Putin's desperate military build-up in eastern Ukraine 20 Jan 2015

The speed with which Putin is accelerating his invasion of Ukraine via the Donbas region has caught many of his supporters in the EU by surprise. This is most evident by the fact that, as Adrian Croft and Robin Emmott  reported yesterday,

"European Union foreign ministers said on Monday there were no grounds to lift economic sanctions against Russia despite conciliatory proposals from the EU's foreign policy chief as violence intensified in eastern Ukraine." (blog entry)

And this morning (20 Jan 2015) we learn from Victoria Butenko that,

 
"Russian military forces and equipment have entered Ukraine, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk says, according to a report from Ukraine's state-run media on Monday.

"He continued: "Tanks, GRAD multiple rocket systems, BUK and SMERCH systems, radio electronic intelligence systems are not sold at local Donetsk street markets. Only the Russian army and Defense Ministry have them." (CNN : 20 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

 This new wave of  Russian soldiers entering eastern Ukraine are supplementing the,

" ... 8,500 Russian regular troops [that Ukraine claims] are [already] helping the rebels .." (BBC News : 19 January 2015)

Russia now practically has the equivalent of an army division fighting in eastern Ukraine, commanded at least by a Russian a major general.

"Divisions perform major tactical operations for the corps and can conduct sustained battles and engagements. One division is made up of at least three maneuver brigades with between 10,000 and 20,000 soldiers, depending on the national army involved." (Michael Moran: CFR) (my emphasis)

Given that Putin has now placed himself firmly in the 'military' camp, with the Russian economy falling around his ears, can he handle both of these crises simultaneously ? 

Khodorkovsky is of the opinion that Putin cannot handle both of these crises simultaneously.

"Putin and his [kleptocratic] Kremlin clan cannot handle more than one crisis at a time ... Right now there are two [major] crises ... Ukraine and the Russian economy ..."

And right now conflicts are beginning to emerge between those concerned about the Russian economy, and those whose minds are, like Putin's, fixated on the war in eastern Ukraine.

German Gref

As German Gref, Sberbank's chairman and president, recently stated,

"But to be honest, we understand very little about what the government [read 'Putin'] will do [about the economy]."(Elena Holodny : Business Insider UK : Jan. 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

Thus, whilst Putin is pouring yet more Russian soldiers and military equipment across the border into eastern Ukraine, as reported by Agence France Press (AFP) 16 hours ago (current GMT: 11.10),

"Russia's battered economy will shrink by a far worse-than-expected 4.8 percent this year, as plunging oil prices add to fallout from the Ukraine crisis, the EBRD development bank forecast Monday." (Yahoo News : 20 Jan 2015)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"MOSCOW (AFP) – Faced with a crippling recession, Russian authorities are coming in for growing criticism from economic insiders concerned over a lack of clear policies to deal with the crisis." (Borneo Bulletin : Tuesday, 20 January 2015)

This vindicates Khodorkovsky's argument about Putin and his Kremlin cohorts not being able to handle more than one crisis at a time.

Where is the Obama Administration in all of this? Senator Chris Murphy (Dem) explains very clearly in a recent  CNN (20 Jan 2015) interview that,

• the US is not going to fight a proxy war against Russia inside eastern Ukraine
• the Ukrainian army is at a disadvantage against the Russian army
• the US needs to start sending more significant military assistance to Ukraine
• economic sanctions are not in the short run convincing Russia to pull back
• this [war] is not ending anytime soon

President Obama

Whilst President Obama will not immediately send 'significant military assistance' to Ukraine we can, however, expect him to fulfill his obligations of a law that he signed on Tuesday, December 16, 2014, and that provides for financial support for military aid for Ukraine. The bill directly mandates the President of the United States to implement this financial support for military aid for Ukraine within 60 days from the signing of the bill. Expect, therefore, a detailed executive decree to be announced to this effect around the 16 Feb 2015.

No doubt Putin himself is well aware that the clock is ticking down towards Poroshenko receiving sophisticated military equipment from the US.

He has a race against time before US military aid starts landing on Ukrainian soil.

This is why he is now desperately sending,

"Tanks, GRAD multiple rocket systems, BUK and SMERCH systems, radio electronic intelligence systems " across the border into eastern Ukraine. (ibid Victoria Butenko)

This morning  Kyiv Post editor Maxim Tucker wrote that,

Maxim Tucker

"Last week the European parliament passed a resolution stating that "there are now no objections or legal restrictions to prevent Member States from providing defensive arms to Ukraine" and that “the EU should explore ways to support the Ukrainian government in enhancing its defence capabilities and the protection of Ukraine’s external borders.” (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"Putin’s response was to raise the stakes yet again, gambling Europeans would rather get dragged into a proxy war than swallow the bitter pill of an economic downturn should fresh sanctions cause Russia to collapse entirely" (Kyiv Post : Jan. 20, 2015, 1:35 a.m.) (my emphasis)

Putin is not raising the stakes. Putin's current actions can be best described as that of a person who is very fast running out of options. He has painted himself into a corner, and his only response is to 'lash out'. He knows that the clock is ticking down towards either his capitulation or a Europe-wide war that is simply too ghastly to contemplate. That is why he is now very very dangerous.

Putin's vanishing room for manouvre Jan 19 2015

Vladimir Frolov, president of LEFF  Group (Moscow), a government relations and PR company, writing in The Moscow Times yesterday (Jan. 18 2015 18:35) has finally revealed that,

" Moscow is not exactly rushing to implement Article 4 of the Minsk Protocol that requires it to withdraw its forces from Ukraine and return the border with Russia to Ukrainian control."

Furthermore,

"He [Putin] wants to leverage Russia's military support for the separatists to impose on Kiev a Bosnia-style constitutional arrangement that would grant the "republics," a special status within Ukraine with veto power over its security policy.

Hence, he doubles down on military aid to the separatists, to push further against the line of control. Continued fighting gives Putin leverage with Europe that he hopes to corral into forcing Kiev to accept Russia's demands for a "constitutional reform." Any settlement ends this leverage." (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the 'fragrant' Mogherini, the European Union's foreign policy chief and Putin admirer, reported 2 hours ago (current time: BST: 10.00 am) that,

"... [a]ny alleviation of EU sanctions against Russia will only happen if there are improvements on the ground in Ukraine and the return of violence there is not good news, the European Union's foreign policy chief said on Monday.

Federica Mogherini told reporters in Brussels that Monday's meeting of EU foreign ministers would not take any decision on sanctions." (Reuters : Jan. 19 2015: )

As I stated in yesterday's blog,

"However, that  'Realpolitic Circle' in the EU that were consistently calling for the sanctions against Russia to be removed are themselves currently caught up in a dilemma now that Putin has scuppered the Astana meeting,  turned off the Russian gas taps to eastern Europe,  and is massing his army on the Ukrainian border for a full scale invasion of Ukraine."

         Mogherini                 Hollande           Steinmeister              Renzi

The 'fragrant' Mogherini's statement this morning that sanctions against Putin's Russia will only be alleviated if Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine 'lay down their arms', only seems to confirm the fact that she, herself, is caught up in a dilemma over what to do about Putin's ramping up of his war against Ukraine.

The tricky position of Putin's supporters in the EU is further compounded by the facts that,

Natalia Zinets

• "Ukrainian troops recaptured almost all the territory of Donetsk airport in eastern Ukraine they had lost to separatists in recent weeks.." (Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch : Reuters : Jan. 18, 2015, 3:20 PM)
• Vladimir Frolov says, " Continued fighting gives Putin leverage with Europe that he hopes to corral into forcing Kiev to accept Russia's demands for a "constitutional reform.", and
• Poroshenko and Merkel have recently stated that, "The key pre-conditions for further peace talks are the closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the release of all hostages .." (Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina : Bloomberg : 2015-01-18 : T10:01:21)

Putin will simply NOT back down, irrespective of the costs imposed upon both the Russian and Ukrainian peoples by his actions.

Highly indicative of the fact that he simply will not back down is his proposal, contained in a letter to Poroshenko, that was aired on the Russian television channel NTV, and that proposed,

"... urgent measures for the cessation of mutual shelling, and also the rapid withdrawal by the sides in the conflict of means of destruction with a calibre higher than 100 mm (4")". (ibid Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch) (my emphasis)

In other words, Putin is simply saying that this size gun is okay because it is a 100 mm (4") caliber gun

but this one is NOT because it exceeds 100mm (4"). It is a 5-Inch/54-caliber (Mk 45) lightweight gun

 In other words, Putin does not want to de-escalate the fighting between the Ukrainian and Russian armies but merely wants 'smaller' guns to be used. There really is something rather obscene in this proposal of Putin.

Merkel and Poroshenko are thus quite right in their pre-conditions for further peace talks viz. "the closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the release of all hostages .." In their case, heavy weaponry includes Putin's 100mm guns.

Quite rightly, Poroshenko is treating this obscene proposal of Putin with the 'diplomatic' contempt that it deserves.

"A Poroshenko spokesman said the Ukrainian president would not comment on the letter this evening." (ibid Natalia Zinets and Lina Kushch) (my emphasis)

News just in: ( Jan 19 2015 : 12.03 BST)

Adrian Croft and Robin Emmott  have just reported that,

"European Union foreign ministers said on Monday there were no grounds to lift economic sanctions against Russia despite conciliatory proposals from the EU's foreign policy chief as violence intensified in eastern Ukraine.

Linas Linkevicius

"I don't think that we now should think how to re-engage. Russia should think how to re-engage," Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius told reporters as he arrived for a meeting where Mogherini's paper was to be discussed.

Mogherini's suggestion has gone down badly with some of the EU's more hawkish states, such as Lithuania, which suggested it would send the wrong message to Russian President Vladimir Putin that the EU's resolve was cracking." (Reuters : Jan 19 2015)

It would seem that the wings of the 'fragrant' Mogherini, Putin's admirer, have been clipped this morning.  This is also sending a very strong signal to Putin's EU supporters that they are no longer going to be allowed to occupy centre stage in determining how the EU sanctions against Russia are to be dealt with. This is particularly also a blow for Steinheimer, and indicates just how wide and un-bridgeable the gulf between himself and Merkel has become.

Even more critical, Putin's assumption that he could rely on his supporters in the EU to get those sanctions against Russia lifted has now completely evaporated.

DEMONSTRATION FOR PEACE THROUGHOUT UKRAINE 18 Jan 2015

If, yesterday, Putin was cornered, today's decision at the EU not to lift the sanctions against Russia has left him with practically no room for manouvre. If he was dangerous yesterday, today he is EXTREMELY dangerous. 

(to be continued)

Cornered Putin lashing out ...18 Jan 2015

In yesterday's blog entry I concluded by stating that,

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," Medvedev said, quoting former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who made the remark in his first inauguration speech at the time of the Great Depression in 1933." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

A rather interesting remark that seems to hint at the fact that Medvedev may be envisaging a Great Russian Depression in the coming year.
Could it be this dire economic outlook for Russia that is forcing Putin into the militaristic camp?

And this morning it is reported that,

"Ukraine’s military repelled a wave of rebel assaults on Donetsk Airport yesterday, rushing in new troops and ammunition to the battle zone as the government prepares for a visit by neighboring Poland’s prime minister." (Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina : Bloomberg : 2015-01-18 : T10:01:21)

        

         DONETSK AIRPORT

Furthermore that,

Andriy Lysenko

"Russia is massing troops and armaments at the border with Ukraine and is testing new weapons in the conflict area, [Andriy] Lysenko said. Government soldiers were struggling to evacuate the wounded from the airport as a “fierce fight” resumed yesterday afternoon, the Security and Defense Council said on its website. " (ibid  Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina) (my emphasis)

Paul gregory rather accurately describes the current mind-set of Putin.

"According to the “cornered rat” theory, Vladimir Putin is more dangerous with his back to the wall. This theory says he is far from finished, despite sanctions, a collapsing economy, and international isolation.  We know for a fact that Putin does not back down when faced with adversity. He doubled down on repression against the mass demonstrations of December 2011. He expanded his hybrid war into east Ukraine despite world outrage over Crimean annexation." (The Blaze : Jan. 14, 2015 2:45pm) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"The “cornered rat” model has even been used in some [EU] Realpolitik circles (the 'fragrant' Mogherini, Hollande, Steinheimer, Renzi, to name but a few) to argue, that we should lighten up on Putin. We should make life easier for the rat in the corner before it bites. That is dead wrong: The correct approach is to take away the rat’s teeth." (ibid Paul Gregory)

       Mogherini                Hollande                 Steinheimer              Renzi

 However, that  'Realpolitic Circle' in the EU that were consistently calling for the sanctions against Russia to be removed are themselves currently caught up in a dilemma now that Putin has 

scuppered the Astana meeting,  turned off the Russian gas taps to eastern Europe,  and is massing his army on the Ukrainian border for a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

Their dilemma is compounded by the fact that Merkel and Poroshenko have recently concluded after a telephone conversation between them that,

"A gathering of the contact group should be followed by a meeting of French, German, Ukrainian and Russian foreign ministers, Poroshenko said in a statement on his website after a phone talk with Merkel.

"The key pre-conditions for further peace talks are the closure of the Ukrainian-Russian border, the withdrawal of heavy weaponry and the release of all hostages, according to the statement." (ibid  Aliaksandr Kudrytski and Kateryna Choursina) (my emphasis)

These events in Europe seemed to have thrust Mikhail Khodorkovsky further into the limelight.

In Vilnius yesterday he stated that,

"Back when I was in jail, I was writing that ... around 2014-15 will be the beginning of the inner crisis of the regime, when it will start making serious mistakes," said Khodorkovsky at a conference in Lithuania." (Reuters : Sat Jan 17, 2015  : 2:56am) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, in an very recent interview on CNN he said that he,

"wanted regime change in Russia .... I think that my country does not deserve a new era of authoritarianism ..."

Now that the cornered Putin is lashing out even more fiercely, is this a symptom of an escalating crisis within the 'kleptocratic inner cricle' of Putin that Khodorkovsky predicted whilst he was in prison?  If so, will Putin now "double down" on his repression of the Russian people as the economic crisis in Russia causes a further and dramatic decrease in their living standards?

Or will he now invade Ukraine to dramatically increase the nationalist fervour that he inspired amongst Russians when he invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea. 

Putin has now put Russia on a war footing, primarily to deflect the anxieties of the Russian people away from the collapsing of their economy.  He has steadily been ramping up expenditure on his war machine, to the extent that it now consumes 30% of the Russian budget. 

As Alexei Kudrin warned,

Alexei Kudrin

"Russia plans to spend more than 20 trillion rubles by 2020 on modernizing its armed forces, but the dilemma is not new. Long before the collapse in oil prices, Siluanov’s predecessor, Alexei Kudrin, warned that plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars on rearming were unaffordable." (Jason Bush : Reuters : Japan Times : 18 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

The fact that Putin is now demanding that the military budget be 'left intact'  is yet another indication that he will not back down, especially now that he is 'cornered'. Now, more than ever, Putin is a very dangerous man.

(to be continued)

Putin firmly in the militaristic camp

Tomas Hirst

Tomas Hirst reported on 14 Jan 2015 that,

"Russia's economy minister Alexei Ulyukayev borrowed a quote from communist revolutionary Vladimir Lenin in his speech to the Gaidar Forum in Moscow today.

Alexei Ulyukayev

Ulyukayev cited the founder of the Soviet Union as he told guests at the economic summit that the era of peace is over to be "replaced by an era of relatively much more impulsive, spasmodic, disastrous, conflict", (Business Insider) (my emphasis)

In an interview with Bloomberg, (14 Jan 2015) Alexei Ulyukayev re-iterated the belief of Putin that Russia has enough economic resources to withstand both the fall in the price of oil, as well as the falling price of the rouble.

Unfortunately, Sberbank's chairman and president German Gref stated at the recent Gaidar Forum on Jan 14, that was also attended by Alexei Ulyukaye, that,

German Gref

"it was "obvious that the banking crisis will be enormous," citing the current average oil prices.

Elena Holodny

Sberbank's chairman isn't the first banker to seem worried about the industry. In mid-December, one banker declared it was "the end of the banking system" after the central bank raised rates to 17% in an effort to limit the ruble's devaluation and inflation risks." (Elena Holodny : Business Insider UK : Jan. 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

German Gref rather contradicts the 'upbeat' optimism of  Alexei Ulyukayev.

Furthermore, and perhaps even more worrying, is the fact that Gref said at the forum,

"But to be honest, we understand very little about what the government [read 'Putin'] will do." (ibid Elena Holodny) (my emphasis)

We can infer from this statement of Gref that the state of the Russian economy is of secondary importance for Putin. Of primary importance to Putin is the rapid military build-up of Russian forces and armaments in eastern Ukraine, and a concerted military push to confront the Ukrainian army.

As reported by Oliver Caroll,

" Heavy fighting between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed rebels has resumed with renewed savagery." (The Independent : Saturday 17 January 2015), especially around Donetsk airport.

  

 

 

Furthermore that,

"The long-term prospects of the conflict - fuelled by Russia but which is increasingly on taking on internal, civil dimensions - were underlined on Thursday by the order of President Poroshenko to institute three new waves of mobilisation to crush the rebels." (ibid Oliver Caroll) (my emphasis)

We can, at this stage, discern two distinct camps around Putin that are emerging. These are the militarists and the economists.

At this point in time it would seem as though Putin is firmly standing in the camp of the militarists, so much so that Lieutenant-General Ben Hodges, commander of U.S. Army forces in Europe, said that,

        Ben Hodges

"Russia is working to develop within a few years the capability to threaten several neighbors at once on the scale of its present operation in Ukraine ...  [He also] told Reuters [that] an attack on another neighbor does not seem like an immediate threat because Moscow appears to have its hands full in Ukraine for now." (Adrian Croft : Reuters : 17 Jan 2014) (my emphasis)

Like German Gref, Medvedev is also concerned about the state of the Russian economy. Medvedev told his deputies there should be regular meetings to discuss the looming economic crisis.

"The economic situation is quite problematic to say the least," he said. "Therefore, all of the members of the government must hold key meetings in the areas that they coordinate, as we have already agreed," Medvedev said. (Daniel J. Graeber : UPI : Jan. 12, 2015)

Even at the recent Gaidar Forum in Moscow he vowed that,

" ...... the government would not return to a Soviet-style mobilization economy and that it would keep the ruble a convertible currency. This will allow Russia to adapt to the new conditions and modernize its economy, something that it needs to do regardless of oil prices." ( Ivan Nechepurenko : Moscow Times : Jan. 14 2015)

Dmitry Medvedev delivers a speech as he attends the Gaidar Forum 2015 

Furthermore that,

"The only thing we have to fear is fear itself," Medvedev said, quoting former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt, who made the remark in his first inauguration speech at the time of the Great Depression in 1933." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

A rather interesting remark that seems to hint at the fact that Medvedev may be envisaging a Great Russian Depression in the coming year.

Could it be this dire economic outlook for Russia that is forcing Putin into the militaristic camp?

(to be continued) 

Putin has lit a dangerous fuse that cannot now be extinguished ....

I  ended yesterday's blog entry by saying that,

"Is  Putin about to push the world over the precipice into full-scale war in Europe?"

And overnight this prediction is coming perilously close to being fulfilled by Putin.

As reported this morning in the Mail Online by Robert Lea,

Vladimir Putin and Alexei Miller yesterday

"Overnight the Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ordered the state energy giant Gazprom to cut supplies to and through Ukraine by around three-fifths amid accusations its neighbour has been siphoning off and stealing Russian gas."

"Russia cut gas exports to Europe by 60 per cent today, plunging the continent into an energy crisis 'within hours' as a dispute with Ukraine escalated.
This morning, gas companies in Ukraine said that Russia had completely cut off their supply. Six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas shipped via Ukraine today, in a sharp escalation of a struggle over energy that threatens Europe as winter sets in.
Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine." (15th Jan 2015)

And while Putin turns off the gas-taps, London South East reports that,

"The Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said [yesterday] that some of its observers have been pulled out of eastern Ukraine, where violence has surged this week despite a ceasefire.
"Some member states have temporarily withdrawn their monitors from the Luhansk and Donetsk regions," OSCE spokesman Michael Bociurkiw said by telephone." (London South East : Thu, 15th Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile following on from the bombing of the bus yesterday by Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine and that killed 10 passengers,

"NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg has called on Russia to withdraw its support for separatists in eastern Ukraine and use "all its influence" to make them observe a cease-fire agreement." (RFERL : January 14, 2015) (my emphasis)

What is even more disturbing is that,

"Ukrainian officials have stated that new high tech Russian weapons have been used for the first time in east Ukraine. According to Ukrainian army spokesmen, on 13 January insurgent forces deployed the ‘Buratino' multiple rocket launcher system in the latest wave of attacks on Donetsk International Airport." (Ukraine Today : Jan. 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is without a doubt that this weapon can only be operated by trained Russian soldiers and, together with the cutting off of gas supplies last night, signifies that Putin has completely thrown caution to the wind. This represents a serious tipping point from which Putin will be unable to extricate himself from. 

However, as E.L. reports,

" The EU has has also made the supply system a lot more resilient, putting taxpayers’ money into new interconnectors between countries dependent on Russian gas imports. This rewrites the rules. If supplies from the east are interrupted, the countries affected can import gas from elsewhere. As of December, Lithuania, once 100% dependent on Russian gas, is importing liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Norway. Ukraine’s gas imports from the west are rocketing." (E.L. : The Economist : Jan 12th 2015) (my emphasis)

Thus it is only Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey, that are experiencing a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine. Putin's cutting off of gas from the EU in 2006 and 2009 have backfired on him by making the E'U's supply system resilient to such actions of his.  

Putin can therefore no longer rely on 'blackmailing' the EU into lifting their sanctions against Russia, or on oil prices making a recovery.

Mike Smith speculates, however, that Putin,

" ... seem to be engaged in a risky gamble, apparently banking on European nations wavering on sanctions and oil prices making a recovery even as economists predict a deep recession." (Agence France Press [AFP] : 7.30 am (GMT) : 15 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

However Smith fails also to take into account the mind-set of Putin that is inextricably bound to his near pathological perception that he is not only fighting against Ukraine, but also against NATO; that Russia itself is being threatened by Ukraine now being in the camp of the EU, and his absolute and paranoid belief in the encircling encroachment of NATO along Russia's border.

Added to which, as Igor Shadkhan more than two years ago has pointed out,


“Stalin exterminated people out of fear because he was afraid of being betrayed if he eased his grip on power,” he said. “Putin is also scared. He’s a human being and has many reasons to be scared.” (Bloomberg : 2013-08-27)  (my emphasis)



  
The reaction of Ukraine to Putin switching off the gas to mainly former communist members of the old Warsaw Pact has precipitated the Ukrainian parliament today to,

" ... to refresh its front-line forces and resume partial conscription after a top security official warned that Russian forces backing separatist rebels had sharply increased military activity in the east." (Natalia Zinets: Reuters : Thu Jan 15, 2015)

 
 Furthermore, Oleksander Turchynov, secretary of the Ukrainian national defense council, has said that,

"There is an urgent need to strengthen the combat and mobilization readiness of our forces and other military forces up to a level which guarantees an adequate reaction to threats to national security from continuing Russian aggression," (ibid Natalia Zinets) (my emphasis)



Putin cannot stop these developments that his current actions have prompted. He has lit a fuse that, by the hour, is becoming more and more difficult to extinguish. 

(to be continued)

Putin beginning an all-out assault on Ukraine

Valery Gerasimov

Just as Lavrov yesterday suceeded in torpedoing the proposed meeting of Merkel, Poroshenko, Hollande and Putin in Astana on the 15th Jan, General Valery Gerasimov, chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, announced that,

" .... he would beef up combat capabilities this year in Crimea, the Arctic and the country's westernmost Kaliningrad region that borders two NATO states" (Timothy Heritage : Reuters :  Tue Jan 13, 2015)

It can be no co-incidence that at the same time of General Gerasimov's announcement about beefing up the 'combat capabilities this year in Crimea', Putin's proxies in Donetsk accelerated their bombing attacks on and around Donetsk airport.

As reported by Richard Balmforth today (January 14 2015),

"Shelling hit a passenger bus in eastern Ukraine on Tuesday (Wednesday NZT), killing at least 10 people, and fighting intensified around the international airport in the city of Donetsk as separatists tried to oust government forces" (Stuff.co.nz : January 14 2015)

Neither can it be a co-incidence that this military push by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers, as well as the pronouncement of Russian General Gerasimov, has come immediately after Poroshenko announced that,

"Petro Poroshenko on Wednesday (January 14 2015) will sign the decree on the next wave of mobilization. ....

 

Earlier it was reported that the first stage of partial mobilization will begin on January 20 also 90 days will proceed. At this stage in general across Ukraine is planned to call 50 thousand people. For the mobilized citizens according to the legislation of Ukraine it is provided social guarantees for passing of military service." (News pn : 13 January 2015)

The military response of Putin to this call-up, as well as the receiving by the Ukrainian army of more military equipment (including fighter planes), underlines the fact that even when Poroshenko initiated the meeting between himself, Merkel, Hollande, and Putin, and that was to take place in Astana on the 15th Jan., Putin had already decided NOT to attend. This also accounts for the fact that Lavrov was determined to scupper this meeting simply to give Putin a 'diplomatic' argument for not attending.

And what could be more telling than the fact that 1 hour ago (BST 18.50) Oleksander Stashevsky reports that,

"Pro-Kremlin insurgents unleashed a massive rocket assault in Ukraine Wednesday as Kiev and Moscow traded blame for a bus shelling that killed 12 in the war's bloodiest incident since a September truce." (Oleksander Stashevsky : Reuters : 14 Jan 2015)

Very disturbing indeed is the fact that,

"Kiev claims that the fighters employed a massive 30-barrel flamethrower, a type used by Russia but not Ukraine. Kiev said insurgents used it for the first time overnight to attack the eastern village of Vesele.

This type of system "only exists in the operational service of the Russian army. It is not operated by us," Ukrainian defence ministry spokeswoman Viktoria Kushnir told AFP. (ibid Oleksander Stashevsky) (my emphasis)

Konstantin Dolgov

The fact that Lavrov corrected Konstantin Dolgov (Russian Foreign Ministry's human rights investigator), who immediately blamed Kiev for the deaths in the bus that was shelled and stated that, "We are outraged. This undermines all peace settlement efforts", exposes the fact that not all Kremlin 'apparatchiks' are singing from the same Putin hymn-sheet.

Thus, Lavrov had to quickly correct Dolgov by saying that,

 
"there are... several versions (of the incident). We need to examine them."( ibid Oleksander Stashevsky)   

It would seem, therefore, that Putin has decided on a FULL ESCALATION of his war with Ukraine.

Putin has been in this situation before. After the FSB (formerly the KGB) blew up those flats in Moscow that killed hundreds of innocent sleeping people, Putin had his argument to launch a massive strike against Chechnya.

And now we have the blowing up of a bus and the brutal killing of 10 civilians. And immediately following that event Putin intensifies his assault against Ukrainian troops at the Donetsk airport and along the borders of the rebel-held Ukrainian territory and Ukraine.

I am reminded of the words that Gorbachev spoke but a few days ago.

"... [I]f either side lost its nerve in the current stand-off, it could lead to nuclear war, and [he] spoke of his fears that the world “will not survive the next few years”. (Justin Huggler : Daily Telegraph : 11 Jan 2015)

Is Putin about to push the world over the precipice into full-scale war in Europe?

(to be continued)

Was Putin too afraid to attend the Astana meeting?

And so it has happened as predicted. As I wrote yesterday,

" ... his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has to throw as many spanners as he can muster into the foreign ministers meeting between Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia on the 12 Jan in Berlin (today), so that Putin can have a 'diplomatic' argument  for not attending the Astana meeting" (blog entry 12/1/2015)
 
Thus this morning we read that,

"Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said after meeting ministers from Germany, France and Ukraine in Berlin on Monday that all had agreed that only a strict ceasefire could pave the way for the countries' leaders to meet in the Kazakh capital Astana." (Reuters : Tue Jan 13)

What, exactly, does Lavrov mean by the "observing of a strict ceasefire"? 

Given that Putin is adamant that there are NO Russian soldiers fighting in eastern Ukraine alongside his proxies, the logic that then flows from Lavrov's argument is that;  

• the Ukrainian army should lay down their arms
• Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine can then be supplied with more arms from Russia
• more Russian soldiers can then cross the border into eastern Ukraine to counter Poroshenko's call-up of 50,000 more Ukrainian troops specifically to begin to control the BORDER between Russia and Ukraine

"According to Poroshenko, Ukraine's military forces are 100 percent equipped, while several months ago the army only had 20 percent of the needed supplies." ( KyivPost : Jan. 5, 2015)


But, most important of all, 

"Lavrov's comments put an end to plans for talks in Astana on Thursday, to which Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko had invited the Russian, French and German leaders.
"According to the ministers, this (work on implementing the deal) will allow plans for a successful summit in Astana to move forward. It was agreed that it was necessary to work more on this," Lavrov said." (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

               Poroshenko                              Merkel                               Hollande                           Putin

These developments do seem to strongly indicate that Putin;

• does not have to be seen to have buckled under the weight of the collapsing Russian economy
• may have increased his isolation within his kleptocratic clan that is now in control of Russia
• like Stalin, is displaying real fear of being betrayed if he eased his grip on power
• giving his bevy of his supporters in the EU, especially Hollande, Renzi, and the 'fragrant Mogherini, a further argument for sanctions against Russia to be lifted.

            Hollande                               Renzi                 The 'fragrant' Mogherini

Putin's global propaganda machine RT rather succinctly exposes Lavrov's spanners that he threw into the foreign minister's meeting in Berlin yesterday to get Putin off the hook of having to attend the proposed 15 Jan meeting in Astana.

Notice further how the reporter refers to the rebel-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine as 'republics'. This rather exposes the fact that Putin has absolutely no intention of stemming the flow of armaments and Russian soldiers across the border between Russia and Ukraine into those territories occupied by his proxies and their Russian-soldier helpers, in the face of international law, notwithstanding the constant mantra of denial emanating from the bowels of the Kremlin.

We also learn that yesterday Viktor Yanukovych, deposed president of Ukraine has, after one year,  been finally placed on the wanted list of Interpol for embezzling billions of dollars in public funds from Ukraine. (BBC News : 12 January 2015)

 Yet we have the movie director, Oliver Stone,

"... wanting to make a four-hour documentary telling the [so-called] "dirty story" of the overthrow of former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in what he believes was a "coup" organized with the help of the United States' Central Intelligence Agency." (Moscow Times : Dec. 31 2014)

This is the same Oliver Stone who has argued that,

"Hitler is an easy scapegoat throughout history and it's been used cheaply," he said. Then he mentioned the S word. "Stalin has a complete other story. Not to paint him as a hero, but to tell a more factual representation. He fought the German war machine more than any person." (Ed Pilkington : The Guardian : Sunday 10 January 2010)

He further claimed,

" .... that the Russians suffered more during the Second World War and that there was a Jewish 'domination of the media'." (Daniel Bates : Mail Online : 28 July 2010)

which he later retracted saying,

"'In trying to make a broader historical point about the range of atrocities the Germans committed against many people, I made a clumsy association about the Holocaust, for which I am sorry and I regret." (ibid Daniel Bates)

Now that Interpol will be hunting down Yanukovych, will Stone continue to make his propaganda documentary that will be sweet music to the ears of Putin?

(to be continued)

 

Is Putin cornered? What, then, will he do?

Dmitry Zaks on Saturday Jan 10, reported that,

Dmitry Zaks

"Ukraine fended off renewed financial pressure from Russia on Saturday by accusing Moscow of orchestrating rebel attacks that killed two soldiers and heightened tensions ahead of mooted international peace talks.

The stakes between Moscow and Kiev have been rising since Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko surprised many at the end of December by announcing plans to meet Russia's Vladimir Putin at a mini-summit in the Kazakh capital Astana on Thursday." (AFP (Agence France Press) : Jan 10 2014)

Furthermore that the,

" ... most immediate danger facing Kiev is the prospect of Moscow demanding the early payment of $3 billion (2.5 billion euros) it had lent former president Viktor Yanukovych in December 2013 to convince him to ditch an EU alliance and side with the Kremlin instead." (ibid Dmitri Zaks) (my emphasis)

Yulia Silena

Even more worrying is the fact that,

"[i]ntense fighting erupted around east Ukraine's main rebel-held city on Sunday that wrecked a power station and briefly trapped more than 300 coal miners in one of Europe's largest pits.
Repeated rounds of rocket and mortar fire echoed across snow-covered Donetsk on Sunday evening despite a formal truce in the nine-month war."( Yulia Silena : Agence France Press (AFP: 12 Jan 2015)

It would seem that the strategy of Putin, ahead of the Berlin meeting today between  the foreign ministers of Ukraine, France, Russia and Germany, is to:

•  use his demand for early payment of money lent to Yanukovich (cf. Dmitry Zaks) and
•  use the eruption of fighting between his proxies in Donetsk and the Ukrainian army

                       Klimkin (Ukraine)              Fabius (France)            Lavrov (Russia)           Steinmeier (Germany)

(a) as 'bargaining' chips
               OR
(b) to ensure that the proposed meeting in Astana on the 15 Jan 2015 between himself, Poroshenko,  Merkel, and Hollande DOES NOT GO AHEAD.



Furthermore, the escalating of fighting in Donetsk yesterday (11/1/2015) seems to be aimed directly at bolstering the call of Hollande that the sanctions against Russia should now be withdrawn.



At the same time it would seem as though Steinmeir and Merkel may be closing ranks.

Both of them are now

" .... pushing for progress on implementing a much-violated peace deal that was drawn up in Minsk in September. Berlin says a substantial narrowing of differences is needed for a summit to take place." (AP (Associated Press) : 12/1/2015) (my emphasis)

This attitude of  Merkel is best illustrated when she welcomed the Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, with full military honours, on the 8 Jan 2015, and spelt out that,

" ... All points of the Minsk Agreement must be fulfilled, even though some of them would not immediately be met." (DW : jr/msh (Reuters, AFP, AP) : 08.01.2015) (my emphasis)

It would therefore seem that Merkel is throwing down the gauntlet to Putin. And it is possibly this attitude of Merkel that Putin is trying to break with his demand for the early payment of the loan given to Yanukovich, as well as  ramping up the fighting of his proxies in eastern Ukraine against the Ukrainian army.

Poroshenko seems to have somewhat pre-empted this belligerent move of Putin since,

"Ukraine's Ministry of Defense plans to bolster its military by calling up some 50,000 people during a new wave of mobilization, the ministry's spokesperson Viktoria Kushnir said Tuesday.
"About 50,000 people will be called up, including […]reservists, officers, and soldiers doing their compulsory service," Kushnir announced during a press briefing." (Sputnik : 23.12.2014)

Coupled with this is the fact that,


"According to Poroshenko, Ukraine's military forces are 100 percent equipped, while several months ago the army only had 20 percent of the needed supplies." ( KyivPost : Jan. 5, 2015)




What we therefore have is that:

• Merkel is throwing down the gauntlet to Putin
• the Ukrainian army is readied to face Putin's military machine in eastern Ukraine
• Putin is being forced to try to scupper the upcoming Astana meeting on the 15 Jan so that he does not have to be seen to have buckled under the weight of the collapsing Russian economy
• his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov has to throw as many spanners as he can muster into the foreign ministers meeting between Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia on the 12 Jan in Berlin (today), so that Putin can have a 'diplomatic' argument  for not attending the Astana meeting

Perhaps, as Evgenia Pismennaya and Irina Reznik point out,

Shadkhan and Putin

"While Putin doesn’t share Stalin’s totalitarian impulses, he does have a similar understanding and sense of fear, according to the filmmaker [ Igor Shadkhan].
“Stalin exterminated people out of fear because he was afraid of being betrayed if he eased his grip on power,” he said. “Putin is also scared. He’s a human being and has many reasons to be scared.”
Sooner or later, though, Shadkhan said Putin will have to overcome that fear and realize he must step down." (Bloomberg : 2013-08-27)

What is rather disconcerting is that  Putin told Shadkhan that,

" ...  totalitarianism isn’t something that can be imposed from the top in Russia because it’s “embedded in our own people’s mentality.” Shadkhan said he’d now like to ask Putin who’s “to blame for the resurrection of the authoritarian regime? The people?” (ibid Evgenia Pismennaya and Irina Reznik)

It is two years since this article was written and we can now see that just as Putin assumes that totalitarianism is 'embedded in the minds of the Russian people', then it must also be embedded in his own mind.

It would therefore seem that just like Stalin, Putin would have no qualms in dispensing with those around him who may even just hint at betraying him. 

Maybe, therefore, Gorbachev is correct in

" ... accusing [Putin] in a recent book of overconfidence and believing himself to be “second only to God”.  (Justin Huggler : The Telegraph : 11 Jan 2015) (my emphasis)

More importantly, maybe he is also correct in saying that,

""We won't survive the coming years if someone loses their nerve in this overheated situation". ... "This is not something I'm saying thoughtlessly. I am extremely concerned." (Reuters : Fri Jan 9, 2015)


(to be continued)