Putin mobilising his 'supporters' in the EU

"President Vladimir Putin has urged government officials to work over the lengthy New Year's holidays, saying they "cannot afford" to take the time off amid the country's economic crisis.

Much of Russia comes to a standstill during the 10-day official holidays that run from New Year's Day until after Orthodox Christmas. With weekends factored in, most of the country's employees will be off until Jan. 11 this year — but not government officials, Putin told a Cabinet meeting Thursday." (The St. Petersburg Times: December 27, 2014)

This represents a blow to Putin's prime constituency viz. the teachers, doctors, administration officials, local authority employees, and many other bureaucrats, that have been constantly bribed with higher salaries and more amenable working conditions. 

Added to which, as CBS reports, major credit card companies Visa and Mastercard are no longer offering services in Crimea. This blow comes just as people are preparing for the New Year celebrations.

These economic difficulties confronting Putin's prime constituency are as nothing compared to the fact that every third property in Russia is bought with a mortgage,

".Russian authorities are mobilizing to clamp down on spiraling mortgage costs as a looming recession erodes real wages and threatens to hammer homebuyers. . ." (The St. Petersburg Times: Monday, December 29, 2014)

Russia's professional class is being hit where it will hurt most viz. mortgage re-payments and falling real wages.

Journalists attend news conference of Ukrainian 
President Petro Poroshenko in Kiev, December 
29, 2014

It is therefore no wonder that Putin will be attending a meeting with Poroshenko, Merkel, and Hollande on the 15th January 2015, as reported by Reuters (Kiev Mon Dec 29, 2014)

Meanwhile, Putin's propaganda mouthpiece, Russia Today (RT) reports that Putin's favourite EU Foreign Affairs High Representative, the 'fragrant' Mogherini, 

"...[d]uring an interview with Italy's la Repubblica newspaper,  ....... suggested opening up direct dialogue with Moscow.
 
“On the one hand, we should strengthen our support for Ukraine, where the internal economic situation could very quickly become very serious. And, on the other hand, we should begin a direct debate with Moscow on our relations and the role Russia could play in other scenarios of the crisis,” Mogherini said." (RT : December 29, 2014)

Now there are a few rather strange points in this statement of the 'fragrant' Mogherini.

• "the internal economic situation in Ukraine could become very serious"-- Is Mogherini aware that just a few hours ago, "Ukraine's parliament backed a budget for 2015 on Monday that it had been under pressure to approve to secure the next tranche of financial aid under a $17 billion International Monetary Fund loan package, the Interfax news agency reported." (Reuters : Kiev Mon Dec 29, 2014)
•  Critically, the 'fragrant' Mogherini DOES NOT mention the fact that the Russian economy is practically on the verge of collapse. Why this focussing on the economy of Ukraine whilst turning a blind-eye on the parlous state of the Russian economy?
•  Is Mogherini aware of the impending meeting on the 15th January 2015 between the Putin that she so admires and Poroshenko, Merkel, and Hollande? 
• What, exactly, does she mean by, "the role Russia could play in other scenarios of the crisis"? This is a totally meaningless statement and could have been taken out of  a list of  "buzzwords" and "buzz phrases" that sound rather impressive but that is, in reality, totally meaningless e.g. "other scenarios of the crisis".

Perhaps even more bizarre, she rejected the idea,

"...that the EU’s position on the [Ukrainian] crisis differs from that of the US..." by arguing that,

“It is not true that there is a soft Europe stance, which opposes the US hardline position. On the contrary, the latest data shows that trade between Russia and Europe is declining, while trade between Russia and the US is increasing,” she pointed out. ". (ibid RT) (my emphasis)

What, exactly, does trade between the US and Europe have to do with the Ukrainian crisis? How can the fact that trade between the US and Europe is increasing have ANYTHING to do with their differing approaches to the Ukrainian crisis?

If this is strange logic, what follows is even more perplexing:

"Mogherini said that Washington's views on Russia match those of Europe, adding that “everyone wants to get out of the logic of confrontation.” (ibid RT) (my emphasis)

The 'logic of confrontation'???

These near meaningless 'diplomatic' statements of the 'fragrant' Mogherini strongly indicates that she is emerging as the spokeswoman for the EU's Russia-friendly states.

Who are these EU Russia-friendly states?

"The Russia-friendly camp includes Austria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Slovakia,.." (Andrew Rettman: euobserver : 29 Dec 2014)

Austria: Heinz Fischer         Czech Rep: Milos Zema        Slovakia: Andrej Kiska         Hungary: Janos Ader

Austria's Social Democrat Heinz Fischer makes absolutely no bones about his support of Putin, pushing the Putin-Lavrov "TROJAN idea of federalizing i.e. BREAKING UP, Ukraine.

"What the Ukraine crisis needs are talks around decentralization reforms, Fischer noted.
“Serious talk of reforms in the area of decentralization or federalization would have to be done, which would foster a situation in eastern Ukraine where both sides could live together.” (RT: December 29, 2014) (my emphasis)

And sitting on the sidelines of this Russian-friendly camp we have Mogherini's Italy, as well as Germany and France.

               Germany:  Merkel                               France: Hollande                                 Italy: Renzi

There does seem to be a growing rift between Merkel and her Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier.

"Until now, he has stuck closely to conservative Chancellor Angela Merkel's firm line with Russian President Vladimir Putin. But the comments to Der Spiegel suggested cracks may be emerging between the two." (Noah Barkin, Reuters : Dec. 22, 2014)

"Frank-Walter Steinmeier told German weekly Der Spiegel that he was worried Russia could be destabilized if EU sanctions were not eased." (ibid Noah Barkin)

whilst

"[Merkel]  sees no reason to think about changes to the EU's sanctions regime against Moscow at the moment .." (ibid Noah Barkin) (my emphasis)

Maybe Steinmeier should be made aware of the following information regarding the investigation by German authorities of Putin's criminal past.

And perhaps this explains the HOT-COLD attitude of Hollande towards Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

Is Hollande suffering from the French 'Russian mirage'?

(to be continued)

Putin's crisis military doctrine, occupied Crimea, the New Year, and a distraught mother

"A Black Swan event is an event in human history that [is] unprecedented and totally unexpected at the point in time [that] it [occurs]."

Khordokovsky hinted in a recent interview that a 'Black Swan' event is needed if Putin is to be toppled from power.

However, Putin may create his own 'Black Swan' event to deflect the eyes of the Russian people away from their increasing economic hardship as their economy continues on its downward spiral towards recession and unemployment.


Is the fact that only last Friday Putin signed a new 'crisis' military doctrine (Reuters: Fri Dec 26, 2014) targeting NATO and focussing on INTERNAL risks that could destabilise the country, an indication that he is possibly laying the groundwork for his own  'Black Swan' event?

Even more ominous, the recent (26-12-2014) bombings in Odessa and Kharkiv are, according to Shkiriak, due to the fact that

" ... Kharkiv and Odessa have recently become the cities that are used by terrorists to stress the situation" . (UNIAN Information Agency :26.12.2014)

As a direct result of these bombings,

"Train and bus traffic [to and from Russian occupied Crimea] was suspended because "there is a high likelihood of sabotage groups entering under the guise of local people," Ukrainian security council spokesman Col. Andriy Lysenko told a briefing. He didn't say how long the closure would last." (Yahoo News : 28-12-2014) (my emphasis)

 

All of this comes against the backdrop of Ukraine,

" ... supplying limited amounts of electricity to [Russian occupied] Crimea on Saturday but the shortages of power compelled the regional power grids operator to continue rolling outages in different parts of the peninsular republic, Sergei Yegorov, the Crimean minister of fuel and energy told TASS" (SIMFEROPOL, December 27 2014)

It is for this reason, and this reason alone, that Russia has decided to supply Ukraine with both electricity and coal to forestall Ukraine completely cutting off electricity supplies to Russian occupied Crimea. Why else would Russia suddenly have a change of mind regarding supplying Ukraine with coal, IMMEDIATELY AFTER Ukraine suspended train and bus services to Russian occupied Crimea? 

Furtheremore, that Ukraine will be charged the SAME price for this coal as it costs for coal in Russia itself, and WITHOUT Ukraine having to pay UPFRONT for this coal. (South China Morning Post : Sat Dec 27, 2014)

As Deputy Prime Minister of Russia, Dmitry Kozak, told Rossiya 24 television,

"Supplies will come at Russian domestic prices, Kozak said, adding that he hoped the move would help ensure reliable energy supplies to Crimea." (ibid South China Morning Post) (my emphasis)

But what about the threat of Putin to move nuclear weapons onto Russian occupied Crimea? As that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Lavrov said on Dec. 16, 2014,

"Crimea has now become part of a country that has such weapons under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons,” Lavrov told the Interfax News Service. “And by international law, the Russian state has all grounds to dispose of its legitimate nuclear arsenal in accordance with its interests and in accordance with its international legal obligations." (Rob Garver,The Fiscal Times : 16-12-2014)

Is this threat now receding in light of Russia supplying electricity and coal to Ukraine, so that Russian occupied Crimea does not suffer from a winter of darkness? So that its soldiers now stationed there can celebrate the coming New Year by being able to use all their IPhones and laptops and TV's? So that Russian occupied Crimea can be lit up for the coming celebrations?

The coming New Year celebrations will not, however, be as sumptuous as those of 2013. Already,

"Russian companies are cutting back on the lavish New Year's parties that have become a hallmark of Russian corporate culture as falling oil prices and breakneck ruble devaluation stoke fears of economic crisis." (Delphine d'Amora : Moscow Times: Dec. 12 2014)

 Added to which, ordinary Russian citizens will be confronted with rising local food prices and a complete lack of all those western foodstuffs and consumer goods that they have become so accustomed to.

But perhaps, most saddening of all during this festive season in Russia, 

"During his annual press conference earlier this month, Vladimir Putin, the president, said that all Russian combatants in Ukraine’s Donbas region were volunteers answering “a call of the heart”. 

"Anton Tumanov gave up his life for his country - but his country won’t say where, and it won’t say how.

His mother knows. She knows that Mr Tumanov, a 20 year-old junior sergeant in the Russian army, was killed in eastern Ukraine, torn apart in a rocket attack on August 13.

Yelena Tumanova, 41, learned these bare facts about her son’s death from one of his comrades, who saw him get hit and scooped up his body.

“What I don’t understand is what he died for,” she says. “Why couldn’t we let people in Ukraine sort things out for themselves? And seeing as our powers sent Anton there, why can’t they admit it and tell us exactly what happened to him.”(Tom Parfitt, Kozmodemyansk : Daily Telegraph : 27 Dec 2014) (my emphasis)

Yelena Tumanova visits her son Anton’s grave in his home town of Kozmodemyansk, 400 miles east of Moscow, Russia   Picture by Tom Parfitt.

(to be continued)

Putin's economic woes, the price of vodka, and dying pensioners

In the first entry of this blog (Tuesday, 10 June 2014) I wrote that,

"The lanes of history are littered with men who have behaved as Putin currently does over Crimea and the Ukraine. Nowadays there are many who are likening him to Hitler or Stalin. If we go back further in history the name of Napoleon springs to mind. Still further, during the heyday of the Roman Empire, the image of Nero looms large.

But Putin is Putin, living today with his peculiar demons and not with those of others."

Pictured From left to right : Russian Ambassador to

Belarus Alexander Surikov, Russian Ambassador

to Ukraine Mikhail Zurabov and former Ukrainian

President Leonid Kuchma

A rather potent and recent indicator of the peculiarity of Putin's demons is the failure of the Minsk talks which ended yesterday (Dec 24, 2014),

"after more than five hours, with no indication of progress and questions about when the next round might take place." (ABC News: Yuras Karmanau Associated Press : Dec 24, 2014) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"News media were not allowed access to the meeting and the participants left the session without comment. Another round had been tentatively set for Friday, but the Belarusian Foreign Ministry said after the session's conclusion that it was unclear if that would take place." (ibid Yuras Karmanau) (my emphasis)

From this failure we can rightly assume that the economic catastrophe that has just recently descended upon Putin's Russia, and which Putin almost rather glibly dismissed during his marathon press conference last Thursday, has rather rattled him. 

Thus, as Tom Parfitt reported from Moscow,

"Vladimir Putin signalled he would not back down over the Ukraine crisis on Thursday, likening the West to a bloodthirsty opponent intent on “tearing out the claws and teeth” of the Russian bear.

Speaking at his annual press conference in Moscow, Russia’s president accused the United States and Europe of deciding “that they are winners, they are an empire now and the rest are vassals and they have to be driven into a corner”.(Daily Telegraph: 18 Dec 2014) (my emphasis)

But the more significant statement of Putin during this marathon press conference was,

President Putin enjoying a concert 

honoring security personnel Saturday

with FSB director Alexander Bortnikov

 and SVR director Mikhail Fradkov.

"The strength is in the truth. When a Russian feels he is right, he is invincible — I am saying it with absolute sincerity," he argued, making a reference to popular Russian film "Brother 2," which, according to a review at the time of its release in 2000, "manifested Russia's new snobbery toward the U.S."(The Moscow Times ; van Nechepurenko Dec. 21 2014) (my emphasis)

Is it any wonder, therefore , that the recently convened Minsk meeting ended up in failure, even though there has been a prisoner exchange between Putin's rebels in eastern Ukraine and the Ukrainian army? (BBC News Europe : 26 December 2014)

Yet, as reported in Xinhua  by He Mengshu,

"Merkel is known to have discussed the issue many times with world leaders, including U.S. President Barack Obama, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, emerging more and more as a pivotal leader in helping settle the conflict." (China News : 26-12-2014)

As He Mengshu notes, Merkel has become the pivotal point around which a diplomatic resolution of the war between Ukraine and Russia revolves. What will Merkel now do given that even the lastest attempt at resucitating the Minsk protocols of September has ended in failure? Added to which, that dyed-in-the-wool Lavrov has the temerity to suggest that,

"In order to solve the ongoing crisis in the country, Ukrainian authorities must launch constitutional reform uniting all political forces and all regions of the war-torn country, the Russian Foreign Minister has said.

The reform must take into consideration all strata of Ukrainian society and representatives from all the country’s regions, Sergey Lavrov stated in an interview with Kommersant daily, released on Thursday" (RT : December 25, 2014) (my emphasis) 

This is yet another subtle message that Putin really wants the creation of a Federal Ukraine. As stated in the Minsk protocols,

“To decentralize power, including through the adoption by Ukraine of law 'on provisional procedure for local government in parts of Donetsk and Lugansk regions (law on special status),'” states one of the provisions in the document." (RT: September 07, 2014) (my emphasis)

As I have stated before, Putin has long ago relegated those Minsk protocols to the dustbin of history. Now they are merely a tool that Putin uses to shore up Merkel's pivotal position in trying to diplomatically bring to an end the war between Ukraine and Russia. 

But for how long can Putin  play this game with Merkel, especially now that the Russian economy is in dire straits? For how long can Lavrov, this so-called 'experienced' Foreign Minister of Russia, continue to play this game of deception on the international stage? Surely even he must be tiring of having to continually sing the mantra of giving the rebel-held territoriy of eastern Ukraine 'special status' simply so that Putin can 'save face'?

Let it be said that Putin does not give a fig for the brutal suffering of the people in the rebel-controlled area of eastern Ukraine. Does Putin loose any sleep over the fact that the elderly are starving and freezing to death in the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine? 

"Though Ukraine has not publicly discussed starvation deaths, it acknowledges there is a humanitarian crisis in the eastern region because of the conflict and blames the separatists and Russia for supporting the rebels.
The government cut off pensions this month to people in all areas of eastern Ukraine controlled by separatists to undercut support for pro-Russian rebels." (USA Today: Tatyana Goryachova and Hal Foster : December 25, 2014) (my emphasis)

And whilst pensioners are starving and dying in eastern Ukraine,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered his government to rein in rising vodka prices, as he battles to preserve his popularity amid an aggravating economic crisis ....... Russia is facing its worst economic crisis since 1998, when the country devalued the rouble and defaulted on its debt .." (Daily Mail: 26 December 2014) (my emphasis)

Is the noose tightening around Putin's neck?  Is Putin on the verge of creating a 'Black Swan' event to maintain his popularity in Russia?

(to be continued)

Putin, Khodorkovsky, and Medvedev ... Ukraine no longer non-aligned

Finally it has dawned upon Dmitri Medvedev that the Russian economy is not in the good shape that Putin, in his meeting with the press last Thursday (18 Dec. 2014), assumed it to be.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has attempted to assuage fears of economic collapse and promised rapid recovery as he faced hundreds of journalists amid the worst financial crisis of his rule." (Aljazeera :  18 Dec 2014)

As he boldly stated,

"Under the most unfavourable world conditions, such a situation can last two years," Putin said days after the Russian rouble fell to record lows, following a 60-percent dive in value since the beginning of the year." (ibid Aljazeera) (my emphasis)

Like King Canute, Putin is ordering the waves of a disastrous Russian economic downturn to recede but, unfortunately, to no avail.

Unlike Putin, Dmitri Medvedev is under no illusions. Yesterday (Tues. 23 Dec. 2014) he warned that,

".... the country faces a risk of a "deep recession" if the government ditches its spending plans.
Speaking at a meeting of his party, Medvedev said ...... that the government won't retreat from its strategic aims and social spending. Otherwise, he said Russia could plunge into a "deep recession." (CNBC : Tues. 23 Dec. 2014)

              Khodorkovsky                           Medvedev

If Medvedev is under no illusions about the parlous state of the Russian economy, then neither is Khodorkovsky.

"[Khodorkovsky] is proposing himself as a “crisis manager” to bring real democracy to the country if President Vladimir Putin leaves office.

On his own potential role in Russia, the former owner of the Yukos oil company said he was “by mentality a crisis manager”.
“My personal interest is what I can do — and that’s [lead] a transitional government, which carries out political reform. And that means only one thing — rule of law.” (FT : Neil Buckley: December 19, 2014) (my emphasis)

                        Bloomberg TV : Recent (Dec 2014) Khodorkovsky Interview

Khodorkovsky is throwing his hat into the Russian political ring, strangely enough almost with the blessing of Putin himself. For did Putin not recently say that,

" .... former oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky, one of his biggest critics, had the right to engage in politics “as any Russian citizen” ( Reuters : December 18 2014)

                            Putin                                         Khodorkovsky

What is rather puzzling about this new stance of Khodorkovsky is that almost a year ago (12 Dec 2013)  he said that, " .... he would return to Russia, but ruled out entering politics to challenge the regime of President Vladimir Putin" (Daily Telegraph : Roland Oliphant : 22 Dec 2013) (my emphasis)


Even more interesting, he also said on that same day that,  " ..... he and Mr Putin know each other so well that they "do not need to say another word to receive another word to understand one another's answers .." (ibid Roland Oliphant) (my emphasis)

As strange as these developments may seem in light of Russia's current economic problems; let it not be forgotten that Putin and Khodorkovsky share the SAME view about Ukrainian Crimea being historically an integral part of 'Mother Russia'. Just as Putin will never return Ukrainian Crimea to Ukraine, neither will Khodorkovsky.

Kasparov regards this stand of Khodorkovsky as nothing short of scandalous.

Kasparov

"When commenting on the scandalous statements made by Alexey Navalny and Mikhail Khodorkovsky that they would not return Crimea to Ukraine, Kasparov emphasized that the conclusion an external observer could reach after this consists of the fact that there is no essential alternative to Putin in Russia." (EuroMaidan Press: 20 Oct. 2014) (my emphasis)

If Kasparov is right in his assessment that there really is no alternative to Putin in Russia, then you have to conclude that even Khodorkovsky, who could soon replace Medvedev, will also be confronted by the fact that Ukraine has just voted to drop its non-aligned status and work towards NATO membership.

 The apoplexy in the Kremlin following to-day's (23 Dec 2014) vote in the Ukrainian Rada is best summed up by that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Lavrov viz.

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov called the move "counterproductive" and said it would boost tensions." (BBC News Europe: 23 December 2014)

President Poroshenko

President Propshenko, addressing foreign ambassadors on Monday night said,

"Ukraine's "fight for its independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty has turned into a decisive factor in our relations with the world". (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)


We await Putin's response to this decisive vote in the Ukrainian Rada. Is this the 'Black Swan' event which Khodorkovsky, in his Bloomberg TV Interview, argues is needed to change the political landscape in Russia, or will this vote force Putin into precipitating a dangerous 'Black Swan' event that could lead to his demise.

(to be continued)

Putin, Lukashenko, and Nazerbaev ... and new sanctions against Crimea

In a previous blog I mentioned that,

"As with Ukraine, "Vladimir Putin made ominous comments on Kazakhstan's statehood at the Seliger Youth Forum last month"  (Casy Michel The Moscow Times September 16, 2014) It would therefore seems that Putin's dream about a Eurasian Economic Community, a counter economic block to the EU, is rapidly evaporating. Putin's fine words viz. "that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions", simply does not "butter any parsnips". But for how long will these sanctions last?"

Furthermore ,

"As reported by Abdujalil Abdurasulov (BBC: 9 November 2014) from northern Kazakhstan,

"The crisis in Ukraine has prompted many [in Kazakhstan]  to ask who the Russian community in Kazakhstan would support if relations with Moscow turned sour.

"Events in Ukraine became a good lesson for Kazakhstan," says Dosym Satpayev, a political analyst.
He says that it helped people to realise that northern Kazakhstan is a very sensitive issue - and not simply because of large Russian communities living there.

Mr Satpayev argues that people in the region, like many others in Kazakhstan, are especially receptive to Russia's propaganda machine. (my emphasis)"

Even more interesting, "[the] Belarusian President Lukashenko says that if the seizure of Crimea is justified on the grounds that it is an historically Russian territory then, based the same reasoning, most of Russia, Western and Eastern Europe should be returned to Khazakstan and Mongolia." (Ukraine Today: 9 Oct. 2014) (my emphasis)

It is therefore interesting that both the president of Belarus and Kazakhstan, Lukashenko and Nazarbaev respectively, are having discussions with Ukrainian president Poroshenko. Lukashenko visited Kiev on the 19th Dec. 2014, and Nazarbaev will be seeing him on the 22 Dec. 2014.

Thereafter, both Lukashenko and Nazarbaev will be visiting Moscow on 23 Dec. 2014

" for a meeting of presidents from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)" (RFERL : Sunday, December 21, 201)

The CSTO is,

" .... an intergovernmental military alliance which was signed on 15 May 1992. In 1992, six post-Soviet states belonging to the Commonwealth of Independent States—Russia, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan—signed the Collective Security Treaty. Three other post- Soviet states—Azerbaijan, Belarus, and Georgia—signed the next year and the treaty took effect in 1994. Five years later, six of the nine—all but Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Uzbekistan—agreed to renew the treaty for five more years " (Wikipedia)"

Now it is interesting to note that Putin chaired a meeting with senior military officials at the Defense Ministry's control room in Moscow, December 19, 2014 ( Vladimir Soldatkin, Reuters Dec 20, 2014)

Furthermore, that he spoke at a concert honouring past and present security service staff at the State Kremlin Palace in Moscow, December 20, 2014. (Reuters/Alexei Druzhinin/RIA Novosti/Kremlin) (my emphasis)

At this concert, Putin categorically said that,

"Russia will not be intimidated over its actions in Ukraine and Crimea,  ....... as his foreign ministry warned that it was preparing to retaliate against fresh Western sanctions. " (ibid Alexei Druzhinin) 

These new sanctions refer, of course, to those recently announced by the EU,  Canada and the US. These sanctions are specifically directed towards the occupation by Russia of Ukrainian Crimea.

Given Nazarbaev's fears that what Putin has done in Ukraine he may also, in the near future, attempt to do in Kazakhstan, and that Lukashenko disagrees with his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea; what, then, will they be discussing at their upcoming meeting in Moscow on 23 Dec. 2014?

Putin cannot be as belligerent towards them as he is towards the EU, US, and Canada in particular.

It would therefore seems as though a sort of re-start of those Trojan Minsk proposals of Putin is on the cards for discussion between Putin, Nazarbaev, and Lukashenko.. This would tie in with Nazarbaev's and Lukashenko's visit to Kiev, as well as to Merkel's, Hollande's, and the 'fragrant' Mogherini's constant chant that those Minsk proposals hold the key to ending the war between Russia and Ukraine.

Unfortunately, as I stated in an earlier blog, Putin seems to have already relegated the Minsk proposals to the dustbin of history.

Added to which, Pososhenko is adamant that he will not

" ....  discuss one of the separatists' main demands -- that he resume the social welfare payments to the war-torn region that Kiev suspended last month ... since [he] argues [quite correctly] that the money is being stolen by the insurgents and used to pay guerrillas and foreign mercenaries." (AFP : December 21, 2014)

This main 'demand' of Putin's rebels could be due to,

" ...[their] inability to improve life in the socially devastated region [which now] threatens to turn the locals against them and undermine their claims of legitimacy." (ibid AFP) (my emphasis)

Added to which, no matter how many times Putin throws a tantrum against the EU, US, and  Canada in particular, his 'tanking' economy due to falling oil prices and the near collapse of the rouble cannot be stopped by simply 'shouting at it'.

(to be continued)

Putin's News Conference

Today, 18th December, 2014, Putin has had his now annual 'meeting with the press'. Representatives of the press around the world were told to keep their questions rather short so that Putin 'could be heard', so to speak. And 'heard' he was!

What did they hear? As Tom Parfitt reports from Moscow,

"Vladimir Putin signalled he would not back down over the Ukraine crisis on Thursday, likening the West to a bloodthirsty opponent intent on “tearing out the claws and teeth” of the Russian bear.

Speaking at his annual press conference in Moscow, Russia’s president accused the United States and Europe of deciding “that they are winners, they are an empire now and the rest are vassals and they have to be driven into a corner”.(Daily Telegraph: 18 Dec 2014) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as Tom Parfitt reports,

"...the Russian leader was tough in his words over the annexation of Crimea and the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine, once again blaming the West for starting the conflict – while ducking a sharp question from a Ukrainian journalist who asked how many Russian soldiers had died fighting there, and what he would say to their mothers." (ibid Daily Telegraph)

Why is it then that the likes of Merkel, Hollande, Renzi, and the 'fragrant' Mogherini, continue to place nearly ALL their diplomatic eggs into the Minsk Protocols basket? Putin is continuously signalling that he simply will NOT 'back down over Ukraine'. Therefore, the question that needs to be asked is,

"Is Putin's fervent nationalistic stance purely for his Russian audience; to somehow deflect their gaze away from the dire Russian economy and towards those 'bloodthisty' western opponents of Russia?"

Many western 'political pundits' are of the opinion that this is, indeed, the case. But for how long can this last? How long can Putin literally 'pull the wool' over the eyes of the Russian people? Nothwithstanding the fact that Putin is practically in complete control over what the Russian people hear and see and read, nevertheless there comes a point when all his 'patriotic' nationalistic fervour is bound to run into a buffer. And that buffer is the failing Russian economy, the falling value of the rouble, and the increasingly rapid rise in the price of basic goods such as food.

As John Simpson says in the video,

" ... Next month (Jan 2015) the big price rises will start coming through  and the economic FREEZE will be [in Russia] in earnest."   

On the same day as Putin 'met the press',

“... President [Obama] signed into law H.R. 5859, the "Ukraine Freedom Support Act of 2014," which contains sanctions provisions on various Russian persons and entities and military and non-military assistance authorities for Ukraine.”

The bill authorizes the provision of lethal assistance and aid in energy and defense sectors, as well as civil society to the Ukrainian government and the imposing of a new round of economic sanctions against Russia." (Russian Sputnik News :19.12.2014) (my emphasis)

Coupled to this are the new sanctions that are being imposed by the EU, specifically "outlawing European investment in Crimea". These are far more modest than the sanction provisions contained in the bill that Obama signed.

Yet at the same time, the 'fragrant' Mogherini has stated that,

“The fact that Russia is in a difficult situation from a financial point of view is not good news, first of all for Russian citizens, but also it is not good news for Ukraine, it is not good for Europe or for the rest of the world,” Ms. Mogherini told reporters ahead of a summit meeting in Brussels of European leaders." (New York Times: Andrew Higgins: Dec. 18, 2014)

More than anything else, what these words of the 'fragrant' Mogherini conveys is that the current sanctions against Russia is a critical element in the demise of the Russian economy. As she herself says,

"Europe has no interest in aggravating financial turmoil in Russia, for which President Valdimir V. Putin blamed outside forces on Thursday [during his 3 hour long press conference] (ibid Andrew Higgins)

This is why,

"..President François Hollande of France said that if  “Russia sends the signals we expect” and curbs its support for armed rebels in eastern Ukraine, Europe should shift to a softer approach with Moscow." (ibid Andrew Higgins)

Yet Merkel, who spoke to her Russian counterpart by phone on Wednesday (17 Dec. 2014), noted that [Putin] has made many promises. But she said Russia continues to flout several items in the so-called Minsk peace plan and all she can do is “hope” that a recent ceasfire will hold.

"If the President of the Russian Federation, Putin, said about the territorial integrity of Ukraine [then] he must believe in the word", said German Chancellor Angela Merkel.
She said that the message of the President of Russia made during a recent phone conversations With the heads of Germany, France and Ukraine ( " channel format " ), RIA " Novosti." If he (President of Russia) said that [he] is committed to the territorial integrity of Ukraine, we must believe his word and work on it, " Merkel said after an EU summit in Brussels. (News RIN.ru: 19 December 2014)

How can Merkel say that we must believe the word of Putin when she also says that she has

"noted that [Putin] has made many promises. But she said Russia continues to flout several items in the so-called Minsk peace plan and all she can do is “hope” that a recent ceasfire will hold."?

History warns us that such "hope" can be very dangerous indeed. In this I am reminded of Neville Chamberlain who,

" .... amidst cheering crowds ..  brandished a piece of paper signed by German Chancellor Adolf Hitler which he assured the British people that he had brought 'peace with honor' guaranteeing 'peace in our time'. The date was September 30th, 1938.

Hitler promptly proceeded to [violate] the Munich Agreements and his assurances to Chamberlain by invading Czechoslovakia (March 1939), just as,

"Russia continues to flout several items in the so-called Minsk peace plan ....",

.... and this from the mouth of Merkel herself.

Has Merkel become the modern Neville Chamberlain?

There is, truly, nothing new under the sun.

(to be continued) 

Will Putin create an 'incident' to raise the price of oil?

Hardly has the meeting between the 'fragrant' Mogherini and Poroshenko reached the half-way stage than that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister of Putin, Lavrov, announces that,

"...he has serious reasons to believe that the United States is attempting to change [Putin's] regime and destabilize the situation in Russia with the help of sanctions." (Moscow, Dec. 16. :Tass)

Furthermore that, (and this IS the interesting bit)

"There will be no “second Crimea” in south-east Ukraine, but Crimea is Russian land, Lavrov stressed. Moscow unambiguously supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity, he added.
Degree of autonomy of Donetsk, Luhansk regions should be determined by Ukrainians, Russia does not offer federalization or autonomy, the foreign minister said." (ibid Tass)

What signal, exactly, is Lavrov sending out with these comments?

These comments are, not necessarily in order but , that:

• the US is seeking the 'overthrow' of Putin
• the US wants to destabilize Russia
• Crimea is Russian land
• south-east Ukraine is not a 'second' Crimea for Russia
• Russia does NOT want their proxy rebel-held territories in Donetsk and Lughansk to be 'autonomous' from, or 'federalized' within, Ukraine
• Moscow (Putin) unambiguously supports Ukraine's territorial integrity

It really is the last three points that signals a shift from the previous clamour of Putin about what the status of the rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine should be.

Thus it was that on August 27, 2014, Putin stated before his talks with Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko in Minsk, Belarus that,

".....Ukraine's government [must] begin negotiations [in Minsk] on the issues of statehood for the southeast of Ukraine...... according to an interview [that he had] with Russia's state TV Channel 1." (Michael B Kelley and Reuters: Aug. 31, 2014) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"Previously, Russia has only called for greater rights under a decentralized federal system for the regions claimed by separatists." (ibid Michael Kelly and Reuters) (my emphasis)

What we have here is a rather strange transformation from Putin's call for federalism in Ukraine, then his call for 'autonomous' statehood for the rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine, and now Lavrov speaks about 'no federalization' nor any 'autonomous statehood' for those same rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. This transformation has taken place over the space of 3 1/2 months! 

Is Putin beginning to loose his grip in the Kremlin? Are 'PANIC' cracks beginning to appear amongst his kleptocratic clan? (previous blog entry)

What is perhaps more illustrative of these 'panic' cracks appearing within Putin's kleptocratic clan is that Medvedev, who will go down in history as keeping the Russian presidential seat warm for Putin, is now trying to emerge as a growling Russian bear.

As reported by Peter Leonard,

"Russia looks intent to pile on the economic misery. In a detailed op-ed piece Monday, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev painted a grim forecast of Russian economic blockades ahead as Ukraine embarks on closer integration with Europe." (Yahoo News: December 15, 2014)

Yet, just as you thought that Putin was beginning to falter somewhat,


 "Stockholm: A Russian military jet nearly collided with a commercial passenger plane in international airspace near southern Sweden on Friday, the Swedish authorities said" (Johan Ahlander : Sydney Morning Herald: December 15, 2014)

These 'macho' postures of Putin and his 'sidekick' Medvedev are not only for the consumption of the West, but also for the Russian people. The Russian economy is 'tanking' and, somehow, Putin must create an incident which will stem the falling price of oil. This is more so because,

Abdalla el-Badri

"On Monday (15 December 2014), Opec officials reiterated their opposition to cutting production. Abdalla el-Badri, the Opec secretary general, said the group could manage an oil price slump without amending production. Suhail bin Mohammed al-Mazroui, oil minister of the United Arab Emirates, an Opec member, said there was no need for an emergency meeting of the cartel to help support prices." (Jennifer Rankin and Philip Inman : The Guardian: Tuesday 16 December 2014) (my emphasis)

 With all of this as the backdrop, the meeting between the Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko and the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini included the following confirmations viz.

" ..... that the EU paid top-priority attention to Ukraine. [Mogherini stated that,] "We can begin our work using the instruments that have emerged due to the Association Agreement and implement the reforms. We should continue our joint work just as we have ratified the Agreement." (Press Office of President Poroshenko 16.12.2014)

She also stated that, 

 " ...the EU would do everything,  for the Minsk agreements to be fulfilled." (ibid Press Office) (my emphasis)

This almost single-minded focus of the EU on Putin's Trojan Minsk agreement, especially by Merkel, Hollande, and Matteo Renzi (Germany, France, and Italy), does not seem to accept the fact that Putin himself has already relegated it to the political dustbin of history. It's only real diplomatic use is to expose Putin as someone who both lies internationally and simply does not keep his word.

It should also be borne in mind that Germany, France, and Italy have 'oodles' of money invested in Putin's Russia. Is this what is driving them to 'tip-toe' around Putin? Are Ukrainians to be sacrified on the alter of the Euro?

Yet again am I reminded of the words of Alexander Motyl. (CNN: July 25, 2014)

"Prosperous capitalist democracies, and especially prosperous capitalist democracies that are part of a self-styled community of values called the European Union, cannot take the easy way out and pretend values do not matter. In the final analysis, the willingness of France, Germany and all the other states making up the European Union to respond to Putin's evil doing will determine the moral fate of the EU. If they sacrifice morality to arms contracts or gas, the EU will have lost its rasion d'etre. Worse, like Putin, it will be without a soul." (my emphasis)

(to be continued)