The pressure is now on Zelenskiy.

In my blog entry of 8 June, 2017, I wrote that,

"The scarlet thread of Maidan, that has wrapped Putin in sanctions, and that has wrapped Trump in the nightmare of his salacious cavortings in Russia being publicly revealed, as by his own 'denial' of those cavorting to James Comey, cannot be easily escaped from by either Putin nor Trump."

This is best illustrated by Trump recently coming to the defense of Putin, and exhorting the members of the the recent 2019 G7 summit in France to reinstate Putin so that the G7 can revert back to the G8.

Let us remind ourselves that Putin was kicked out of the G8 because of his invasion of, and annexation of, Ukraine's Crimea peninsula, and his setting in motion his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

 MSNBC : 22 Aug 2019

Yet whilst the erstwhile President of France, Emmanuel Macron, supports maintaining the exclusion of Putin from the G7 he is, nonetheless, trying to steamroller the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, into holding a Normandy Format talks about ending the war between Putin and Ukraine.

As RFERL reports,

"French President Emmanuel Macron says the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France will hold talks next month aimed at ending the conflict in eastern Ukraine, as U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton announced he would visit Ukraine.

"We think that the conditions exist for a useful summit," Macron said at the end of a Group of Seven (G7) summit in the southwestern French coastal resort of Biarritz.2 (RFERL : 26 August 2019) (my emphasis)


U.S. National Security Adviser John Bolton is not so sure that President Zelensky should rush into such talks with Putin.

As  RFERL reports,

"U.S. national-security adviser John Bolton (right) says there is no need for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to "rush" into any course of action regarding Russia’s involvement with separatist forces in eastern Ukraine.
...
"I don't suppose that the Europeans are going to have a solution that is readily apparent," he added in reference to the so-called Normandy format of negotiations aimed at ending the Ukraine conflict." (RFERL : 27 Aug 2019) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that,

"...Merkel and Macron are now of the opinion that,

• the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, 
• disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Vladimir Socor :Ukrinform, April 12, 13)"

Which rather underscores the Polish Deputy Foreign Minister's statement that,

"... the existing cooperation between Russia and Germany on the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project is reminiscent of Nazi Germany's cooperation with the USSR before World War II, that's according to Deputy Foreign Minister Szymon Szynkowski vel Sęk (left)" (UNIAN : 27 August 2019) (my emphasis)

President Zelensky now finds himself stuck between Macron, Merkel, Bolton, and his electoral promise to end the war with Putin that still rages in the Donbas.

But can Zelensky either :-

• ignore Bolton's caution about 'rushing into action' when dealing with Putin about his war with Ukraine in the Donbas and his annexation of Ukraine's Crimea or
• ignore Macron's steamrollering towards a  Normandy Format meeting with Putin because of the expanding economic links between French and Russian businessmen or
• ignore Merkel steamrollering the completion of Nord Stream 2 between Germany and Putin?

These are the choices confronting Zelensky.

But what could determine which choice Zelensky chooses is the prospect of,

" ...  a meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy [that] could happen soon.

[According to Bolton], “We expect to have a chance for the two of them to talk in Poland,” he said.

Trump is expected to travel to Poland and Denmark from Aug. 31 to Sept. 3, the White House said last month." (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : 27 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Critically, if this meeting between Trump and Zelenskiy transpires it will be BEFORE the Normandy Format meeting being pushed by Macron (and Merkel?)!

Todd Prince (right) outlines the reason for Trump going to Poland and Denmark.

"U.S. President Donald Trump will fly to Europe later this month to pursue a goal his predecessors going back to John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan failed to achieve -- derailing a Kremlin-backed energy-export pipeline.

The Trump administration and the U.S. Congress are fighting to block the 9.5 billion-euro ($10.6 billion) Nord Stream 2 project amid fears it will make NATO allies and other European countries more reliant on Russian energy and damage Ukraine by depriving it of transit fees." (RFERL : 13 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Trump may have called for Putin to be re-admitted to the G7 group, but he faces an uphill political struggle as the 2020 US presidential race gains momentum.

How this will affect a Zelenskiy-Trump meeting now remains to be seen.

MSNBC : 26 August 2019

 


The pressure is now on Zelenskiy. 

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!

Natasha Bertrand of Politico has just reported that,

"The Trump administration is slow-walking $250 million in military assistance to Ukraine, annoying lawmakers and advocates who argue the funding is critical to keeping Russia at bay.

But the delays come amid questions over Trump’s approach to Russia, after a weekend in which the president repeatedly seemed to downplay Moscow’s military intervention in Ukraine and pushed for Russia to be reinstated into the Group of Seven, an annual gathering of the world’s largest advanced economies. " (Politico : 29 August 2019) (my emphasis)

The pressure on Zelenskiy seems only to be increasing.

What can Zelensky, Merkel, and Macron propose to Putin that will end his war with Ukraine?

As was to be expected, Victor Mallet and Henry Foy report that,

" Emmanuel Macron and Vladimir Putin have raised the possibility of a new round of negotiations to try to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine after five years of war.
...
“In close co-operation with President Zelensky and Chancellor [Angela] Merkel we will be considering the opportunity — it’s what we want — of a new summit in the Normandy format in the coming weeks if we can prepare the way,” Mr Macron said after welcoming Mr Putin." (Financial Times : 19 August 2019) (my emphasis)

But Macron is not having it all his own way.

Victor Mallet and Henry Foy continue that,

"The French president is risking criticism from human rights activists that he is welcoming Mr Putin at a time when the Russian government is persecuting its political opponents at home. But Mr Macron’s advisers say the aim is to make progress on Ukraine and other dangerous international conflicts in the run-up to the G7 summit of big democracies in Biarritz at the weekend." (ibid Mallet and Foy) (my emphasis)

Like Putin,

"Mr Macron also said he wanted to see the whole international order reshaped, hinting at an effort to bring Russia in from the cold in terms of its increasingly frosty relations with the west." (ibid Mallet and Foy) (my emphasis)

Holly Ellyatt (right) has, however, poured some cold water on the intentions of Macron. She argues that,

"However, no progress should be expected in resolving the Ukraine crisis - France does not have the diplomatic capital to get this process going on its own, and it is clear the so-called Normandy Format that also involves Germany is dead, with no meeting under its auspices in the last two years.” (CNBC : 19 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Holly Ellyatt further reports that,

"... Daragh McDowell, the principal Russia analysts at Eurasia Group, told CNBC on Monday.

“I wouldn’t envisage there will be any concessions on Ukraine at this point. I don’t think Putin will want to signal any readiness that he’s willing to back down. He doesn’t want to signal any weakness to Zelenksy.” (ibid Holly Ellyatt) (my emphasis)

It is also interesting to note that Daragh McDowell correctly identifies the 'Nord Steam 2 elephant in the room' of any "new summit in the Normandy format in the coming weeks”, as proposed by Macron, after he recently welcomed Mr Putin at the French presidential retreat of the Fort de Brégançon on the Mediterranean coast."  
 

Furthermore, as UNIAN reports,

" ... the meeting with Macron is evidence France is pursuing its own independent foreign policy, officials argue. Putin may see things differently, said Vladimir Frolov, a foreign-policy analyst in Moscow.
...
Putin is unlikely to agree to much on Ukraine, where the stalemate continues despite Zelensky's calls for a new push for peace, said Frolov." (UNIAN : 19 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Frolov also states that,

"Putin will be focusing on Trump in the dialogue with Macron, whom he looks down on as an upstart," Frolov said. "[..] Trump is more important [to Putin] than Macron." (ibid UNIAN above) (my emphasis)

And whilst Macron is trying to resuscitate a Normandy format meeting with Putin, UNIAN also reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on August 19 mounted 11 attacks on Ukrainian Army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, with one Ukrainian soldier reported as wounded in action.

"The armed forces of the Russian Federation and its mercenaries violated the ceasefire 11 times on August 19..." (UNIAN : 20 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin does, with impunity, command his Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas to consolidate his bargaining position by them simply walking roughshod over any ceasefire agreement.

Putin uses their attacks on Ukraine's soldiers as a political bargaining chip to essentially elicit concessions in his favour, concessions which are best exemplified by Macron,

"... hinting at an effort to bring Russia in from the cold in terms of its increasingly frosty relations with the west." (ibid Mallet and Foy) (my emphasis)

As Frolov so succinctly put it,

"It's a no-lose visit for Putin [to France], it completely eliminates the idea that he was isolated," said Frolov." (ibid UNIAN 19 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's President Zelensky may be, like Macron, clamouring for a Normandy format meeting to try and end Putin's war with Ukraine and, with it, end those pesky EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' but, and it is a big BUT, will Putin ever agree to relinquishing his hold over the Donbas or returning Crimea back to Ukraine?

With this in mind, one can safely say that the Minsk2 protocols (see attached Appendix) are dead in the water.

So the question is,

"What will Zelensky, Macron, and Merkel propose at a new Normandy format meeting that will meet Putin's demands and end his war with Ukraine?"

(to be continued)

APPENDIX : MINSK2 PROTOCOLS

Full text of the Minsk2 agreement: (Wiki)

    1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment  
        as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.

    2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on
        minimum 50  kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70
        kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S,
       Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
        for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
        for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in
         accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
        The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the
        ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
        This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
 
    3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided
       from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
    4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with
       the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts
       of  Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
       Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved
        by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the
       law  "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in
       the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
    5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation
       to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
    6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This
        process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
    7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international
        mechanism.
    8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as
        payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax
        payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
        With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the
        conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

    9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on
       the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts
       of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on
       the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular
       districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine
         under  OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
 
    11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of
          which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,
          agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of
          particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached
         footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
    12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and
          Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of
         particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be
         held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
    13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the
          implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral
         Contact Group.

 (The high-lighted points (2, 9, and 10) are what are now regarded by Merkel and Macron as mere aspirations)

Added to which, we have Putin showering the Donbas with Russian passports for the Ukrainian residents under the occupation of his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies.

Zelenskiy will be facing his greatest test at the next Normany Four meeting

As predicted, Putin is fast ramping up his war with Ukraine as the anti-Putin marches in Moscow begin to swell.

As reported by Maria Tsvetkova and Gleb Stolyarov,

"Tens of thousands of Russians staged what a monitoring group called the country’s biggest political protest for eight years on Saturday, defying a crackdown to demand free elections to Moscow’s city legislature.
......
A month of demonstrations over elections for the Moscow city legislature have turned into the biggest sustained protest movement in Russia since 2011-2013, when protesters took to the streets against perceived electoral fraud." (Reuters : 9 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Whilst Putin was severely cracking down on protestors in Moscow and St. Petersburg, UNIAN reports that,

"Armed formations of the Russian Federation and Russian mercenaries mounted 13 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, on Saturday, August 10, using proscribed weapons.

"The enemy was shelling our units' positions, using 82mm mortars, which are banned under the Minsk agreements, as well as grenade launchers of various systems, large-caliber machine-guns, and rifles," the press center of the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said on Facebook in a morning update on August 11." (UNIAN : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

And to further show Zelenskiy exactly who is boss,

"Ukraine has protested to Russia after a leather-clad President Vladimir Putin visited the annexed Crimean peninsula to attend a bikers' festival.

Its foreign ministry described Saturday's visit as a "blatant violation of Ukraine's sovereignty".

Ukraine said attempts by Moscow and its media to present such visits as routine were "pathetic". (BBC: 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

This escalation by Putin of his war with Ukraine has led to a flurry of diplomatic activity.

UNIAN reports that,

"Representatives of the United States [Kurt Volker (left)], Germany, France plan to soon hold consultations on the Normandy format, involving Germany, France, Ukraine and Russia." (UNIAN : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

What is disconcerting is that,

"President of France Emmanuel Macron assured Volodymyr Zelensky he would push the issue related to death of four Marines in Normandy group meetings. The issue will be discussed during the meeting between Macron and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin on August 19

Macron will meet the President of the Russian Federation on the south of the country in Fort de Brégançon castle in French Riviera. This castle is the French presidents’ summer residence" (112 International :7 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in April of this year, just prior to Ukraine's presidential elections, Poroshenko met with Merkel and Macron.


As Vladimir Socor (left) subsequently reported,

" ...Mr. Poroshenko obliquely suggested that he has been presented with a road map and time frame, leading to local “elections” in the Donetsk-Luhansk territory within 11 months (by March 2020).

Mr. Poroshenko’s paraphrase of the document implies that :-

• (1) the withdrawal of Russian forces,
• (2) disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• (3) restoration of Ukrainian control along the border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk.

According to Mr. Poroshenko, the French president (Emmanuel Macron) regards Ukraine’s presidential election as “opening a window of opportunity” for the Minsk and Normandy processes to advance along those lines." (Ukrainian Weekly : 26 April 2019) (my emphasis)

What is further disconcerting is that,

"U.S. President Donald Trump admits the possibility of receiving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the White House "very soon".

Also, Trump expressed confidence in Zelenskiy willing to take action on reaching peace in Donbas and to make a deal with Russia in this regard.

"He's going to make a deal with President Putin. […] He is a reasonable guy. He wants to see peace in Ukraine. I think he'll be coming very soon," he said. (UNIAN : 9 August 2019) (my emphasis)

As I wrote in an earlier blog entry (18 June 2019),

"Zelenskiy will be confronting Putin, with Merkel and Macron ostensibly supporting him whilst they are, in effect, giving Putin exactly what he wants viz. his Russian soldiers and proxies in absolute control of the Donbas whilst elections there are held.

If Zelenskiy should be wary of the hidden agenda of Putin and Macron as regards the implementation of the Minsk2 agreements, he should be even more wary of his upcoming meeting with Manchurian Candidate Donald Trump, the current US president who owes his White House position to Putin." (blog entry)

How, now, can Trump be so sure that Zelenskiy will make a deal with Putin, especially in light of Putin's recent escalation of his war with Ukraine?

The pressure on Zelenskiy is mounting.

Merkel, and in particular Macron, want to get rid of "the monkey of Putin's war with Ukraine" from off their back as the EU lurches towards an economic downturn.

As Wolfgang Münchau (right) reports,

"The EU has only recently emerged from a decade-long crisis and is now facing an economic downturn, a global currency war, a technology shock in the car sector, possibly a no-deal Brexit and an Italian government crisis.
...
The EU is at risk of a vicious circle during the next downturn or financial crisis. It would then become rational for voters and political parties to look at national alternatives to European integration." (Financial Times : 11 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin, similarly, is facing a deepening economic crisis of his own because of his total dependency on the price of oil as a means of cauterizing the swell of demonstrations that are mounting against him and his 'siloviki'.

As reported by Stephanie Kelly (left),

"Oil falls 3% as trade war concerns hit demand outlook

Global oil benchmark Brent futures fell more than 3% on Monday on global growth concerns after U.S. President Donald Trump last week threatened China with more tariffs, which could limit crude demand from the world’s two biggest buyers." (Reuters : 5 August 2019) (my emphasis)

This fall in the price of oil, and the economic downturn that is facing the EU, will be the 'elephants in the room' at the upcoming Normandy format meeting between  Zelenskiy, Putin, Merkel, and Macron.

It will be the 'elephants in the room' that will force the emasculation of the Minsk2 protocols by Macron and Merkel in favour of Putin and against the people of Ukraine.

Zelenskiy will be facing his greatest test at the next Normany Four meeting to discuss the Minsk2 proposals.

(to be continued)

APPENDIX : MINSK2 AGREEMENT

Full text of the Minsk2 agreement: (Wiki)

    1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment  
        as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.

    2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on
        minimum 50  kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70
        kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S,
       Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
        for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
        for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in
         accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
        The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the
        ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
        This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
 
    3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided
       from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
    4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with
       the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts
       of  Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
       Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved
        by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the
       law  "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in
       the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
    5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation
       to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
    6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This
        process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
    7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international
        mechanism.
    8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as
        payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax
        payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
        With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the
        conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

    9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on
       the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts
       of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on
       the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular
       districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine
         under  OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
 
    11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of
          which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,
          agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of
          particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached
         footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
    12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and
          Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of
         particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be
         held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
    13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the
          implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral
         Contact Group.

 (The high-lighted points (2, 9, and 10) are what are now regarded by Merkel and Macron as mere aspirations)

Added to which, we have Putin showering the Donbas with Russian passports for the Ukrainian residents under the occupation of his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies.

Is Zelenskiy on the verge of re-defining critical goals specified in Minsk2?

Hardly had the prison doors shut on the recent Moscow arrests of demonstrators against Putin when, on cue,

"Kyiv says four Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives in the latest clashes with Russia-backed separatists in the country's east.

The Defense Ministry said in a statement that the pro-Russia separatists opened fire at Ukrainian military positions in the Donetsk region on August 6, using grenade-launchers, machine guns, and assault rifles.

"We say with sadness that, as a result of the enemy's attacks today, according to the information in our possession, four of our heroes sustained injuries, to which they succumbed," the statement said." (RFERL : 6 August 2019) (my emphasis)

The immediate response of Ukraine's President Zelenskiy was to,

"...[urge] the leaders of Russia, Germany and France to resume talks on a peaceful solution to the separatist conflict in Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region after four soldiers were killed in shelling on Tuesday." (Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 6 August 2019) (my emphasis)

In the words of Zelenskiy,

"I called him urgently. I told him that this brings us no closer to peace," Zelenskiy said during a news briefing in Kyiv, adding that he had urged Putin to ask the Moscow-backed separatists who are holding parts of eastern Ukraine to "stop killing our people."

He also said Putin had promised him something, details of which would be disclosed later." (RFERL : 7 August 2019) (my emphasis)

RFERL (ibid) further reports that,

"The Kremlin said the two presidents discussed the prospects of cooperation under the so-called Normandy format for negotiations aimed at putting an end to the conflict, and agreed to intensify their work on prisoner exchange."

What is significant, as reported by Max Seddon and Roman Olearchyk (right), is that,

"The Kremlin said Mr Putin had told Mr Zelensky that “de-escalating the conflict foremost requires stopping all further shelling of residential areas in the Donbass by Ukrainian troops, which is creating civilian casualties”. The phone call on Wednesday was the second between the two leaders since Mr Zelensky became president.

Mr Putin also pushed Kiev to give the breakaway areas — which Russia claims not to control despite abundant evidence to the contrary — special status under a potential peace deal, although this would be politically unpalatable in Ukraine." (Financial Times : 7 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Now recall that Vladimir Frolov (left) of 'The Moscow Times' reported that,

"[Zelinskiy believes that] talks with Moscow should take place in the presence of Western mediators, and the Normandy format should be remodeled to include the United States and Great Britain in a "Budapest style format" (The Moscow Times : 24 April, 2019) (my emphasis)

So how does this square with Macron's version of the Normandy format i.e. to be composed ONLY of Zelensky, Putin, Merkel, and himself? 

Furthermore, given that Merkel and Macron are now of the opinion that,

• the withdrawal of Russian forces from the Donbas, 
• disarmament of local proxy forces and 
• restoration of Ukrainian control along the Ukraine-Russia border, 

are merely defined as aspirations, rather than indispensable preconditions to any “elections” in Donetsk-Luhansk (Vladimir Socor :Ukrinform, April 12, 13) (my emphasis), and that Putin will demand special status for the occupied Donbas under a potential peace deal, exactly what are the details of the co-operation that was discussed recently between Putin and Zelinskiy?

Now that Zelenskiy has an army of political 'rookies' in the Rada, is he on the verge of re-defining critical goals of the Minsk2 agreements, just as Merkel and Macron are re-defining them in Putin's favour?

(to be continued)

APPENDIX : MINSK2 AGREEMENT

Full text of the Minsk2 agreement: (Wiki)

    1. Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfilment  
        as of 00:00 midnight EET on 15 February 2015.

    2. Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on
        minimum 50  kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70
        kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S,
       Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems:
        for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact;
        for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in
         accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
        The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the
        ceasefire and finish within 14 days.
        This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
 
    3. Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided
       from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.
    4. On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with
       the Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts
       of  Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," and also about the future of these districts based on the above-mentioned law.
       Without delays, but no later than 30 days from the date of signing of this document, a resolution has to be approved
        by the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine, indicating the territory which falls under the special regime in accordance with the
       law  "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts," based in
       the line set up by the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014.
    5. Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation
       to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
    6. Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This
        process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
    7. Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international
        mechanism.
    8. Define the modalities of a full restoration of social and economic connections, including social transfers, such as
        payments of pensions and other payments (income and revenue, timely payment of communal bills, restoration of tax
        payments within the framework of Ukrainian legal field).
        With this aim, Ukraine will restore management over the segment of its banking system in the districts affected by the
        conflict, and possibly, an international mechanism will be established to ease such transactions.

    9. Restore control of the state border to the Ukrainian government in the whole conflict zone, which has to start on
       the first day after the local election and end after the full political regulation (local elections in particular districts
       of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts based on the law of Ukraine and Constitutional reform) by the end of 2015, on
       the condition of fulfillment of Point 11 – in consultations and in agreement with representatives of particular
       districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group.

    10. Pullout of all foreign armed formations, military equipment, and also mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine
         under  OSCE supervision. Disarmament of all illegal groups.
 
    11. Constitutional reform in Ukraine, with a new constitution to come into effect by the end of 2015, the key element of
          which is decentralisation (taking into account peculiarities of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts,
          agreed with representatives of these districts), and also approval of permanent legislation on the special status of
          particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in accordance with the measures spelt out in the attached
         footnote,[note 1] by the end of 2015.
    12. Based on the Law of Ukraine "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and
          Luhansk Oblasts", questions related to local elections will be discussed and agreed upon with representatives of
         particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Elections will be
         held in accordance with relevant OSCE standards and monitored by OSCE/ODIHR.
    13. Intensify the work of the Trilateral Contact Group including through the establishment of working groups on the
          implementation of relevant aspects of the Minsk agreements. They will reflect the composition of the Trilateral
         Contact Group.

 (The high-lighted points (2, 9, and 10) are what are now regarded by Merkel and Macron as mere aspirations)

Added to which, we have Putin showering the Donbas with Russian passports for the Ukrainian residents under the occupation of his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies.

 

How will Zelensky's political 'rookies' react when Putin ramps up his war with Ukraine?

The long knives are out! As Oliver Carroll writes,

"Volodymyr Zelensky, a 73-per-cent man of the people, is the pied piper of a record-breaking 254 deputies, plucked from the nation.
...
But critics point to the team’s inexperience, and an approach to political enemies that, they say, is not entirely out of sync with 1917. 

...
The prosecutions are mostly being pushed by Andriy Portnov, a powerful lawyer and a former deputy head of the Yanukovych administration. But there are enough informal links – Mr Portnov is close to Andriy Bohdan, Zelensky’s pugnacious chief of staff, and described in some quarters as his teacher – to raise suspicions. " (The Independent : 5 August 2019) (my emphasis)

As Portnov (left) says,

“You’re calling it revenge?” He says. “Well that’s your interpretation. Write that revenge was bleeding from my eyes if you like. I’d prefer to describe it as restoring justice and fulfilling a promise.” (ibid Oliver Carroll) (my emphasis)

And whilst President Zelensky is sharpening his knives against his former opponents, Christopher Miller reports that,

"The presidential campaign of Volodymyr Zelenskiy denied hiring a Washington lobbying firm to burnish his image in the U.S. capital, but one such firm recently reported being paid nearly $70,000 to do just that for the team of the newly elected Ukrainian president.

Lobbying firm Signal Group Consulting, LLC, filed a disclosure report with the U.S. Department of Justice on July 17 that showed work done on behalf of Zelenskiy in Washington between April 3 and May 21, a period of time that included the presidential runoff that Zelenskiy won and the day he took the oath of office." (RFERL : 2 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Which raises the critical question :-

"Will the voters, who thought that they were voting against corruption and for a new broom, get what  they hoped for."

And, as demonstrations against Putin's rule continue to surface in Moscow (BBC 27 July 2019,  Aljazeera 3 August 2019), and Putin views his opponents as heeding Zelensky's call" ... to see what is “possible” if one does what Ukraine is doing and offering Ukrainian citizenship to those, including Russians, who are struggling against authoritarian regimes", is it not inevitable that Putin will re-focus his anger against Ukraine?

This is perhaps best illustrated by,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on August 4 mounted six attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "Proscribed weapons – 82mm mortars – were used in one instance," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation (JFO) Headquarters said in an update posted on Facebook as of 07:00 Kyiv time on August 5, 2019." (UNIAN : 5 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"The OSCE's Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine in their report said their monitors had recorded a number of heavy weapons, banned by the Minsk Agreements, in the area of Luhansk region controlled by Russian-led forces." (UNIAN : 2 August 2019) (my emphasis)

Whilst as yet not veering away from the military stance against Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies in the Donbas, President Zelensky should tread carefully, especially with a politically naive Rada majority that has needed to go to a 'boot camp' for training as 'politicians'.

As Margaryta Chornokondratenko and Natalia Zinets write,

" [Zelensky] did not allow former lawmakers to run on his party’s ticket. Instead, the slate ran the gamut from a wedding photographer to a world champion Greco-Roman wrestler. 
...

The new lawmakers gathered in a hotel conference hall in the town of Truskavets in the Carpathian foothills for a week-long course, where classes last from 9 in the morning to 10 at night." (Reuters : 31 July 2019) (my emphasis)

How will these political 'rookies' of Zelensky react when Putin tries to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their ongoing economic hardships and political oppression by ramping up his war with Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)

What 'peace' talks can Putin and Zelensky have given the nature of current events?

The dust has settled on Ukraine's election, and Zelensky has received the control over Ukraine's Rada that he sought shortly after his victory to become President of Ukraine.

In many ways, the success of Zelensky's party represents phase two of the Maidan revolution of 2014.

Phase one was the overthrow of Yanukovich, and the buildup, executed by Poroshenko, of powerful armed forces that held the line against Putin's invasion of the Donbas, and his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea.

Poroshenko also laid the groundwork for the free and fair elections that ultimately led to his downfall and the rise of Zelenskiy and his "Servant Of The People" party which now, effectively, controls Ukraine's Rada.

And falling into Zelensky's lap, like a ripe apple, Nastassia Astrasheuskaya and Henry Foy inform us that,

"Russia could miss the deadline to begin pumping gas to Europe through the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, unless Denmark approves construction in its waters in the next few weeks.
...
"If we do not get approval from the Danish in the next few weeks then we will not make the deadline," a senior official close to Nord Stream 2 told the Financial Times. A second source close to the project said the next month would be critical. "It is almost August and that creates concern if not panic," the person said." (Financial Times : 28 July 2019) (my emphasis)

 As Roman Olearchyk (left) also writes,

Igor Burakovsky, head of Kiev’s Institute for Economic Research and Policy  Consulting, said, "Mr Zelensky’s team was inheriting a “great starting position”, with the economy growing following a deep plunge that followed Russia’s 2014 invasion." (Financial Times: 22 July, 2019) (my emphasis) 

But he also sounds a note of caution, stating that,

“With the presidency, parliament, prime minister and cabinet now under his control, Volodymyr Zelensky will have little excuse for not pushing through a reform agenda to boost Ukraine’s deflated economy.”
....
"...the president has also caused consternation with some of his pronouncements during the parliamentary election campaign. His recent call to purge officials who served under his predecessor was condemned by G7 countries. Business is concerned by this weekend’s probe into a domestic steel mill owned by top investor Arcelor Mittal, which Mr Zelensky accused of polluting his hometown city, Kryviy Rih." (ibid Roman Olearchyk) (my emphasis)

Now recall that,

“On the question of reaching peace agreements with Russia, we [i.e. Ukraine's new President, Volodymyr Zelensky] are considering holding a popular referendum,” Andriy Bogdan said.(Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

YouTube : 25 May, 2019 (Full Video)

One could argue that Zelensky has had his 'referendum', and the people of Ukraine have spoken.

"Peace", however, is simply not on Putin's mind.

 As UNIAN informs us,

"Moscow-backed forces in the Donbas warzone continue planting Russia-made landmines, proscribed by international conventions, says the report published on Ukraine defense ministry's website. "The command of the Russian occupation forces is taking measures to build up fortifications at forward positions of the units of the 1st (Donetsk) and 2nd (Luhansk) army corps of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation," reads the report referring to Ukrainian intelligence data." (UNIAN : 25 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by The South China Morning Post,

"Ukraine on Thursday seized a Russian tanker it said was used in a naval confrontation last November amid sensitive prisoner swap talks between the two countries who have been at loggerheads since 2014.
...
Ukrainian analyst Sergiy Solodky said the move likely took Russia by surprise, saying Moscow had hoped for Kiev to have a softer position on Russia after Zelensky took office in May.
...
“This will provoke an angry reaction from the Russian leadership,” he said." (SCMP : 26 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Adding to Putin's anger over the seizure of his tanker is the fact that after a long period of silence, Putin's opponents staged a demonstration two days ago in Moscow that led to the detention of more than one thousand protestors.

As reported by the BBC,

"Police in Moscow have detained more than 1,000 people at a rally, in one of the biggest crackdowns in years. Demonstrators were dragged away from the city hall as security forces used batons against the crowd. People were protesting against the exclusion of opposition candidates from local polls. The opposition say they were barred for political reasons." (BBC : 27 July 2019) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin views this demonstration as somewhat linked to Zelensky's call on others in the post-Soviet countries,

" ... to see what is “possible” if one does what Ukraine is doing and offering Ukrainian citizenship to those, including Russians, who are struggling against authoritarian regimes.
To the extent he follows through on these words, Kseniya Kirillova says, he will be conducting “an active information war” against the Kremlin and “will be struggling not so much for territory as for the hearts and minds of those who live there”" (Paul Goble (right): Window on Eurasia : 7 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

Given now that Putin has vented his rage on Navalny by incarcerating him for supporting the Moscow demonstration (c.f. above), and whose incarceration has led to him being rushed to hospital with a 'mysterious' illness (recall the poisoning of Yushchenko), will Putin now sit down with Zelensky and talk peace?

What 'peace' talks can Putin and Zelensky have given the nature of these current events?

(to be continued)

How far Zelenskiy will accomodate Putin will be decided this coming Sunday

As we move inexorably towards the coming elections on Sunday in Ukraine, one thing is becoming clear.

Putin is playing an astute political game with President Zelensky, and it seems as though Zelensky is falling headlong into Putin's diplomatic trap.

Let us first remind ourselves of the numerous 'ceasefires' in the Donbas, since 2014, that have, in many instances, lasted only a few hours.

Indeed, these 'ceasefires' have become both a military and political strategic tool employed by Putin and his proxies in his war with Ukraine.

And now, in the words of the Moscow Times, we are told that,

"Russia, Ukraine and Europe’s top security body have announced an “indefinite” ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that analysts hail as a substantial step toward ending the five-year conflict." (Moscow Times : 18 July 2019) (my emphasis)

What is politically significant about this 'indefinite ceasefire' is that it will commence on the very day that the coming elections are held in Ukraine.

As reported by the Moscow Times (ibid),

"The sides have agreed to lay down arms starting midnight this Sunday, July 21, Russia, Ukraine and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) — which collectively make up the Trilateral Contact Group — announced in a statement, with the participation of representatives of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions."

In a simultaneous move, Putin has now announced,

"... a simpler procedure for granting Russian citizenship to Ukrainians,” the statement said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Putin’s order on Thursday “a well-argued decision” made after multiple requests from residents of separatist self-proclaimed East Ukrainian republics." (Natalia Zinets, Maria Tsvetkova and Thomas Balmforth : Reuters : 18 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Kurt Volker's (right) [ Special US representative in Ukraine] reponse to this announcement of Putin about 'simplifying the procedure for granting citizenship to Ukrainians, points out that,

"Russia’s move to fast-track the granting of citizenship to all residents of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk runs counter to efforts to achieve peace in an armed conflict that is in its sixth year.

Volker said that by expediting Russian passports for Ukrainian citizens, the measure “flies in the face [of] the spirit of the Minsk agreements,” (RFERL : 19 July 2019) (my emphasis)

Nikolaus von Twickel (left), a former member of the OSCE monitoring mission in eastern Ukraine, also cautioned that,

"...  the [proposed] truce could break down at any moment, as it has in the past. Additionally, he said Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s newcomer Volodymyr Zelenskiy were pursuing their own interests ahead of parliamentary elections in Ukraine this Sunday.

“Russia’s aim is to increase the results of pro-Russian parties in Ukraine before the Rada elections. [Meanwhile,] Zelenskiy shows Ukrainians that under him there will be more progress than there was under [ex-president Petro] Poroshenko,” von Twickel told The Moscow Times." (ibid Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

Let us now remind ourselves that,

“On the question of reaching peace agreements with Russia, we [i.e. Ukraine's new President, Volodymyr Zelensky] are considering holding a popular referendum,” Andriy Bogdan said."(Natalia Zinets : Reuters : 21 May, 2019) (my emphasis)

YouTube : 25 May, 2019 (Full Video)

"Yesterday, president Zelensky already said that this referendum will be informational ... It will not be obligatory [Questioner: Just like a consulting procedure] ... Consulting ..and ... this idea of this referendum is clear ... President Zelensky .. he wants support from the people for his peace initiative ..."

So this referendum will not be about seeking advice from the people of Ukraine, nor will it [be] about making a decision about the  Zelensky 'peace' process." (blog entry :27 May 2019)

It would now seem that Zelenskiy's former 'referendum'  proposal has now morphed into "Elect my party and we will have an 'indefinite ceasefire' "

But, as Nikolaus von Twickel points out, " .... the [proposed] truce could break down at any moment, as it has [done] in the past"

Zelenskiy's fate as President of Ukraine now hinges on the results of the upcoming general election in Ukraine this coming Sunday.

(to be continued)