in the cloak of "Macho EU" against Putin.

 

(to be continued)

Putin has blown any chances of a true 'ceasefire' out of the water.

Patrick Donahue and Helene Fouquet, reporting on yesterday's (24 Aug., 2015) Berlin meeting between Merkel, Hollande, and Poroshenko, write that,

"Leaders of Germany, France and Ukraine said they’ll meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin only when they find a way to resolve a stalled cease-fire in eastern Ukraine ....

...

“When we have the impression that it’s necessary, we will exchange views by telephone or in person” with Putin, Merkel told reporters before the meeting.

“I also don’t rule out that we’ll have a four-way meeting again.” (Bloomberg Business : August 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

And whilst Merkel and Hollande are still trying to breathe life into the dead fish of Putin's Minsk2 Protocols,

"...Ukraine's military said Monday that the rebels violated a cease-fire 82 times overnight in the eastern part of the country, in some cases with large-caliber weapons that should have been withdrawn in line with a truce signed in February." (Efrem Lukatsky (AP) U.S. News : Aug. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

As Roland Oliphant also reports,

"Fears of a return to all out warfare continue to mount in Ukraine after Petro Poroshenko, the Ukrainian president, accused Russia of sending fresh troops and equipment into the eastern part of the country....

.....

“Moscow’s ‘army surplus’ has supplied fighters with 500 tanks, up to 400 artillery systems, and 950 fighting vehicles,” he said.

“Just this week three big convoys crossed our border towards Lugask, Donetsk, and Debaltseve,” he continued. (The Telegraph : 24 Aug 2015) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"Leading separatist figure Denis Pushilin warned that open warfare “can be resumed at any moment." (Garrett Khoury : Business Insider : Aug. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time Lukatsky reports that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, publicly exposed the fact that  'Novorossiya' is still central to Putin's thinking by invoking nothing more nor less than the very DNA code itself. 

As Sergey Lavrov (right) stated,

"It is difficult to escape the thought that their (Ukraine's) goal was to break the genetic code that guarantees the unity of our peoples," Sergey Lavrov said. "I don't think he (Poroshenko) will succeed." (ibid Efrem Lukatsky) (my emphasis)

Perhaps the 'continuous mantra' of Merkel and Hollande to try and bring to life the dead fish of the Minsk2 ceasefire has something to do with the fact that,

"..Pentagon officials worry about whether or not the United States is really prepared for a war with Russia, should one break out.

These concerns make the battlefield knowledge of Ukrainian forces all the more valuable. With the major information-gathering benefit in mind, both the United States and Britain are planning on expanding their training missions in the country.

....

....the Army will move from solely training National Guardsmen to adding in regular soldiers from the Defense Ministry.

Far from being solely to the benefit of Ukraine, Operation Fearless Guardian is proving to be of critical importance to the United States and NATO."(Garrett Khoury : Business Insider : Aug. 24, 2015) (my emphasis)

 Added to which,

"The US is to deploy F-22 fighter jets to Europe as part of efforts to support eastern European members of the Nato alliance unnerved by Russia’s intervention in Ukraine.

“Russia’s military activity in the Ukraine continues to be of great concern to us and to our European allies,” the air force secretary, Deborah James, told a news conference at the Pentagon. 

“For the air force an F-22 deployment is certainly on the strong side of the coin.” (The Guardian: Reuters (Washington) : Tuesday 25 August 2015) (my emphasis)

These responses of NATO, unforseen by Putin as he invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, and who then thought that he could simply walk all over Ukraine, must be giving his 'siloviki' generals pause for thought. 

The currently battle-hardened Ukrainian army is proving more than a match for his rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

Given these 'facts on the ground', why is Merkel and Hollande placing all their hopes on a dead 'ceasefire' if not to force Poroshenko to give the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine a special status?

Recall that as long ago as June of this year,

“The Europeans are demanding that we (Ukraine) propose a strategy for the special status of Donbas. 

And they want this status not to be limited to three years (as in the law about the status of certain territories) but to be made permanent,” [Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (left), first deputy head of the Ukrainian Parliamentary Committee on Foreign Affairs,] said.

According to Klympush-Tsintsadze,  somehow the complex approach to carrying out the Minsk-2 Agreements is being negated suddenly.

“Despite the fact that the first steps have not even been carried out — the ceasefire is not respected, the heavy weaponry has not been withdrawn, our hostages have not been returned — but the EU is telling Kyiv to carry out the fifth or seventh step,” she said. " (Serhiy Sydorenko, European Pravda, June 23, 2015)

This is also what Merkel and Hollande are telling Poroshenko to do.

Under the 'diplomatic' guise of wanting to breathe life into a dead 'ceasefire', Merkel and Hollande are practically forcing Poroshenko to 'let go of the eastern Ukraine territories that are in the hands of Putin's soldiers and his rebel-proxies.

One could almost say that this has been their common 'hidden' goal running through both Minsk1 and Minsk2.

Like the dead fish of the Minsk2 'ceasefire', current events have now brought this goal of theirs to light.

Where will they go from here?

(to be continued)