Is TV Zelensky about to fall off his political tightrope act?

In my last blog entry (26 June 2020) I wrote that,

"A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.

And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea." (blog entry)

We now learn, as Dylan Malyasov (right) reports, that,

"Deputy Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Vasyl Bodnar (left) said that Ukraine needs to be mentally prepared for the fact that Russia will not stop using its armed forces for political and economic objectives.
...
“A significant number of military experts and analysts share the opinion about the possibility of a military offensive. NATO also understands how real it is to use Russia’s military potential against Ukraine, and its activation is possible in the near future."
...
 Some experts said that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south. This is stated by American and Ukrainian experts, as well as leaders of neighboring countries warn the Ukrainian authorities about such a scenario" (Defence Blog : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin dangerously ramps up his preparedness for a new attack on Ukraine, Laura Sanicola (right) reports that,

"Oil prices slipped on Tuesday as investors worried that rising COVID-19 cases would hurt demand while supply could rise with a potential resurgence of Libyan oil production, which has slowed to a trickle since the start of the year." (Reuters : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"Libya is trying to resume exports, which have been almost entirely blocked since January due to civil war. The state’s oil company hopes talks will end a blockade by eastern-based forces.

“If we do finally see a resumption in Libyan output, this would make the job of OPEC+ a little bit more difficult,” said Dutch bank ING. " (ibid Laura Sanicola)

This uncertainty about the price of oil only serves to increase the determination of Putin to "blitzkrieg-like" strike at Ukraine. 

Unperturbed by the growing dangerous mind-set of Putin to possibly invade the south of Ukraine, Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert report that,

"The European Commission is preparing measures to protect the European Union as it faces threatened U.S. sanctions, which could break international law, on a link to carry gas directly from Russia to Germany, the EU’s foreign policy chief, [Joseph Borrel (right)], said." (Reuters : 29 June 2020) (my emphasis) 

Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert further report that,

"The U.S. sanctions threat has prompted the German parliament’s economic committee to hold a hearing on July 1 and German business lobbies have called for rescue funds for companies affected.
Timm Kehler, head of gas lobby Zukunft Erdgas, in a statement to the committee published before the event, said such a precedent of “extra-territorial sanctions” must be avoided." (ibid Kate Abnett and Vera Eckert) (my emphasis)

German business, it would seem, is hell-bent on running after Putin's roubles, even if it means filling Putin's coffers that are been depleted as the price of oil continues to decline and the corona virus continues its inexorable and devastating march across Russia.     

It would seem that German politicians and businessmen have rather conveniently forgotten the post WW1 "Treaty of Rapallo (1922)" when Germany and Russia agreed to normalise their diplomatic relations and to "co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries". .(Wikipedia), not to mention the Hitler-Stalin pact during WW2.

That Putin has a growing dangerous mindset is best exemplified by the current furore in the US concerning Putin's paying of Taliban supporters to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan.

As reported by Geoff Earle,

"In another brazen attack on the U.S., a Russian military intelligence unit has secretly paid bounties to Taliban-linked fighters to kill U.S. and coalition forces in Afghanistan, according to a bombshell New York Times report.

The report represents a deadly escalation in Moscow's repeated efforts to undermine U.S. policy, and came as the administration was seeking to find ways to extract itself from the decades-long war by making peace with the Taliban." (Daily Mail : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC [1 : 30 June 2020] [2 : 30 June 2020] [3 : 30 June 2020]

Zelensky should pay particular attention to this 'deadly escalation of Putin's efforts to undermine U.S. policy' when viewed against

"[s]ome experts [saying] that Summer 2020 could be a turning point in the situation with the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula and bring Ukraine a new war, now in the south." (ibid Dylan Malyasov)

 Recall an interview by Shaun Walker and Andrew Roth (left) with Zelensky in March of this year, where he stated that,

"Interviewer: What’s the difference between playing a
 president on screen and being one in real life?

Zelensky:   “It’s very similar,” he says, his compact frame engulfed by a green leather armchair in his opulent presidential office ..... [“Previous inhabitants felt very at home in these surroundings, I guess,” he says; they make him feel “horribly uncomfortable”. The most recent renovations were done by president Viktor Yanukovych, whose obscene corruption and cosying up to Russia prompted the 2014 Maidan revolution.]

 “It’s true there are more problems. They are catastrophic. They appear, I’m sorry to say, like pimples on an 18-year-old kid. You don’t know where they will pop up, or when.” 

The 42-year-old speaks in his native Russian, his expressive face switching from boyish amusement to tortured concern in a flash." (The Guardian : 7 March 2020) (my emphasis)

Just over a year ago (April 2019) Zelensky scored a landslide victory (more than 73%) against Petro Poroshenko.

A recent survey conducted by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology reveals that his approval rating has slid to 38%, whilst those dissatisfied with his work has risen to 45%. (UNIAN : 30 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Is Zelensky about to fall off the dangerous political tightrope he now tries to negotiate that he thought would be as easy to romp along as when he was 'play-acting' a president on TV?

(to be continued)

Zelensky is now walking along a deadly political tightrope.

History tells us that Stalin was once supposed to have said that,

"The people who cast the votes don't decide an election, the people who count the votes do." (Brainyquote)

 UNIAN now reports that,

"More than two dozen crew of the Russian Black Sea naval fleet's Project 22160 large patrol ship Vasily Bykov who voted against the constitutional amendments that would reset the count of Vladimir Putin's presidential terms say their commanders threaten to have them dismissed from service if they don't change their vote." (UNIAN : 26 June 2020) (my emphasis)

                           ( USNews : 22 June 2020)

And whilst Putin, in the embrace of the Russian Orthodox Church, silently knows that he will win this vote, Gabriela Baczynska and Francesco Guarascio report that,

"European Union leaders agreed on Friday to extend until the end of January next year their economic sanctions against Russia over its 2014 annexation of Crimea and the turmoil in eastern Ukraine." (Reuters : 19 June 2020) (my emphasis)
 
And as reported by John Walcott, this EU sanctions extension has been followed by :

• Russian President Vladimir Putin’s comments about the legitimacy of Russia’s borders in a documentary broadcast on Russian television have rattled some U.S. allies, fearful that he might be laying the groundwork for a further military incursion into Ukraine.
• Putin’s renewed defense of Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea – .... In the documentary, Putin said, “Crimea has always been ours. Even from the judicial point-of-view.”
• The immediate focus of concern now, officials on both sides of the Atlantic said, is the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where Russian troops and Ukrainian forces backed by NATO are locked in an uneasy ceasefire. (Time : 23 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin is now also intensifying his jamming of  Ukrainian Radio Stations that normally would have been received by listeners in Ukraine's Crimea. (UNIAN : 23 June 2020)

This threatening shot across the Ukrainian military/political bows by Putin could herald a pre-emptive military strike as Ukraine receives Javelin anti-tank missiles from the US.

As reported by UNIAN,

""On June 16, as part of a pilot project under the U.S. Government's 'International Military Sales' program, Ukraine received the first batch of cargo under the contract signed in December 2019, namely missiles for Javelin anti-tank missile systems and additional equipment totaling over US$27 million," the report reads. FGM-148E missiles which are one of the latest versions of Javelin system's anti-tank missiles were delivered for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." (UNIAN : 24 June 2020) (my emphasis)

 

At the same time, as reported by The Canadian Press,

"The Canadian Armed Forces is deploying military trainers back to Ukraine as it looks to restart some of the many missions and exercises temporarily suspended or scaled back because of COVID-19.
...
"These personnel will deploy in June 2020, and observe a 14-day isolation period on arrival in Ukraine. On completion of this isolation period, they will be prepared to resume their mission of supporting the Security Forces of Ukraine." (CTVNews : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

And on the political front, as reported by Roland Oliphant,

"The president of Ukraine has asked that his country be left out of November’s  US presidential election after a Ukrainian MP published tapes apparently intended to embarrass Joe Biden. 

Volodymyr Zelenskiy denied involvement in last month's leak of conversations between Mr Biden and Petro Poroshenko, his predecessor, and told the Telegraph he did not want the scandal to undermine Ukraine’s strategic alliance with the United States.  (The Telegraph: 1 June 2020) (my emphasis)

 Zelensky may wish for Ukraine to be left out of the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections.

However, Ukraine's involvement in the 2020 US presidential elections, like the Corona virus, cannot simply be wished away by Zelensky when Trump, currently fighting for his political life, will go to any lengths to discredit Joe Biden, his opponent in the 2020 US presidential elections, and dragging Biden's name through the Ukrainian mud is at the top of his re-election efforts.

MSNBC : 26 June 2020

 
Zelensky is now walking along a deadly political tightrope.

A Biden success in 4 months time bodes ill not only for Zelensky and those who surround him but, more importantly, also for Putin.

And like Trump, Putin is acting quickly and recklesssly to put into place that which he has always sought during his war with Ukraine viz. a land-bridge between his Russia and Ukraine's Crimea.

(to be continued)

Zelensky should be aware that like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

In 2014 the Maidan Revolution of Dignity led to the ousting of the then president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich , who was then helped by Putin to escape into his arms, and who now still resides in Russia under the protection of Putin.

And in 2014, Putin's anger at the ousting of Yanukovich boiled over, and he invaded and illegally annexed Ukraine's Crimea, and started his war with Ukraine in the Donbas.

Two years later, in 2016, at the Republican National Convention that choose Donald Trump to be their US presidential candidate Paul Manafort, Trump's then campaign chair and chief strategist, sought to overturn then US President Obama's support for the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine's war with Putin in the Donbas, and Ukraine's regaining of Crimea.

Diana Denman (left), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing  sanctions [introduced by President Obama] against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military." (cf. Josh Rogin)

As then reported by Josh Rogin (right) at the 2016 Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

"The Trump campaign worked behind the scenes last week to make sure the new Republican platform won’t call for giving weapons to Ukraine to fight Russian and rebel forces, contradicting the view of almost all Republican foreign policy leaders in Washington." (Washington Post : July 18, 2016) (my emphasis)

This "behind the scenes" effort was orchestrated by none other than Paul Manafort, who is now languishing in a US prison.

Fast forward to today and we have the 'thread of the Revolution of Dignity of Maidan' once again beginning to take centre-stage in the upcoming US presidential election of 2020.

 As now revealed in the upcoming release of the book, "The Room Where It Happened",  by Trump's former National Security Advisor, John Bolton, Trump not only tried to 'shake down Ukraine's President Zelensky for 'dirt' on Joe Biden, his opponent in the upcoming 2020 US presidential elections, but also sought the help of Chinese President Xi Jinping to win his re-election.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"President Donald Trump's former National Security Adviser John Bolton writes in his upcoming memoir that Trump sought Chinese President Xi Jinping's help in winning re-election during a closed-door meeting in June 2019, according to a report in the New York Times on Wednesday.

Trump reportedly asked the Chinese leader during trade negotiations at a summit in Osaka, Japan to buy more agricultural products in order to help him win farm states in the November general election." (Aljazeera : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : 18 June 2020 (Brian Williams)

Brian Williams also reveals that,

"... Bolton also writes about House Democrats efforts to impeach the president for abuse of power for holding up security aid [to Ukraine] while pressuring [Zelensky] Ukraine to publicly announce investigations into the Biden's .." (ibid MSNBC video above)

The revelations in Bolton's book, exposing as it does the 'shakedown' of Zelensky by Trump during that fateful telephone conversation between them in July of last year, is now causing Trump's re-election strategy to have severe headaches.

CNBC : 25 September 2019

It is therefore no coincidence that, having had a copy of John Bolton's book for vetting purposes before its release, without warning his generals NOR the German Government, Trump suddenly announced the pullout of 10000 US troops from Germany.

As reported by the New York Times (Associated Press),

"President Donald Trump said Monday he is ordering a major reduction in U.S. troop strength in Germany, a move widely criticized by members of his own party as a gift to Russia and a threat to U.S. national security." (New York Times : 16 June 2020) (my emphasis)

DW : Youtube 6 June 2020

The response of the Pentagon to Trump's 'gift to Putin' was to,

"The United States plans to give Ukraine $250 million through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative for training and equipment to strengthen the country’s ability defend itself against Russia, the Pentagon said on Thursday.

The funds for fiscal 2020 are being sent to deter “Russian aggression,” the Pentagon said in a statement." (Mike Stone : Reuters : 11 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"The U.S. State Department has cleared a potential sale to Ukraine of 16 Mark VI patrol boats and other gear worth $600 million, it was announced Wednesday.
...
Along with the modern and fast patrol boats, the sale includes various weapons, sensors and communications gear to deter Russia from muscling Ukraine in the contested Kerch Strait and key ports along the Azov Sea." ( Joe Gould  :  Defense News : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

If these developments are not enough to send Putin into an apoplectic rage, then the current fall in the price of oil should.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Oil prices fell around 1% on Thursday as a spike in new coronavirus cases in China and the United States renewed fears that a recovery in fuel demand could stall, even as lockdowns ease." (UNIAN : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

To protect himself against the corona-virus; Putin may have erected a 'disinfection tunnel' through which all his visitors have to pass before meeting with him but he cannot protect himself and his 'siloviki' from falling oil prices.

As reported by The Economic Times,

"Visitors meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at his country residence must first pass through a walk-through device that sprays them with disinfectant, to protect him from the coronavirus, officials said." (The Economic Times : 17 June 2020) (my emphasis)

At the same time as the price of oil is falling, RFE/RL reports that,

"The German government has "noted with regret" a U.S. proposal to expand sanctions over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline between Russia and Germany.
"New sanctions would constitute a serious interference in European energy security and EU sovereignty," a statement by the Foreign Ministry said on June 14." RFE/RL : 14 June 2020) (my emphasis)

The German economy, under the corona-virus lock-down in so many countries that it exports to, is beginning to seriously tremble. (cf also: Svar Nanan-Sen : Express: 7 June 2020)

For Zelensky, US military aid and the falling price of oil should give him some comfort.

But this comfort should not be taken for granted.

Like Trump, Putin is also prone to unpredictability.

Zelensky should be constantly aware of this incontrovertible political fact.

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!!

"Despite pandemics, economic stagnation, and multiple domestic and foreign crises, Russia continues its war against Ukraine and even fabricates new threats.  Since it has become clear that the Minsk process, the process based on agreements there in 2015 is not going anywhere, Russia is raising the ante.  Because it cannot induce or compel Ukraine politically to sign its own death warrant and convert itself into a confederacy where Russian agents from the Donbass would have veto power over Kyiv's government, Moscow has alighted upon a new tactic.  As it has done in Georgia, it is now issuing hundreds of thousands of Russian passports to residents of the Donbass in preparation for the formal incorporation of the territory into the Russian state." (Real Clear Defense : 18 June 2020) (my emphasis)

So wrote Stephen Blank (right) in an article that fully exposes the intention of Putin to dismember Ukraine and incorporate the Donbas (and where next??) into Russia, as was done with Crimea.

Even more significantly, Stephen Blank reveals that,

"Therefore, it is no surprise that Ukrainian sources report that the Crimea situation is developing towards the capture of Ukraine territories that give access to water from the Dnieper River. Russia has increased the military contingent in and around Crimea to about a reported 80,000 troops and concentrated its engineering units in the north of the Crimea."

Putin has not shifted his gaze from conquering a land-bridge between Russia and Ukraine.

Is the invasion of Mariupol next on Putin's war agenda?

Is Zelensky now playing 'political roulette'?

Vitaliy Syzov writes that,

"Zelenskyy’s critics claim to see growing evidence of Kremlin influence throughout government.

They cite the recent attempts to  

• appoint toxic figures with ties to the pro-Russian administration of disgraced ex-president Viktor Yanukovych, 
• and question Zelenskyy’s moderate stance on the traditionally thorny issues of language policy and national memory.  
• Meanwhile, his one-sided efforts to reinvigorate the stalled peace process through repeated concessions to the Kremlin continue to generate deep suspicion." (Atlantic Council : 4 June 2020) (my emphasis

Furthermore, according to Vitaliy Syzov,
"... the former comedian has attempted to emphasize less politically explosive themes such as economic growth, the fight against corruption, and personal freedoms in business and private life. At the same time, he has made the intensification of peace negotiations the number one priority of his presidency." (ibid Vitaliy Syzov) (my emphasis)

That Zelensky's may be failing in his peace negotiations with Putin is best expressed in the words of  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, (left) who recently denied that,

"... Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has underestimated the challenge of achieving peace with Russia.

Talking to DW, Kuleba said Zelenskiy "fully realizes how difficult it is to make a deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin and make him withdraw from Ukraine and de-occupy Donbass." (DW : 2 June 2020) (my emphasis)

DW 2 June 2020

In his interview on DW (above), Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba stated that,

"We understand that the United States is currently in a difficult situation and we support American democracy. We hope that all these issues will be left behind with American standards of Human Rights and democratic government. And I'm absolutely confident that the partnership between the United States and Ukraine can not be shattered."

Whilst true that the US-Ukraine partnership cannot be shattered, nonetheless it is also true that US President Trump has a strange affection for (fear of?) Putin that also cannot be denied.

One merely has to recollect the political fallout of that fateful telephone conversation between Trump and Zelensky in July of last year, Trump's accolytes continuing to try and find Ukrainian 'dirt' on Biden and his son, and Trump vowing that the Biden-Ukraine connection will take  centre stage in his current re-election attempt.

Trump-Zelensky Call (Youtube)

It is therefore interesting to note Ilya Zhegulev (left) reporting that,

"An audit of thousands of old case files by Ukrainian prosecutors found no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of Hunter Biden, the former prosecutor general [Ruslan Ryaboshapka (right)] who had launched the audit, told Reuters.

“I specifically asked prosecutors to check especially carefully those facts about Biden’s alleged involvement. They answered that there was nothing of the kind,” he added." (Reuters : 4 June 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet, as reported by Ukraine Today on 20 May 2020,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called for an investigation Wednesday of leaked recordings purportedly depicting then-Vice President Joe Biden telling Zelensky’s predecessor Petro Poroshenko that his country would receive U.S. aid once top prosecutor Viktor Shokin was replaced.
...


Andriy Derkach (left), a member of Ukraine’s parliament, released the recordings a day earlier.
...
 Derkach was “previously aligned with a pro-Russian faction and has past links to Russian intelligence.” Derkach’s father reportedly worked for the KGB — and was allegedly terminated amid a scandal “over a Ukrainian journalist who was kidnapped and murdered.”

Poroshenko reportedly blamed Russia for the leak, calling the audio “bogus” and seeking an investigation of the leak itself." (Ukraine Today : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

As yet we do not know if Zelensky has ordered an investigation into the leak itself.

What we do know is that there has been a "flurry" of calls between Trump and Putin during this Corona-Virus pandemic.

As reported by Julian Borger (left),

"Donald Trump has offered to invite Vladimir Putin to an expanded G7 meeting in September, but the invitation has already been adamantly opposed by the UK and Canada.
...
Trump raised the possibility of inviting Russia on Saturday, after the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, had made clear she would not attend the Camp David summit." (The Guardian : 1 June 2020) (my emphasis) 

This invitation extended by Trump towards Putin should be viewed against the backdrop of Trump's falling popularity among the American electorate.  

 MSNBC : 4 June 2020

Also bear in mind that the upcoming US presidential election is only 5 months away, and Trump is now pulling out all the stops as his administration is beset with public demonstrations across the country.

Indeed, one may ask whether Trump is taking a leaf out of the book of Putin in drastically quelling the right of the public to protest.

 MSNBC 4  June 2020

Zelensky should bear in mind that the upcoming US presidential election is in 5 months time.

At this stage, Zelensky's call on 20 May to investigate a "leaked tape" that purportedly implicates Trump's presidential rival, Joe Biden, and that Zelensky said at a news conference in Ukraine that the contents of the leaked conversations “might be perceived, qualified as high treason” (ibid Ukraine Today), can only be viewed as playing Political Roulette, a political act that is potentially very dangerous to himself.

Is Zelensky now playing 'political roulette'?

(to be continued)

Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

UNICEF, the UN Children's Agency, have reported (20 May 2020) that,

"At a time when children and families in eastern Ukraine are living under COVID-19 related movement restrictions, an increase in shelling has resulted in numerous child casualties and damaged schools in the region, making life even more unbearable for the approximately 430,000 children caught up in the six-year long conflict, UNICEF said today.

Six children were injured at home after their villages came under shelling during the first week of May alone. One incident severely injured three young girls, two of them sisters, aged 7 and 10 years old and the other a friend, also aged 7." (UNICEF : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This report of UNICEF is backed up by a summary report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine that included,

• "Compared with the previous reporting period, the Mission recorded more ceasefire violations in both Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

•  It saw mines, including some for the first time, near Maiorsk and Petrivske and in Zaitseve, Holmivskyi, and Staromykhailivka.   

• The SMM’s freedom of movement continued to be restricted.*" (OSCE Report : 23 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Further confirming the uptick of attacks by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, a video released by the Ukrainian military shows what it claims is a team of Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB) snipers operating in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : 20 May 2020)

And against this backdrop of Putin's escalation of his war with Ukraine in  the Donbas, Oliver Carroll reports that,

"On Wednesday, in his annual news conference (20 May 2020)

• Gone was the easy style of the previous year’s meeting –... During the 3 hour affair, the president’s demeanour was harder, more defensive, and plenty more irritable.
• Mr Zelensky was angry with the journalists. He snapped when they asked about a colleague who was denied accreditation to the event: “He penetrated the presidential motorcade and you have to question his upbringing,” the president said. 
• An even stranger exchange followed when he was asked why so many of his inexperienced friends were being rewarded with high office. “These are people I trust,” Mr Zelensky replied, before turning to the journalist in question: “And what about you? I’m making you an offer to work with me. Choose your position and answer for your actions.” (The Independent : 21 May 2020) (my emphasis)

At this press conference Zelensky also unveiled,

" ... the existence of Plan B and Plan C on Donbas, but the Minsk agreements remain a priority. "I'm giving myself a few more months to resolve this, so that we find this diplomatic way out of the situation under the Minsk agreements," he said at a press conference on the first year of his presidency ...
...
As for 'Minsk' and this track, we will fight for it to the end, because sanctions against the Russian Federation are connected with the Minsk agreements. And you know everyone wants to lift them – not only Russia, but also many European countries. I know their economies are also suffering over these sanctions. But, as I said, we will fight for them for a year," he said." (UNIAN : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

But what does, "... we will fight for them (sanctions against Putin's Russia) for a year ..." really mean??

Adding even more confusion, does "the existence of Plan B and Plan C" include the wholesale scrapping of the Minsk2 agreements??

Maybe .... just maybe ...the fact that Oleksiy Reznikov (right), Ukraine's current Vice Prime Minister, has stated that,

"The Ukrainian side is  

• looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020), and

• that those Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to them, thus suddenly conferring upon them the status of 'Russian representatives',  

gives us a clue as to what may be contained in Plan B or Plan C.

Zelensky may have postponed the Ukraine-Russia peace summit until after the corona virus pandemic has subsided.  (The Brussels Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, has not 'postponed' his ramping up of his war with Ukraine.

Zelensky now stands at the political crossroads.

As Duncan Allan's (left) summary of  his "The Minsk Conundrum" so explicitly points out,

• The Minsk agreements of September 2014 and February 2015, which sought to end Russia’s war in eastern Ukraine, rest on two irreconcilable interpretations of Ukraine’s sovereignty – what could be called the ‘Minsk conundrum’: is Ukraine sovereign, as Ukrainians insist, or should its sovereignty be limited, as Russia demands?

• Russia sees the Minsk agreements as tools with which to break Ukraine’s sovereignty. Its interpretation reverses key elements in the sequence of actions: elections in occupied Donbas would take place before Ukraine had reclaimed control of the border; this would be followed by comprehensive autonomy for Russia’s proxy regimes, crippling the central authorities in Kyiv. Ukraine would be unable to govern itself effectively or orient itself towards the West. (Chatham House : 22 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Which political road will Zelensky choose?

(to be continued)

Will not Oleksiy Reznikov's 'legal-sleigh-of-hand' tighten Putin's grip over the Donbas?

In an article entitled, "Failure of oil price war may cost Putin dear", David Gardner (left) writes that,

"Igor Sechin, chief of Rosneft, the state oil company, and long one of Russia’s most powerful men, wrote to Mr Putin last year, before Moscow changed tack on Opec+, complaining that its output restraints had “created a preferential advantage for the US . . . which has become a strategic threat to Russia’s oil industry development”.

If Mr Putin did indeed buy the Sechin thesis, that was surely a mistake. ... But Opec+ is not delivering." Financial Times : 30 April 2020) (my emphasis)

The Intelligence Unit of  'The Economist' now forecast that,

"Tensions with the West are high and we expect EU and US sanctions to remain in place in 2020-24. 
...
Russia has become more resilient to external shocks since 2014, but the dual shock of collapsed global oil prices and deteriorating domestic demand amid the coronavirus outbreak will result in an economic contraction of 5.2% in 2020." (The Economist Intelligence Unit : 19 May 2020) (my emphasis)


More disconcerting for Putin, The Moscow Times have just reported that,

"Russian GDP Falls 28% in April

The Russian economy contracted by more than a quarter in April, calculations based on official government statistics have shown. Using the first batch of official data on the damage from the coronavirus and Russia’s nationwide shutdown of the economy, Russia’s GDP in April was 28% smaller in nominal terms than in the same period last year, economists said. " (The Moscow Times : 20 May 2020) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Putin is now trying to use the corona-virus pandemic to have EU and US sanctions against him and his 'siloviki' lifted.

Having previously failed in his argument that, "sanctions hinder the fight against the corona, trying to win hearts of certain EU member states" (UNIAN:19 May 2020), Putin is now desperately, "planning to act through the platform of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), "the structure Moscow pretty much fully controls." (ibid UNIAN)

As reported by UNIAN,

"The statement [of the CIS prime ministers’ meeting on May 29] will urge all countries to abandon trade wars, unilateral sanctions introduced bypassing the UNSC, and other measures of economic pressure or coercion on the part of certain state actors against others. Signatories will reaffirm their intention to seek free, fair, non-discriminatory, transparent, predictable and stable conditions for trade and investment," the leaked draft shows." (UNIAN: 19 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Putin's panic as his Russian economy falls around his knees is, according to Sarah Rainsford, causing him to,

" ... run out of patience with coronavirus.

On Monday he sent millions of workers back to factories and building sites across Russia, declaring six weeks of full lockdown over.

 BBC: 15 May

Regional leaders have been left to manage exactly how and when they lift the remaining restrictions, with the infection rate still stubbornly high - especially in Moscow." (BBC News : 15 May 2020) (my emphasis)

BBC: 15 May

And against this backdrop of a failing Health System and a collapsing economy in Russia, Putin continues to lash out against Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 18 mounted 11 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed formations violated the ceasefire 11 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 19, 2020." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And yet ... and yet ...

"LPR", "DPR" envoys in Minsk talks have status of persons "invited" by Russia, Ukrainian official stresses" .. so screams the UNIAN headline.

"The Ukrainian side is looking for a way to negotiate with the participation of real representatives of Donbas, from among internally displaced persons, to have this type of consultations supported by the OSCE and the Normandy Four." (UNIAN : 18 May 2020) (my emphasis)

The fact that Ukraine has always insisted that, ".. any direct negotiations with Russian-controlled militants are off the table", and that these Putin-controlled 'militants' now sport Russian passports that Putin has ILLEGALLY given to thousands of Donbas Ukrainians, do these illegal passports of Putin's 'militants' now suddenly confer upon them the status of 'Russian representatives'???

So, it would seem, according to

 (i)  Ukraine's Vice Prime Minister,
(ii)  Minister for Reintegration of Temporarily Occupied Territories,
(iii) First Deputy Representative of Ukraine to the Trilateral Contact Group for the Donbas settlement,  

Oleksiy Reznikov (left).

This 'legal sleigh-of-hand' in bringing Putin's Donbas militant proxies to the consulting process,  ostensibly to 'satisfy' all the conditions of the Minsk2 protocols, smacks of nothing more nor less than to hold aloft a Donbas Peace Plan, similar to the one held aloft by Neville Chamberlain in 1939, and signed by Adolf Hitler.

Yet it was precisely the actions of the Putin-controlled representatives of certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the predecessors of the current "holders of Russian passports" representatives that Oleksiy Reznikov now views as "legal Russian representatives", that allowed Putin to spark of his war with Ukraine in the Donbas in the first place.

History, it would seem, is repeating itself.

Putin will simply NOT allow his grip over areas of the Donbas and Ukraine's Crimea to be released.

The critical question is,

"Will not Oleksiy Reznikov's 'legal-sleigh-of-hand' tighten Putin's grip over the Donbas?"

(to be continued)

Will Putin now invade Ukraine at Mariupol?

UNIAN reports that,

"Russia's hybrid military forces on May 9 mounted 17 attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "The Russian Federation's armed groups violated the ceasefire 17 times in the past day," the press center of Ukraine's Joint Forces Operation said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 10, 2020." (UNIAN : 10 May 2020) (my emphasis)

These attacks by Putin's hybrid military forces in the Donbas follow those on the 8 May, in which four Ukrainian soldiers were wounded. (UNIAN : 9 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This continuous violation of the ceasefire by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas comes against the backdrop of a record rise of corona-virus infections in Putin's Russia.

As reported by BBC News,

"In the last 24 hours [Russia] reported a record daily rise of 11,656 cases, bringing the official total to 221,344." (BBC News : 11 May 2020) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding that only Spain and the US now have more reported infections Putin, nonetheless, has declared that,

"... from Tuesday (12 May) the nationwide coronavirus lockdown will be eased and businesses will go back to work. " (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

BBC News 11 May

As I wrote in my blog entry of 21 April 2020,

"... As the economic and social fallout from the corona-virus unravels Putin's Russian and international political agenda, Putin will lash out against Ukraine."

as the UNIAN reports above (9 and 10 May) confirms.

As also reported by Jessica Resnick-Ault (left),

"Oil dropped 4% to below $30 a barrel on Wednesday as U.S. crude stockpiles ticked up and diesel inventories swelled, offsetting OPEC-led cuts in production and hopes for a recovery in demand as some countries ease coronavirus lockdowns." (Reuters : 6 May 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Putin eases his lock-down of the Russian economy, a strategic adviser to the United States, political analyst Molly McKew (right), argues that,

"The Russian policy of granting citizenship to the population of a neighboring state poses a threat to international security; therefore, the EU and NATO need to develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such hybrid Russian interventions.
..
... in the light of recent changes proposed by the President of the Russian Federation to the law on granting citizenship and develop a comprehensive strategy to counter such Russian policy." (Guildhall : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis) (translated using Google Translate)

As the Chief of Ukraine's Permanent Mission to the United Nations, Ambassador Serhiy Kyslytsya (left) reported to the UN Security Council in February of this year,

"Russia has issued over 200,000 passports to Ukrainians living in the occupied parts of Donbas.
...
Russia also pursues illegal passportization in the temporarily occupied territories of Donbas, which has now reached an industrial level – more than 200,000 persons were issued Russian passports there," the envoy told a UN Security Council (UNSC) meeting in New York City on February 18." (UNIAN : 7 May 2020) (my emphasis)

This illegal passportization of Putin now carries a greater danger for Ukraine in light of the rising corona-virus infections in Russia.

The corona-virus epidemic in Putin's Russia is throwing into a tailspin Putin's plans to increase the declining population of Russia. (cf: Lilya Palveleva and Robert Coalson : RFERL : 12 Jan 2020 and Michael Kofman : Texas National Security Review : 4 Feb 2020)

Putin now sees the incorporation of  yet more of Ukraine into his "Novorossiya" pipe-dream as a matter of even greater urgency; as a means to increase the population of Russia.

Of this Zelensky should be aware.
 

Let us recall that in my blog entry (27/12/2017) I stated that,

"Putin's military build-up of tanks in the Donbas is a prelude to attack Mariupol, specifically to gain that land-bridge with Ukrainian Crimea that he so desperately needs to further consolidate his hold over Ukrainian Crimea."

Could the sweeping corona-virus epidemic in Russia be the Black Swan event that tips Putin into invading Ukraine at Mariupol?

(to be continued)