Zelensky should be aware that like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

In 2014 the Maidan Revolution of Dignity led to the ousting of the then president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich , who was then helped by Putin to escape into his arms, and who now still resides in Russia under the protection of Putin.

And in 2014, Putin's anger at the ousting of Yanukovich boiled over, and he invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and started his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

Two years later, in 2016, at the Republican National Convention that choose Donald Trump to be their US presidential candidate Paul Manafort, Trump's then campaign chair and chief strategist, sought to overturn then US President Obama's support for the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas, and Ukraine's regaining of Crimea.

Diana Denman (left), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing  sanctions [introduced by President Obama] against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military." (cf. Josh Rogin)

As then reported by Josh Rogin (right) at the 2016 Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

This "behind the scenes" effort was orchestrated by none other than Paul Manafort, who is now languishing in a US prison.

Fast forward to today and we have the 'thread of the Revolution of Dignity of Maidan' once again beginning to take centre-stage in the upcoming US presidential election of 2020.

 As now revealed in the upcoming release of the book, "The Room Where It Happened",  by Trump's former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, Trump not only tried to 'shake down Ukraine's President Zelensky for 'dirt' on Joe Biden, his opponent in the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections, but also sought the help of Chinese President Xi Jinping to win his re-election.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"President Donald Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton writes in his upcoming memoir that Trump sought Chinese President Xi Jinping's help in winning re-election during a closed-door meeting in June 2019, according to a report in the New York Times on Wednesday.

Trump reportedly asked the Chinese leader during trade negotiations at a summit in Osaka, Japan to buy more agricultural products in order to help him win farm states in the November general election." (Aljazeera : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : 18 June 2020 (Brian Williams)

Brian Williams also reveals that,

"... Bolton also writes about House Democrats efforts to impeach the president for abuse of power for holding up security aid [to Ukraine] while pressuring [Zelensky] Ukraine to publicly announce investigations into the Biden's .." (ibid MSNBC video above)

The revelations in Bolton's book, exposing as it does the 'shakedown' of Zelensky by Trump during that fateful telephone conversation between them in July of last year, is now causing Trump's re-election strategy to have severe headaches.

CNBC : 25 September 2019

It is therefore no coincidence that, having had a copy of John Bolton's book for vetting purposes before its release, without warning his generals NOR the German Government, Trump suddenly announced the pullout of 10000 US troops from Germany.

As reported by the New York Times (Associated Press),

"President Donald Trump said Monday he is ordering a major reduction in U.S. troop strength in Germany, a move widely criticized by members of his own party as a gift to Russia and a threat to U.S. national security." (New York Times : 16 June 2020) (my emphasis)

DW : Youtube 6 June 2020

The response of the Pentagon to Trump's 'gift to Putin' was to,

"The United States plans to give Ukraine $250 million through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for training and equipment to strengthen the country’s ability defend itself against Russia, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

The funds for fiscal 2020 are being sent to deter “Russian aggression,” the Pentagon said in a statement." (Mike Stone : Reuters : 11 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The U.S. State Department has cleared a potential sale to Ukraine of 16 Mark VI patrol boats and other gear worth $600 million, it was announced Wednesday.
...
Along with the modern and fast patrol boats, the sale includes various weapons, sensors and communications gear to deter Russia from muscling Ukraine in the contested Kerch Strait and key ports along the Azov Sea." ( Joe Gould  :  Defense News : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

If these developments are not enough to send Putin into an apoplectic rage, then the current fall in the price of oil should.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Oil prices fell around 1% on Thursday as a spike in new coronavirus cases in China and the United States renewed fears that a recovery in fuel demand could stall, even as lockdowns ease." (UNIAN : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

To protect himself against the corona-virus; Putin may have erected a 'disinfection tunnel' through which all his visitors have to pass before meeting with him but he cannot protect himself and his 'siloviki' from falling oil prices.

As reported by The Economic Times,

"Visitors meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at his country residence must first pass through a walk-through device that sprays them with disinfectant, to protect him from the coronavirus, officials said." (The Economic Times : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time as the price of oil is falling, RFE/RL reports that,

"The German government has "noted with regret" a U.S. proposal to expand sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
"New sanctions would constitute a serious interference in European energy security and EU sovereignty," a statement by the Foreign Ministry said on June 14." RFE/RL : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

The German economy, under the corona-virus lock-down in so many countries that it exports to, is beginning to seriously tremble. (cf also: Svar Nanan-Sen : Express: 7 June 2020)

For Zelensky, US military aid and the falling price of oil should give him some comfort.

But this comfort should not be taken for granted.

Like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

Zelensky should be constantly aware of this incontrovertible political fact.

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!!

"Despite pandemics, economic stagnation, and multiple domestic and foreign crises, Russia continues its war against Ukraine and even fabricates new threats.  Since it has become clear that the Minsk process, the process based on agreements there in 2015 is not going anywhere, Russia is raising the ante.  Because it cannot induce or compel Ukraine politically to sign its own death warrant and convert itself into a confederacy where Russian agents from the Donbass would have veto power over Kyiv's government, Moscow has alighted upon a new tactic.  As it has done in Georgia, it is now issuing hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to residents of the Donbass in preparation for the formal incorporation of the territory into the Russian state." (Real Clear Defense : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

So wrote Stephen Blank (right) in an article that fully exposes the intention of Putin to dismember Ukraine and incorporate the Donbas (and where next??) into Russia, as was done with Crimea.

Even more significantly, Stephen Blank reveals that,

"Therefore, it is no surprise that Ukrainian sources report that the Crimea situation is developing towards the capture of Ukraine territories that give access to water from the Dnieper River. Russia has increased the military contingent in and around Crimea to about a reported 80,000 troops and concentrated its engineering units in the north of the Crimea."

Putin has not shifted his gaze from conquering a land-bridge between Russia and Ukraine.

Is the invasion of Mariupol next on Putin's war agenda?

Is Zelensky now playing 'political roulette'?

Vitaliy Syzov writes that,

"Zelenskyy’s critics claim to see growing evidence of Kremlin influence throughout government.

They cite the recent attempts to  

• appoint toxic figures with ties to the pro-Russian administration of disgraced ex-president Viktor Yanukovych, 
• and question Zelenskyy’s moderate stance on the traditionally thorny issues of language policy and national memory.  
• Meanwhile, his one-sided efforts to reinvigorate the stalled peace process through repeated concessions to the Kremlin continue to generate deep suspicion." (Atlantic Council : 4 June 2020) (my emphasis

Furthermore, according to Vitaliy Syzov,
"... the former comedian has attempted to emphasize less politically explosive themes such as economic growth, the fight against corruption, and personal freedoms in business and private life. At the same time, he has made the intensification of peace negotiations the number one priority of his presidency." (ibid Vitaliy Syzov) (my emphasis)

That Zelensky's may be failing in his peace negotiations with Putin is best expressed in the words of  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, (left) who recently denied that,

"... Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has underestimated the challenge of achieving peace with Russia.

Talking to DW, Kuleba said Zelenskiy "fully realizes how difficult it is to make a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin and make him withdraw from Ukraine and de-occupy Donbass." (DW : 2 June 2020) (my emphasis)

DW 2 June 2020

In his interview on DW (above), Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that,

"We understand that the United States is currently in a difficult situation and we support American democracy. We hope that all these issues will be left behind with American standards of Human Rights and democratic government. And I'm absolutely confident that the partnership between the United States and Ukraine can not be shattered."

Whilst true that the US-Ukraine partnership cannot be shattered, nonetheless it is also true that US President Trump has a strange affection for (fear of?) Putin that also cannot be denied.

One merely has to recollect the political fallout of that fateful telephone conversation between Trump and Zelensky in July of last year, Trump's accolytes continuing to try and find Ukrainian 'dirt' on Biden and his son, and Trump vowing that the Biden-Ukraine connection will take  centre stage in his current re-election attempt.

Trump-Zelensky Call (Youtube)

It is therefore interesting to note Ilya Zhegulev (left) reporting that,

"An audit of thousands of old case files by Ukrainian prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Hunter Biden, the former prosecutor general [Ruslan Ryaboshapka (right)] who had launched the audit, told Reuters.

“I specifically asked prosecutors to check especially carefully those facts about Biden’s alleged involvement. They answered that there was nothing of the kind,” he added." (Reuters : 4 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet, as reported by Ukraine Today on 20 May 2020,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for an investigation Wednesday of leaked recordings purportedly depicting then-Vice President Joe Biden telling Zelensky’s predecessor Petro Poroshenko that his country would receive U.S. aid once top prosecutor Viktor Shokin was replaced.
...


Andriy Derkach (left), a member of Ukraine’s parliament, released the recordings a day earlier.
...
 Derkach was “previously aligned with a pro-Russian faction and has past links to Russian intelligence.” Derkach’s father reportedly worked for the KGB — and was allegedly terminated amid a scandal “over a Ukrainian journalist who was kidnapped and murdered.”

Poroshenko reportedly blamed Russia for the leak, calling the audio “bogus” and seeking an investigation of the leak itself." (Ukraine Today : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

As yet we do not know if Zelensky has ordered an investigation into the leak itself.

What we do know is that there has been a "flurry" of calls between Trump and Putin during this Corona-Virus pandemic.

As reported by Julian Borger (left),

"Donald Trump has offered to invite Vladimir Putin to an expanded G7 meeting in September, but the invitation has already been adamantly opposed by the UK and Canada.
...
Trump raised the possibility of inviting Russia on Saturday, after the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, had made clear she would not attend the Camp David summit." (The Guardian : 1 June 2020) (my emphasis) 

This invitation extended by Trump towards Putin should be viewed against the backdrop of Trump's falling popularity among the American electorate.  

 MSNBC : 4 June 2020

Also bear in mind that the upcoming US presidential election is only 5 months away, and Trump is now pulling out all the stops as his administration is beset with public demonstrations across the country.

Indeed, one may ask whether Trump is taking a leaf out of the book of Putin in drastically quelling the right of the public to protest.

 MSNBC 4  June 2020

Zelensky should bear in mind that the upcoming US presidential election is in 5 months time.

At this stage, Zelensky's call on 20 May to investigate a "leaked tape" that purportedly implicates Trump's presidential rival, Joe Biden, and that Zelensky said at a news conference in Ukraine that the contents of the leaked conversations “might be perceived, qualified as high treason” (ibid Ukraine Today), can only be viewed as playing Political Roulette, a political act that is potentially very dangerous to himself.

Is Zelensky now playing 'political roulette'?

(to be continued)

Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

UNICEF, the UN Children's Agency, have reported (20 May 2020) that,

"At a time when children and families in eastern Ukraine are living under COVID-19 related movement restrictions, an increase in shelling has resulted in numerous child casualties and damaged schools in the region, making life even more unbearable for the approximately 430,000 children caught up in the six-year long conflict, UNICEF said today.

Six children were injured at home after their villages came under shelling during the first week of May alone. One incident severely injured three young girls, two of them sisters, aged 7 and 10 years old and the other a friend, also aged 7." (UNICEF : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This report of UNICEF is backed up by a summary report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine that included,

• "Compared with the previous reporting period, the Mission recorded more ceasefire violations in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

•  It saw mines, including some for the first time, near Maiorsk and Petrivske and in Zaitseve, Holmivskyi, and Staromykhailivka.   

• The SMM’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted.*" (OSCE Report : 23 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Further confirming the uptick of attacks by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, a video released by the Ukrainian military shows what it claims is a team of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) snipers operating in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : 20 May 2020)

And against this backdrop of Putin's escalation of his war with Ukraine in  the Donbas, Oliver Carroll reports that,

"On Wednesday, in his annual news conference (20 May 2020)

• Gone was the easy style of the previous year’s meeting –... During the 3 hour affair, the president’s demeanour was harder, more defensive, and plenty more irritable.
• Mr Zelensky was angry with the journalists. He snapped when they asked about a colleague who was denied accreditation to the event: “He penetrated the presidential motorcade and you have to question his upbringing,” the president said. 
• An even stranger exchange followed when he was asked why so many of his inexperienced friends were being rewarded with high office. “These are people I trust,” Mr Zelensky replied, before turning to the journalist in question: “And what about you? I’m making you an offer to work with me. Choose your position and answer for your actions.” (The Independent : 21 May 2020) (my emphasis)

At this press conference Zelensky also unveiled,

" ... the existence of Plan B and Plan C on Donbas, but the Minsk agreements remain a priority. "I'm giving myself a few more months to resolve this, so that we find this diplomatic way out of the situation under the Minsk agreements," he said at a press conference on the first year of his presidency ...
...
As for 'Minsk' and this track, we will fight for it to the end, because sanctions against the Russian Federation are connected with the Minsk agreements. And you know everyone wants to lift them – not only Russia, but also many European countries. I know their economies are also suffering over these sanctions. But, as I said, we will fight for them for a year," he said." (UNIAN : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

But what does, "... we will fight for them (sanctions against Putin's Russia) for a year ..." really mean??

Adding even more confusion, does "the existence of Plan B and Plan C" include the wholesale scrapping of the Minsk2 agreements??

Maybe .... just maybe ...the fact that Oleksiy Reznikov (right), Ukraine's current Vice Prime Minister, has stated that,

"The Ukrainian side is  

• looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020), and

• that those Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to them, thus suddenly conferring upon them the status of 'Russian representatives',  

gives us a clue as to what may be contained in Plan B or Plan C.

Zelensky may have postponed the Ukraine-Russia peace summit until after the corona virus pandemic has subsided.  (The Brussels Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, has not 'postponed' his ramping up of his war with Ukraine.

Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

As Duncan Allan's (left) summary of  his "The Minsk Conundrum" so explicitly points out,

• The Minsk agreements of September 2014 and February 2015, which sought to end Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine, rest on two irreconcilable interpretations of Ukraine’s sovereignty – what could be called the ‘Minsk conundrum’: is Ukraine sovereign, as Ukrainians insist, or should its sovereignty be limited, as Russia demands?

• Russia sees the Minsk agreements as tools with which to break Ukraine’s sovereignty. Its interpretation reverses key elements in the sequence of actions: elections in occupied Donbas would take place before Ukraine had reclaimed control of the border; this would be followed by comprehensive autonomy for Russia’s proxy regimes, crippling the central authorities in Kyiv. Ukraine would be unable to govern itself effectively or orient itself towards the West. (Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Which political road will Zelensky choose?

(to be continued)

Will not Oleksiy Reznikov's 'legal-sleigh-of-hand' tighten Putin's grip over the Donbas?

In an article entitled, "Failure of oil price war may cost Putin dear", David Gardner (left) writes that,

"Igor Sechin, chief of Rosneft, the state oil company, and long one of Russia’s most powerful men, wrote to Mr Putin last year, before Moscow changed tack on Opec+, complaining that its output restraints had “created a preferential advantage for the US . . . which has become a strategic threat to Russia’s oil industry development”.

If Mr Putin did indeed buy the Sechin thesis, that was surely a mistake. ... But Opec+ is not delivering." Financial Times : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)

The Intelligence Unit of  'The Economist' now forecast that,

"Tensions with the West are high and we expect EU and US sanctions to remain in place in 2020-24. 
...
Russia has become more resilient to external shocks since 2014, but the dual shock of collapsed global oil prices and deteriorating domestic demand amid the coronavirus outbreak will result in an economic contraction of 5.2% in 2020." (The Economist Intelligence Unit : 19 May 2020) (my emphasis)


More disconcerting for Putin, The Moscow Times have just reported that,

"Russian GDP Falls 28% in April

The Russian economy contracted by more than a quarter in April, calculations based on official government statistics have shown. Using the first batch of official data on the damage from the coronavirus and Russia’s nationwide shutdown of the economy, Russia’s GDP in April was 28% smaller in nominal terms than in the same period last year, economists said. " (The Moscow Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Putin is now trying to use the corona-virus pandemic to have EU and US sanctions against him and his 'siloviki' lifted.

Having previously failed in his argument that, "sanctions hinder the fight against the corona, trying to win hearts of certain EU member states" (UNIAN:19 May 2020), Putin is now desperately, "planning to act through the platform of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), "the structure Moscow pretty much fully controls." (ibid UNIAN)

As reported by UNIAN,

"The statement [of the CIS prime ministers’ meeting on May 29] will urge all countries to abandon trade wars, unilateral sanctions introduced bypassing the UNSC, and other measures of economic pressure or coercion on the part of certain state actors against others. Signatories will reaffirm their intention to seek free, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable conditions for trade and investment," the leaked draft shows." (UNIAN: 19 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin's panic as his Russian economy falls around his knees is, according to Sarah Rainsford, causing him to,

" ... run out of patience with coronavirus.

On Monday he sent millions of workers back to factories and building sites across Russia, declaring six weeks of full lockdown over.

 BBC: 15 May

Regional leaders have been left to manage exactly how and when they lift the remaining restrictions, with the infection rate still stubbornly high - especially in Moscow." (BBC News : 15 May 2020) (my emphasis)

BBC: 15 May

And against this backdrop of a failing Health System and a collapsing economy in Russia, Putin continues to lash out against Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 18 mounted 11 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed formations violated the ceasefire 11 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 19, 2020." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And yet ... and yet ...

"LPR", "DPR" envoys in Minsk talks have status of persons "invited" by Russia, Ukrainian official stresses" .. so screams the UNIAN headline.

"The Ukrainian side is looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020) (my emphasis)

The fact that Ukraine has always insisted that, ".. any direct negotiations with Russian-controlled militants are off the table", and that these Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to thousands of Donbas Ukrainians, do these illegal passports of Putin's 'militants' now suddenly confer upon them the status of 'Russian representatives'???

So, it would seem, according to

 (i)  Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister,
(ii)  Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories,
(iii) First Deputy Representative of Ukraine to the Trilateral Contact Group for the Donbas settlement,  

Oleksiy Reznikov (left).

This 'legal sleigh-of-hand' in bringing Putin's Donbas militant proxies to the consulting process,  ostensibly to 'satisfy' all the conditions of the Minsk2 protocols, smacks of nothing more nor less than to hold aloft a Donbas Peace Plan, similar to the one held aloft by Neville Chamberlain in 1939, and signed by Adolf Hitler.

Yet it was precisely the actions of the Putin-controlled representatives of certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the predecessors of the current "holders of Russian passports" representatives that Oleksiy Reznikov now views as "legal Russian representatives", that allowed Putin to spark of his war with Ukraine in the Donbas in the first place.

History, it would seem, is repeating itself.

Putin will simply NOT allow his grip over areas of the Donbas and Ukraine's Crimea to be released.

The critical question is,

"Will not Oleksiy Reznikov's 'legal-sleigh-of-hand' tighten Putin's grip over the Donbas?"

(to be continued)

Will Putin now invade Ukraine at Mariupol?

UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 9 mounted 17 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed groups violated the ceasefire 17 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 10, 2020." (UNIAN : 10 May 2020) (my emphasis)

These attacks by Putin's hybrid military forces in the Donbas follow those on the 8 May, in which four Ukrainian soldiers were wounded. (UNIAN : 9 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This continuous violation of the ceasefire by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas comes against the backdrop of a record rise of corona-virus infections in Putin's Russia.

As reported by BBC News,

"In the last 24 hours [Russia] reported a record daily rise of 11,656 cases, bringing the official total to 221,344." (BBC News : 11 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding that only Spain and the US now have more reported infections Putin, nonetheless, has declared that,

"... from Tuesday (12 May) the nationwide coronavirus lockdown will be eased and businesses will go back to work. " (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

BBC News 11 May

As I wrote in my blog entry of 21 April 2020,

"... As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine."

as the UNIAN reports above (9 and 10 May) confirms.

As also reported by Jessica Resnick-Ault (left),

"Oil dropped 4% to below $30 a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles ticked up and diesel inventories swelled, offsetting OPEC-led cuts in production and hopes for a recovery in demand as some countries ease coronavirus lockdowns." (Reuters : 6 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin eases his lock-down of the Russian economy, a strategic adviser to the United States, political analyst Molly McKew (right), argues that,

"The Russian policy of granting citizenship to the population of a neighboring state poses a threat to international security; therefore, the EU and NATO need to develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such hybrid Russian interventions.
..
... in the light of recent changes proposed by the President of the Russian Federation to the law on granting citizenship and develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such Russian policy." (Guildhall : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis) (translated using Google Translate)

As the Chief of Ukraine's Permanent Mission to the United Nations, Ambassador Serhiy Kyslytsya (left) reported to the UN Security Council in February of this year,

"Russia has issued over 200,000 passports to Ukrainians living in the occupied parts of Donbas.
...
Russia also pursues illegal passportization in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas, which has now reached an industrial level – more than 200,000 persons were issued Russian passports there," the envoy told a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting in New York City on February 18." (UNIAN : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This illegal passportization of Putin now carries a greater danger for Ukraine in light of the rising corona-virus infections in Russia.

The corona-virus epidemic in Putin's Russia is throwing into a tailspin Putin's plans to increase the declining population of Russia. (cf: Lilya Palveleva and Robert Coalson : RFERL : 12 Jan 2020 and Michael Kofman : Texas National Security Review : 4 Feb 2020)

Putin now sees the incorporation of  yet more of Ukraine into his "Novorossiya" pipe-dream as a matter of even greater urgency; as a means to increase the population of Russia.

Of this Zelensky should be aware.
 

Let us recall that in my blog entry (27/12/2017) I stated that,

"Putin's military build-up of tanks in the Donbas is a prelude to attack Mariupol, specifically to gain that land-bridge with Ukrainian Crimea that he so desperately needs to further consolidate his hold over Ukrainian Crimea."

Could the sweeping corona-virus epidemic in Russia be the Black Swan event that tips Putin into invading Ukraine at Mariupol?

(to be continued)

Zelensky has time on his side. Putin does not.

Even as the Covid-19 virus is causing the Russian economy to fall around Putin's knees, and his international political strategy lies in tatters before him, nonetheless,

"Russia is planning to open the huge [Resurrection of Christ Cathedral, a military monument to the Soviet victory in the second world war], with mosaics depicting Vladimir Putin and Joseph Stalin, as well as the annexation of Crimea, on the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany next month." (Andrew Roth : The Guardian : 27 April 2020) (my emphasis)

For the time being, however, due to these mosaic panels becoming public, and their 'controversial nature', they were removed, leaving empty spaces where they should have been placed. (BBC: 1 May 2020)

As these mosaic panels were being removed, Lavrov (Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister), French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas, and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, held a 'video' Normandy Four conference on 30 April.

 Lavrov, Le Drian, Maas, & Kuleba

As reported by Henry Meyer and Daryna Krasnolutska,

"Fragile hopes of ending the six-year conflict in Ukraine that might pave the way to an easing of European sanctions on Russia have evaporated as Moscow and Kyiv find themselves in renewed deadlock." (Bloomberg : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)
 
The four-way talks focused on the implementation of a 2015 Minsk II peace agreement for eastern Ukraine that was signed in Minsk and brokered by France and Germany.

Vladimir Isachenkov (right) further reports that :-

•  Lavrov [ ] noted that the Ukrainian authorities have continued to shun direct dialogue with the rebels, stymieing peace efforts. He emphasized that such negotiations are essential for implementing earlier agreements that envisaged a broad autonomy for the rebel regions.
•  Kuleba rejected Lavrov's arguments, insisting that Ukraine will not talk to the “illegal formations.”
• Maas said that many of the elements agreed in Minsk and Paris have yet to be implemented. “These compromises, which are the result of long and hard negotiations, mustn’t be destroyed"
• And rather lamely, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said in a statement that participants agreed to call for a cease-fire. (ABC News : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)

EU sanctions against Putin for his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine, have not been removed.

As the EU spokesperson for the European Commission Peter Stano (left) stated on 6th April,

"The European Union leadership says there is no issue in keeping sanctions against Russia in place amid the coronavirus pandemic because they do not hamper Russia’s capabilities to address the outbreak..sanctions "do not prevent Russia from tackling coronavirus outbreak." (Tass :6 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Underlining the fact that sanctions do not prevent Russia from tackling the coronavirus outbreak is the fact that,

"Moscow has expanded its military actions on the Black Sea, not to compete with other international players who are too strong for that but rather to try to end trade in Ukrainian ports, something that weakens Kyiv and gives Moscow additional leverage in Ukraine.

...

Russia’s “final goal” remains unchanged: the installation in Kyiv of a pro-Russian government under Moscow’s control, Danilyuk says. To that end, it is prepared to compromise the rights of Ukrainians on the occupied territories in terms of land ownership and put them at greater risk of infection from the pandemic." (Oleksandr Danilyuk (right): Window on Eurasia : 22 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Further underscoring that sanctions do not prevent Putin from putting more resources into tackling the corona virus outbreak in Russia,

"Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin (left) has signed an order increasing the salaries of those in the Russian Guard and other organs of internal affairs serving in Moscow and St. Petersburg and in Moscow and Leningrad Oblasts by as much as 100 percent when they are deployed to maintain “public order”" (Window on Eurasia : (https://ehorussia.com/new/node/20677 (use Google Translate): 25 April 2020) (my emphasis)

This action of Mishutin indicates that Putin is wary that the growing economic hardship of the Russian people, coupled with a collapsing oil-price and an avalanche of small businesses going bankrupt, spells danger to his vice-like grip on Russian society.

Putin may have cleared the streets of protestors ...  but he cannot eradicate the number of growing online protest actions.

 Youtube : 28 April 2020

  

Zelensky has time on his side. Putin does not.

(to be continued)

Zelensky must not take his eyes off Ukraine's war with Putin during this corona-virus epidemic

Putin's worst nightmare has arrived. This nightmare is best summed up by the following heading ..

So reported Patti Dom (20 April 2020). 

"The oil industry is in its worst crisis since at least the Great Depression (of the 1930's), according to analysts.

There’s too much oil, and nobody wants to buy any more. Planes aren’t flying, shipping has slowed, and U.S. consumers, who use 10% of the world’s oil output in their cars, are now staying at home." (CNBC : 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet as recently as 12 April, BBC Business reported that,

"Opec producers and allies have agreed a record oil deal that will slash global output by about 10% after a slump in demand caused by coronavirus lockdowns.

The deal, agreed on Sunday via video conference, is the largest cut in oil production ever to have been agreed." (BBC Business : 12 April 2020) (my emphasis)

This level of oil-price volatility is still further depressing Putin's Russian economy.

As reported by Energyworld, Putin's

" ... National Wealth Fund has sufficient reserves to last until 2024 if oil prices remain at current levels, the TASS news agency quoted Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as saying on Sunday.
" (Energyworld : 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

 However, Energyworld further reports that,

"Russia's economy will show "seriously negative figures for the second quarter", former economy minister Maxim Oreshkin (right), an aide to President Vladimir Putin, was quoted as saying by TASS." (ibid Energyworld) (my emphasis)

If the corona virus and the volatility of the price of oil is causing Putin to have nightmares, adding to his woes is the fact that,

"On April 20, 2020, Ukraine is taking over the Chairmanship of the OSCE Forum for Security Cooperation from Turkey."Our State will be the first to chair the Forum online, taking into account the situation associated with the COVID-19 pandemic," the Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) of Ukraine said in a statement on the beginning of Ukraine's presidency in the OSCE Forum for Security Co-operation (FSC)." (UNIAN: 20 April 2020) (my emphasis)

Ukraine will be bringing to the fore,

" .... modern challenges to regional and international security, primarily hybrid threats, militarization and impediment of navigation in the Azov and Black Sea region ..." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

But what effect will Ukraine's chairmanship of the OSCE have on the continuous attacks by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers on the Ukrainian forces in the Donbas? 

As reported by UNIAN,

" The number of attacks by Russia's hybrid military forces on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, rose to 13 on April 20 with one Ukrainian soldier reported as killed in action and another four as wounded in action." (UNIAN : 21 April 2020) (my emphasis)

As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine.

Now, more than ever, Zelensky must not take his eyes off Ukraine's war with Putin during this corona-virus epidemic. 

(to be continued)

Will Zelensky's "advisory council" bring "peace in our time" to Ukraine?

On 30th September, 1938, the then Prime Minister of Great Britain, Neville Chamberlain (left), addressed the crowd after his return from Germany, where he concluded the Munich Agreement with Adolf Hitler, and said,

"The settlement of the Czechoslovakian problem, which has now been achieved is, in my view, only the prelude to a larger settlement in which all Europe may find peace. This morning I had another talk with the German Chancellor, Herr Hitler, and here is the paper which bears his name upon it as well as mine." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

The Munich Agreement,

"...provided "cession to Germany of the Sudeten German territory" of Czechoslovakia.[1] Most of Europe celebrated the agreement, because it prevented the war threatened by Adolf Hitler by allowing Nazi Germany's annexation of the Sudetenland, a region of western Czechoslovakia inhabited by more than 3 million people, mainly German speakers." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

Youtube

Fast forward to 2020 and we have, the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky,

"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky (left) does not intend to withdraw signatures of his Office Head Andriy Yermak and Ukraine's envoy to the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk Leonid Kuchma from the minutes of meeting laying down the creation of the so-called "advisory council" with the participation of unrecognized representatives of the occupied Donbas." (UNIAN: 6 April 2020) (my emphasis)


The creation of this "advisory council", which includes Putin's proxies who are euphemistically referred to as "unrecognized representatives of the occupied Donbas", bears a striking resemblance to the Munich Agreement signed by Chamberlain and Hitler in 1938.

 Putin:- 

"the Russian and Ukrainian peoples are practically one single people," which is being taken as a major rhetorical step toward occupying or annexing more of Ukraine as Russian territory
....
The comments came just a day after Putin referred to the Russia-backed separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine [Donbas] as "the militia of Novorossiya," which means New Russia. (Vox : 30 August 2014) (my emphasis)
   

Hitler:-

"... Nazi Germany's annexation of the Sudetenland, a region of western Czechoslovakia inhabited by more than 3 million people, mainly German speakers." 


Unlike Chamberlain's Munich Agreement with Hitler, which was applauded by the Dutch and the French, amongst others,

" ... about 60 MPs with the Servant of the People Party called on President Zelensky to halt the process of creation of the advisory council as many believed the move would legitimize Russian puppet militants in the occupied Donbas, putting them on par with the Ukrainian government, as well as neglecting Russia's direct participation in the conflict." (ibid UNIAN 6 April 2020) (my  emphasis)

Zelensky's argument that,

"The Minutes of Meeting is not an international treaty as defined in Article 2 of Law of Ukraine 'On International Treaties of Ukraine', therefore the law does not regulate the President's authorization of signing or decision to withdraw signatures from Minsk TCG's working document of March 11, 2020," (ibid UNIAN)

thus represents a political and legal sleight of hand that, whilst underscoring his election pledge to end the war between Ukraine and Putin in the Donbas, nonetheless also underscores Putin's rhetorical 'Novorossiya' argument for invading and occupying the Donbas.

Putin is using much the same argument as used by Hitler to invade Czechoslovakia.


And against the backdrop of Zelensky giving the "green light" to the setting up of the "advisory council", UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on April 7 mounted 10 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The armed forces of the Russian Federation violated the ceasefire 10 times on April 7," (UNIAN : 8 April 2020) (my emphasis)

The question is :-

"Will Zelensky's "advisory council" bring "peace in our time" to Ukraine?"

Zelensky should remind himself that in 1938 the Munich Agreement failed. 

(to be continued)