Putin being given breathing space

Luis Ramirez rather neatly sums up the current frustrations boiling over in Ukraine. He reports that,

"The Ukrainian government this month narrowly survived a no-confidence vote in parliament, and frustrations are showing early signs of boiling over again as patience wears thin among those who want corruption and economic disparity gone quickly, and for good." (VOA : February 26, 2016) my emphasis)

Those internal Ukrainain frustrations have their growing international counterparts as well.

For the first time even the Chinese are publicly calling for international support for a political settlement of the war between Putin's Russia and Ukraine. As reported by the  Xinhua News Agency,

"A Chinese envoy to the United Nations Monday highlighted the importance of political settlement in solving the Ukraine issue and called for support from the international community.

A comprehensive solution of the Ukraine issue must follow the general direction of political settlement, said Liu Jieyi (left), China's permanent representative to the UN at a Security Council meeting briefed by the Chairperson-in-Office of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). (BruDirect : Tuesday, 01 March 2016) (my emphasis)

Liu, however, is hedging China's call by not wishing to ruffle Putin's feathers, nor wanting to jeopardise China's huge investments in Ukrainian agricultural land.

Liu thus added that

".... it is imperative to fully take into account the legitimate rights and demands of all regions and ethnic groups within Ukraine while paying good attention to the legitimate concerns of all relevant parties." (ibid Xinhua News Agency) (my emphasis)
 

Meanwhile, that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier, continues to pressure Ukraine to hold those Minsk2 'elections' in Putin-controlled eastern Ukraine, whilst yet again simply glossing over the fact that such elections would be totally meaningless unless :-

• Ukraine, together with the OSCE and possibly the UN, are in full control of the border between Russia and Ukraine to prevent a flood of Russians entering eastern Ukraine and then claiming that they are residents of Ukraine
• such elections to be held according to Ukrainian law 
• a strict system of identification of valid Ukrainian electors should be put into place so that Putin's thousands of 'little green men' currently in eastern Ukraine cannot palm themselves off as valid Ukrainian citizens  
• Putin's rebel-proxies and Russian soldiers (who would no doubt by then have divested themselves of their 'little green men Russian uniforms) should not hinder any Ukrainian canvassers or candidates from freely having access to ALL of the territories of eastern Ukraine that Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers now control
• these elections should be held under the watchful eyes of an army of international observers, including EU observers

Bearing these five elementary points in mind, is it any wonder that,

"Speaking at a news conference in Washington with U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, Frank-Walter Steinmeier conceded that the readiness of the government in Kiev and pro-Russian separatists to move forward with Minsk was "very limited". (Noah Barkin : Reuters (Yahoo News) : 1st March, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that, 

"Kiev's struggles to get an election law for eastern Ukraine through parliament and an increase in ceasefire violations in the region have raised fears that the deal, sealed one year ago in the Belarus capital, could collapse, sparking a new wave of fighting."? (ibid Noah Barkin) (my emphasis)

Andreas Umland (right) perceptively reports that,

"Obviously, neither Russian aggression nor economic difficulties should excuse the Ukraine government’s slow pace of reforms. 

Ukraine’s friends should continue to press Kiev hard for cleaner government and deeper economic reform. 

But the West should recognize that the country’s exhausted civil society and its beleaguered administration are operating in an environment of exceptional stress and myriad distractions. 

Western leaders and policymakers must thus maintain the pressure on Moscow to abandon its reckless hybrid war. Had Russia respected the sovereignty, integrity, and European choice of its “brother nation,” we would, already today, have a very different Ukraine." (Foreign Policy : February 26, 2016) (my emphasis)

It would seem, however, that from Christine Largarde (Head of the IMF) witholding IMF money for Ukraine, to vice-president Biden, to Walter Steinmeier, to President Hollande; the pressure is being placed on Poroshenko to implement Minsk2 to the mutual exclusion of pressure being placed on Putin to do likewise. 

In fact, the pressure on Putin is so lukewarm that he can simply sit back and let the west do his job of dismembering Ukraine and ensuring that Ukraine's political structure fails.

And yet the EU is, during this Ukraine Week, vowing its support for Ukraine.

"This 3-day high-level conference is bringing together MEPs, national and Ukrainian MPs to share experience on good parliamentary practice, law-making and representation.
 

The event "demonstrates strong solidarity between the European Parliament and the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine", said Mr Schulz. "You need our support and you will receive it." (EU Parliament : 01-03-2016) (my emphasis)

And then we have the EU caveat that,

"However recommendations to reform the VRU should not be put into the filing cabinet, but implemented", he added." (ibid EU Parliament)

But I shall let Vitali Klitschko have the last word.

(to be continued)

Putin, Ukraine, Syria, and ....... Jamala

Olga Tanas (below) informs us that,

"With employers already hunkering down after oil’s collapse and the crash in the ruble to record lows last month, the prolonged downturn is giving way to adjustments in the labor market that are further squeezing household finances. As expectations fade for a quick turnaround after the biggest drop in consumption under President Vladimir Putin, the challenge for authorities is how to contain discontent without further straining the budget before parliamentary elections later this year." (Bloomberg Business : February 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly, on the international front, Neil MacFarquhar reports that,

"The partial truce that Russia and the United States have thrashed out in Syria capped something of a foreign policy trifecta for President Vladimir V. Putin, with the Kremlin strong-arming itself into a pivotal role in the Middle East, Ukraine floundering and the European Union developing cracks like a badly glazed pot.

Beyond what could well be a high point for Mr. Putin, however, lingering questions about Russia’s endgame arise in all three directions." (New York Times : Feb. 23, 2016) (my emphasis)

These lingering doubts include:- 

• Mr. Assad, who has grown bolder because of Russian and Iranian support, recently said he planned to reassert control over all of Syria.....That would put Russia in the unpredictable position of supporting Damascus through the long, most likely bloody slog needed to dislodge the Islamic militants. (ibid  Neil MacFarquhar) (my emphasis)
• Another wild card for Moscow is its increasingly hostile relationship with Turkey, after a Russian warplane was shot down in November after briefly violating Turkish airspace. (ibid  Neil MacFarquhar)
• The Russian economy is in dire straits, as described by Olga Tanas, and no matter how much Putin may try to gloss over this fact, Aleksandr Shumilin, a senior Middle East expert at the Russian Academy of Sciences, warns that whilst Putin may be feeling a 'flush of success' over  his strategy in Syria, this feeling of 'success' “will depend on the situation, which is very complicated at the moment” and which could add a further and unacceptable drain on the already faltering Russian economy.

These lingering doubts over Putin's endgame in Syria are further complicated by the fact that,

"US President Barack Obama [  ] told Russia's Vladimir Putin on Monday about the importance of "permitting... the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) full access to the conflict area, including the international border." (Beatrice Le Bohec : AFP (Yahoo News) : 23 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Added to which, even that Putinversteher, Walter Steinmeier (right), has had to admit that,

"... it was unacceptable "that there are so many violations of the ceasefire [currently in eastern Ukraine]" (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Yet Steinmeier seems to be almost totally deaf to the call by both Poroshenko and Barack Obama that,

"... [Ukraine] cannot conduct polls in separatist regions under international laws unless its porous border with Russia is secured first." (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Furthermore, this proposal of both Poroshenko and US President Obama is,

"...... stiffly opposed by [Putin's] insurgency leaders." (ibid Beatrice Le Bohec)

Neither Steinmeier, nor his French counterpart French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault (left), can both 'have their cake and eat it'!

Pressurising Poroshenko to fully adopt the Minsk2 proposals about the implementation of the 'special status' of Putin's rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine, as well as for the holding of elections in this war zone without first securing the border between Russia and Ukraine, is the strongest indication that the hidden agenda of Steinmeier and  Jean-Marc Ayrault is nothing more nor less than to get the sanctions against Russia lifted.

They are simply supporting the goals of Putin to have both the sanctions against Russia lifted, as well as implementing Putin's 'federal breakup' of Ukraine.

In similar vein,

"In Syria, Russia achieved its main goal of shoring up the government of President Bashar al-Assad, long the Kremlin’s foremost Arab ally. Yet its ultimate objectives remain murky, not least navigating a graceful exit from the messy conflict." (ibid Neil MacFarquhar) (my emphasis)

As Josh Wood so aptly describes it,

"While the breakthrough [in Syria] would represent the first countrywide pause in fighting between the rebels and the [Syrian] regime in nearly five years of war, the same problems that have derailed all recent truce plans so far still remain.

There is no guarantee that the government and its allies will refrain from attacking rebel forces and it seems unlikely that the opposition’s preconditions for a deal will be met." (The National World : February 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Neither is there any guarantee that Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel-forces will refrain from attacking Ukrainian forces if the border between Ukraine and Russia is not sealed BEFORE the implementation of the Minsk2 proposals that elections be held in eastern Ukraine, and that eastern Ukraine be given 'special status'.

Perhaps the most obvious indication of Putin's mindset about Ukraine is best illustrated by the fact that,

"Russia's State Duma have asked the organisers of the Eurovision song contest to bar Ukrainian singer Jamala from performing her song about Joseph Stalin's mass deportation of Crimean Tatars in 1944." (KyivPost : Feb. 22, 2016) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Is Putin dragging the world into WWIII?

Two days ago,

"The combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 54 times in the past 24 hours, including 28 times in the Donetsk sector and 26 times in the Mariupol sector, the press center of the Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) reported on Saturday." (UNIAN : 20.02.2016)  (my emphasis)

Similarly,

 

"No Ukrainian soldiers were killed but four were wounded in the Donbas conflict zone over the last 24 hours, presidential administration spokesman for the Anti-Terrorist Operation Colonel Andriy Lysenko said at a briefing in Kyiv on Saturday, according to an UNIAN correspondent." (UNIAN : 20.02.2016)

The OSCE is also reporting that,

" ... military hardware, including tanks being massed by Russian proxies along the contact line in Donbas, eastern Ukraine." (UNIAN : 19.02.2016) (my emphasis) 

Against this backdrop of Putin's forces manouvering in eastern Ukraine to increase the pressure on a fractured Ukrainian government, the US has confirmed its support for Ukraine.

"Ukraine’s reformers have made substantial progress, but much more remains to be done.  The United States calls on Ukraine’s leaders to honor the memory of the Maidan by working together, accelerating reform, and respecting the will of the Ukrainian people who want progress.  That means fulfilling the conditions of Ukraine’s IMF program, rooting out corruption, and ending the oligarchic grip on politics and the economy.

The Ukrainian people demand change, they deserve it, and the United States will continue to stand with them in support of their European choice." (US Embassy Ukraine : February 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant is that the EU is now publicly proclaiming that Russian soldiers are operating in the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine.

Let us remind ourselves that the EU foreign relations chief, the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, 

"... has, since coming to office, and with the exception of Russia-annexed Crimea, avoided any reference to the Russian military in Ukraine." (Stop Fake : February 19, 2016) (cf. also: EuObserver : Sunday 21st Feb 2016) (my emphasis) 

Her tune has now changed.

"Mogherini’s spokeswoman, Maja Kocijancic, told EUobserver the new language in the Official Journal is not an accident.
She said it reflects “mounting evidence, underlining Russia’s responsibility” for the conflict.
.....
An EU diplomat, who asked not to be named, noted: “This new form of Russian warfare – using tanks and soldiers without insignia – is something we haven’t seen before. We’re still trying to work out how to respond to it”.
A second EU diplomat added: “It [the latest Official Journal text] is a clear and understandable message against Russian propaganda and all the lies about non-Russian engagement in the military conflict”. (ibid Stop Fake) (my emphasis)

So what has suddenly prompted this 'volte face' on the part of the 'fragrant' Mogherini to take place?

Is it because,

“The political line of NATO toward Russia remains unfriendly and closed,” Medvedev said in a speech. “It can be said more sharply: We have slid into a time of a new Cold War.”? (Henry Meyer, Ian Wishart, & Andrey Biryukov : Bloomberg Business : February 13, 2016)

Or is it because,

"Medvedev accused Kiev of trying to shift the blame onto Moscow for the continued shelling in the industrial regions of eastern Ukraine now under rebel control.",

whilst Lamberto Zannier, [head of the OSCE monitoring in eastern Ukraine], said,

"We see a multiplication of incidents, violations of the ceasefire," he told Reuters at the Munich Security Conference. "We've seen cases of redeployment of heavy armaments closer to the contact line ... and multiple rocket launchers, artillery being used," he said, referring to the heavy weaponry that is meant to be removed under the Minsk deal." (Robin Emmott and Shadia Nasralla : Reuters : Sat Feb 13, 2016) (my emphasis)

Maybe it is because Medvedev has warned that,

"Deploying ground troops in Syria would spark World War Three, the Russian prime minister has warned.
.....
When asked about a recent proposal from Saudi Arabia to send in ground troops, he said 'the Americans and our Arab partners must consider whether or not they want a permanent war.' (Simon Tomlinson : Mail Online : 12 February 2016) (my emphasis)
  
This recent political posturing of Putin's glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev, should now also be seen against the backdrop of,

"Nationalist demonstrators in Ukraine on Saturday attacked two offices of Russian banks in the capital amid observances of the second anniversary of the protests that brought down the Russia-friendly president.

Demonstrators threw rocks through windows at the offices of Alfa Bank and Sberbank and damaged furniture and equipment inside. Protesters also vandalized the offices of the holding company of Ukraine’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov. Police didn’t intervene." (AP : Wall Street Journal : Feb. 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

In my last blog entry I wrote that,

"As Vitaly Portnikov explains,

“As long as [Putin] was bold and energetic, as long as oil was at 120 US dollars a barrel and even his military adventures did not lead him to an immediate collapse, the president could allow himself the Ivanovs, the Shoygus, the Narshkins, and the Patrushevs.”

            While they were prepared to serve the supreme leader, they were also credible in their own eyes and in others as successors, Portnikov suggests, and thus they constituted a potential threat to Putin in his eyes – and thus he has moved in the direction of his predecessors by elevating the incompetent or the outrageous (or both at once) to his inner circle." (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : 5 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Re-arming his Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, and digging himself deeper into the Syrian quagmire, are the actions of a desperate man." (blog entry Feb. 17)

In September of 2015, Russian politician Gennady Gudkov stated in an interview that,

"Security services will not be able to stop the disintegration of Russia", said politician Gennady Gudkov. He predicted the inevitable collapse of the country, if the political system in Russia is not urgently changed and the undeclared war with Ukraine is not stopped. Meanwhile, Gudkov says that the regime has no more than two or three years to get decayed through and through."

Is Medvedev's recent warning about the start of World War III, should Saudi Arabian troops enter Syria, an indication of the beginning of what Gennady Gudkov predicted in September of last year?

(to be continued)

Putin is beginning to lash out in desperation

At this year's (2016) Munich Security Conference,

"... Russia's official delegation will be led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev — the message seems to be that Russia is ready to talk about sanctions relief." (Matthew Bodner : Moscow Times : Feb. 11 2016)

Furthermore, that,

"Official Russian foreign policy positions in Ukraine and Syria have not changed since Lavrov was laughed off stage last year. But Moscow has been forced to show flexibility in finding a solution to its standoff with the West.
The reason for the softening of Russia's position is simple: the nation is experiencing its worst economic crisis since 1998, and Western sanctions are part of the problem. Consumers and companies are in desperate need of relief from the recession." (ibid Matthew Bodner) (my emphasis)

This more 'flexible' stance of Putin should, however, be taken with 'a very large pinch of salt'.

Recall that as recently as Feb. 01 2016, Merkel categorically stated that,

"We still don't have a sustainable cease-fire, which is naturally a prerequisite for the implementation of different points in the Minsk agreement," Merkel is reported as saying. " (Moscow Times :  Feb. 01 2016)

Furthermore, that,

"....Merkel has ruled out lifting EU sanctions against Russia before full cease-fire is implemented in eastern Ukraine, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday." (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

What, therefore, has prompted Putin to send his glove-puppet, Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev, as leader of the Russian delegation to the Munich Security Conference, to talk about 'sanctions relief'?

 Could it be, as Sergey Aleksashenko (left), a former deputy chairman of the Russian central bank, contends that,

"Russia’s economic crisis is worse than Moscow admits and that the Kremlin’s optimism about future prospects "has not been based on reality."
....
Russia is experiencing a series of negative trends that, by his estimate, dragged down Russia’s GDP by 9 percent in 2015.
  ...
Russia’s state statistics agency said GDP fell by only 3.7 percent last year. Aleksashenko called that a "statistical miracle" that "does not reflect the real problems." (Dragan Stavljanin and Ron Synovitz : RFE/RL : February 13, 2016)

And whilst Putin's glove-puppet, Medvedev, wants to talk about 'sanctions relief' in Munich,

" Three Ukrainian servicemen have been killed and seven wounded in fighting with pro-Russian separatists in the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian military said on Tuesday, reporting the highest daily casualty toll since mid-November." (Natalia Zinets and Alessandra Prentice : Reuters : 16 Feb. 2016)

Even more disconcerting, Thomas Gibbons-Neff (right) reports that,

"In addition to the fighting, there has been “circumstantial evidence” that Russia is rearming the separatists, according to Lamberto Zannier, the secretary general of the OSCE." (Washington Post : February 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

This re-arming of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine comes amidst a deepening political crisis in Kiev that,

"...threaten[s] the Minsk ceasefire agreements, whose full implementation (which was initially planned for December 2015) had already been pushed back to an uncertain date this year." (The Guardian : Tuesday 16 February 2016) (my emphasis)

Whether this crisis will be resolved within the next few days remains uncertain. The tenacity with which Ukrainian oligarchs are clinging to power and corruption cannot be underestimated. They have much to loose and nothing to gain if the fight against corruption in Ukraine is accelerated.

Putin may be rubbing his hands with glee at this political crisis in Ukraine. But not for long!

Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defence Initiative and his military expenditure could simply not be matched by the then Soviet Union.

In the words of the Vatican's Secretary of State, Agostino Cardinal Casaroli,

"Ronald Reagan obligated the Soviet Union to increase its military spending to the limits of insupportability." (Richard Ned Lebow and Janice Gross Stein : The Atlantic Online : 1994)

Now, as Sergei Guriev reports,

"There is now no question that the Kremlin's military spending is threatening Russia's fiscal position, which has already been undermined by low world oil prices and the West's economic sanctions. And this spending spree shows no sign of slowing. In recent months, growth in military expenditure has accelerated rapidly, exceeding the authorities' already ambitious plans." (Moscow Times : May. 19 2015) (my emphasis)

This has to be viewed against the backdrop of NATO increasing its military footprint, especially in eastern Europe.

Putin's military adventures in Georgia, Ukraine, and now in Syria, may have reinforced his image of himself as the Czar that is regaining Russia's international prestige after the fall of the Soviet Union.

However this 'single-minded' political ambition of his has led to a Russian economy that teeters on the brink of implosion and, as a consequence, he now has to surround himself with "oprichniki" to suppress people or groups opposed to him.

As Vitaly Portnikov explains,

“As long as [Putin] was bold and energetic, as long as oil was at 120 US dollars a barrel and even his military adventures did not lead him to an immediate collapse, the president could allow himself the Ivanovs, the Shoygus, the Narshkins, and the Patrushevs.”

            While they were prepared to serve the supreme leader, they were also credible in their own eyes and in others as successors, Portnikov suggests, and thus they constituted a potential threat to Putin in his eyes – and thus he has moved in the direction of his predecessors by elevating the incompetent or the outrageous (or both at once) to his inner circle." (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : 5 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Re-arming his Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, and digging himself deeper into the Syrian quagmire, are the actions of a desperate man.

(to be continued)

 

Putin is teetering on the edge of an abyss of his own making. Is he going to take the plunge?

"Russia is holding combat readiness exercises involving 8,500 troops, with dozens of ships and aircraft, in a southern region near areas of eastern Ukraine held by pro-Russian rebels.

The snap drill in the Rostov region was ordered by President Vladimir Putin. (BBC News : 9 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Russian troops which are stationed in Crimea as well as forces in the North Caucasus and southwestern regions near the border with Ukraine have been put on combat alert. (Alalam : Tuesday, February 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

Can it be any co-incidence that whilst Putin is preparing his troops for combat readiness on the border of eastern Ukraine,

"Western diplomats now fear peace efforts in Syira have been doomed by a Russian military push that has shored up Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's hold on power. The Kremlin-backed Syrian army advanced toward the Turkish border on Monday in a major offensive backed by Russia and Iran." (UT : Feb. 9, 2016) (my emphasis)

The critical link between what Putin is doing in Syria and putting his forces on combat readiness in Crimea and the eastern Ukrainian border is, as Judy Dempsey (left) states,

"Putin’s campaign in Syria is deepening the [EU] refugee crisis and making Angela Merkel’s position increasingly insecure. A weakened Merkel means a weakened European Union ... (EU News : 09 Feb 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Paul Carrel,

"Berlin is growing increasingly suspicious that Russia is trying to stir up trouble in Germany to try to weaken Merkel, who has taken a tough line on a crisis that was triggered when Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014." (Reuters : Wed Feb 3, 2016) (my emphasis) 

And suddenly, the media is now awash with speculation that Putin is,

"...grooming an action man ‘military hero’ in his own image as his heir apparent, according to speculation in Moscow.

Deputy defence minister Alexei Dyumin (right), 43, was this week handed the job of governor of Tula region, as previously unknown details of his ‘courage’ were suddenly leaked to the media.

He was formerly a bodyguard and Putin’s trusted aide-de-camp while also playing goalkeeper in the Kremlin strongman’s own ice hockey club." (Will Stewart : Daily Mail : 6 February 2016) (my emphasis) (cf also: National Post : DNAIndia : War News Updates)

In my blog entry of 4/2/2016 I wrote that,

"Putin's current moves in Ukraine, Germany, and in Syria, are beginning to display a sense of desperation on his part.

To maintain his growing and precarious hold on power in Russia he is finally toying with the 'war' card to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their growing impoverishment by arousing within them a dangerous nationalism."

That his Deputy Defence Minister is now being viewed as his possible successor seems to mirror his own rise in popularity on the back of the Moscow apartment bombings in September of 1999, and his subsequent war against Chechnya that he started in October of 1999.

Just as Putin now seems to have 'thrown caution to the wind',  Robert Hackwill reports that,

"Once a village, Stanitsa Luhanska became an outlying city district of Luhansk and home to 15,000 before the war.
.....
It is one of the main crossing points between Ukraine and the self-styled Luhansk Peoples’ Republic for divided families, and those doing business.
“We want to know when this mess will be over, Ukraine is here and Ukraine is there, we want to know why they have been cut apart. Why do we have to go through this check point with Ukrainian passports? I am Ukrainian, my children are Ukrainians and they are not guilty of letting some terrorists grab power here. The Ukrainian army should go and free us from those terrorists!”(EuroNews : 9/2/2016) (my emphasis)

Adding to the desperation of the inhabitants of eastern Ukraine now having to suffer under the military rule of Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in eastern Ukraine, some of Putin's Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine are now being returned to their mothers in body-bags

"42 Russian servicemen have been killed on the frontlines in eastern Ukraine since the beginning of the year. That is according to the Chief Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defence Ministry.

Ukrainian intelligence says the soldiers were a part of the 1st and 2nd army corps of the Russian forces stationed in the occupied Donbas territories." (UT : Feb. 9, 2016)
 
Putin is teetering on the edge of an abyss of his own making.

Is he going to take the plunge?

(to be continued)

Putin's Syrian gambit, and his build-up of forces on the Russian-Ukrainian border. Stepping into the abyss?

The resignation of Ukrainian Economy Minister, Aivaras Abromavicius (left), has brought to the fore the clarion call of the Maidan protestors of 2013 that corruption within Ukraine had to be rooted out and a 'new', uncorruptible, society and parliament be established.

In the words of Ukrainian Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatseniuk (right),

" ... ideally all ministers and their deputies should not have been in politics prior to the 2013/14 Maidan uprising, which ousted a president under whom oligarchs wielded huge political influence and state firms were milked." ( Natalia Zinets and Alessandra Prentice : Reuters : Fri Feb 5, 2016) (my emphasis)

 Echoing Arseniy Yatseniuk we have Ukraine's Finance, Minister Natalie Jaresko (left), stating that,

" ... there is a need for: "unconditional support of the reform program; the program of cooperation with the IMF, including the need to urgently pass laws that will ensure transparent privatization; no political interference in the change of the management of the top 60 state-run enterprises on the basis of an independent nomination committee, and de-politicization of the State Fiscal Service." (Interfax Ukraine : 06.02.2016) (my emphasis)

The political upheaval casued by the resignation of Aivaras Abromavicius is also having its repercussions in the EU.

As reported by Robin Emmott,

“If Ukraine doesn’t come through with the reforms linked to the Minsk peace process, it will be very difficult for Europe to continue united in support for sanctions against Russia,” Kristian Jensen (right) [Denmark’s foreign minister] told Reuters, referring to the peace deal agreed by Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany last year."
.....
Sanctions expire in July and can be extended.

But countries with a closer relationship with Russia including Cyprus, Italy and Hungary could argue that if Ukraine is not abiding by the Minsk peace deal, the process no longer holds. (Euro News : Reuters, 05/02/2016) (my emphasis)

This argument that Ukraine is not abiding by the Minsk2 deal simply ignores the fact that, as stated by Roman Bessmertnyi (left),

"[The] plan to link free and fair elections in Donbas to greater autonomy is unrealistic. Ukrainian members of the Minsk Trilateral Group say their Russian counterparts in the talks on January 27 delivered a proposal for ending Russian's invasion of east Ukraine.

The plan, dubbed 'The Steinmeier Formula,' provides for elections in Donbas and amending the Constitution of Ukraine to grant autonomy for the militant-held areas." (UT : Jan. 28, 2016) (my emphasis)

The ORDER of Protocols 9 - 12 of the Minsk2 agreement specifically states that:

1. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.
2. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine under OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
3. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached footnote, by the end of 2015.
4. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR. (Wikipedia)

Putin has NOT implemented protocols (1) and (2). He has neither withdrawn his Russian soldiers, nor his military equipment, from the rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. Neither has he returned the border between Ukraine and Russia back to the Ukrainian authorities. 

And yet Cyprus, Italy, and Hungary are once again clamouring for an end to EU sanctions against Russia.

Why is there such a deafening silence from them over Putin's non-implementation of the Minsk2 proposals (1) and (2) outlined above?

Is this because, as reported by Reuters in Brussels,

“[A] US official said Russia used fewer precision-guided munitions [in Syria] than the US and its allies.

The Russian strikes [in Syria] that are not precise cause me great concern because I think there is an indirect correlation to the refugee flow,” the official said. “It is not just the pressure it is putting on Nato and the EU, it is also the humanitarian cost.”(The Guardian : Saturday 9 January 2016) (my emphasis)

Are events in Syria now becoming inextricably intertwined with events in Ukraine?

(to be continued)

Has Putin bitten off more than he can chew?

There is a 'perfect storm' gathering over Ukraine.

The 'boyars' of Yanukovich, left in the lurch after he fled into the arms of Putin, are beginning to feel the increasing heat of the clamour against the corruption and 'theft', coming from the Ukrainian people, the US, and the EU., under which they amassed their ill-gotten fortunes.

As  Mikheil Saakashvili has also suggested,

" ... Ukraine could elbow the ultrarich from politics by cleaning up state-owned enterprises.

 

“You can just cleanse them of their oligarch manager and basically destroy or abolish this joint stock company of oligarchs that is what they see, what they regard, as Ukraine,” he said. (Andrew E. Kramer : New York Times : Feb. 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

This 'cleansing of Ukrainian state-owned enterprises of  oligarch managers' has been further underlined by,

"Ukraine's economy minister Aivarus Abromavicius (left)  [who] has resigned in protest at the slow pace of reform in the country.

He said he did not want to provide "cover" for widespread government corruption." (BBC News : 3 February 2016) (my emphasis)

This head of steam, bubbling up against the corruption in Ukraine, threatens to critically split the Poroshenko government.

 

And standing on the sidelines we have Putin, rubbing his hands in obvious glee.

So much so, that he has given the 'green light' to his rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine, to trample once again all over the Minsk2 agreements.

It is therefore no wonder that, as reported by UNIAN,

 

"Ukrainian officials are reporting up to 71 attacks a day, with most of the fighting concentrated around the separatist-held cities of Donetsk and Gorlovka [Horlivka in Ukrainian], as well as the countryside east of the Azov port city of Mariupol." (The Daily Beast :UNIAN : 03.02.2016) (my emphasis)

Similarly, it is no co-incidence that, as Paul Carrel reports,

"Russia was building up its military presence on the border with Ukraine, [Poroshenko] said.

"The danger of an open war is greater than last year," Poroshenko told Bild, in an interview published in its Wednesday edition. "Russia is investing a great deal in war preparations."
 

 Merkel pressed Putin by phone on Tuesday to use his influence to ensure that a ceasefire is upheld in Ukraine and that monitors from the OSCE European security organization are granted free access to conflict areas, her spokesman said." (Reuters : Wed Feb 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

Paul Carrel further reports that, 

"Berlin is growing increasingly suspicious that Russia is trying to stir up trouble in Germany to try to weaken Merkel, who has taken a tough line on a crisis that was triggered when Russia annexed Crimea in March 2014.

German officials say Moscow hopes to destabilize Europe and create a vacuum into which it can project its own power." (ibid Carrel) (my emphasis) 

This 'divide-and-rule' tactic of Putin is best exemplified by the fact that,

"Bavarian Premier Horst Seehofer (below left) on Wednesday called for an easing of Ukraine-related sanctions against Russia "in due course," ahead of a controversial meeting with President Vladimir Putin at his residence outside Moscow.
 

"We want to make an honest contribution to the rebuilding of trust and normality in a difficult political environment," the head of German Chancellor Angela Merkel's Bavarian sister party said later during his talks with Putin." (DPA : About Croatia : Wed, 03/02/2016) (my emphasis)

 It is also exemplified by the fact that,

"With the Syrian government intensifying its assault on rebels in Aleppo, the United Nations formally suspended faltering peace talks in Geneva Wednesday and appealed to the big powers to prod their Syrian proxies to end the fighting.

The move came hours after Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov delivered a blunt message to the peacemakers seeking to silence the guns in Syria. Lavrov made it clear that Moscow — which has provided extensive military assistance to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad — has no intention of pausing a barrage of airstrikes in the rebel-controlled areas around the cities of Aleppo and Homs." (John Hudson & Colum Lynch : FP : February 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's current moves in Ukraine, Germany, and in Syria, are beginning to display a sense of desperation on his part.

To maintain his growing and precarious hold on power in Russia he is finally toying with the 'war' card to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their growing impoverishment by arousing within them a dangerous nationalism.

As Poroshenko told Bildt,

""The danger of an open war is greater than last year," (ibid Paul Carrel)

And this war may not only involve Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Is Putin's foreign minister, Lavrov, loosing his mind?

Natalia Zinets reported on 24th January, 2015, that,

"Ukraine will not give its eastern regions greater autonomy until a lasting ceasefire with pro-Russian separatist rebels is in place, President Petro Poroshenko said on Sunday, in comments that could antagonize the rebels and the Kremlin." (Reuters : January 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Yet, as repotrted recently on RU Expatica,

"Poroshenko accused "Russia and its proxies" of failing to observe the ceasefire, and of some 1,200 shellings in January alone.

Observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) are denied access to the border, he said, adding that "this is not surprising as Russia still supplies troops, heavy weapons and ammunition to Donbass over the border and does not want witnesses to these illicit activities."
(RU Expatica : 1 Feb. 2016) (my emphasis)

Even Angela Merkel, who apparently has a portrait on her desk of Russian empress Catherine the Great, the Prussian-born princess, is now openly 'bemoaning',

"...the lack of progress between Ukraine and Russia to implement the initial terms of their peaceful political agreement.

Fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian troops in the country’s eastern Donbas region has continued, despite political arrangements to implement a cease-fire and hold local elections in the cities of Donetsk and Luhansk, Ms. Merkel said before a closed-door meeting with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Berlin on Monday." (Zeke Turner : Wall Street Journal : Feb. 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

Yet once again we have that 'dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet' foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, screaming from the rafters that,

"Ukraine is dragging its feet on implementation of the Minsk peace agreement because its wants to keep in place the Western sanctions imposed on Russia, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Tuesday." (Reuters : Tue Jan 26, 2016)

 Now recall that on the 29 January, I posed the following question:


"Will Putin withdraw his Russian soldiers and military equipment from the rebel-held territory of eastern Ukraine if the Steinmeier Formula of granting autonomy to these rebel-held territories is implemented?"

This is precisely the question that Lavrov simply ignores. Indeed, one could go so far as to say that Lavrov seems to have developed something of a "blind spot" over this issue, very similar to the "blind spot" that he has developed of being a signatory to the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 that stipulated,

"According to the memorandum, Russia, the U.S., and the UK confirmed, in recognition of Ukraine becoming party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and in effect abandoning its nuclear arsenal to Russia, that they would:

1. Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty and the existing borders.
2. Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.
4. Seek immediate United Nations Security Council action to provide assistance to Ukraine, "if Ukraine should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used".
5. Refrain from the use of nuclear arms against Ukraine.
6. Consult with one another if questions arise regarding these commitments. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

(LiveLeak)

Added to which,

 

 

"Two Ukrainian soldiers have been killed in the country's war-torn east where government forces are seeking to put down a pro-Russian insurgency, the first reported casualties in nearly three weeks, Ukraine's military said Sunday." (Yahoo News : January 31, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

It is not Poroshenko who is "dragging his feet in implementing Minsk2".

Rather, Sergey Lavrov should avert his eyes towards his boss, Vladimir Putin, before making such "foot-in-mouth" statements.

(to be continued)